Vateshran hollows arena drop manipulation by ESO

GreenHere · April 2021

Flamebait wrote: »

[snip]

On a slightly more serious not, RNG is RNG, boohoo. I have done a total of about 20 runs through MA on a sorc and have 3 inferno staffs, 2 lightning staffs, 2 ice staffs, 3 resto staffs, a shield and axe from SB combo, and a couple bows, no dual wield and no 2 handers. Others have run dozens of times without getting a staff at all, that's how RNG works. Is it fair, yes, is it a good system, sure, would a token system be better, very likely yes. But claiming that it is a rigged system is faulty logic because inherent RNG means you can literally run the same thing a thousand times and not once get the desired outcome, while someone else can run it once and get the perfect outcome first time.

[Edited for Baiting]

Username checks out!

Flamebait · April 2021

I try, but I'm also honest.

Never got a 2 hander or dual wield from MA but got lots of staff, honestly just find it so boring I can't be bothered. And if being sarcastic gets people to actually think, then I'm fine with that, especially cause I like being sarcastic sometimes.

xaraan · April 2021

I always thought the drops were more like: Bow, Staff (Healing staff could be separate from destro), 2H, DW, Sword/Board. Then if you get one of those, it rolls for type if there are options like Ice/Fire/Lightning for Staff. So it would be more like a 1 in 5 or 6 chance of getting something like a bow over and over again. But that's just my assumption based on how I see things drop. So you'd more likely get multiple bows or healing staves before finishing out all the destro or DW styles.

Another thing though is people often think that a 1 in 6 chance means they will get that 1 at some point in six rolls. When RNG doesn't work that way, it's a 1 in 6 chance every time you roll, so you could possibly get a 1 every time or any other number every time.

There are definitely weird things with zos RNG though at times. I've picked a lock with 85% chance of success and watched it fail ten times in a row, frustrating, but possible. The weird thing though is that I've gotten drops in a 4 man dungeon run that were exactly the same as someone else on the team, down to the trait - very unlikely with true random choice. And that has happened many, many times.

Kwoung · April 2021

Flamebait wrote: »

I try, but I'm also honest. Never got a 2 hander or dual wield from MA but got lots of staff, honestly just find it so boring I can't be bothered. And if being sarcastic gets people to actually think, then I'm fine with that, especially cause I like being sarcastic sometimes.

The mark you missed is, ZOS to my knowledge has never said their loot tables are RNG, players say it. There isn't a single MMO made that uses pure RNG to disperse loot to players. Every single drop is weighted, on what, well only the guy who wrote the code and the person who told him to do it know. Yes, you can luck out and get the items you want the first try, that's incredible luck and also built into the equation, because they want players to say "I got it on the first try", leading people to believe that may be probably or at least mean there will not be a huge grind involved and try.

By your own post, you got the flame staff right away, the one 90% of the Mag DPS that go there are after. But you went back, and you keep getting them, now that you don't need it... see how it works?

Flamebait · April 2021

Nope don't se how that works, it just means that I don't have to reconstruct it on my alts. And as for RNG they haven't said anything but honestly either way, and it wouldn't matter. if they said it was all based off a random number then people would just accuse them of lying or that things are being rigged or any other number of things which makes any actual information meaningless. The problem with conspiracies is that they thrive even when there is direct evidence showing that they are false.

I can use the anniversary boxes as an example of RNG, I have mostly gotten, other than style pages, crafting mats, doing writs on 18 toons a day. A guild member does them on 3 toons a day and has so far gotten 4 chromium plates, 3 minotaur chests, 2 minotaur legs, among other things. He is doing way better in the RNG department of this than I am, but I am fine with accepting that it is all just RNG, whether it's true random or weighted or otherwise it still means everyone has the exact same chance.

Shantu · April 2021

3 Perfected Restoration Staffs in the last 4 runs. What BS.

wheresbes · April 2021

I also feel that RNG is somehow character-related. My alts magically got stuff that I hadn't in the sticker book, while I've run those dungeons countless of times with my main, how so? There seems to be more to it than "luck", it's embarrassing how many times I've run Arx with my magblade (crit-build) and still no inferno/lightning staves. If I can bring myself to respec an alt to stamina, I'd be really curious to see if and how that affects drop rates for staves.

remosito · April 2021

wheresbes wrote: »

I also feel that RNG is somehow character-related. My alts magically got stuff that I hadn't in the sticker book, while I've run those dungeons countless of times with my main, how so? There seems to be more to it than "luck", it's embarrassing how many times I've run Arx with my magblade (crit-build) and still no inferno/lightning staves. If I can bring myself to respec an alt to stamina, I'd be really curious to see if and how that affects drop rates for staves.

my alts are constantly getting stuff to not in my sticker book. but reason in my case is sticker book didnt exist back when. and I deconned most of my gear.....

