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Survey RNG

blueyonder
blueyonder
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Hi and I am wondering whether anyone else has had a difference in materials survey RNG from crafting writs in the past week or so. I am used to getting 5-8 surveys from my 8 material writ crafters a day (fyi only 3 of which are level 50 jewelry crafters) but over the past week or 2 I have only gotten 2-3 surveys a day. I depend on it for my gold income, my sales at guildstores took a 400K dive this week. Has anyone else had this issue? Probably just a string of bad RNG for me but I am used to getting a lot more surveys. So many in fact that sometimes I get tired of chasing them, LOL. Cheers
BLOOD FOR THE PACT
  • Yoma73
    Yoma73
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    Same here, the survey drop rate has gone down drastically.
    Edited by Yoma73 on October 20, 2021 1:57AM
  • wolfie1.0.
    wolfie1.0.
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    RNG is RNG. As tmbanks has said. Humans have a tendency to makr positive outcomes better in our minds and make negative outcomes worse.

  • deejayvee
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    It feels to me that it is less than 1 in 8. But at the end of the week I seem to have a good amount most weeks. You need a large sample size and accurate numbers to be sure there's a problem.

    I do find that Mondays and Tuesdays seem to drop the least amount of surveys, but yeah, it's probably my imagination
    PC - NA
    I'm Interested in Apathy - Breton Magicka Templar PVP
    I'll Ave Ya - Imperial Stamina Dragonknight PVP
    Saturday Night Palsy - Dunmer Magicka Sorceror DPS
    Fatboy Slim Dusty - Orc Werewolf Stamina Sorceror DPS
    I Drive a Truck - Breton Magicka Warden PVP Healer
    Forty Years Then Death - Imperial Stamina Warden DPS
    Jung Talent Time - Dunmer Magicka Dragonknight DPS
    Cerebral Knieval - Breton Magicka Necromancer PVP
    Schoolies Week - Khajiit Magicka Nightblade DPS
    Death Death Death - Khajiit Stamina Nightblade PVP
    Five Yards - Imperial Stamina Sorceror PVP
    Great Trucking Songs - Imperial Stamina Dragonknight PVP
    Get Thee To A Nunnery - Altmer Vampire Magicka Sorceror DPS
    De Rigueurmortis - Argonian Stamina Necromancer Tank
    Whatareya - Khajiit Stamina Templar PVP
    Dumb N Base - Dunmer Stamina Necromancer PVP
    Where's the Venga Bus - Orc Stamina Warden PVP


  • tmbrinks
    tmbrinks
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    deejayvee wrote: »
    It feels to me that it is less than 1 in 8. But at the end of the week I seem to have a good amount most weeks. You need a large sample size and accurate numbers to be sure there's a problem.

    I do find that Mondays and Tuesdays seem to drop the least amount of surveys, but yeah, it's probably my imagination

    Thank God I have that large sample size :wink: (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504
    Godslayer - Dawnbringer - Gryphon Heart - Tick Tock Tormenter - Immortal Redeemer - Dro-m'Athra Destroyer
    The Unchained - Fist of Tava - Invader's Bane - Land, Air, and Sea Supremacy - Zero Regrets - Battlespire's Best - Bastion Breaker - Ardent Bibliophile - Subterranean Smasher - Bane of Thorns - True Genius - In Defiance of Death - No Rest for the Wicked - Nature's Wrath - Undying Endurance - Relentless Raider - Depths Defier - Apex Predator - Pure Lunacy - Mountain God - Leave No Bone Unbroken - CoS/RoM/BF/FH Challenger
    52,860 achievement points
  • deejayvee
    deejayvee
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    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Thank God I have that large sample size :wink: (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)

    That is awesome! I always think about doing something like that but can't be bothered.

    Seems like your percentages for surveys is about spot on for 1 in 8. Thanks for sharing!

