Forced Lockpicking failure secretly increased?

Rogue_One · February 2023

About a month ago in the patch before the dragon event I noticed forced lockpicking was nerfed and it now fails half the time or more often than not. It used to fail very little.

This needs to be fixed and reverted back to what it was before the patch. And no its not RNG. The fails/behavior is consistent on both of my nightblades, and it was never like this before the patch.

Diebesgut · February 2023

... so it's not just me and i didn't imagine it 🤔

BejaProphet · February 2023

I have series of failures that are so statistically improbable given the “stated” chances.

VaranisArano · February 2023

Are you keeping track of your results?

Last time I checked was in 2018 with overland chests, and found that ZOS' percentages were accurate at the time. It also includes how many tries it took me. https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/413835/double-checking-zos-force-lock-percentages

However, I should note that the RNG on Thieves Guild Heist chests might be different than stated, since @Rittings has also collected data in the past and their data showed a discrepancy in the instanced chests. (The link to their thread is in mine linked above.)

I suppose I could spend hours double checking again, but I'd rather not unless those of you seeing this are seeing a difference in your recorded results.

OBJnoob · February 2023

I've always felt the lock picking mini game was pretty fun and never really tried to get around it personally.

In fact, during the Oakensoul Murkmire Strongbox fiasco, the way I finally got my lead to drop was off a box somebody else clicked first. It was a master chest, and they failed to force I think (based on how quickly they got kicked out,) resulting in me getting lucky after picking it the old fashioned way.

Don't think I'll ever force a lock after that.

RedFireDisco · February 2023

I swear the forced lockpicking chances is SIGNIFICANTLY less than the tool tip. It's the point where I laugh and predict that the 60% chance will cost me 5 lockpicks and then it invariably does.

It's always been way off. I routinely go through a dozen lockpicks to get a 60% chest and rarely ever get in less than 2.

Turtle_Bot · February 2023

I have noticed it seems to fail more often when forcing the lock pick lately, but I haven't really paid close enough attention to it in terms of recording actual success/failure rates so I couldn't really say definitively either way.

Necrotech_Master · February 2023

i mostly stopped forcing locks because of how much it eats lockpicks lol

you lose 1 lockpick regardless of success or fail when picking (making you use multiple lockpicks if you do fail)

its very hit or miss for me, a lot of times i fail only once or never with the force pick, but i have had unusual RNG (this happened like several years ago) but i failed forcing a simple lock 13x in a row lol