Survey RNG

molyforest

Hi and I am wondering whether anyone else has had a difference in materials survey RNG from crafting writs in the past week or so. I am used to getting 5-8 surveys from my 8 material writ crafters a day (fyi only 3 of which are level 50 jewelry crafters) but over the past week or 2 I have only gotten 2-3 surveys a day. I depend on it for my gold income, my sales at guildstores took a 400K dive this week. Has anyone else had this issue? Probably just a string of bad RNG for me but I am used to getting a lot more surveys. So many in fact that sometimes I get tired of chasing them, LOL. Cheers

Yoma73

Same here, the survey drop rate has gone down drastically.

tmbrinks

You should expect to get 1 in 8. So 8 characters, doing the 6 that give surveys, would net an average of 6 surveys a day.

Your 2-3 is just as "poor" of luck as your 8 previous was "good" luck.

Law of large numbers, reversion to the mean, etc.. Human nature to remember only negative events.

It's just RNG.

wolfie1.0.

RNG is RNG. As tmbanks has said. Humans have a tendency to makr positive outcomes better in our minds and make negative outcomes worse.

deejayvee

It feels to me that it is less than 1 in 8. But at the end of the week I seem to have a good amount most weeks. You need a large sample size and accurate numbers to be sure there's a problem.

I do find that Mondays and Tuesdays seem to drop the least amount of surveys, but yeah, it's probably my imagination

tmbrinks

deejayvee wrote: »

It feels to me that it is less than 1 in 8. But at the end of the week I seem to have a good amount most weeks. You need a large sample size and accurate numbers to be sure there's a problem.

I do find that Mondays and Tuesdays seem to drop the least amount of surveys, but yeah, it's probably my imagination

Thank God I have that large sample size (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

deejayvee

tmbrinks wrote: »

Thank God I have that large sample size (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)

That is awesome! I always think about doing something like that but can't be bothered.

Seems like your percentages for surveys is about spot on for 1 in 8. Thanks for sharing!

Yoma73

tmbrinks wrote: »

Thank God I have that large sample size (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

Last updated 01/08/2021

How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

tmbrinks

Yoma73 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Thank God I have that large sample size (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

Last updated 01/08/2021

How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.



Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

Disturbed_One

Yoma73 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Thank God I have that large sample size (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

Last updated 01/08/2021

How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

Please show and share your data..

tmbrinks is quite possibly the king of writ data here and has been sharing it openly for years in the forums. I trust their analysis over virtually anybody else here, especially somebody who only has an anecdotal statement.

molyforest

tmbrinks wrote: »

Yoma73 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Thank God I have that large sample size (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

Last updated 01/08/2021

How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.



Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

So at this point your available data cannot answer my question! Understood, thanks for that!

molyforest

wtlonewolf20 wrote: »

RNG is RNG. As tmbanks has said. Humans have a tendency to makr positive outcomes better in our minds and make negative outcomes worse.

Yeah like I said in my OP probably just bad RNG! I made it up, OK got it, thanks for the info bestie!

tmbrinks

blueyonder wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Yoma73 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Thank God I have that large sample size (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

Last updated 01/08/2021

How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.



Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

So at this point your available data cannot answer my question! Understood, thanks for that!

If the rate did plummet like you suggest, then the Waking Flame data would be showing a dip in the drop rate. It isn't.

Trust me when I say there are plenty of people who do writs on 18, 36, 54 characters a day... and if there was a change in drop rate, they have the sample size to see that and these forums would be blowing up (like they were when there was a bug on Elsweyr release where accounts that didn't have Elsweyr were not getting BS/WW/Cloth surveys and those w/ Elsweyr were getting double of them).

I've openly shared my data and that spreadsheet with regular updates for years now. If you choose to not accept it, that's fine. But please come with something other than anecdotal evidence. ZoS wouldn't take it as proof of a change, many of us don't here.

wolfie1.0.

blueyonder wrote: »

wtlonewolf20 wrote: »

RNG is RNG. As tmbanks has said. Humans have a tendency to makr positive outcomes better in our minds and make negative outcomes worse.

Yeah like I said in my OP probably just bad RNG! I made it up, OK got it, thanks for the info bestie!

Sorry, did not mean to insult, and so I apologize.

wolfie1.0.

tmbrinks wrote: »

blueyonder wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Yoma73 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Thank God I have that large sample size (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

Last updated 01/08/2021

How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.



Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

So at this point your available data cannot answer my question! Understood, thanks for that!

If the rate did plummet like you suggest, then the Waking Flame data would be showing a dip in the drop rate. It isn't.

Trust me when I say there are plenty of people who do writs on 18, 36, 54 characters a day... and if there was a change in drop rate, they have the sample size to see that and these forums would be blowing up (like they were when there was a bug on Elsweyr release where accounts that didn't have Elsweyr were not getting BS/WW/Cloth surveys and those w/ Elsweyr were getting double of them).

