Thank you, that's awesome! How it is now it looks like if there's any difference at all it's not worth the cost of 100cp
I don't think it's broken. I think it provides an additional +10% resources above what we would get at 3/3 in the deconstruction passives.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/153tkynjLNvEY85RbQq2X1DAFeuE2MPL2iTTdjpdnuiY/edit?usp=sharing
data here.
I did some testing with 0/3, 1/3, 2/3 + Meticulous and it seems to "add one level" to the process.
When going to 3/3 + Meticulous there was a statistically larger... enough so that doing a binomial distribution analysis of it says that there is a 100% chance that the "normal" drop rate of 1.5% for green, 1.25% for blue, 0.75% for purple, and 0.5% for gold is NOT correct and that it is a higher value than that.
If they added +10% to the expected drop rates this would give 1.65% for green, 1.375 for blue, 0.825% for purple and 0.55% for gold, which is much closer to the observed values from this test of 300k materials that are jewelry.
DEFINITELY worth the passive star on your refining character that refines materials. Perhaps not by as much as we were hoping for, but it is still an improvement.
I don't think it's broken. I think it provides an additional +10% resources above what we would get at 3/3 in the deconstruction passives.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/153tkynjLNvEY85RbQq2X1DAFeuE2MPL2iTTdjpdnuiY/edit?usp=sharing
data here.
I did some testing with 0/3, 1/3, 2/3 + Meticulous and it seems to "add one level" to the process.
When going to 3/3 + Meticulous there was a statistically larger... enough so that doing a binomial distribution analysis of it says that there is a 100% chance that the "normal" drop rate of 1.5% for green, 1.25% for blue, 0.75% for purple, and 0.5% for gold is NOT correct and that it is a higher value than that.
If they added +10% to the expected drop rates this would give 1.65% for green, 1.375 for blue, 0.825% for purple and 0.55% for gold, which is much closer to the observed values from this test of 300k materials that are jewelry.
DEFINITELY worth the passive star on your refining character that refines materials. Perhaps not by as much as we were hoping for, but it is still an improvement.
Since you understand the stats here: how can we explain the last two rows in the first table in the OP? Three out of four types of grains were higher in the second row (invested but not slotted) than the third (invested and slotted).
Is the variation so high within the results of 100k mats that we can be better off without the node than with it?
Or would you say this node is actually being treated as a passive somehow, where just investing in it is enough to get the bonus?
I am looking at the spreadsheet you linked (thank you for the work!), but I can't tell if you tested this uninvested, invested but not slotted, and then slotted, or whether it was just uninvested vs. slotted.
I don't think it's broken. I think it provides an additional +10% resources above what we would get at 3/3 in the deconstruction passives.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/153tkynjLNvEY85RbQq2X1DAFeuE2MPL2iTTdjpdnuiY/edit?usp=sharing
data here.
I did some testing with 0/3, 1/3, 2/3 + Meticulous and it seems to "add one level" to the process.
When going to 3/3 + Meticulous there was a statistically larger... enough so that doing a binomial distribution analysis of it says that there is a 100% chance that the "normal" drop rate of 1.5% for green, 1.25% for blue, 0.75% for purple, and 0.5% for gold is NOT correct and that it is a higher value than that.
If they added +10% to the expected drop rates this would give 1.65% for green, 1.375 for blue, 0.825% for purple and 0.55% for gold, which is much closer to the observed values from this test of 300k materials that are jewelry.
DEFINITELY worth the passive star on your refining character that refines materials. Perhaps not by as much as we were hoping for, but it is still an improvement.
Since you understand the stats here: how can we explain the last two rows in the first table in the OP? Three out of four types of grains were higher in the second row (invested but not slotted) than the third (invested and slotted).
Is the variation so high within the results of 100k mats that we can be better off without the node than with it?
Or would you say this node is actually being treated as a passive somehow, where just investing in it is enough to get the bonus?
I am looking at the spreadsheet you linked (thank you for the work!), but I can't tell if you tested this uninvested, invested but not slotted, and then slotted, or whether it was just uninvested vs. slotted.
I only did it with it slotted, have not tried with the points in and not slotted
I don't think it's broken. I think it provides an additional +10% resources above what we would get at 3/3 in the deconstruction passives.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/153tkynjLNvEY85RbQq2X1DAFeuE2MPL2iTTdjpdnuiY/edit?usp=sharing
data here.