Obsidian3 · April 2021

ZaroktheImmortal wrote: »

Honestly I feel like it always seems like the thing you want takes forever to drop..

5 years now still hunting for that Netch's Touch Lightning staff.

spartaxoxo · April 2021

Obsidian3 wrote: »

ZaroktheImmortal wrote: »

Honestly I feel like it always seems like the thing you want takes forever to drop..

5 years now still hunting for that Netch's Touch Lightning staff.

@Obsidian3

If you farm Darkshade 2 the named item that drops from Grobull is a netch's touch lightning staff. As it's a named item, it has a much higher drop rate than regular staffs. The name of that staff is Grobull's charge. It has a really low drop rate in DS1 but that named staff drops often in ds2

woe · April 2021

Every run is random. Just like rolling dice or flipping a coin, you can have hugs streaks of luck or have the complete opposite and BOTH of those outcomes are normal.

scorpius2k1 · April 2021

remosito wrote: »

been proposing a new green tree passive along those lines for a while. green tree has by far the least points to put into. so no real need to overload treasure hunter one. Add it as a new one.

"Increase chances to get uncollected versus collected gear by x% per stage" with 5 stages.

+1 That would be really nice to have! Another idea, why not have the NPC at the end of each completed area, you could spend keys for a coffer -- the same way we already to at the undaunted enclave (this could even be an idea for all solo arenas, trials, etc). This way we can have a better chance at the gear set we're after. Rng is well...rng yes, but for me personally it's too volatile and after you spend the time and effort grinding hard content over and over many times, a better chance at what you're after doesn't seem too unfair. Keep the raw rng for easier content (overland, farming, delves, pub dungeons, etc).

Casul · April 2021

I knew a guy who only ran spriggans hundings and agility weapons. He must be laughing at all of us now days.

regime211 · April 2021

Minnesinger wrote: »

In defence of ZOS there is no reason why or for what gain they would want to manipulate the drops. Even if the drop chances of desired set pieces seems to cause a lot anxioty, I doubt that you can find manipulation there. Can someone else confirm they get the same result everytime? If only you could see the statistics of all drops.

There RNG is a lazy system and it shows.

Stevie6 · April 2021

Maybe the Devs should make a change and add a vendor at the end of arenas or dungeons?

Stevie6 · April 2021

also, the ability to sell dungeon sets/items in the guild stores....

Stahlor · April 2021

Minnesinger wrote: »

In defence of ZOS there is no reason why or for what gain they would want to manipulate the drops. Even if the drop chances of desired set pieces seems to cause a lot anxioty, I doubt that you can find manipulation there. Can someone else confirm they get the same result everytime? If only you could see the statistics of all drops.

To keep us busy. There is otherwise also no reason, why they didn't convert our old arena weapons, when they introduced the perfected versions.

RageKing · April 2021

Kwoung wrote: »

Gythral wrote: »

GreenHere wrote: »

The secret is to wish really really hard for the things you don't want! ...

This RNGuses seems to be a REALLY REALLY good mind reader & only drops undesided items

Run it on a class that can't possible use what you are after and it will drop like rain. Need a staff, farm it on a StamBlade, Sword & Board, use a Sorc, etc... Works every time. The RNG is definitely *NOT* fully RNG.

Hahaha this is what I do. It seems you are more inclined to get weapons opposite what your using. so mag users get alot of stam weapons and vice versa. So farm for your weapons accordingly and beat the Mad God and his games

Diminish · April 2021

I previously posted the following:

Diminish wrote: »

I got the Mace like 3 times in a row, and then got it from the leader board rewards that week, lol.

I came here to give an update that my RNG has finally changed; I no longer seem to be getting maces!

I'm now getting nothing but ice staves

UPDATE: Just checked my leaderboard reward. Got another ice staff

You can't make this **** up at this point.

Athan1 · April 2021

I'm sorry to break this to you folks, but in programming there is no real RNG. Computers have thousands of pre-made lists of "random" number sequences and shuffle through them in a seemingly random way, often affected by the time and date. You are more likely to get similar results if you repeat a random process over and over, because you are "stuck" on a page of these RNG lists that isn't favourable to you. That's why it always helps to take a break, walk around, rezone etc, because it will refresh the RNG page that is currently being used.

kimhwee wrote: »

Hi ASO team

Also, what is ASO?

rpa · April 2021

Pseudorandom is random enough for simulations and games, if used correctly. Problem being its easy to introduce biases with misuse. You want to have random number in range of 0.. 9 and your random generator gives numbers 0..255? If you do the obvious and take remainder from dividing a number from rng by 10, result is in range but also biased. (Correct way is not that obvious.) You want extra good random numbers for loot drops so you reseed your rng from system time when you roll loot for each player? Depending of time resolution it's likely 2 similar chars getting loot from same boss get exact same loot. (Correct way is seed rng once and never reseed it.) And so on.

