Why can't I get a jewelry survey to drop?

Abstraqt

I have done 21 writs and not one single survey has dropped! What on earth is the rng on this? Is there any way I can increase my chances of having a survey drop?

Dagoth_Rac

The odds of no survey after 21 jewelry writs is about 1 in 16. Bad luck but not one-in-a-million bad luck or anything. If 10,000 people did 21 writs, about 605 people would get no surveys, so you would have roughly 604 people to keep you company.

There are ways to increase odds of gold tempers and master writs, but not surveys. They are always a 12.5% chance, regardless of character level, crafting level, passives, etc.

ZOS_Icy

Greetings,

After further review we have decided to move this thread to a category we think is more appropriate for this topic.

Thank you for your understanding.

Abstraqt

ZOS_Icy wrote: »

Greetings,

After further review we have decided to move this thread to a category we think is more appropriate for this topic.

Thank you for your understanding.

Are you able to help with this? Is there a specific drop rate % on surveys?

Beilin_Balreis_Colcan

From everything I've read, the drop rate is roughly 1 per 6-8 writs, but as with many other ESO features, it's randomised (i.e. not a fixed drop rate), so you've probably just been unlucky.

AcadianPaladin

My jewelry surveys don't really seem out of line with the drop rate I'm seeing on other survey types.

Haenk

I still assume the "random" part in "random number generator" is heavily borked in ESO.
Like finding 3 nirncrux nodes within minutes, then again not finding any for days.
Or psijic portals often spawn at the same time.
The latter finding is quite easy to reproduce in Bal Foyen.

Abstraqt

AcadianPaladin wrote: »

My jewelry surveys don't really seem out of line with the drop rate I'm seeing on other survey types.

Can I confirm im doing this right..

I go to the wooden board and pull off a writ

I then go and craft the 2 pewter necklaces or rings or whatever with no traits like it asks

Then I take it to the wooden box where I receive NO surveys, just random crafting bits?

I'm not missing a step am I because I feel like I'm going insane.

jaws343

Abstraqt wrote: »

AcadianPaladin wrote: »

My jewelry surveys don't really seem out of line with the drop rate I'm seeing on other survey types.

Can I confirm im doing this right..

I go to the wooden board and pull off a writ

I then go and craft the 2 pewter necklaces or rings or whatever with no traits like it asks

Then I take it to the wooden box where I receive NO surveys, just random crafting bits?

I'm not missing a step am I because I feel like I'm going insane.

Not certain on the drop rate, but let's assume the 1 in 6/8 (1/7) chance is accurate.

That would mean that you have a 14% chance of getting 1 in each jewelry reward box. if you are doing 1 a day, you may get one within a week per character.

But, I think people tend to misunderstand how probabilities function. Just because you have a chance to get 1 every 7 days doesn't mean you will. You still have an 86% chance each day to not get 1. The more days, or jewelry writs you do, the more chances you have at earning a survey but it still isn't a guarantee.

So, for something with a 14% chance of dropping, you could theoretically never drop the item. Or, you could drop a survey 4 straight days. Even for something with a 99% chance to drop, you could still, however improbable, have 2 or 3 days where the item doesn't drop, and even more wildly improbable, that item could never drop. Because even a 99% chance to drop isn't a guarantee to drop in a set amount of tries.

Another example, if you flipped a coin and 10 times in a row it came up heads, it is still a 50% chance to come up heads or tails. That small sample size doesn't change the probabilities of it coming up heads or tails.

AcadianPaladin

Drop rate seems okay to me. I do one of each kind of writ (7) daily on one character, turning in a total of 7 writs. Typically I get about one master writ of random type from my 7 turn ins so that seems about normal. And it seems jewelry master writs drop at about the same rate as any of the other types. Any higher drop rate on jewelry master writs and I couldn't keep up on the stuff to improve jewelry to blue.

Ttree

I cant remember the last time i had one drop and i do 8 a day and today i did all my toons and 18 and nothing

M0ntie

I think you might have to be doing max level daily writs to get survey drops.

If you are making pewter items, then you need to level up jewelry, or put more skill points into it so that you are making platinum CP150 level rings and necklaces.

I get jewelry survey drops, but I've levelled all the crafting skill lines to max and I have a crafting armoury slot so I'm doing the max level daily writs.

Elrond87

Dagoth_Rac wrote: »

The odds of no survey after 21 jewelry writs is about 1 in 16. Bad luck but not one-in-a-million bad luck or anything. If 10,000 people did 21 writs, about 605 people would get no surveys, so you would have roughly 604 people to keep you company.

There are ways to increase odds of gold tempers and master writs, but not surveys. They are always a 12.5% chance, regardless of character level, crafting level, passives, etc.

what can increase chance of gold tempers and master writs?

sleepy_worm

M0ntie wrote: »

I think you might have to be doing max level daily writs to get survey drops.

This is not true.

Surveys have a 12.5% chance to drop from any non-provisioning daily writ reward.