VaranisArano wrote: »

Are you looking for an alternate history idea where this happened or an in-depth discussion of all the lore reasons why Keshu the Black Fin helped create the Pact and probably never even considered allying with High King Emeric or new-queen-on-the-block Ayrenn?

psychotrip wrote: »

LunaFlora wrote: »

aldmeri dominion's elsweyr is the closest to black marsh after morrowind.
plus there's an argonian village in grahtwood.

it seems realistic to me, the only area in the way is nibenay though they could always be connected through water as well.

though shadowfen has a few bad aldmeri dominion soldiers, the only people that would probably make it hard for some argonians to want to be in the AD.

daggerfall covenant is incredibly far away so that i find unrealistic

Why does being far away make it unrealistic? I dont think this is how alliances work? NATO countries arent all close together. The US has an alliance with Israel miles away. Is this just a product of modern history? I've never heard of this idea that military alliances have to be next to each other.

Wouldnt it be advantagous to have access to your enemy's doorstep? And to cut off trade and safe passage to an entire region?

That said, I do agree with your point that an alliancw with the AD is "possible". Maybe I dismissed it too quickly. I recall hearing some Altmer lady on Auridon (Firsthold perhaps?) talking smack about Argonians. But that could just be propaganda invented after they joined the pact to justify going to war with them.

I'm mostly focusing on the Covenant because they have a history of working with perceived "monsters" (orcs) and because I cant recall them ever being mean to the argonians before they joined the pact.

psychotrip wrote: »

VaranisArano wrote: »

Are you looking for an alternate history idea where this happened or an in-depth discussion of all the lore reasons why Keshu the Black Fin helped create the Pact and probably never even considered allying with High King Emeric or new-queen-on-the-block Ayrenn?

Mostly the former. You and I have discussed the latter intently. We will never see eye to eye on this, lol.

It will always be gross to me knowing Keshu stayed loyal to their former slavemasters, somehow not realizing the elves who literally worshiped a god of deceit for eons would betray them down the line. Not even considering an alliance with the other factions is moronic to me in light of this. No other faction has hurt the argonians more than Morrowind. If there were any other options available, it was stupid not to consider them.

The whole thing smacks of minimizing the unforgivable evil of enslavement, and implying that enslaved peoples are better off working with their own former slave masters (who clearly learned nothing as a people if their children and grandchildren are fine with enslaving them again), and are too stupid to realize they'll be betrayed. Obviously this wasnt the intent, but bad writing leads to bad implications.

Edit: before anyone makes real-life comparisons, I'm not saying you cant ever forgive the descendents of slave-masters. But they have to...you know...show that they, as a culture, have learned their lesson? Its clear that SOME of them learned, but its clear (to us at least) that the dunmer, on the whole, did not learn their lesson. In-universe, the signs of this are also clear, at least in my eyes.

If a culture is capable of reverting to chattel slavery after seeing constant proof that their former slaves are people, then not only did they not learn anything as a nation, but they seem even more evil because they dont have any excuses anymore.

psychotrip wrote: »

VaranisArano wrote: »

psychotrip wrote: »

VaranisArano wrote: »

Are you looking for an alternate history idea where this happened or an in-depth discussion of all the lore reasons why Keshu the Black Fin helped create the Pact and probably never even considered allying with High King Emeric or new-queen-on-the-block Ayrenn?

Mostly the former. You and I have discussed the latter intently. We will never see eye to eye on this, lol.

It will always be gross to me knowing Keshu stayed loyal to their former slavemasters, somehow not realizing the elves who literally worshiped a god of deceit for eons would betray them down the line. Not even considering an alliance with the other factions is moronic to me in light of this. No other faction has hurt the argonians more than Morrowind. If there were any other options available, it was stupid not to consider them.

The whole thing smacks of minimizing the unforgivable evil of enslavement, and implying that enslaved peoples are better off working with their own former slave masters (who clearly learned nothing as a people if their children and grandchildren are fine with enslaving them again), and are too stupid to realize they'll be betrayed. Obviously this wasnt the intent, but bad writing leads to bad implications.

Edit: before anyone makes real-life comparisons, I'm not saying you cant ever forgive the descendents of slave-masters. But they have to...you know...show that they, as a culture, have learned their lesson? Its clear that SOME of them learned, but its clear (to us at least) that the dunmer, on the whole, did not learn their lesson. In-universe, the signs of this are also clear, at least in my eyes.

If a culture is capable of reverting to chattel slavery after seeing constant proof that their former slaves are people, then not only did they not learn anything as a nation, but they seem even more evil because they dont have any excuses anymore.

Then I'll spare you the very long post on why, when Keshu agreed to form the Pact 10 years prior to ESO with the condition that the Tribunal would free the Argonians, she didn't join up with Emeric's Daggerfall Covenant. The Dominion didn't even exist yet.

