100% chance of success, yet failure still seems to be an option.

Ojustaboo · May 2014

Rodario wrote: »

Ojustaboo wrote: »

With 80% you could do it 1000 times and it fail every time.

Each go is independent of the previous goes and each go you have that 20% chance of failing.

While true, that would be an anomaly. Just as it's possible to play the lottery 1000 times and win every time. It's just highly unlikely.

I totally agree.

But many people miss understand what say an 80% chance means, and they wrongly presume that it means it should only fail on average 1 in 5 times

Agobi · May 2014

clocksstoppe wrote: »

never failed for me. you guys are just impatient and dont look at the confirmation window. the bug where it resets the number of tempers is well known by now and you have no excuse for falling for it again and again.

I always love people with this argument

"It hasn't happened to me.Therefore you guys are all wrong,and it is infact not happening at all"

Way to go champ o.O

Ageless · May 2014

I found something today, happened to me three times in a row that I set up an ax to 100% improvement with honing stones and when I moved my mouse, that the value reset from 5 to 1 stone, thus 100% back to 20% chance.

I tried to make a video of it, but of course by the time I had Fraps running, it didn't want to play ball.

Anzaman · May 2014

Been playing since first Early Access day, all of my 100% chance upgrades has been successful.

Just remember to check the warning message that it actually says "100% chance."

crush83 · May 2014

I've found that if I pick 40%, I fail about 9/10 times. If I pick 60%, I success about 8/10 times. I've used probably 500 honing stones. I don't think the percentages are what they are advertised. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that you can fail at 100%, but since honing stones are so common, and I get such a good success rate at 60%, I never do 100% on them.

While it's true that 60% doesn't guarantee success 60% of the time, the higher the sample size, the closer to 60% that success rate should fall. I feel like 500 stones is a pretty good sized sample size. After that many stones, I should be approaching 60% success, but it's closer to 80% according to the spreadsheets I've been keeping.

Here's the other reason that in the long run, 60% is better (considering that ingots are plentiful). You are using half as many materials for that 60% chance. You use double the materials for only a 40% increased chance. In the long run, the 60% chance is going to get you more bang for your buck. (in fact, 40% might even be better if my spreadsheets didn't tell me that they fail about 90% of the time...)

Now, this only really applies to the first tier.

Oogaci · May 2014

I just attempted to improve some pieces for my first VR1 gear and had this happen to me.

I noticed that the UI constantly resets to 20% randomly on it's own after you choose 100%. I had to keep hitting the [+] key to adjust it back to 100% several times and cross my fingers that it didn't reset back to 20% when I clicked OK to craft it.

This really should be looked at. The UI should not be randomly resetting back to 20%, definitely a bug.

I literally watched it drop back to 20% a number of times.

Fyrakin · May 2014

As someone mentioned you just were in bad luck and the number of upgrade components dropped just before you hit upgrade, happened to me once, I was sure I clicked enough times to get 100 chance but when popped up it dropped down to 90 and it was too late to abort upgrade as I hit the confirmation. From my experience you will allways fail at any chance less than 100 starting from green to blue and so on improvements, don't waste materials and items.

Sev · May 2014

Ojustaboo wrote: »

But many people miss understand what say an 80% chance means, and they wrongly presume that it means it should only fail on average 1 in 5 times

But that's precisely what it does mean. The important point is the "on average". Any individual player is not guaranteed to get the average result.

If, however, it were possible to gather unbiased data from a large number of players and the result was substantially different to the expected average, it would suggest a bug.

Abigail · May 2014

I have had a woodworking failure at 100%.

I have tried only twice at 80% -- both failed. Never tried again after that. (Fool me once, shame on you; fool my twice, shame on me.)

Very early on I played an MMO that assigned a 'luck' factor to each account upon registration. Definitely hope this is not the case with ESO.

Menelaos · June 2014

Hi folks,
I wanted to revitalize this, because yesterday a piece of rather expensive blue armour went down the drain despite having a 100% chance of success. And yes, I made sure there were enough purple improvement items in the slot to really make it 100%.
I find this highly frustrating. Ticket underway.

SirAndy · June 2014

I've been crafting a *lot* and i never *once* had a 100% improvement fail when i made sure it actually said 100% right before i clicked the OK button.

Again, if you're improving multiple items, you have to manually set *each* one of them to 100%. The system does not remember correctly in-between items.

I have not had a single failure at 100% that way ...
;-)

bellanca6561n · June 2014

Although I've not had a failure at 100% I have had to relog due to the gump changing the percentage on me on its own.

I've also had too many failures at high percentages to believe that something isn't amiss specifically at percentages over 75. The fact that you actually have a better chance at 50 than at 90 leads me to believe there's a flaw somewhere.

My guess is that the calculation is not independent of skill level. It should probably reflect that.

Philosophically I've never played it straight. I've been developing online games since before they were on the internet and I've never used an actual random number generator - ever. It's bad design in my opinion.

If a customer fails at, say, 80% or higher what have I gained? I've added unexpected and needless friction and risk losing that customer. Play it straight on the low end, as the customer is expecting failure and is excited when they experience success. Skew it higher at the high end, making sure it fails rarely.

Mathematics is not an exemption from good design, meaning outcomes in accord with what reasonable customers reasonably expect. The use of actual statistical probability creates unexpected friction with no benefit to anyone.

ipkonfigcub18_ESO · June 2014

Keep a VERY close eye when upgrading your items. I have literally watched myself click the + sign up to 100% and watched it jump back down right as I was about to click Craft. This has happened several times to me. When that happens I do a /relouadui This is probably what's happening to you.

kitsinni · June 2014

I think when you are improving after clicking the + if you click anywhere else other than the craft button it resets it to 1.

Ekadzati · June 2014

I have had this happen twice to me now, both times I had the full load of boosters required and both times, a failure that winds up costing me:

- the mats to make the normal quality item/trait
- the mats to improve to green
- the mats to improve to blue
- the mats to improve to purple

I ticketed the first and bug reported the second.

If you have all the materials needed to achieve 100% success, YOU SHOULD NOT FAIL, PERIOD.

Things are stupidly overpriced to begin with, I'm not "rich" in this game, and I'm really sick of losing epic materials (not to mention the others) to this.

Syntse · June 2014

Ageless wrote: »

I found something today, happened to me three times in a row that I set up an ax to 100% improvement with honing stones and when I moved my mouse, that the value reset from 5 to 1 stone, thus 100% back to 20% chance.

I tried to make a video of it, but of course by the time I had Fraps running, it didn't want to play ball.

Something I noticed while upgrading yesterday was once the success reseted my worn gear and weapons flashed. I have a feeling that this happens if someone near you casts a buff spell or something. Gotta do my own investigation on that matter though.

Btw, NVidia shadowplay is very nice tool