    PC - NA
    I'm Interested in Apathy - Breton Magicka Templar PVP
    I'll Ave Ya - Imperial Stamina Dragonknight PVP
    Saturday Night Palsy - Dunmer Magicka Sorceror DPS
    Fatboy Slim Dusty - Orc Werewolf Stamina Sorceror DPS
    I Drive a Truck - Breton Magicka Warden PVP Healer
    Forty Years Then Death - Imperial Stamina Warden DPS
    Jung Talent Time - Dunmer Magicka Dragonknight DPS
    Cerebral Knieval - Breton Magicka Necromancer PVP
    Schoolies Week - Khajiit Magicka Nightblade DPS
    Death Death Death - Khajiit Stamina Nightblade PVP
    Five Yards - Imperial Stamina Sorceror PVP
    Great Trucking Songs - Imperial Stamina Dragonknight PVP
    Get Thee To A Nunnery - Altmer Vampire Magicka Sorceror DPS
    De Rigueurmortis - Argonian Stamina Necromancer Tank
    Whatareya - Khajiit Stamina Templar PVP
    Dumb N Base - Dunmer Stamina Necromancer PVP
    Where's the Venga Bus - Orc Stamina Warden PVP


  • Yoma73
    Yoma73
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    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Thank God I have that large sample size :wink: (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

    Last updated 01/08/2021

    How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

  • tmbrinks
    tmbrinks
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    Yoma73 wrote: »
    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Thank God I have that large sample size :wink: (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

    Last updated 01/08/2021

    How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

    I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.

    eBxY9RW.jpg

    Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

    Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

    Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...
    Edited by tmbrinks on October 20, 2021 2:12AM
    Godslayer - Dawnbringer - Gryphon Heart - Tick Tock Tormenter - Immortal Redeemer - Dro-m'Athra Destroyer
    The Unchained - Fist of Tava - Invader's Bane - Land, Air, and Sea Supremacy - Zero Regrets - Battlespire's Best - Bastion Breaker - Ardent Bibliophile - Subterranean Smasher - Bane of Thorns - True Genius - In Defiance of Death - No Rest for the Wicked - Nature's Wrath - Undying Endurance - Relentless Raider - Depths Defier - Apex Predator - Pure Lunacy - Mountain God - Leave No Bone Unbroken - CoS/RoM/BF/FH Challenger
    52,860 achievement points
  • Disturbed_One
    Disturbed_One
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    Yoma73 wrote: »
    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Thank God I have that large sample size :wink: (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

    Last updated 01/08/2021

    How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

    Please show and share your data..

    tmbrinks is quite possibly the king of writ data here and has been sharing it openly for years in the forums. I trust their analysis over virtually anybody else here, especially somebody who only has an anecdotal statement.
  • blueyonder
    blueyonder
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    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Yoma73 wrote: »
    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Thank God I have that large sample size :wink: (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

    Last updated 01/08/2021

    How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

    I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.

    eBxY9RW.jpg

    Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

    Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

    Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

    So at this point your available data cannot answer my question! Understood, thanks for that!
    BLOOD FOR THE PACT
  • blueyonder
    blueyonder
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    RNG is RNG. As tmbanks has said. Humans have a tendency to makr positive outcomes better in our minds and make negative outcomes worse.

    Yeah like I said in my OP probably just bad RNG! I made it up, OK got it, thanks for the info bestie!
    BLOOD FOR THE PACT
  • tmbrinks
    tmbrinks
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    blueyonder wrote: »
    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Yoma73 wrote: »
    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Thank God I have that large sample size :wink: (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

    Last updated 01/08/2021

    How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

    I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.

    eBxY9RW.jpg

    Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

    Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

    Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

    So at this point your available data cannot answer my question! Understood, thanks for that!

    If the rate did plummet like you suggest, then the Waking Flame data would be showing a dip in the drop rate. It isn't.

    Trust me when I say there are plenty of people who do writs on 18, 36, 54 characters a day... and if there was a change in drop rate, they have the sample size to see that and these forums would be blowing up (like they were when there was a bug on Elsweyr release where accounts that didn't have Elsweyr were not getting BS/WW/Cloth surveys and those w/ Elsweyr were getting double of them).

