From everything I've read, the drop rate is roughly 1 per 6-8 writs, but as with many other ESO features, it's randomised (i.e. not a fixed drop rate), so you've probably just been unlucky.

I still assume the "random" part in "random number generator" is heavily borked in ESO.
Like finding 3 nirncrux nodes within minutes, then again not finding any for days.
Or psijic portals often spawn at the same time.
The latter finding is quite easy to reproduce in Bal Foyen.

Abstraqt wrote: »

AcadianPaladin wrote: »

My jewelry surveys don't really seem out of line with the drop rate I'm seeing on other survey types.

Can I confirm im doing this right..

I go to the wooden board and pull off a writ

I then go and craft the 2 pewter necklaces or rings or whatever with no traits like it asks

Then I take it to the wooden box where I receive NO surveys, just random crafting bits?

I'm not missing a step am I because I feel like I'm going insane.

Not certain on the drop rate, but let's assume the 1 in 6/8 (1/7) chance is accurate.

That would mean that you have a 14% chance of getting 1 in each jewelry reward box. if you are doing 1 a day, you may get one within a week per character.

But, I think people tend to misunderstand how probabilities function. Just because you have a chance to get 1 every 7 days doesn't mean you will. You still have an 86% chance each day to not get 1. The more days, or jewelry writs you do, the more chances you have at earning a survey but it still isn't a guarantee.

So, for something with a 14% chance of dropping, you could theoretically never drop the item. Or, you could drop a survey 4 straight days. Even for something with a 99% chance to drop, you could still, however improbable, have 2 or 3 days where the item doesn't drop, and even more wildly improbable, that item could never drop. Because even a 99% chance to drop isn't a guarantee to drop in a set amount of tries.

Another example, if you flipped a coin and 10 times in a row it came up heads, it is still a 50% chance to come up heads or tails. That small sample size doesn't change the probabilities of it coming up heads or tails.

Dagoth_Rac wrote: »

The odds of no survey after 21 jewelry writs is about 1 in 16. Bad luck but not one-in-a-million bad luck or anything. If 10,000 people did 21 writs, about 605 people would get no surveys, so you would have roughly 604 people to keep you company.

There are ways to increase odds of gold tempers and master writs, but not surveys. They are always a 12.5% chance, regardless of character level, crafting level, passives, etc.

what can increase chance of gold tempers and master writs?