Also, yes, the Dunmer are evil. (Was that in doubt?) And the unfortunate implications of Keshu's diplomatic solutions not working in the 2nd Era resulting in the 4th Era Saxheel invasion post-Red Year making sure the Dunmer weren't in a position to take slaves again were almost certainly intentional on the part of the writers. Accommodation does not usually work out well, historically. With the history of 3rd Era slavery set in stone, ESO had no choice but to do a downer ending to Keshu's ambitions.

...............

So let's talk alternate history.

The Argonians are not a monolith. Let me say that again: NOT a monolith. They are a tribal society where each tribe operates fairly independently under the guidance of their Hist Tree. A substantial coalition of tribes has united under Heita-Meen and Keshu the Black Fin with the goal of elevating Argonian society back to the level of building the xanmeers/nation-building again. A large number of tribes don't agree or don't care.

Therefore, for the purposes of alternate history (AH), we are primarily concerned with Keshu the Black Fin and her Black Fin Legion, seeing as how she is the premier Argonian commander and the only one with an organized military in Black Marsh. Since in ESO Keshu successfully led the Pact Army for ten years and in Cyrodiil, we can safely assume that she is the equal of any other alliance's Grand Warlord. That being said, she's not capable of ending the stalemate in Cyrodiil. Nor could she conquer the Dunmer Heartland and defend her homeland, seeing as how she has only the one army.

Canon

Sorry, gotta briefly discuss the Canon so we know where we're diverging.

Dunmer have been raiding, pillaging, and slave-taking along the border with Black Marsh. Though Keshu has the Black Fin Legion, raiding is difficult for an organized military to counter. Rather than engaging the Dunmer militarily, Keshu seeks a diplomatic solution by joining the Pact with the condition that the Tribunal will free the Argonians. This frees up the Black Fin Legion for other uses, notably in ESO where we see that the Pact is defending Shadowfen while Keshu and the Black Fin Legion defend Black Marsh's western border in Blackwood.

Point of Divergence

Lets play with a classic AH trope: the general who gets a vision of the bad future.

Keshu gets a vision from the Hist in which she sees that the tribes are not going to follow her example and thus are going to get rolled over by the Dunmer as soon as the Pact is over. So she jettisons Plan A and goes with Plan B: defend Black Marsh militarily herself.

(She cannot reasonably ask a foreign power in to guard the Shadowfen border. For one, you don't just invite in a foreign power - that's how you end up as a client state. For another, her Black Fin Legion is going to do a better job than anyone else.)

Her goals must be to defend Black Marsh, free what slaves she can in Dunmer territory, and find allies who can pressure the Dunmer.

Scenario #1: Alliance with the Nords

Keshu is friends with Jorunn, who becomes king during the Akaviri crisis. Once she decides to engage the Dunmer militarily rather than diplomatically, she offers him a military alliance to quash the Dunmer in between them following the explosion of the Akaviri.

Being as how this is AH, we'll say that Jorunn agrees (he probably wouldn't agree in canon, seeing as how Skyrim got hit hard by the Akaviri and he probably couldn't jump into another war so soon). The added pressure of having to guard their borders with Skyrim means that the Dunmer may not be able to raid Black Marsh.

Ramifications: With Keshu locked in a border war with the Dunmer, she's protecting her people along one front. However, when the Planemeld happens, she can't split her forces between Shadowfen and Blackwood, with the result that chaos from the Imperial Heartland spills on through into Southern Black Marsh. Especially if the war sets off the Sul-Xan tribe.

Scenario #2: Alliance with Duke Varen/Elder Council

Once Keshu engages the Dunmer militarily rather than diplomatically, she has to consider her other flanks. Cyrodiil is in a state of periodic unrest, so she seeks out the sources of stability: the Elder Council. She may be reluctant since Emperor Leovic has a bad reputation, but Emperor Varen almost certainly would've been amenable to an alliance...until the Planemeld.

Ramifications: Keshu probably gets drawn into the Cyrodiil conflicts anyway, where her Black Fin Legion plays (desired by some) 4th faction of otherwise unaligned players. Her goals are to support the legitimate authorities in Blackwood, since that's along her border. The real question is how the Dunmer and Nords react to both the Covenant and the Dominion declaring that they want the Ruby Throne and intend to reestablish a new empire with themselves at the head.

Scenario #3: Long distance alliance with the Covenant

The Covenant gets first crack because unlike the Dominion, they actually exist at the 2E 572. However, they pretty much exist in order to keep High King Emeric on the throne of Daggerfall, so they probably wouldn't have an ideological reason to care about Keshu.

However, in Canon 2E 573, Keshu would've fought raiders rumored to be funded by the Covanant (possibly even Covenant soldiers in disguise) and defeated them on behalf of the Pact. So we see that Emeric was possibly interested in interfering with the defensive Pact.

He'd probably have taken the opportunity offered by Keshu, but I strongly suspect that his support would've been limited to funds. Possibly some naval/privateer support once the Three Banners War started, and he would've expected Keshu to actively cut Dunmer supply lines to support his Stonefalls invasion.