I've openly shared my data and that spreadsheet with regular updates for years now. If you choose to not accept it, that's fine. But please come with something other than anecdotal evidence. ZoS wouldn't take it as proof of a change, many of us don't here.

While I don't share my data, I do writs on between 36 to 84 characters a day and I track it, it's just not as neat and detailed as what tmbanks has done. If something major changed I would have noticed.

redlink1979

Rng OP, just rng...

SidraWillowsky

tmbrinks wrote: »

Yoma73 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Thank God I have that large sample size (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

Last updated 01/08/2021

How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.



Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

Do you happen to have daily data on survey drops available? I mean, I know you have it somewhere, but is it something I could take a look at? I'm a statistician and am mostly just interested in playing around with it.

tmbrinks

SidraWillowsky wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Yoma73 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Thank God I have that large sample size (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

Last updated 01/08/2021

How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.



Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

Do you happen to have daily data on survey drops available? I mean, I know you have it somewhere, but is it something I could take a look at? I'm a statistician and am mostly just interested in playing around with it.

I do not have it broken down by day. I use Dolgubon's Lazy Writ Crafter's built-in tracking that he added in to get the combined data for each patch. Typing /outputwritstats will pop up a window that shows you. I've simply pulled that information and put it into the tables for analysis. I started very briefly tabulating it day by day, but once I learned that the add-on was collecting that data for me, I decided that the time spent to tabulate it for each individual day wasn't worth the additional information I would have gotten

While I agree that having that data could provide some meaningful insights into anything that's happening, I think the day-by-day sample sizes are on the small size (18-36 for most days), that I decided to look at the bigger picture of a patch-by-patch analysis (and then an overall analysis). I wish I knew more about programming and writing LUA files (or if it's possible) to have it output the data each day and then running a program to capture that data and have day by day information, but that's not something that I've seen (or know if it's even possible to do within the add-on constraints).

I_killed_Vivec

wtlonewolf20 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

blueyonder wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Yoma73 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Thank God I have that large sample size (Is 200k+ writs done enough?)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=418944504

Last updated 01/08/2021

How exactly does that help determining if there was a change in drop rate within the last two weeks?

I literally put in data yesterday... but okay.



Literally impossible to have enough data to make any conclusion after only 2 weeks... sample size is too small.

Sorry, I don't go to two week increments to satisfy your needs... but I do break it down by patch as well

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=989184360

Curious how I have Waking Flame data if I supposedly haven't updated it in 9 months...

So at this point your available data cannot answer my question! Understood, thanks for that!

If the rate did plummet like you suggest, then the Waking Flame data would be showing a dip in the drop rate. It isn't.

Trust me when I say there are plenty of people who do writs on 18, 36, 54 characters a day... and if there was a change in drop rate, they have the sample size to see that and these forums would be blowing up (like they were when there was a bug on Elsweyr release where accounts that didn't have Elsweyr were not getting BS/WW/Cloth surveys and those w/ Elsweyr were getting double of them).

I've openly shared my data and that spreadsheet with regular updates for years now. If you choose to not accept it, that's fine. But please come with something other than anecdotal evidence. ZoS wouldn't take it as proof of a change, many of us don't here.

While I don't share my data, I do writs on between 36 to 84 characters a day and I track it, it's just not as neat and detailed as what tmbanks has done. If something major changed I would have noticed.

36-84?!

Congratulations! I do 10 a day and that's enough for me.

I don't collect stats but in general my feeling is "Sometimes I get more, sometimes I get less, on the whole I do OK" and that's just the way it is. My slice of the RNG can never be indicative of RNG evened up over the whole game.

I remember when the ambrosia fragments were introduced and people complained about getting only a couple a week, down from 4 or 5... I didn't know what they were talking about, it was six months before I saw my first fragment! You can't just look at RNG applying to one person and try to make a judgement based on individual experience.

Though I haven't seen many potent nirncrux recently...

Rory_FightingToFifty

I spent a long time doing 14 character per day, but didn’t feel I had time to track them all. I mean…a thousand hours of work for someone to look at my chart and go “hmm”. Lol.

Observationally, the game RNG has never felt truly random. At first, my friend and I wondered if the game might have a traffic control mechanism - more players online leant more rewards overall, but less per player. However, over time it became clear that ESO is nowhere near that sophisticated. It might have traffic controls to prevent flooding the market, but we feel the weird RNG moments are like most things in the game that are weird - bad programming.

Zos always chooses the bargain basement option over investing in the game, which might actually be the most profitable strategy. But it’s also why no one in the game is intently seeking anything in particular which probably affects player spending on the game.