ZoS - Please release actual numbers on refining.

Unknown_Redemption · March 2020

About 8 weeks ago I started playing with raw material refining; on a very large scale. No, I did not keep a spread sheet - but I do have some concerns.

I am refining 10,000 raws at a time and getting a return rate of approximately 1 gold "mat" per 300. I am on my main crafter, who is is completely maxed on knowledge/research. However, there is another individual in my guild who consistently pulls 1 gold per 100. In short, I am losing millions and he is gaining millions.

I can appreciate large data but the burden should not be on ESO players. Kudos to those who have their detailed threads here. However, I'm also not interested in someone who tracks their own data as it will always fall short when compared to actual game code.

So why are the developers refusing to release fundamental details to the player base? Being convoluted, especially in crafting, does not make for a more interesting game. It only drives people to develop speculation on what is actually needed and causes mass confusion.

Veinblood1965 · March 2020

Unknown_Redemption wrote: »

About 8 weeks ago I started playing with raw material refining; on a very large scale. No, I did not keep a spread sheet - but I do have some concerns.

I am refining 10,000 raws at a time and getting a return rate of approximately 1 gold "mat" per 300. I am on my main crafter, who is is completely maxed on knowledge/research. However, there is another individual in my guild who consistently pulls 1 gold per 100. In short, I am losing millions and he is gaining millions.

I'd be curious to know how you verified your guildie is pulling one per 100 mats. I've never read any posts with that high of a percentage, are you sure he or she isn't pulling your leg? I averaged about 200 per one gold mat last year prior to multi-refining however since i started many at a time it's been about 300 to 400 per since I started doing them in bulk usually about 400 to 600 at a time.I'm thinking it's an RNG thing in bulk when you select it it sets to a random percent for the entire bunch and doing them one at a time resets each time. Technically it should be the same however if you think about it when refining one at a time you see a string of bad luck and don't get a gold until about 300 mats>>

One click at a time
Good RNG>>600 mats refined not in bulk but one click at a time for 60 clicks like it used to be equals 3 gold since you reset the RNG each time and get an average run
Bad RNG>>600 mats refined not in bulk but one click at a time like for 60 clicks it used to be equals 1 gold since the RNG was sucky and was just bad luck

Bulk
Good RNG>>600 mats refined in bulk with one click equals three qold
Bad RNG>>600 mats refined in bulk equals 1 gold
Bad RNG>>600 mats refined in bulk equals 1 gold
Bad RNG>>600 mats refined in bulk equals 1 gold

I'd think ZoS altered the algorithm to reset the RNG to be more beneficial otherwise it could be 60 bulk clicks in a row ouch! It might be hard to do that without also affecting the single clickers.

Still doesn't explain how your friend is getting such good results however.

Unknown_Redemption · March 2020

Veinblood1965 wrote: »

Unknown_Redemption wrote: »

I'd be curious to know how you verified your guildie is pulling one per 100 mats. I've never read any posts with that high of a percentage, are you sure he or she isn't pulling your leg? I averaged about 200 per one gold mat last year prior to multi-refining however since i started many at a time it's been about 300 to 400 per since I started doing them in bulk.

Through MM, I can see purchases and sales. Granted we are not in 5 of the same guilds, nor am I accounting for self farming, but his gold temper sales and raw mat purchases are lining up.

Taleof2Cities · March 2020

There’s no other explanation other than you’ve run into a temporary string of bad luck, @Unknown_Redemption.

Sorry to hear it’s happened to you.

Sounds like you’ve read the other threads at least ... including the refine details that @tmbrinks has published.

ZOS isn’t going to publish their rate.

But if they did, you’d see something in line with what’s in the other published threads.

tmbrinks · March 2020

Veinblood1965 wrote: »

I'd be curious to know how you verified your guildie is pulling one per 100 mats. I've never read any posts with that high of a percentage, are you sure he or she isn't pulling your leg? I averaged about 200 per one gold mat last year prior to multi-refining however since i started many at a time it's been about 300 to 400 per since I started doing them in bulk usually about 400 to 600 at a time.I'm thinking it's an RNG thing in bulk when you select it it sets to a random percent for the entire bunch and doing them one at a time resets each time. Technically it should be the same however if you think about it when refining one at a time you see a string of bad luck and don't get a gold until about 300 mats>>

One click at a time
Good RNG>>600 mats refined not in bulk but one click at a time for 60 clicks like it used to be equals 3 gold since you reset the RNG each time and get an average run
Bad RNG>>600 mats refined not in bulk but one click at a time like for 60 clicks it used to be equals 1 gold since the RNG was sucky and was just bad luck

Bulk
Good RNG>>600 mats refined in bulk with one click equals three qold
Bad RNG>>600 mats refined in bulk equals 1 gold
Bad RNG>>600 mats refined in bulk equals 1 gold
Bad RNG>>600 mats refined in bulk equals 1 gold

I'd think ZoS altered the algorithm to reset the RNG to be more beneficial otherwise it could be 60 bulk clicks in a row ouch! It might be hard to do that without also affecting the single clickers.

