100% chance of success, yet failure still seems to be an option.

Rodario · May 2014

At least in blacksmithing, when improving an item and using enough honing stones for a hundred percent success chance, it still fails sometimes. This is simply not acceptable. As long as this is not fixed i will certainly not risk any dwarven oil or higher, I'm just glad i noticed this with honing stones. Imagine the value of mats lost if this happened at the legendary tier...

Before someone says there might be a decimal in there and bad rng luck, i currently have the 50% chance improvement skilled, so at 4 stones it should actually be 120% chance.

I know others have had this issue, but i can't find the discussion anymore and I don't think it got an official answer, so I made a new one. The devs need to take note of this.

jaytin44 · May 2014

I don't have points in the improved chance skill but I have never had a failure at 100%, yet. On the other hand I have failed EVERY SINGLE TIME I tried it at 80% and 9/10 times at 60%. My son has a 50/50 record on just 20% so I guess I am just very unlucky. $:\$

Pele · May 2014

I've had this happen to me as well. I fed it enough honing stones for 100% chance, yet I failed. I thought it was odd, so I tried again. Just before I hit confirmation to improve, it went from 100% to 20%. Each time I clicked it to 100%, it dropped to 20% all on its own.

I don't know what caused it to reset itself, but I'm glad I noticed before trying again.

Rodario · May 2014

Pele wrote: »

I've had this happen to me as well. I fed it enough honing stones for 100% chance, yet I failed. I thought it was odd, so I tried again. Just before I hit confirmation to improve, it went from 100% to 20%. Each time I clicked it to 100%, it dropped to 20% all on its own.

I don't know what caused it to reset itself, but I'm glad I noticed before trying again.

I'll look out for that, thanks. I'm pretty sure though it still showed 100% when I hit R the last two times it failed.

LadyDestiny · May 2014

Definitely needs some improving, I mean seriously as dificult as it is to get these components and as many as we need for constructing one piece of armor it should guaranteed at 100%. I also feel that when it destroys in the process we should get some materials back. Now that they have decreased loot and spawn timers it is making it a real pain.

7Montana7 · May 2014

I've failed at 100% too (actually 38*3=114).
If there is a chance to fail, it shouldn't say 100%

Carnage2K4 · May 2014

Rodario wrote: »

At least in blacksmithing, when improving an item and using enough honing stones for a hundred percent success chance, it still fails sometimes. This is simply not acceptable. As long as this is not fixed i will certainly not risk any dwarven oil or higher, I'm just glad i noticed this with honing stones. Imagine the value of mats lost if this happened at the legendary tier...

Before someone says there might be a decimal in there and bad rng luck, i currently have the 50% chance improvement skilled, so at 4 stones it should actually be 120% chance.

I know others have had this issue, but i can't find the discussion anymore and I don't think it got an official answer, so I made a new one. The devs need to take note of this.

Yep... No final answer... Devs never say if it's know or in the to fix list... Because why bother communicating when you can just not bother...

http://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/discussion/85711/100-chance-fail

Known issues list is *** poor... There are more issues then bots and quests... Do the devs care... Who *** knows... They don't tell us anything, worst dev comms I have ever seen in resent years.

beeriod · May 2014

Pay close Attention to the 100% tool tip I have improved items and when I add the stones or other ingredients to make it 100% I notice that it suddenly drops back down to only using 1 item, like it has reset it self. i have seen it do this so many times and the usual log in/out fixes it but now I'm extra careful when i use anything above "green " value. I assume this is a a bug. I did report like 2 weeks ago but got no response
Sorry just noticed someone has already spotted this and mentioned above

Carnage2K4 · May 2014

beeriod wrote: »

Pay close Attention to the 100% tool tip I have improved items and when I add the stones or other ingredients to make it 100% I notice that it suddenly drops back down to only using 1 item, like it has reset it self. i have seen it do this so many times and the usual log in/out fixes it but now I'm extra careful when i use anything above "green " value. I assume this is a a bug. I did report like 2 weeks ago but got no response
Sorry just noticed someone has already spotted this and mentioned above

Yeah, this is not the issue... IF it dropped back down just before use, 4-5 of the material would not be missing...

