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Is extremely low drop-rate of "Wayward Guardian" motif chapters a "bug"? or is it intentional?

HumbleThaumaturge
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The new "Wayward Guardian" motif may drop as a reward for completing Wayward Guardian daily quests in Markarth. There are seven potential daily quests. Each of one's characters may receive only one of these quests per day from the NPC quest-giver (Ardanir). However, each character may complete up to seven daily quests each day, by having other players Share quests (the same way daily worldboss quests are shared in Wrothgar).

Wanting my crafter to have this new motif, I qualified a whole bunch of my characters to perform the Wayward Guardian daily quest. This required completing all the main story quests in the DLC - - - about 2 hours per character. Today, taking advantage of quest-sharing, my cast of characters had the following results:
- 58 daily quests completed
- Only 1 motif chapter dropped!

Seriously: a 1-in-58 drop rate? Is that intentional? Was it designed that way? Or is there a "bug"?

Did the developers really want the drop-rate for this motif to be this extremely low? If so, I would suggest that they design more interesting ways to obtain such rare items. Is there a drop-rate limit per account per day? I've never heard of such a thing. But I got my 1 motif very early in the process, then never got another one.

In either case, I beg the developers to raise the drop rate on this motif. Either change the philosophy on what is worthwhile and challenging and fun for the players, or fix the the drop rate calculation if it is in error.
  • redspecter23
    redspecter23
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    ZOS sets the drop rate intentionally. They also happen to sell the motif in the store for those that aren't interested in the grind. They create a problem and sell you the solution. It is absolutely 100% intentional.

    I haven't been farming this particular one yet, but consider that there may be an invisible cooldown on your motif drop chance. They could have a 24 hour timer tick once you get your drop and before another is possible. I'm not saying for sure this is the case, but if it is, then the drop chance could be much better than 1 in 58, but you are on lockout without knowing it.
    Edited by redspecter23 on April 18, 2021 9:25PM
  • Luke_Flamesword
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    There are always cooldowns with this motifs - once per day. I'm not sure how exactly it works, because I was thought there is 20h cooldown, but in Friday I get motif in 11 PM, and next day it was something like 2-3 PM so maybe they uses daily reset or something for this one.
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  • jle30303
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    If you say cooldowns for motifs - is that "per account" or "per character"?

    And which, if any, other motifs is such a thing known or believed to apply to?
  • HumbleThaumaturge
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    jle30303 wrote: »
    If you say cooldowns for motifs - is that "per account" or "per character"?

    And which, if any, other motifs is such a thing known or believed to apply to?

    My memory is not reliable, but . . . I seem to remember that I could only get 1 motif per day doing the Craglorn daily quests. But that was many years ago, my brain he does not always remember correctly.
  • HumbleThaumaturge
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    jle30303 wrote: »
    If you say cooldowns for motifs - is that "per account" or "per character"?

    And which, if any, other motifs is such a thing known or believed to apply to?

    Don't know if it's fact or fiction, but: Some player in one of my guilds says that Northern and Southern Elswyr only drops 1 motif per day. Is that true? Gosh, if there is a 1 per day limit, sure wish ZOS would publish that, all official-like.
  • HumbleThaumaturge
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    Thanks for the responses. I am beginning to believe maybe there is a 1 motif per day limit per account. That sure would explain why I only got 1 motif with 58 dailies. Anyway, in future, I guess I'll just do the Markarth dailies until I get the first motif on the account, then stop for the day. Unless someone can tell me definitively (from personal experience) that it's possible to get more than 1 motif per account per day, or perhaps even more than 1 motif per character per day.

    If there is a motif-limit, it sure would be appreciate if this were mentioned in-game. Maybe a notification posted next to the NPC quest-giver? I don't know: something would be nice.
  • hafgood
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    No what you do is all the quests you can but once you have a motif stop opening boxes, don't look at them, don't be tempted to peek into them, just leave them in your inventory for the next day.

    Then when you feel lucky open up the next batch until you get one. Some days it may be box 1, others box 58 but this way you increase your chances.
  • HumbleThaumaturge
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    hafgood wrote: »
    No what you do is all the quests you can but once you have a motif stop opening boxes, don't look at them, don't be tempted to peek into them, just leave them in your inventory for the next day.

    Then when you feel lucky open up the next batch until you get one. Some days it may be box 1, others box 58 but this way you increase your chances.