Ramifications: being on the far side of the continent, Keshu and Emeric can do little to directly support each other's immediate goals. Additionally, an alliance with Emeric is a problem for her friend Jorunn, and eventually a problem for any Imperial allies.

Scenario #4: Alliance with the Dominion

This is the least likely, because the Dominion doesn't exist until 2E 580, by which point a smart Keshu has had other alliances for years. Also, Ayrenn is a young, untested Queen who's got a shaky grasp on her throne and her army. Keshu has more experience in her little finger than Ayrenn does.

While the Dominion would give Keshu a larger naval reach which is something she badly lacks, I think it's very unlikely that Keshu would seriously consider allying herself to Ayrenn's Dominion.

Scenario #5: a Unified Black Marsh

While we're playing around with AH, let's go whole hog and propose that Keshu and Vice-Canon Heita-Meen manage to convince more of the tribes and the Hist to support their cause. While in Canon, "you're going to be enslaved by raiding dunmer unless we do something different" was not sufficiently motivating for most tribes to sign up with an organized military, this time Keshu speaks with the authority of the Hist from her vision. The tribes listen.

Walks-In-Ash now commands this second Legion. She's not as good a commander as Keshu, but at least equal to General Tanval Indoril. This gives Keshu a second military force to guard another flank or deal with recalcitrant tribes.

Meanwhile, the newly militarized tribes start chewing up Dunmer raiding parties and spitting them out. The Dunmer shift to other sources of slaves (as we see them do in Stonefalls.)

Ramifications: realistically, Keshu is well set up to defend Black Marsh at this point. She probably can't overextend into an invasion of Morrowind though, especially when the Planemeld happens and throws much of Tamriel into chaos. However, she is well-placed to play support or spoiler for anyone invading Morrowind and probably makes quick strikes into their territory to free Argonian slaves.

..............................

Assessment

Now that I've written a huge post with ideas, let me tear them down a little. Because despite having these ideas for how the writers could've done it, I don't think they were dumb or wrong for choosing not to.

We can see how far the scenarios diverge from the Gameplay requirements of the MMORPG that the Devs and writers wanted to make. Fundamentally, this is a video game. If it doesn't work as a game, we don't get these stories.

Scenario #5 is certainly the most "feel good" of the AH scenarios. I kind of want to write a fanfic about it now... (Assuming that one thinks that radically transforming one's society militarily and ideologically to better defend oneself is an unalloyed good thing. Historically, it's complicated in both short and long term.)

However, from a story-telling perspective, #5 also the one that makes more sense in a TES X: Black Marsh, and not in a game centered around the whole continent. It's extremely Argonian-centric, which works really well in a single player game, and doesn't work in an MMORPG where you're going to have every race and faction be playable.

From the Loremaster's perspective, we can also see that Scenario #5 diverges from the isolated, tribal, and "go-with-the-flow" ideology that characterized ESO's take on the Argonians.

The Shaggy Dog Story

The principle conceit of Alternate History is that the future can change following the Point of Divergence.

However, the Elder Scrolls have future fixed points of canonicity in the 3rd and 4th Era.

Therefore, no matter what anyone did in ESO, the Loremaster and writers were bound by Canon to explain why the Argonians were enslaved throughout the 3rd Era, leading to TES 3 and the Saxheel invasion after Red Year.

Therefore, even if Keshu did pull off Scenario #5, the nascent nation of Black Marsh later got crushed back into the metaphorical
bedrock, its citizens put in chains, and Dunmer slave-raids continued under Imperial auspices for over four centuries.

I'll leave it to the reader to determine if that ending is better or worse than the end of the Pact in Canon.

Tl;dr: Keshu could've sought other alliances, but whether or not it'd be a better deal depends, and even in the best case scenario, the Argonians were doomed by TES 3 to centuries of enslavement. Yes, it sucks.

Anyways, it's been an interesting thought exercise, so thanks! Feel free to argue over the various scenarios as much as y'all like.

I'll add more to this later (at the gym) but I wanted to address this first. I cant just ignore this opening tidbit, lol:

"Then I'll spare you the very long post on why, when Keshu agreed to form the Pact 10 years prior to ESO"

As I've said to you many, many times, I'm not inherently against them joining when they had no other option.

I'm against them STAYING.

Your point about the other factions not being formed yet is odd to me. Alliances dont just form on their own. Are you saying Argonians are incapable of forging their own alliances? Why do the factions already need to exist for the argonians to engage in essential diplomacy to defeat their former slave-masters?

But either way, I want to emphasize again, my problem is with them STAYING allied with the dunmer any longee than they needed to for survival.

It was a bad, contrived writing decision so that each alliance would be next to each other, regardless of the context. It was written backwards. It has massively gross implications. It was obvious to anyone with a brain the dunmer would backstab them. The Argonians should've known to backstab them first.