    I've openly shared my data and that spreadsheet with regular updates for years now. If you choose to not accept it, that's fine. But please come with something other than anecdotal evidence. ZoS wouldn't take it as proof of a change, many of us don't here.
    Godslayer - Dawnbringer - Gryphon Heart - Tick Tock Tormenter - Immortal Redeemer - Dro-m'Athra Destroyer
    The Unchained - Fist of Tava - Invader's Bane - Land, Air, and Sea Supremacy - Zero Regrets - Battlespire's Best - Bastion Breaker - Ardent Bibliophile - Subterranean Smasher - Bane of Thorns - True Genius - In Defiance of Death - No Rest for the Wicked - Nature's Wrath - Undying Endurance - Relentless Raider - Depths Defier - Apex Predator - Pure Lunacy - Mountain God - Leave No Bone Unbroken - CoS/RoM/BF/FH Challenger
    52,860 achievement points
  • wolfie1.0.
    wolfie1.0.
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    blueyonder wrote: »
    RNG is RNG. As tmbanks has said. Humans have a tendency to makr positive outcomes better in our minds and make negative outcomes worse.

    Yeah like I said in my OP probably just bad RNG! I made it up, OK got it, thanks for the info bestie!

    Sorry, did not mean to insult, and so I apologize.
  • wolfie1.0.
    wolfie1.0.
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    tmbrinks wrote: »
    blueyonder wrote: »
    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Yoma73 wrote: »
    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Thank God I have that large sample size :wink: (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

    Last updated 01/08/2021

    How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

    I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.

    eBxY9RW.jpg

    Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

    Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

    Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

    So at this point your available data cannot answer my question! Understood, thanks for that!

    If the rate did plummet like you suggest, then the Waking Flame data would be showing a dip in the drop rate. It isn't.

    Trust me when I say there are plenty of people who do writs on 18, 36, 54 characters a day... and if there was a change in drop rate, they have the sample size to see that and these forums would be blowing up (like they were when there was a bug on Elsweyr release where accounts that didn't have Elsweyr were not getting BS/WW/Cloth surveys and those w/ Elsweyr were getting double of them).

    I've openly shared my data and that spreadsheet with regular updates for years now. If you choose to not accept it, that's fine. But please come with something other than anecdotal evidence. ZoS wouldn't take it as proof of a change, many of us don't here.

    While I don't share my data, I do writs on between 36 to 84 characters a day and I track it, it's just not as neat and detailed as what tmbanks has done. If something major changed I would have noticed.
  • redlink1979
    redlink1979
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    Rng OP, just rng...
    "Sweet Mother, sweet Mother, send your child unto me, for the sins of the unworthy must be baptized in blood and fear"

    Sons of the Night Mother [PS5][EU] 2000 CP
    Daggerfall's Mightiest [PS5][NA] 1650 CP
    SweetTrolls [PC][EU] 1715 CP
    Bacon Rats [PC][NA] 1535 CP
  • SidraWillowsky
    SidraWillowsky
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    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Yoma73 wrote: »
    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Thank God I have that large sample size :wink: (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

    Last updated 01/08/2021

    How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

    I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.

    eBxY9RW.jpg

    Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

    Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

    Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

    Do you happen to have daily data on survey drops available? I mean, I know you have it somewhere, but is it something I could take a look at? I'm a statistician and am mostly just interested in playing around with it.
  • tmbrinks
    tmbrinks
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    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Yoma73 wrote: »
    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Thank God I have that large sample size :wink: (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

    Last updated 01/08/2021

    How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

    I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.

    eBxY9RW.jpg

    Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

    Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

    Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

    Do you happen to have daily data on survey drops available? I mean, I know you have it somewhere, but is it something I could take a look at? I'm a statistician and am mostly just interested in playing around with it.