    Thanks. Great idea.
  • Cireous
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    I'm more upset that I have to finish almost the entire main story on every alt just to open this up to them. This is an unusually long and annoying hurdle to access a repeatable quest giver. :unamused:
  • HumbleThaumaturge
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    There are always cooldowns with this motifs - once per day. I'm not sure how exactly it works, because I was thought there is 20h cooldown, but in Friday I get motif in 11 PM, and next day it was something like 2-3 PM so maybe they uses daily reset or something for this one.

    If there is a 1 motif per day per account limit, sure would like to know if: (1) there is a once-per-day reset (like, at the time the dailies reset); or (2) as you state, a 20 hour cooldown after the last motif was dropped.
  • HumbleThaumaturge
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    Found forum discussion on similar situation:

    https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/516986/shield-of-senchal-motif-is-there-a-cooldown-on-drops/p1

    So . . . I guess there is a 1-motif-per-day-per-account limit . . . and one cannot get another motif until 20 hours after the last motif dropped? So, when performing "Wayward Guardian" daily quests, stop opening reward boxes after one gets the first motif, then start opening reward boxes again after 20 hours has elapsed? Guess that's what I'll start doing.
  • MasterSpatula
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    Murkmire motifs you can definitely get more than one of per day. Summerset, I'm pretty sure you can.

    Northern and Southern Elsweyr you absolutely cannot.

    I've just worked on the assumption that this is the case for everything since, so I stopped opening boxes when I got a page in Western Skyrim and The Reach daily boxes.

    And no, this is frankly not okay. It strikes me as just plain mean to do it at all and outright cruel to do it and not tell anyone. But at least once you figure it out, you won't replicate the error of opening too many boxes.
    Edited by MasterSpatula on April 19, 2021 8:24AM
    "A probable impossibility is preferable to an improbable possibility." - Aristotle
  • HumbleThaumaturge
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    Thanks everyone for helping me to understand how Wayward Guardian motif-dropping works (or might work) (or probably works). The original post was based on completing 58 Wayward Guardian quests, and only getting 1 motif. Apparently, after that first motif drops, another motif will not drop (account-wide) until at least 20 hours have elapsed.

    So today, here are the results of three independent sets of Wayward Guardian dailies. Lots of quest-sharing going on, with many qualified characters, to get a fair number of reward boxes. This time, reward boxes were not opened until all dailies were completed. For all of us, we stopped opening reward boxes after the first motif dropped, assuming that motif-dropping starts the 20-hour cooldown timer that blocks another motif from dropping.

    Set 1: 1 motif in 5 dailies
    Set 2: 1 motif in 13 dailies
    Set 3: 1 motif in 1 daily (jackpot!)

    We will all start opening our reward boxes (from today) starting tomorrow after 20 hours has elapsed. Gee, maybe we should wait 24 hours just to be sure?

    Anyway, thanks again everybody for setting me straight on this motif mechanic. Much appreciated.
  • Jaimeh
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    100% intentional... plus, it's released when most people have finished their daily achievement, so combined with the low drop rate, will likely turn to CS...
  • katanagirl1
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    Murkmire motifs you can definitely get more than one of per day. Summerset, I'm pretty sure you can.

    Northern and Southern Elsweyr you absolutely cannot.

    I've just worked on the assumption that this is the case for everything since, so I stopped opening boxes when I got a page in Western Skyrim and The Reach daily boxes.

    And no, this is frankly not okay. It strikes me as just plain mean to do it at all and outright cruel to do it and not tell anyone. But at least once you figure it out, you won't replicate the error of opening too many boxes.

    I agree. The rewards in the game should be equal to the amount of effort you put into something. Arbitrary cooldowns are not fair. The drop rates are so ridiculously low you have to do these on more than one character, but can only get one reward per day. You should be able to get as many motif pages as the ridiculously low drop rate gives you for as many boxes as you earn.
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  • tim99
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    agree, hidden loots-stops are really bad and unfair behaviour.
    i remember when i ran one of the dragon dungeons on my tank in vet groupfinder for a whole day nonstop, needed to explain mechs in every single run over and over again, just to find out, that page also had a cooldown of one day.

    cooldowns really needs to be communicated, the grind is bad enough because of eso-rng, but if you dont even have a chance to get it, you feel pretty quick ripped off.

    who knows where we also run into hidden loot-stops for different things.
  • HumbleThaumaturge
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    So today, here are the results of three independent sets of Wayward Guardian dailies. Lots of quest-sharing going on, with many qualified characters, to get a fair number of reward boxes. This time, reward boxes were not opened until all dailies were completed. For all of us, we stopped opening reward boxes after the first motif dropped, assuming that motif-dropping starts the 20-hour cooldown timer that blocks another motif from dropping.