I did some testing with 0/3, 1/3, 2/3 + Meticulous and it seems to "add one level" to the process.
When going to 3/3 + Meticulous there was a statistically larger... enough so that doing a binomial distribution analysis of it says that there is a 100% chance that the "normal" drop rate of 1.5% for green, 1.25% for blue, 0.75% for purple, and 0.5% for gold is NOT correct and that it is a higher value than that.
If they added +10% to the expected drop rates this would give 1.65% for green, 1.375 for blue, 0.825% for purple and 0.55% for gold, which is much closer to the observed values from this test of 300k materials that are jewelry.
DEFINITELY worth the passive star on your refining character that refines materials. Perhaps not by as much as we were hoping for, but it is still an improvement.
Since you understand the stats here: how can we explain the last two rows in the first table in the OP? Three out of four types of grains were higher in the second row (invested but not slotted) than the third (invested and slotted).
Is the variation so high within the results of 100k mats that we can be better off without the node than with it?
Or would you say this node is actually being treated as a passive somehow, where just investing in it is enough to get the bonus?
I am looking at the spreadsheet you linked (thank you for the work!), but I can't tell if you tested this uninvested, invested but not slotted, and then slotted, or whether it was just uninvested vs. slotted.
I only did it with it slotted, have not tried with the points in and not slotted
Ok, thank you for the quick reply!
I don't think it's broken. I think it provides an additional +10% resources above what we would get at 3/3 in the deconstruction passives.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/153tkynjLNvEY85RbQq2X1DAFeuE2MPL2iTTdjpdnuiY/edit?usp=sharing
data here.
I did some testing with 0/3, 1/3, 2/3 + Meticulous and it seems to "add one level" to the process.
When going to 3/3 + Meticulous there was a statistically larger... enough so that doing a binomial distribution analysis of it says that there is a 100% chance that the "normal" drop rate of 1.5% for green, 1.25% for blue, 0.75% for purple, and 0.5% for gold is NOT correct and that it is a higher value than that.
If they added +10% to the expected drop rates this would give 1.65% for green, 1.375 for blue, 0.825% for purple and 0.55% for gold, which is much closer to the observed values from this test of 300k materials that are jewelry.
DEFINITELY worth the passive star on your refining character that refines materials. Perhaps not by as much as we were hoping for, but it is still an improvement.
Since you understand the stats here: how can we explain the last two rows in the first table in the OP? Three out of four types of grains were higher in the second row (invested but not slotted) than the third (invested and slotted).
Is the variation so high within the results of 100k mats that we can be better off without the node than with it?
Or would you say this node is actually being treated as a passive somehow, where just investing in it is enough to get the bonus?
I am looking at the spreadsheet you linked (thank you for the work!), but I can't tell if you tested this uninvested, invested but not slotted, and then slotted, or whether it was just uninvested vs. slotted.
I only did it with it slotted, have not tried with the points in and not slotted
Ok, thank you for the quick reply!
Just added in a spot where I did it with the points in and did NOT slot the star.
Drop rates were within the expected range of the original values.
I don't think it's broken. I think it provides an additional +10% resources above what we would get at 3/3 in the deconstruction passives.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/153tkynjLNvEY85RbQq2X1DAFeuE2MPL2iTTdjpdnuiY/edit?usp=sharing
data here.
I did some testing with 0/3, 1/3, 2/3 + Meticulous and it seems to "add one level" to the process.
When going to 3/3 + Meticulous there was a statistically larger... enough so that doing a binomial distribution analysis of it says that there is a 100% chance that the "normal" drop rate of 1.5% for green, 1.25% for blue, 0.75% for purple, and 0.5% for gold is NOT correct and that it is a higher value than that.
If they added +10% to the expected drop rates this would give 1.65% for green, 1.375 for blue, 0.825% for purple and 0.55% for gold, which is much closer to the observed values from this test of 300k materials that are jewelry.
DEFINITELY worth the passive star on your refining character that refines materials. Perhaps not by as much as we were hoping for, but it is still an improvement.
I don't think it's broken. I think it provides an additional +10% resources above what we would get at 3/3 in the deconstruction passives.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/153tkynjLNvEY85RbQq2X1DAFeuE2MPL2iTTdjpdnuiY/edit?usp=sharing
data here.
I did some testing with 0/3, 1/3, 2/3 + Meticulous and it seems to "add one level" to the process.