WrathOfInnos · April 2021

kimhwee wrote: »

Hi ASO team,

I understand and knew that you modified your so call "rng" but it is to the point of ridiculous. But can you explain that i got the Vateshran hollows bow for 8th times straight?
That probability is 1/17 * 8 times. I could win lottery with that probability.

Please could you just let your "rng" be real rng instead? Or introduce a token system that allow players to trade in undesired drops to token that they can trade in later?
I dont want to quite ESO now because I had a great guild with great people. But is the game is manipulated in such a nasty way. Statistics show the truth.

Lol, that’s a 1 in 7 billion chance. You are literally the one person on earth to get 8 bows in a row. Lucky you

Try it again. There’s a 1 in 17 chance you’ll turn it into a 1 in 118 billion streak.

Obsidian3 · April 2021

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Obsidian3 wrote: »

ZaroktheImmortal wrote: »

Honestly I feel like it always seems like the thing you want takes forever to drop..

5 years now still hunting for that Netch's Touch Lightning staff.

@Obsidian3

If you farm Darkshade 2 the named item that drops from Grobull is a netch's touch lightning staff. As it's a named item, it has a much higher drop rate than regular staffs. The name of that staff is Grobull's charge. It has a really low drop rate in DS1 but that named staff drops often in ds2

Thank you!

CountonMe · July 2021

I also got 8 bows in a row. Now I'm only getting resto staves. This is near impossible odds. I think there is a bug, or ESO turned everything else off. Maybe we will get new item drops when the new crates come out.

xeNNNNN · July 2021

Minnesinger wrote: »

In defence of ZOS there is no reason why or for what gain they would want to manipulate the drops. Even if the drop chances of desired set pieces seems to cause a lot anxioty, I doubt that you can find manipulation there. Can someone else confirm they get the same result everytime? If only you could see the statistics of all drops.

Forced repetition of content = players play more because they're after a specific item. Virtually every game with a drop system is built around something akin to this mentality.

In all honesty, this topic could be cleared up if ZoS would just release their drop tables. They absolutely have them, they would not implement something that is completely random it would mess with their metrics. (ex of devs showing drop tables; Warframe, DE)

Artemis_X_ · July 2021

Flamebait wrote: »

[snip]

On a slightly more serious not, RNG is RNG, boohoo. I have done a total of about 20 runs through MA on a sorc and have 3 inferno staffs, 2 lightning staffs, 2 ice staffs, 3 resto staffs, a shield and axe from SB combo, and a couple bows, no dual wield and no 2 handers. Others have run dozens of times without getting a staff at all, that's how RNG works. Is it fair, yes, is it a good system, sure, would a token system be better, very likely yes. But claiming that it is a rigged system is faulty logic because inherent RNG means you can literally run the same thing a thousand times and not once get the desired outcome, while someone else can run it once and get the perfect outcome first time.

[Edited for Baiting]

I'd agree totally if it wasnt for the number of people who get the exact same item drop three or four times in a row, with 51(ish?) Items to drop on a final boss the odds should be extremely low for itnto happen like that which to me suggests the odds are rigged, a bit like gambling machines

MythicaLMeddLer · July 2021

I’ve gotten 6 straight ice staves, then one bow, then another 2 ice staves in my search for the maul. I’ve done it anywhere from 50-75 times, and have every weapon aside from maul, and shield set weapons.

CountonMe · July 2021

wheresbes wrote: »

I also feel that RNG is somehow character-related. My alts magically got stuff that I hadn't in the sticker book, while I've run those dungeons countless of times with my main, how so? There seems to be more to it than "luck", it's embarrassing how many times I've run Arx with my magblade (crit-build) and still no inferno/lightning staves. If I can bring myself to respec an alt to stamina, I'd be really curious to see if and how that affects drop rates for staves.

I agree. Also to the guy that gave the Anniversry boxes example, same here. I think that Zeni codes a differential or some kind of multiplier to each account so there will only be a certain group of people getting Aetherial Dust, a certain number of people getting Perfect Roe, and a certain number of people wielding certain weapons. If everyone had the same chance of getting everything the game would be too equal. I have played the game since Beta and haven't gotten a single Aetherial Dust. And I have a Grand Master Crafter with Grand Master farming achievement. So I think they purposely manipulate the economy and builds people can use. And no, I don't wear tin foil hats.