Vateshran hollows arena drop manipulation by ESO
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Stahlor✭✭✭✭✭I'm not talking about a particular staff - just any Siroria staff. My team has recently run it at least 50 times. I guess, Relequen bow has dropped several times for everyone...
There are lots of other examples like that. e.g. Medusa inderno, before it was UI inferno, BSW inferno...Edited by Stahlor on April 5, 2021 10:28AM1 -
Nezyr_Jezz✭✭✭I'm not talking about a particular staff - just any Siroria staff. My team has recently run it at least 50 times. I guess, Relequen bow has dropped several times for everyone...
There are lots of other examples like that. e.g. Medusa inderno, before it was UI inferno, BSW inferno...
My 16.6% was based on the fact that you will drop any at all. If you want the full percentage here it is:
you got 4 sets droping. Each has 6 weapon groups. Which means the chance you will get any Siroria staff is 4.15% out all the drops is and the chance it will be lets say siroria inferno staff is 1.3% so yeah i had to run 60+ times to get it, and on maelstrom arena i ran 160+ times to get my first bow
. RNG IS RNG. It's not cumulative. You do not get bigger chance by running multiple times just the same 4.15% for any siroria, and 1.3% for an inferno staff. Edited by Nezyr_Jezz on April 5, 2021 10:36AM2 -
Stahlor✭✭✭✭✭Siroria staff should have the same chance like a Relequen bow. Bow drops all the time, staff doesn't.1
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Nezyr_Jezz✭✭✭Siroria staff should have the same chance like a Relequen bow. Bow drops all the time, staff doesn't.
IT HAS THE SAME 4.15% TO DROP. LEARN MATH.
Dude im sorry but do you have problems with reading?
EACH SET SPECIFIC WEAPON GROUP HAS EXACTLY 4.15% chance to drop for every person. It is not cumulative for 12 people so you can't say its 30% based on RNG your temates had only because some of them had their luck and rolled 4.15% to get Relequen bow.
I ran 60+ times with Inventory insight addon seeing all drops and i saw the first siroria inferno staff after said 60+ runs with about 2-3 lighting staves and 1 frost staff somewhere in the process. It is that hard to get it.Edited by Nezyr_Jezz on April 5, 2021 10:47AM1 -
Stahlor✭✭✭✭✭Nezyr_Jezz wrote: »Siroria staff should have the same chance like a Relequen bow. Bow drops all the time, staff doesn't.
IT HAS THE SAME 4.15% TO DROP. LEARN MATH.
Dude im sorry but do you have problems with reading?
EACH SET SPECIFIC WEAPON GROUP HAS EXACTLY 4.15% chance to drop for every person. It is not cumulative for 12 people so you can't say its 30% based on RNG your temates had only because some of them had their luck and rolled 4.15% to get Relequen bow.
I don't have problems with reading. I'm just saying, that I doubt the drop chance being the same, due to the amount of Relequen bow drops we have been getting constantly, compared to the amount of Siroria staffs (any staff).2 -
zvavi✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Took me around 30 vVH runs for my first s/b, now I only lack the made to feel the perfected collections.
PS from my experience leadboard drops are less prone to the feeling of "I hate what I got", but maybe it is because even if it is not the piece I need I can decon it and get mats :shrug:0 -
magnusthorek✭✭✭✭✭
✭I have with me that dungeon/trial/arena sets RNG is rigged as in you get stamina-related gear more often if you completed the content as a Magicka player and vice-versa. Sure, there are players more comfortable with a Magicka character willing to farm some content faster with it to gear up a Stamina one, but as I can see among guilds, most of the times it's the opposite, Magicka players going after staves while Stamina players going after whatever their builds need.
Good for hybrids that get the best of two worlds...I am the very model of a scientist Salarian, I've studied species Turian, Asari, and Batarian.
I'm quite good at genetics (as a subset of biology) because I am an expert (which I know is a tautology).