Still doesn't explain how your friend is getting such good results however.

Tried to fix the misquoting...

This explanation makes my math brain hurt. The game absolutely computes each refine of 10 independently to get the amount. Otherwise, if you refine any bulk, you get either a 0% or a 100% drop rate if they based it off one single random number, and multiplied by the number of refines.

There is no "resetting" RNG. It's random.

I am not trying to be a jerk, but this line of thinking is patently wrong. It's flawed. And everybody needs to know that this is definitively NOT the case, and NOT how it works. The logic you present doesn't even fit with your hypothesis (and the results you say would happen)

As far as the "friend" who's getting a 1 in 100 drop rate.. it's either bias (and they're exaggerating), or they're refining more materials than you to get more.

I have compared my data with other bulk refiners, people who have done as much, if not more materials. We are literally talking about sample sizes in the tens of millions at this point.

There is a 15% chance per refine (of 10) to get a green temper
There is a 12.5% chance per refine (of 10) to get a blue temper
There is a 7.5% chance per refine (of 10) to get a purple temper
There is a 5% chance per refine (of 10) to get a gold temper

(at this point, the margin of error on these numbers is absurdly thin, and it's unlikely that the ACTUAL drop rates are something like 14.8% instead of 15%, since that would be a dumb thing to do. Occam's Razor and all.)

Unknown_Redemption · March 2020

Thank you, but I still wish ZoS would just release the drop chance percentages - formally. There is no reason not to.

idk · March 2020

Unknown_Redemption wrote: »

Thank you, but I still wish ZoS would just release the drop chance percentages - formally. There is no reason not to.

No reason they should as we already know what it is and it has not changed since the game launched. Do you really think they would explain it any better than tmbrinks did in their post here? Of course not.

Game devs do not release such information just as they do not release formulas for spells and abilities. Players figure these things out and it is not hard to do.

Tatanko · March 2020

tmbrinks wrote: »

I have compared my data with other bulk refiners, people who have done as much, if not more materials. We are literally talking about sample sizes in the tens of millions at this point.
...
(at this point, the margin of error on these numbers is absurdly thin ... )

As always, thank you for your tireless efforts to gently correct misinformation with hard data

Infixo · March 2020

Unknown_Redemption wrote: »

I am refining 10,000 raws at a time and getting a return rate of approximately 1 gold "mat" per 300.

You should be getting 1 out of 500. You have a better ratio than all of us and you complain? lol

Septimus_Magna · March 2020

I never refine in bulk tbh, just refine one at a time, it yields much better materials.

Infixo · March 2020

Unknown_Redemption wrote: »

However, I'm also not interested in someone who tracks their own data as it will always fall short when compared to actual game code.

Actually, it's the other way around. The data gathered by the people shows the "real" probability, whereas game code or dev info will just tell about "intended" or "desired" probability. In other words - no matter what they will say, in reality you will still get the ratios as discovered via countless tests by the players.

Tatanko · March 2020

Septimus_Magna wrote: »

I never refine in bulk tbh, just refine one at a time, it yields much better materials.

Do you have data to prove your anecdotal (read: superstitious) statement?

Alinhbo_Tyaka · March 2020

Septimus_Magna wrote: »

I never refine in bulk tbh, just refine one at a time, it yields much better materials.

That's not what I've seen. The numbers for each type of temper per 100 stack appears to be the same for me.

Feric51 · March 2020

Infixo wrote: »

Unknown_Redemption wrote: »

I am refining 10,000 raws at a time and getting a return rate of approximately 1 gold "mat" per 300.

You should be getting 1 out of 500. You have a better ratio than all of us and you complain? lol

A 5% chance would be 1 gold temper per 200 raw mats, not 500 raw mats.

1 (Temper) / 20 (Refines [10 raw mats per refine = 200 raw mats consumed]) = 0.05 = 5%

I explicitly trust @tmbrinks data sets as they are methodically tracked and detailed.