    Set 1: 1 motif in 5 dailies
    Set 2: 1 motif in 13 dailies
    Set 3: 1 motif in 1 daily (jackpot!)

    We will all start opening our reward boxes (from today) starting tomorrow after 20 hours has elapsed. Gee, maybe we should wait 24 hours just to be sure?

    Our research team continued testing again today. Here are the results from three sets of Wayward Guardian dailies.

    Set 1: 1 motif in 2 dailies
    Set 2: 1 motif in 7 dailies
    Set 3: 1 motif in 1 daily (jackpot, again!)

    Per our plan, we waited at least 20 hours (22 hours actually) until after the last motif dropped yesterday. Once a motif dropped, no more boxes were opened. I now firmly believe that when a motif drops, a "cooldown" timer starts, preventing another motif from dropping on that account (from any character) for at least 20 hours.

    My Original question was: "Is extremely low drop-rate of "Wayward Guardian" motif chapters a "bug"? or is it intentional?"

    Answer: The motif drop-mechanics are, indeed intentional. It's not a "bug." Yet I now see that the "drop-rate" (in terms solely of the number of daily reward boxes required to get a motif) is actually reasonable. The drop-rate only becomes unreasonable if an ignorant player (such as I) keeps opening reward boxes after a motif has dropped for the day. That's what happened to me on my first day of motif farming. Thanks everyone for your help! Completing this motif is going to be easy now: I already have 10 out of the 14 chapters.
  • FoxMichele
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    this is the second day without any motif: yesterday I do 2 aldanir daily and today 3 always at the same hour but no drop for me.
    Edited by FoxMichele on April 21, 2021 4:58PM
  • HumbleThaumaturge
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    Last Update:

    Continuing experiment performing Wayward Guardian dailies and opening reward boxes hoping for a motif chapter. Now waiting greater than 20 hours from time a motif dropped last time. Stop opening reward boxes after a motif drops, which starts account-wide 20 hour timer again, blocking any more motifs from dropping for all characters on the account. Quest-sharing was used to run up to 7 dailies per character.

    Day 1
    Set 1: 1 motif after 5 dailies
    Set 2: 1 motif after 13 dailies
    Set 3: 1 motif after 1 daily

    Day 2
    Set 1: 1 motif after 2 dailies
    Set 2: 1 motif after 7 dailies
    Set 3: 1 motif after 1 daily

    Day 3
    Set 1: 1 motif after 7 dailies
    Set 2: 1 motif after 2 dailies
    Set 3: 1 motif after 1 daily

    Again, I suppose the "drop rate" is reasonable, as long as you know to stop opening reward boxes after a motif drops. You can save reward boxes . . . so you open them on future days, at a time when the 20-hour cooldown timer is reset. I am now taking notes . . . marking the time when a motif drops, as well as the 20 hour reset time.
  • Mr_Arce88
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    From my experience, some motifs indeed have timer. Some are on 20h timer, while other are on daily timer that resets along with the writs. There is no concrete information about this from ZOS unfortunetely, so it all comes down to trial and error.
    The average motif drop rate you should expect for any given daily is 20%, untill proved otherwise (I'm basing this on a sample of 2133 boxes)
    There are couple of exceptions from this rule, hence 20% should only be treated as a expected value, not the drop rate of particualr motif. For example following motifs (I excluded them from the overall list as they would significantly lower that 20%):
    Draugr Motif has a drop rate of 5%
    Mercenary Motif has a drop rate of 2%
    New Moon Priest has a drop rate of 50%
  • Rittings
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    The "cooldown" theory is both true, and false at the same time... I'll explain.

    Let's say you have saved 2 days worth of boxes (14 boxes). If you open them all, I'd suggest you'll only get a single motif page (you may be incredibly unlucky and get zero... but I've yet to see such bad luck). So the motif page is NOT a guarantee even if you wait the suggested daily cooldown.

    You might get a motif immediately (like within the first 1-3 boxes you open. You should probably STOP opening boxes at this point... waiting until the day resets/20hr cooldown and you'll likely get another from the remaining 11-13 boxes... in fact, you could end up being really lucky and getting 1 motif per box over a 14 day period. This is where the cooldown can absolutely be confirmed as in play.