My xenoscience studies range from urban to agrarian, I am the very model of a Scientist Salarian.0 -
Minnesinger✭✭✭✭✭
✭Minnesinger wrote: »In defence of ZOS there is no reason why or for what gain they would want to manipulate the drops.
[Quoted post was removed]
I just do not believe they have any need to manipulate the drops. Think about the chances of what might drop. I calculated quickly 17 different weapons. Your chances of getting the desidered weapon is 1 out of 17 at the start of every run. You should consider yourself lucky to get instantly the right one. So try something else.Edited by ZOS_ConnorG on April 6, 2021 1:36PMA is for Atronach.
B is for Bungler's Bane.
C is for Comberry.2 -
Nezyr_Jezz✭✭✭Minnesinger wrote: »Minnesinger wrote: »In defence of ZOS there is no reason why or for what gain they would want to manipulate the drops.
[Quoted post was removed]
I just do not believe they have any need to manipulate the drops. Think about the chances of what might drop. I calculated quickly 17 different weapons. Your chances of getting the desidered weapon is 1 out of 17 at the start of every run. You should consider yourself lucky to get instantly the right one. So try something else.
Unfortunately you are wrong. Its not 1/17. Its 1/6 and then another roll for specification of the weapon group. Which means its 16.6% for a bow, but 5.5% for a inferno staff.Edited by ZOS_ConnorG on April 6, 2021 1:36PM7 -
Minnesinger✭✭✭✭✭
✭Nezyr_Jezz wrote: »Minnesinger wrote: »Minnesinger wrote: »In defence of ZOS there is no reason why or for what gain they would want to manipulate the drops.
[Quoted post was removed]
I just do not believe they have any need to manipulate the drops. Think about the chances of what might drop. I calculated quickly 17 different weapons. Your chances of getting the desidered weapon is 1 out of 17 at the start of every run. You should consider yourself lucky to get instantly the right one. So try something else.
Unfortunately you are wrong. Its not 1/17. Its 1/6 and then another roll for specification of the weapon group. Which means its 16.6% for a bow, but 5.5% for a inferno staff.
Ah ok. That sounds actually much better than what I calculated. Thanks fo the info.Edited by ZOS_ConnorG on April 6, 2021 1:36PMA is for Atronach.
B is for Bungler's Bane.
C is for Comberry.0 -
INHUMANENATION✭✭✭Hi ASO team,
I understand and knew that you modified your so call "rng" but it is to the point of ridiculous. But can you explain that i got the Vateshran hollows bow for 8th times straight?
That probability is 1/17 * 8 times. I could win lottery with that probability.
Please could you just let your "rng" be real rng instead? Or introduce a token system that allow players to trade in undesired drops to token that they can trade in later?
I dont want to quite ESO now because I had a great guild with great people. But is the game is manipulated in such a nasty way. Statistics show the truth.
Its rng but some items have a higher percentage to drop. Like bows and resto staffs likely are the most likely. Destro in vma and dw in vva seem to be rarer.0 -
Matchimus✭✭✭✭✭I was farming MS from bosses in public dungeon & was surprised by the number of times the same armor item (rarely same trait) would drop within a few minutes of each other. The number of times this happened has me highly suspicious that rng is pure.0
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GreenHere✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭I was farming MS from bosses in public dungeon & was surprised by the number of times the same armor item (rarely same trait) would drop within a few minutes of each other. The number of times this happened has me highly suspicious that rng is pure.
Well, you are aware that certain sources only drop certain pieces though, right? You'll end up with a flood of shoulders from PD bosses but absolutely no boots, for instance (barring unique pieces ofc).
Info here, for those curious: https://en.uesp.net/wiki/Online:Overland_Sets3 -
Kwoung✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭On the plus side, ESO is nowhere as bad as Div2, where the drop rate of getting the item you want with the correct stats is somewhere in the 1/23,000,000 range.1 -
stefj68✭✭✭✭✭i did a run this morning, and i got an ice staff! like the 9th in 13 runs! in last week!!!! awesome RNG!!!!