When going to 3/3 + Meticulous there was a statistically larger... enough so that doing a binomial distribution analysis of it says that there is a 100% chance that the "normal" drop rate of 1.5% for green, 1.25% for blue, 0.75% for purple, and 0.5% for gold is NOT correct and that it is a higher value than that.
If they added +10% to the expected drop rates this would give 1.65% for green, 1.375 for blue, 0.825% for purple and 0.55% for gold, which is much closer to the observed values from this test of 300k materials that are jewelry.
DEFINITELY worth the passive star on your refining character that refines materials. Perhaps not by as much as we were hoping for, but it is still an improvement.
10% is lrss than hoped for indeed.
Can you do a binomial distribution analysis on it not being 20%?
if 10% we'd have 1.1->1.5 on plentiharvest and 1.1 from this. For a 50% increase of temper influx into the market. Assuming no increased farming.
Will be interesting to see how +50% will impact temper prices..
very nice @tmbrinks
Definitely better with the stats than I am!
Is the "expected" drop rate what we would expect to see without the star?
I don't think it's broken. I think it provides an additional +10% resources above what we would get at 3/3 in the deconstruction passives.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/153tkynjLNvEY85RbQq2X1DAFeuE2MPL2iTTdjpdnuiY/edit?usp=sharing
data here.
I did some testing with 0/3, 1/3, 2/3 + Meticulous and it seems to "add one level" to the process.
When going to 3/3 + Meticulous there was a statistically larger... enough so that doing a binomial distribution analysis of it says that there is a 100% chance that the "normal" drop rate of 1.5% for green, 1.25% for blue, 0.75% for purple, and 0.5% for gold is NOT correct and that it is a higher value than that.
If they added +10% to the expected drop rates this would give 1.65% for green, 1.375 for blue, 0.825% for purple and 0.55% for gold, which is much closer to the observed values from this test of 300k materials that are jewelry.
DEFINITELY worth the passive star on your refining character that refines materials. Perhaps not by as much as we were hoping for, but it is still an improvement.
10% is lrss than hoped for indeed.
Can you do a binomial distribution analysis on it not being 20%?
if 10% we'd have 1.1->1.5 on plentiharvest and 1.1 from this. For a 50% increase of temper influx into the market. Assuming no increased farming.
Will be interesting to see how +50% will impact temper prices..
Done, very clearly NOT +20%
I don't think it's broken. I think it provides an additional +10% resources above what we would get at 3/3 in the deconstruction passives.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/153tkynjLNvEY85RbQq2X1DAFeuE2MPL2iTTdjpdnuiY/edit?usp=sharing
data here.
I did some testing with 0/3, 1/3, 2/3 + Meticulous and it seems to "add one level" to the process.
When going to 3/3 + Meticulous there was a statistically larger... enough so that doing a binomial distribution analysis of it says that there is a 100% chance that the "normal" drop rate of 1.5% for green, 1.25% for blue, 0.75% for purple, and 0.5% for gold is NOT correct and that it is a higher value than that.
If they added +10% to the expected drop rates this would give 1.65% for green, 1.375 for blue, 0.825% for purple and 0.55% for gold, which is much closer to the observed values from this test of 300k materials that are jewelry.
DEFINITELY worth the passive star on your refining character that refines materials. Perhaps not by as much as we were hoping for, but it is still an improvement.
10% is lrss than hoped for indeed.
Can you do a binomial distribution analysis on it not being 20%?
if 10% we'd have 1.1->1.5 on plentiharvest and 1.1 from this. For a 50% increase of temper influx into the market. Assuming no increased farming.
Will be interesting to see how +50% will impact temper prices..
Done, very clearly NOT +20%
thank you!
I guess they can always buff it in a future patch if temper prices are bot sufficiently affected.
I don't think it's broken. I think it provides an additional +10% resources above what we would get at 3/3 in the deconstruction passives.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/153tkynjLNvEY85RbQq2X1DAFeuE2MPL2iTTdjpdnuiY/edit?usp=sharing
data here.
I did some testing with 0/3, 1/3, 2/3 + Meticulous and it seems to "add one level" to the process.
When going to 3/3 + Meticulous there was a statistically larger... enough so that doing a binomial distribution analysis of it says that there is a 100% chance that the "normal" drop rate of 1.5% for green, 1.25% for blue, 0.75% for purple, and 0.5% for gold is NOT correct and that it is a higher value than that.
If they added +10% to the expected drop rates this would give 1.65% for green, 1.375 for blue, 0.825% for purple and 0.55% for gold, which is much closer to the observed values from this test of 300k materials that are jewelry.
