Force lockpick with maxed out skill line.

flubber77 · July 2023

On simple chest i have 85% chance to force the lock open, that mean 15% chance to break the lockpick. I think you should turn this number arround cause i break the lockpick 6 times before i open it. This happens so often so i guess i have 15 to 20% chance on a simple, and for some odd reason this number gets higher with the difficulty on the chest but not near the given number i should have.

Anyone else have issues with this?
I have tried to hit R asap and tried to wait a few sec before i force with same resault.

Amottica · July 2023

Sample sizes need to be notably larger than what is presented here and with accurate record keeping to provide worthwhile information.

Soraka · July 2023

I don't tend to have that issue, but it's been a couple of months since I did this on my maxed force lock character so maybe something broke.

M_Volsung · July 2023

It's been my experience that waiting a few seconds before forcing it will give you better results...

I usually let the timer run down about halfway before hitting it.

flubber77 · July 2023

M_Volsung wrote: »

It's been my experience that waiting a few seconds before forcing it will give you better results...

I usually let the timer run down about halfway before hitting it.

I pick the lock faster than wait for so long. i normaly dont hunt for chest's but today i did need a lead from cheast i coldharbor and did open like 40 chest's and missed in general on 60% and funny part is that after i got the lead i did not break any picks so i dont get this. but 5 or 6 easy chests with 85% chance to force it open and all miss is not normal. i might just have bad rng for this also lol

_Zathras_ · July 2023

Amottica wrote: »

Sample sizes need to be notably larger than what is presented here and with accurate record keeping to provide worthwhile information.

This is a post in a gaming forum, not an article in Lancet.

flubber77 wrote: »

Anyone else have issues with this?

I don't force locks as a general practice because I find the break percentage to be too high. So I guess that backs up your experiences. The only time I force a lock, or make the attempt, is in a busy area with an advanced or master chest that I am itching to snag.

notyuu · July 2023

A few things of note
1: conformation bias is a thing, you tend to only notice when it fails rather than when it works

2: what you are describing falls within RNG, while I am not a dev so I don't know for sure how it works, rolling below 15 on a d100 6 times in a row is rather fesable

3: even if you manage to force the lock it still breaks the lockpick

Veryamedliel · July 2023

notyuu wrote: »

A few things of note
3: even if you manage to force the lock it still breaks the lockpick

Which bothers me more than failing to open the lock this way. At max lvl you should be competent enough to keep your pick alive. Or at the very least, way more often than it breaks.

Guess that's just 1 goldsink we'll never get rid of. Not that they are expensive or anything and you get enough opening random containers. Actually that's exactly why it's a useless goldsink and not worth picks breaking at max lvl. But that's just my opinion.

Dr_Con · July 2023

M_Volsung wrote: »

It's been my experience that waiting a few seconds before forcing it will give you better results...

I usually let the timer run down about halfway before hitting it.

this is the best advice you'll get on this topic. I don't know that force lock percentages are determined by a roll each time, but it may be that 15% of all 5 second clusters within an hour or minute are predetermined to fail, and perhaps they make this change daily or with each hour. Perhaps not. What it does do is simulate randomness, but it doesn't do it perfectly.

LannStone · July 2023

I've opened 1000s of chests over the years.
For me overall, forcing locks - even with a few breaks - is faster than opening the chests manually.
A few clicks and move along.
That's the main reason I leveled that skill line.

SeaGtGruff · July 2023

I do seem to break picks more often when trying to open simple locks, both manually and by forcing. I prefer to do it manually for the XP gain, but if I'm in a hurry because of the situation-- such as if I'm in the Imperial City-- then I'll force it. When doing it manually, sometimes I break 2 or 3 picks before I just give up and force the lock before the timer runs out.

VaranisArano · July 2023

OP, unless you're willing to force a bunch of chests and record all your results, I don't think we can help.

I will say that when somebody claimed a 50% failure rate on Overland Chests in March 2023, I did a 100(ish) simple chest spot-check of my previous sample size. I got an 80% success rate. Slightly less than the stated RNG, but since my Intermediate success rate was 90%, I think the discrepancy can be chalked up to a small sample size.