Soliduparrow · May 2014

So many things involving percentages in this game are broken. I think the ESO team should take a week off and do a refresher course on maths. Most community colleges have a remedial math class to get students caught up on the basics. That is something that won't cost too much and would be worth it for the future of the game.

Jim_McMasterub17_ESO · May 2014

Agreed, happened to me twice now. Bug reported both times.

"80%" doesn't seem to mean 80% either imo...

Ojustaboo · May 2014

With 80% you could do it 1000 times and it fail every time.

Each go is independent of the previous goes and each go you have that 20% chance of failing.

sylviermoone · May 2014

I've noticed when improving armor that 100% can still fail. I've actually had more fails on 100% thanI have on 80%.

I agree that if it's listed as 100%, then it should not fail. I'm also OK with never being able to *actually* hit 100%, but this should be reflected (it should say 98% or whatever).

Personally, I just never take it past 80%, as my fail rate seems to be 1/5 there; which is precisely where it should be.

Blackwidow · May 2014

I had this issue with cloth armor when upgrading to green. I had 100%. I too had the point to make it easier, so maybe that is where the bug lies.

Traisa · May 2014

I also noticed when crafting cloth that I failed to improve, even tough I had 5 hemming in the slot. But when I looked in my inventory, I still had 4 hemming left, so I'm pretty sure that it reset somehow like others have mentioned. Ever since that happened, I double check to make sure there is 5 hemming at 100% before hitting the button!

KhajiitiLizard · May 2014

I always check the window that pops up before I improve something. I always make sure it says 100% in that window before attempting to improve. All of the times I have failed to improve something was because of the bug that sets the honing/oil/whatever back to 1 and I didn't check the pop-up window.

PVT_Parts · May 2014

As some people said in my comment about how 100 armor(V10 Girdle for instance) + 4% increase trait=103 armor(fail) It is "MMO math", so really you are getting a 99.5% chance to succeed and you keep failing because of the lie. JK this is sarcasm because it makes about as much sense as the armor statement on my thread. All the percentages in the entire game are messed up. Next time you get anything that has % check the states, 2 weapons that add 3% crit chance...crit chance is only 5%. Armor with 4% increase is always missing armor. Perks that increase your stamina or health etc are always too low. All percentages seem to be off.

Rodario · May 2014

Ojustaboo wrote: »

With 80% you could do it 1000 times and it fail every time.

Each go is independent of the previous goes and each go you have that 20% chance of failing.

While true, that would be an anomaly. Just as it's possible to play the lottery 1000 times and win every time. It's just highly unlikely.

Rodario · May 2014

PVT_Parts wrote: »

As some people said in my comment about how 100 armor(V10 Girdle for instance) + 4% increase trait=103 armor(fail) It is "MMO math", so really you are getting a 99.5% chance to succeed and you keep failing because of the lie. JK this is sarcasm because it makes about as much sense as the armor statement on my thread. All the percentages in the entire game are messed up. Next time you get anything that has % check the states, 2 weapons that add 3% crit chance...crit chance is only 5%. Armor with 4% increase is always missing armor. Perks that increase your stamina or health etc are always too low. All percentages seem to be off.

I suspected as much with skills where t1 gives you 40 something and 3% and t2 80 something and 5%. T1 is actually 2.5% here. Or 2.7 for all we know.

I'm talking about 120% actually being below 100 and that's just no rounding issue. Unless they used MROUND(...;60).

Rodario · May 2014

Carnage2K4 wrote: »

beeriod wrote: »

Pay close Attention to the 100% tool tip I have improved items and when I add the stones or other ingredients to make it 100% I notice that it suddenly drops back down to only using 1 item, like it has reset it self. i have seen it do this so many times and the usual log in/out fixes it but now I'm extra careful when i use anything above "green " value. I assume this is a a bug. I did report like 2 weeks ago but got no response
Sorry just noticed someone has already spotted this and mentioned above

Yeah, this is not the issue... IF it dropped back down just before use, 4-5 of the material would not be missing...