    I do not have it broken down by day. I use Dolgubon's Lazy Writ Crafter's built-in tracking that he added in to get the combined data for each patch. Typing /outputwritstats will pop up a window that shows you. I've simply pulled that information and put it into the tables for analysis. I started very briefly tabulating it day by day, but once I learned that the add-on was collecting that data for me, I decided that the time spent to tabulate it for each individual day wasn't worth the additional information I would have gotten

    While I agree that having that data could provide some meaningful insights into anything that's happening, I think the day-by-day sample sizes are on the small size (18-36 for most days), that I decided to look at the bigger picture of a patch-by-patch analysis (and then an overall analysis). I wish I knew more about programming and writing LUA files (or if it's possible) to have it output the data each day and then running a program to capture that data and have day by day information, but that's not something that I've seen (or know if it's even possible to do within the add-on constraints).
    Godslayer - Dawnbringer - Gryphon Heart - Tick Tock Tormenter - Immortal Redeemer - Dro-m'Athra Destroyer
    The Unchained - Fist of Tava - Invader's Bane - Land, Air, and Sea Supremacy - Zero Regrets - Battlespire's Best - Bastion Breaker - Ardent Bibliophile - Subterranean Smasher - Bane of Thorns - True Genius - In Defiance of Death - No Rest for the Wicked - Nature's Wrath - Undying Endurance - Relentless Raider - Depths Defier - Apex Predator - Pure Lunacy - Mountain God - Leave No Bone Unbroken - CoS/RoM/BF/FH Challenger
    52,860 achievement points
  • I_killed_Vivec
    I_killed_Vivec
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    tmbrinks wrote: »
    blueyonder wrote: »
    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Yoma73 wrote: »
    tmbrinks wrote: »
    Thank God I have that large sample size :wink: (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

    Last updated 01/08/2021

    How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

    I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.

    eBxY9RW.jpg

    Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

    Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

    Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

    So at this point your available data cannot answer my question! Understood, thanks for that!

    If the rate did plummet like you suggest, then the Waking Flame data would be showing a dip in the drop rate. It isn't.

    Trust me when I say there are plenty of people who do writs on 18, 36, 54 characters a day... and if there was a change in drop rate, they have the sample size to see that and these forums would be blowing up (like they were when there was a bug on Elsweyr release where accounts that didn't have Elsweyr were not getting BS/WW/Cloth surveys and those w/ Elsweyr were getting double of them).

    I've openly shared my data and that spreadsheet with regular updates for years now. If you choose to not accept it, that's fine. But please come with something other than anecdotal evidence. ZoS wouldn't take it as proof of a change, many of us don't here.

    While I don't share my data, I do writs on between 36 to 84 characters a day and I track it, it's just not as neat and detailed as what tmbanks has done. If something major changed I would have noticed.

    :o

    36-84?!

    Congratulations! I do 10 a day and that's enough for me.

    I don't collect stats but in general my feeling is "Sometimes I get more, sometimes I get less, on the whole I do OK" and that's just the way it is. My slice of the RNG can never be indicative of RNG evened up over the whole game.

    I remember when the ambrosia fragments were introduced and people complained about getting only a couple a week, down from 4 or 5... I didn't know what they were talking about, it was six months before I saw my first fragment! You can't just look at RNG applying to one person and try to make a judgement based on individual experience.

    Though I haven't seen many potent nirncrux recently... ;)
  • Rory_FightingToFifty
    I spent a long time doing 14 character per day, but didn’t feel I had time to track them all. I mean…a thousand hours of work for someone to look at my chart and go “hmm”. Lol.

    Observationally, the game RNG has never felt truly random. At first, my friend and I wondered if the game might have a traffic control mechanism - more players online leant more rewards overall, but less per player. However, over time it became clear that ESO is nowhere near that sophisticated. It might have traffic controls to prevent flooding the market, but we feel the weird RNG moments are like most things in the game that are weird - bad programming.

    Zos always chooses the bargain basement option over investing in the game, which might actually be the most profitable strategy. But it’s also why no one in the game is intently seeking anything in particular which probably affects player spending on the game.
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