Moreover, that's reasonably close to my RNG from my 1000 simple chest sample in 2018 that found ESO's RNG was accurate. Both data sets can be found linked on this April thread about dungeon chests: https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/7855479#Comment_7855479

If you're opening Thieves Heists chests, however, you want to look at Rittings' data for force lock. There is a significant RNG difference between Heists and Overland chests: https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/390876/force-lock-percentage-is-incorrect-not-working-as-intended/p1

If you're actually getting 15-20% odds of success and routinely getting 6 failures on a lock, that should show up pretty starkly in the data you collect. For what it's worth, I literally just tally mark in a notebook next to me how many attempts each type of chest took, so it's nothing special.

_Zathras_ wrote: »

Amottica wrote: »

Sample sizes need to be notably larger than what is presented here and with accurate record keeping to provide worthwhile information.

This is a post in a gaming forum, not an article in Lancet.

It is a post in a gaming forum, yes, but without actual data to the contrary, how do you expect to prove a problem?

It's not impossible to get 6 failures on a simple chest. If it happens as often as the OP says, it should be easy to replicate in a reasonably small data set.

If the OP is actually getting a 15-20% success rate...like, holy cow, that should be really easy to prove over the course of forcing even 100 simple chests.

Grizzbeorn · July 2023

VaranisArano wrote: »

It's not impossible to get 6 failures on a simple chest. If it happens as often as the OP says, it should be easy to replicate in a reasonably small data set.

If the OP is actually getting a 15-20% success rate...like, holy cow, that should be really easy to prove over the course of forcing even 100 simple chests.

OP also stated that chest hunting isn't a regular aspect of their gaming time, so I think such results from someone who rarely goes after chests should be taken with a grain of salt. Their sample-size is always going to be small.

Stanx · July 2023

It's just sods law really. I've been running Coral Aerie for the lead and havent once failed the force the master lock, probably about 6-7 times now. I've attempted to open several simple chests in the same dungeon and failed probably 4 out of 10 of them.

I'm not saying this data is remotely useful but I can understand completely how it might create the illusion the % is wrong.

disintegr8 · July 2023

If I forced locks every time, I'd soon be buying lockpicks, RNG is too much of a pain. I've been playing for 8 years and only maxed out the line on 1 or 2 characters - if you've maxed out the skill line, simple locks should be 100% success.

Kiyakotari · July 2023

It's sad that I can pick a standard lock IRL (we're talking Kwikset and the like here, not ABUS) faster than most ESO locks. I find "Intermediate" the most difficult, "Advanced" the easiest. It's because the lower level locks, the pins move more slowly. It's not just the timer that's faster on the higher level ones.

DreamyLu · July 2023

I didn't know that more than 3 lockpicks broken in a row is possible: 3 lockpicks broken is the maximum I experience and it's rather rare.
My daily experience is 80% open on first try vs. 20% needing a 2nd lockpick and once in a blue moon, I need 4 lockpicks. Strangely, I can't recall the case of losing 2 lockpicks (opening on 3rd). For me that's either 1st, 2nd or 4th.

What is true however, is that usually, when I need 4 lockpicks for one chest, I then have the case once or twice on same day, like it would be a package!

OP's case sounds like very bad luck to me.

jtm1018 · July 2023

3-5x to force open master chest is always awesome. For me that is. Lockpicks is so effing cheap.

flubber77 · July 2023

jtm1018 wrote: »

3-5x to force open master chest is always awesome. For me that is. Lockpicks is so effing cheap.

Its not about cost of lockpicks.

freespirit · July 2023

It's a regular side conversation on guild trial runs.....

Forcing master locks, no problem, forcing simple locks, several broken lockpicks!

It seems to have been like this for ever, I often wonder if we just notice simple locks failing more because well they are supposed to be simple!! 🤣

redlink1979 · July 2023

Just rng. Don't worry too much.