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Viewsfrom6ix✭✭✭✭✭I just used Google's RNG for 1 to 17. I wanted to see how many tries it would take for me to get 1.
I got 1 on the 43rd try and gotten 17 eleven times.
That's RNG for you... Never get the one you want even when it doesn't matter.4 -
Soulshine✭✭✭✭✭
✭
Run it on a class that can't possible use what you are after and it will drop like rain. Need a staff, farm it on a StamBlade, Sword & Board, use a Sorc, etc... Works every time. The RNG is definitely *NOT* fully RNG.
This is the kind of unverified Voodoo Science that proves nothing and just fuels misleading conspiracy theories!
And I totally agree!
I have a total of 15 characters between NA and EU.
Since day one, I have always, without fail, gotten dps drops on my healer, healing drops on my dps, and dps drops on my tanks. For seven years. Always the same. That is NOT random. It is clearly systematic. Voodoo Science at it's finest, yes? I now make sure to take dps in to get my healer staves : P4 -
doesurmindglow✭✭✭✭✭It seems like a lot of gamblers' fallacy going on here. In reality though, the drop chance is the same every time you roll; so it doesn't actually get MORE likely that you'd get the drop you want with each successive drop. It's still 1/6 times 1/however many weapons there are of that type; so for an inferno staff in particular the odds are 1/6 * 1/3 = 1/18 every single time.
Bows have a higher drop chance because they're only one weapon type, so their odds are determined by the first roll alone.
That said I kinda hate RNG on principle, and wish more rewards in the game were actual choices instead of random drops, but "muh replayability" I guessEdited by doesurmindglow on April 6, 2021 12:32AMGuildmaster : The Wild Hunt (formerly Aka Baka) : AD PC/NA4 -
Diminish✭✭✭✭✭
✭Hi ASO team,
I understand and knew that you modified your so call "rng" but it is to the point of ridiculous. But can you explain that i got the Vateshran hollows bow for 8th times straight?
That probability is 1/17 * 8 times. I could win lottery with that probability.
Please could you just let your "rng" be real rng instead? Or introduce a token system that allow players to trade in undesired drops to token that they can trade in later?
I dont want to quite ESO now because I had a great guild with great people. But is the game is manipulated in such a nasty way. Statistics show the truth.
I got the Mace like 3 times in a row, and then got it from the leader board rewards that week, lol.0 -
SirAndy✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭ZOS rng is heavily weighted. Usually against you.
For Maelstrom, if i want a stamina weapon, i run with my magicka Sorc. If a want a staff, i run with my stamina NB.
Has always worked for me ...
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Kwoung✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭doesurmindglow wrote: »It seems like a lot of gamblers' fallacy going on here. In reality though, the drop chance is the same every time you roll; so it doesn't actually get MORE likely that you'd get the drop you want with each successive drop. It's still 1/6 times 1/however many weapons there are of that type; so for an inferno staff in particular the odds are 1/6 * 1/3 = 1/18 every single time.
Bows have a higher drop chance because they're only one weapon type, so their odds are determined by the first roll alone.
That said I kinda hate RNG on principle, and wish more rewards in the game were actual choices instead of random drops, but "muh replayability" I guess
You are assuming that the "random" drop rate is actually even across items and there are no other calculations going on that you are not aware of, like most games have. Players love to call it simple RNG and claim its just bad RNG, but I have yet to play a game that actually employs pure RNG, they all have extra calculations going on. Even back in EQ2, they had code that would award you a drop after x times of not getting it, which was nice RNG, although the number of times you actually hit that number before getting the drop was more common than not.