    However, just because you get a motif out of the 14 boxes, you could still get VERY lucky and get another if you open more... heck, you could get one every box opening all in one go - it's VERY unlikely though. But this is where the cooldown appears "false" when you get a 2nd motif in the same day.

    It's my belief that the drop rate is high until you get the first of the day... then some sort of code kicks in once you have one that lowers the drop rate dramatically. This is where the cooldown exists and operates.

    My wife and I stacked boxes upon boxes prior to the release of the page - because we knew from previous experiences (Senchel motif style operates the same way) that boxes earned BEFORE the release could still contain the pages if opened AFTER the release. We had a LOT of boxes saved... so many... that my wife already has the entire book learned, and I'm about 3 or 4 pages away from completion :)
  • HumbleThaumaturge
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    Rittings wrote: »
    The "cooldown" theory is both true, and false at the same time... I'll explain.

    It's my belief that the drop rate is high until you get the first of the day... then some sort of code kicks in once you have one that lowers the drop rate dramatically. This is where the cooldown exists and operates.

    Frequently, when I tell other players what I believe about the 1-Wayward Guardian motif-per-account-per-20-hour limit, I am met with absolute disbelief, with folks swearing that they have personally had more than 1 motif per day, or they no someone who has, or someone who knows someone who knows someone who has. So, maybe it is, indeed possible to get more than 1 motif in 20 hours. Personally, when a Wayward Guardian motif drops, I am going to stop opening Wayward Guardian cache boxes, mark the time, and wait at least 20 hours before I open more boxes.

    Here is the result from Day 4 of dailies and reward boxes (see above for Days 1, 2, and 3):

    Day 4
    Set 1: 1 motif after 3 dailies
    Set 2: 1 motif after 4 dailies
    Set 3: 1 motif after 3 daily
  • redlink1979
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    (...)
    - 58 daily quests completed
    - Only 1 motif chapter dropped!(...)
    There's a cooldown system implemented on motif drops from daily quests (20-24h cool-down).
    (...)Some player in one of my guilds says that Northern and Southern Elswyr only drops 1 motif per day. Is that true?(...)
    Yes. A cooldown was implemented a shortwhile after SE release but, upon release you could get several drops per day from NE n SE motifs (you couldn't get all motifs because motifs were released on different dates, ie, Shields of Senchal had already a cooldown when it was released but Dragonguard hadn't cooldown when it was released)
    jle30303 wrote: »
    If you say cooldowns for motifs - is that "per account" or "per character"? (...)
    Cooldown is applied to account.
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  • virtus753
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    There's also a cooldown on Morrowind house motifs you can get by stealing from NPCs in Vvardenfell.

    It's a soft cooldown, as mentioned above, so there is a very slim chance you can get one again in the 20-hour cooldown period, but you must be very lucky.

    It's a much better use of time to get your first motif of the day and wait the 20 hours out doing something else.
  • Rittings
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    virtus753 wrote: »
    There's also a cooldown on Morrowind house motifs you can get by stealing from NPCs in Vvardenfell.

    It's a soft cooldown, as mentioned above, so there is a very slim chance you can get one again in the 20-hour cooldown period, but you must be very lucky.

    It's a much better use of time to get your first motif of the day and wait the 20 hours out doing something else.

    This cooldown is character based though. I got these motifs by rotating through 4 sneaky thief toons I made designed specifically for farming them lol. It's about an hour I found.... I got all these motifs within a week using this method :)

    The wayward guardian one I'm nearly complete myself on, and my wife is complete. Alts really are very useful.
  • HumbleThaumaturge
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    Rittings wrote: »
    virtus753 wrote: »
    There's also a cooldown on Morrowind house motifs you can get by stealing from NPCs in Vvardenfell.

    It's a soft cooldown, as mentioned above, so there is a very slim chance you can get one again in the 20-hour cooldown period, but you must be very lucky.

    It's a much better use of time to get your first motif of the day and wait the 20 hours out doing something else.

    This cooldown is character based though. I got these motifs by rotating through 4 sneaky thief toons I made designed specifically for farming them lol. It's about an hour I found.... I got all these motifs within a week using this method :)

    The wayward guardian one I'm nearly complete myself on, and my wife is complete. Alts really are very useful.

