I'm pretty sure it's totally random. I've had everything I need/want drop after a couple of runs, and I've also run dungeons 100 times without getting what I'm looking for.

On the upside, there isn't any one particular item that's absolutely necessary to run any content in the game.

Kaivalya wrote: »

No one particular item? True. However, I have to be able to wear two dungeon sets and a "monster" set at the same time, and that means getting the right weapons to drop from at least one dungeon. Or one dungeon weapon, one arena weapon, but that's not easier.

The drop rate isn't so low that it's unreasonable to get weapons for your preferred skill lines. You might not get the dagger you want, but you'll probably have no problem getting maces or swords, for example.

If that's still not easy enough for you, you can always buy overland or crafted sets.

Lastly, monster sets are a non-issue. You always get a monster helm from a vet dungeon, and there are only 3 weights, so you rarely have to run a dungeon more than a few times to get what you need. You'll spend more time farming undaunted keys to get the shoulders.

Kaivalya wrote: »

the1andonlyskwex wrote: »

You might not get the dagger you want, but you'll probably have no problem getting maces or swords, for example

Mace vs. sword. vs. axe, for one-handed or two-handed, isn't as big a difference I guess. Everything else, you need the exact drop(s). This is exactly what I'm talking about in the OP. Why do people try to downplay it? What we need is pressure on Zeni to make the system ethical. Let use trade, say, 25 weapons we don't want for one that we do. Have you done the math? How many runs does it take to reach an 80% chance of having gotten a particular weapon? The drop rate is way lower than unreasonable.

If the drop rates were uniform (for 12 weapons and 2 jewelry pieces), it would take 22 runs to have an 80% chance of getting what you want (without any trading).

Unfortunately for my math, I know the drop rates aren't uniform. Specifically, I know that the chances of getting a destro staff are the same as the chances of getting a resto staff, which actually makes it easier to just get something you can use (while making it harder to get a specific flavor of destro staff). The same sort of thing happens for 1h weapons and 2h weapons, and I'm not sure what happens with shields. On the other hand, I think the drop rate for jewelry is higher than for weapons, which skews things a little bit the other way.

Lastly, there are a lot of sets with named drops from certain bosses, and those items are way easier to farm, so if all you want is to have a full 5 piece set, the amount of farming necessary is pretty minimal.

All of that said, I certainly wouldn't be opposed to there being a way to get a BSW Inferno Staff without running City of Ash another 150 times.

Based on nearly every other conversation I've had about this topic, it seems that making the odds too low makes people quit. For the most part, the only ones who have stuck around for me to have the discussions with are those who got their equipment relatively quickly. When I mentioned that I'd been working on healer equipment for at least a year, a guild officer told me that I could get what I needed for the guild's requirements in a single afternoon. Possible? Sure. But nowhere near likely.

Kaivalya wrote: »

The odds of getting any one particular dungeon weapon are obscenely low. Even if you get people willing to trade, the odds are still quite poor. Whenever I discuss this with other players, they make it seem like most people get what they need far more quickly than for how long I've been trying, far more easily on average than if drops are totally random. Are they? Do a lot of people who don't get lucky with drops quit the game, leading to me not hearing from them when I ask about this? In ESO, do you have to accept that you might never be able to do certain content because you'll never have the necessary equipment?

It depends on the dungeon. Each dungeon has only certain bosses who drop weapons - often the last one. They have two or four chests. On a four chest dungeon it's acutally a bit easier as you've got something like a 1 in 12 chance of getting the weapon you need plus an ~1 in 50 or so chance per chest. That's all per group member so with a guild group it doesn't usually take long. Sometimes you get unlucky. One poor guild member spent forever trying to get the titanborn maul for his vampire and then when he got it it they nerfed/fixed the titanborn + vampire trick 8)

Many of the best sets are overland sets, or craftable. Most of the dungeon sets you can shuffle things around to make it work if you don't have all the pieces or just use different sets that work as well.

It's also been made slightly easier to build usable sets because you can take one single handed weapon or one ring and use transmutes to reconstruct a pair.

"Many of the best sets are overland sets, or craftable. Most of the dungeon sets you can shuffle things around to make it work if you don't have all the pieces or just use different sets that work as well."
My understanding is that even for normal trials, healers need to be able to run several 5/5/2 combinations, with both 5-piece sets being BoP, because if you can't provide adequate support, the group is significantly better off with another DPS instead. That means that you have to get a lot of the right weapons to drop. At least one of the arena weapons is an acceptable substitute instead, at least sometimes, but those are no easier to get.

Some bosses in dungeons do not drop weapons. For instance, in Castle Thorn, only the last boss drops weapons, making farming much harder

Kaivalya wrote: »

“Arena weapons drop more reliably....”

“Some bosses in dungeons do not drop weapons. For instance, in Castle Thorn, only the last boss drops weapons, making farming much harder”
I thought weapons (and jewelry) are last-boss-only (and chests) in pretty much all dungeons. I’m not aware of any exceptions, but it wouldn’t surprise me. Any good healer weapons drop from other-than-first bosses? I guess maybe some of the named weapons someone mentioned above.

You might be right. But I do seem to end up with lots of weapons out of the base dungeons, especially stuff I don't need. Never really paid attention to when stuff dropped in places like Fungal or Direfrost.

Another thing I have been told is that DLC dungeons only have 2 chests in normal dungeons, which also doesn't help.

The unbroken drops from the Planar Inhibitor. Named boss drops exist in base game dungeons, WGT and ICP but not any of the dlc dungeons after those.

It feels great when the weapon you need finally drops though. Don’t think I would want it changed I ran Arx probably 100 times before getting the inferno staff had a friend who ran it once all comes down to luck. Where is the fun if you get what you want straight away or even after a few runs. Some things in life have to be worked for even though some people these days don’t think so.

"...all comes down to luck. Where is the fun if you get what you want straight away or even after a few runs."
Where is the satisfaction if luck, something you have no control over, plays way too big a role? There's a huge gap between "a few runs" and what I said in my OP, "The odds of getting any one particular dungeon weapon are obscenely low." Sure it feels good when you finally get what you were trying for (if you get it). Slot machine rooms in casinos are full of people who haven't gotten past that primitive response.

You certainly have a point though, and I think that they should set both the minimum and maximum number of attempts it takes to get something. Each time you do the thing (successfully if applicable), you should get a partially random number of tokens. There should be a minimum and maximum number you can get per attempt. Then, they can set the cost of acquiring an item such that the minimum and maximum number of attempts needed is just what they want.

A specific, slightly different example: How about each time you deconstruct a (non-reconstructed) maelstrom weapon, you get a partially random amount of a unique material, let's say Maelstrom Aether? When you have enough, you can trade it for the weapon that you wanted that didn't drop during any of those runs. How many runs should it take to get a specific weapon that way? Minimum 20, Maximum 40? What seems reasonable?