Correct. Or it could be two coexisting/intertwined bugs, i.e. sometimes one, sometimes the other, or it drops to 20% but still uses all mats.

Heishi · May 2014

I suspect the equation driving the calculation is like a calculus parabola (might be wrong example) where the curve gets infinitely close to a point but never touches it. With typical programming rounding for whole numbers this is likely 99% success.

On the other hand maybe it's more elaborate like in Pokemon with the master ball fail rate (yes the master balls can fail to catch a pokemon at a very slim chance)

Grygnak · May 2014

I always looked at it as 100% chance to fail 20% of the time.

clocksstoppe · May 2014

never failed for me. you guys are just impatient and dont look at the confirmation window. the bug where it resets the number of tempers is well known by now and you have no excuse for falling for it again and again.

Taleof2Cities · May 2014

This is Sheogorath's bidding ... I just know it ...

Rodario · May 2014

clocksstoppe wrote: »

never failed for me. you guys are just impatient and dont look at the confirmation window. the bug where it resets the number of tempers is well known by now and you have no excuse for falling for it again and again.

Please display patience and read all the comments. Especially the ones referring to all mats being used.

Heishi · May 2014

clocksstoppe wrote: »

never failed for me. you guys are just impatient and dont look at the confirmation window. the bug where it resets the number of tempers is well known by now and you have no excuse for falling for it again and again.

I have actually seen this happen. I'm adding tempers and getting ready to click/hit the button and the screen flickers a moment and the number of tempers resets. This is why I make sure to read everytime to make sure when it gives the warning, it shows 100% (or whatever I'm doing)

Jim_McMasterub17_ESO · May 2014

clocksstoppe wrote: »

never failed for me. you guys are just impatient and dont look at the confirmation window. the bug where it resets the number of tempers is well known by now and you have no excuse for falling for it again and again.

Typical reply from an ESO forum user.

starkerealm · May 2014

PVT_Parts wrote: »

As some people said in my comment about how 100 armor(V10 Girdle for instance) + 4% increase trait=103 armor(fail) It is "MMO math", so really you are getting a 99.5% chance to succeed and you keep failing because of the lie. JK this is sarcasm because it makes about as much sense as the armor statement on my thread. All the percentages in the entire game are messed up. Next time you get anything that has % check the states, 2 weapons that add 3% crit chance...crit chance is only 5%. Armor with 4% increase is always missing armor. Perks that increase your stamina or health etc are always too low. All percentages seem to be off.

No, because the numbers you were seeing synced up with an armor rating of 99.5, all of them did. This however, is something entirely different. In this case, additional crafting items don't seem to actually stack and improve the chance to craft, when they're supposed to. If the 100% chance thing was really a fraction of that, like 99.5% as you suggest, you'd see each piece as giving a 24% buff, when you added 2 together you'd see 48%, three would give 72%, and then suddenly 4 would give you 100%, but not really. You'd also see (roughly) 995 successes per 1000 attempts.

No, the chance is simply adding percentages together, so you can see when you should hit 100%, and as someone else pointed out, this happens when they should have a 120% chance, which is well over the margin for any potential rounding error.

Source: I actually understand how math works.

clees42 · May 2014

im betting that its intented to be always less than 100% change.

starkerealm · May 2014

clees42 wrote: »

im betting that its intented to be always less than 100% change.

We don't have a great sample base, but my bet is that it's not adding the modifiers together properly. Part of me wonders if it's actually multiplying the percentages against each other before modifying the percent chance, and then displaying an additive modifier... or they just don't stack... that could happen too. Someone coded it to check for the maximum modifier and not adding them together.

Ageless · May 2014

I've had it happen to me once, when doing a row of same weapons upgrading, that the 4th weapon was deemed to be a failure at 100%. Yes, the upgrade window was still at 100%, and the honing stones I used were gone after the failure.

I have learned from the experience, and will these days first try to upgrade the weapon, before I add an expensive enchantment.