    I have qualified 17 characters to do the Markarth Wayward Guardian motif dailies. In my experience so far opening cache (reward) boxes, once a motif drops for any character, the motif won't drop for the other characters either, until 20 hours later. I suppose I could keep experimenting; but I'm convinced there is an account-wide limit of one Wayward Guardian motif per 20 hours. I could keep experimenting, but I wouldn't want to risk wasting another 50 reward boxes, if the experiment fails again.
  • virtus753
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    Rittings wrote: »
    virtus753 wrote: »
    There's also a cooldown on Morrowind house motifs you can get by stealing from NPCs in Vvardenfell.

    It's a soft cooldown, as mentioned above, so there is a very slim chance you can get one again in the 20-hour cooldown period, but you must be very lucky.

    It's a much better use of time to get your first motif of the day and wait the 20 hours out doing something else.

    This cooldown is character based though. I got these motifs by rotating through 4 sneaky thief toons I made designed specifically for farming them lol. It's about an hour I found.... I got all these motifs within a week using this method :)

    The wayward guardian one I'm nearly complete myself on, and my wife is complete. Alts really are very useful.

    I was trying to test the Morrowind one on my alts, but none has very high rank in TG or Legerdemain right now, as they’ve mainly been crafters. It’s good if they’re per character, though, I think. Makes it feel worthwhile to have alts.
    Edited by virtus753 on April 23, 2021 3:54PM
  • Dagoth_Rac
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    This cooldown was done to help average players. Most players are going to do 2 or 3 dailies each day. In the past, their chance to get a motif was very low. While the people who did like 40 dailies per day were getting 3 and 4 motif pages. Now, the average player has a much higher chance of getting a motif page. This makes them feel good and want to play again tomorrow.

    1). Prevent the average player from feeling like they never get motif pages and stop trying due to discouragement.
    2). Don't make drops so common that market gets flooded with motif pages and they become worthless.

    These cooldowns (whether hard or soft) accomplish both of the above and seem to be a good compromise between "make it easier for average player to get a motif page" and "motif pages are stupidly easy to get".

    This was "raise the floor, lower the ceiling" for motif pages and it seems to have worked effectively in a way that they continue to struggle with for combat!
  • katanagirl1
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    Dagoth_Rac wrote: »
    This cooldown was done to help average players. Most players are going to do 2 or 3 dailies each day. In the past, their chance to get a motif was very low. While the people who did like 40 dailies per day were getting 3 and 4 motif pages. Now, the average player has a much higher chance of getting a motif page. This makes them feel good and want to play again tomorrow.

    1). Prevent the average player from feeling like they never get motif pages and stop trying due to discouragement.
    2). Don't make drops so common that market gets flooded with motif pages and they become worthless.

    These cooldowns (whether hard or soft) accomplish both of the above and seem to be a good compromise between "make it easier for average player to get a motif page" and "motif pages are stupidly easy to get".

    This was "raise the floor, lower the ceiling" for motif pages and it seems to have worked effectively in a way that they continue to struggle with for combat!

    How is the average player getting a higher chance to get a motif page with a 20 hour cooldown?

    The only way would be if the actual drop rate went up, which I have not heard anywhere is the case.

    Having more pages from players that got them on alts did not make the motif pages worthless, it just lowered the price in traders after a few months when supply caught up with demand.

    I don’t see it helping anyone, it just keeps a lot of players from farming all the plans themselves, then they get tired of the absurdly low drop rate and buy them from traders. Since there are fewer pages in the system though, the price will be higher.
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  • HumbleThaumaturge
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    How is the average player getting a higher chance to get a motif page with a 20 hour cooldown?

    The only way would be if the actual drop rate went up, which I have not heard anywhere is the case.

    I suppose his point might be . . .

    Without a 20-hour cooldown:
    - The average player runs dailies on 1 character, and earns enough reward (cache) boxes to get 1 motif per day
    - The farming-player runs dailies on 18 character, and potentially gets 18 motifs, or more, per day

    With a 20-hour cooldown (a limit, or much higher probability, of 1 Wayward Guardian motif per account per 20 hours):
    - The average player gets 1 motif per day (20 hours)
    - The farming-player gets 1 motif per day (20 hours)

    The average player has a "higher drop chance" in that they are getting the same number of drops per day as the farming player (with a cooldown), instead of maybe 5 percent of the drops (without a cooldown).
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