DEFINITELY worth the passive star on your refining character that refines materials. Perhaps not by as much as we were hoping for, but it is still an improvement.
10% is lrss than hoped for indeed.
Can you do a binomial distribution analysis on it not being 20%?
if 10% we'd have 1.1->1.5 on plentiharvest and 1.1 from this. For a 50% increase of temper influx into the market. Assuming no increased farming.
Will be interesting to see how +50% will impact temper prices..
Done, very clearly NOT +20%
thank you!
I guess they can always buff it in a future patch if temper prices are bot sufficiently affected.
I do have to be skeptical whether the devs try to micromanage drop rates to influence prices on the various servers. Prices are already so disparate depending on server (not just platform) that it would seem futile. And the fairly sizeable increase to prices within an individual megaserver (I can only speak for PC-NA), as well as the steady observed drop rate of gold mats over the years, suggests that the devs don't necessarily interfere with drop rates in an attempt to impact the market.
marshill88 wrote: »Met Dis is not working well on me. Slotted, I get the same amount of iridium grains on blue rings as I did before it was slotted. I can't see a difference at all, though I have not done a thorough analysis.
marshill88 wrote: »Met Dis is not working well on me. Slotted, I get the same amount of iridium grains on blue rings as I did before it was slotted. I can't see a difference at all, though I have not done a thorough analysis.
marshill88 wrote: »Met Dis is not working well on me. Slotted, I get the same amount of iridium grains on blue rings as I did before it was slotted. I can't see a difference at all, though I have not done a thorough analysis.
When you say "the same amount," what is your sample size? For a 10-12% increase on an already small chance (if deconning is like the refining results with MD), you will need a thorough analysis to get results that are significant (i.e. beyond the variation of RNG). It isn't something that will be noticeable as you're deconning or refining, since decon is limited to your inventory and bank size and refining is limited to 10k at a time, but the refining part has already been proven on both PTS and live using hundreds of thousands of raw mats.
I haven't seen sample sizes that big for deconning, but you would need something along those lines to show whether MD is actually working for decon like it does for refining. It should, but it would take a large sample size to prove it either way.
marshill88 wrote: »marshill88 wrote: »Met Dis is not working well on me. Slotted, I get the same amount of iridium grains on blue rings as I did before it was slotted. I can't see a difference at all, though I have not done a thorough analysis.
When you say "the same amount," what is your sample size? For a 10-12% increase on an already small chance (if deconning is like the refining results with MD), you will need a thorough analysis to get results that are significant (i.e. beyond the variation of RNG). It isn't something that will be noticeable as you're deconning or refining, since decon is limited to your inventory and bank size and refining is limited to 10k at a time, but the refining part has already been proven on both PTS and live using hundreds of thousands of raw mats.
I haven't seen sample sizes that big for deconning, but you would need something along those lines to show whether MD is actually working for decon like it does for refining. It should, but it would take a large sample size to prove it either way.
I'm going to now document every ring I disassemble from here on out, and when I have a large sample size, I will be back, but my impressions are it is barely anything. Even if it actually does have a slight benefit, "meticulous" is a word that should not be used by ESO for something so unreliable. It should be renamed "haphazard disassembly"
PC-EU chromiums have gone from 70k to 140k in the last year.
So at least platform wide.
Dunno about consoles.
marshill88 wrote: »marshill88 wrote: »Met Dis is not working well on me. Slotted, I get the same amount of iridium grains on blue rings as I did before it was slotted. I can't see a difference at all, though I have not done a thorough analysis.
When you say "the same amount," what is your sample size? For a 10-12% increase on an already small chance (if deconning is like the refining results with MD), you will need a thorough analysis to get results that are significant (i.e. beyond the variation of RNG). It isn't something that will be noticeable as you're deconning or refining, since decon is limited to your inventory and bank size and refining is limited to 10k at a time, but the refining part has already been proven on both PTS and live using hundreds of thousands of raw mats.
I haven't seen sample sizes that big for deconning, but you would need something along those lines to show whether MD is actually working for decon like it does for refining. It should, but it would take a large sample size to prove it either way.
I'm going to now document every ring I disassemble from here on out, and when I have a large sample size, I will be back, but my impressions are it is barely anything. Even if it actually does have a slight benefit, "meticulous" is a word that should not be used by ESO for something so unreliable. It should be renamed "haphazard disassembly"