On the simplest level, many games employ a tactic of making rare drops for underplayed or under performing classes more common, to hopefully balance the board so to speak. They also give you stuff your current character can't use, in hopes that you might roll up a new char to use that weapon they just gave you, instead of you leaving the game. So there is a very good chance you are going up against that as well.4 -
ZOS_ConnorGmodGreetings all,
After review we have had to edit or remove several posts for various rule violations, mostly Conspiracy Theories and Non-Constructive Back and Forths. Ensure when engaging in a discussion that you keep said discussion civil, constructive, and within the rules. If you see a post that is baiting in nature do not engage it with further hostility and instead report it for the moderators to review.
You are welcome to review the Community Rules here.2 -
blxdes✭✭✭Viewsfrom6ix wrote: »I just used Google's RNG for 1 to 17. I wanted to see how many tries it would take for me to get 1.
I got 1 on the 43rd try and gotten 17 eleven times.
That's RNG for you... Never get the one you want even when it doesn't matter.
Except in this case, it's not random if certain pieces drop more often on characters that don't need the build. Have you noticed in game that the system recommends abilities based on your character? e.g. Mag or Stam - the information is already being used, so not too much of a stretch to assume that information is also used for "rng"0 -
ShawnLaRock✭✭✭✭✭
✭There is a prominent ESO Stream Team Member who is 130+ runs with no Inferno Staff drop. I don't understand how this is fair; or fun; or incentivizing - not just for the actual player... but for the hundreds of people witnessing the continued fails each night. All it does is tell people that their money would be wasted buying this product.
S.
Edit: I mis-quoted the number of runs. Today is #200. TWO-HUNDRED!!!Edited by ShawnLaRock on April 7, 2021 5:58PM3 -
Goregrinder✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭ShawnLaRock wrote: »There is a prominent ESO Stream Team Member who is 130+ runs with no Inferno Staff drop. I don't understand how this is fair; or fun; or incentivizing - not just for the actual player... but for the hundreds of people witnessing the continued fails each night. All it does is tell people that their money would be wasted buying this product.
S.
Main reason why I just PVP, and only PVE when I absolutely have to for gear. It was the same thing back when I actually raided in WoW during BC, and realized how much time I was wasting hoping for drops...just hoping. When I could instead just get other gear (PVP gear for WoW) and spend all of that extra time actually enjoying the game. I'm sure some people just LOVE running a dungeon or arean over and over and over and over on end to try and get that one item they want...not me lol. I'm not a sucker.2 -
Faded✭✭✭✭✭Run it on a class that can't possible use what you are after and it will drop like rain. Need a staff, farm it on a StamBlade, Sword & Board, use a Sorc, etc... Works every time. The RNG is definitely *NOT* fully RNG.
Smart Loot ™️
They implemented it a long time ago, but that was when these noticeable "quirks" started.
Smart Loot, and stingy loot tables, that yes they can and do weight. Grinding for a specific piece of gear in ESO is the opposite of fun.
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Kel✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭It's not just VH loot, but all loot.
Must've run Black Drake Villa over a hundred times by now with 3 other guild mates, all looking for that Kinra's necklace...not one of us has gotten it to drop.
Tons of rings, and all the Drake's rush gear you could ever (not) want.
Kinra's has been very hard to come by.
And yes, I'm running it on my mag sorc 😒0 -
Flamebait✭✭✭[snip]
On a slightly more serious not, RNG is RNG, boohoo. I have done a total of about 20 runs through MA on a sorc and have 3 inferno staffs, 2 lightning staffs, 2 ice staffs, 3 resto staffs, a shield and axe from SB combo, and a couple bows, no dual wield and no 2 handers. Others have run dozens of times without getting a staff at all, that's how RNG works. Is it fair, yes, is it a good system, sure, would a token system be better, very likely yes. But claiming that it is a rigged system is faulty logic because inherent RNG means you can literally run the same thing a thousand times and not once get the desired outcome, while someone else can run it once and get the perfect outcome first time.
[Edited for Baiting]Edited by Psiion on April 15, 2021 7:36PM3
