Undaunted store issues

furiouslog · September 2019

So, for 5 keys, you are basically paying to increase your chances of getting the set you require, and the expected value of the keys relative to a positive hit on your set is marginal at 50/50. I purchased 9 of the Dom/EG coffers, in search of EG shoulders, one after the other, and 8 of the 9 contained Dom shoulders. The probability of that happening if it were a true coin flip is less than 2 percent.

So my question is this: are the loot tables adjusted in favor of sets in some way that is not apparent to me? It’s crazy that I blew 45 keys to get one pair of shoulders that was the right set but wrong type/trait, and I now have a pretty high level of confidence that it’s not random. I had to run 23 vet dungeons on HM to get one piece that I need to transmute and work around anyway.

Anyone else experience something similar when spending multiple groups of 5 keys?

Dusk_Coven · September 2019

Whew! I was about to spend some keys to look for a Medium Iceheart Shoulder.
Now I'm glad I saved my keys for things that won't ever show up at the Golden Vendor, like maybe style pages.
Luckily the shoulders are for a crafter alt, so I can just wait for the Golden Vendor.

VaranisArano · September 2019

The RNG gods know which one you want.

More seriously, it's pretty even in the long run, RNG wise, but the nature of RNG is that it doesnt often feel that way in small sample sizes.

kargen27 · September 2019

There was another thread started a few days ago that asked this same question. You had a bad run of luck. I've needed a shoulder piece for two sets. First set I got the shoulder I wanted with the trait and weight I wanted first try. The 2nd set I got the piece I wanted in the weight I wanted 2nd try but had to change the trait myself.

If 100 people spent forty keys you it wouldn't be really unusual to expect three of them to get all of one set.

yRaven · September 2019

I used 15 keys to get iceheart on specific chest, got it... 3 times... ON THE SAME WEIGHT... ALL WRONG

Basically 3 days farming as i only have 2 chars, i want Iceheart Medium, and only got it Light, tried to go with random, used 3 keys got Grothdarr, 3 times... ALL ON DIFFERENT WEIGHT... I love and hate my life

furiouslog · September 2019

kargen27 wrote: »

There was another thread started a few days ago that asked this same question. You had a bad run of luck. I've needed a shoulder piece for two sets. First set I got the shoulder I wanted with the trait and weight I wanted first try. The 2nd set I got the piece I wanted in the weight I wanted 2nd try but had to change the trait myself.

If 100 people spent forty keys you it wouldn't be really unusual to expect three of them to get all of one set.

You've reframed the question, but in actuality, it would be odd for that to happen. The probability of getting 8 of the same set on 8 draws is 0.39 percent. I'm not going to build a decision tree, but if 100 people pull 8 sets each, the probability of 3 pulling 8 of the same set is still pretty low. It would be unusual for 1 of the 100 to pull 8 of the same set. It would be improbable for 3 of them to do so.

I do statistics for a living, so I get small sample sizes, but for a sample of 9, that is enough to reject a null hypothesis that the outcome is random at a pretty decent level of confidence. 9 flips gives me a standard deviation of 1.5. The expected value is 4.5 Earthgore shoulders, and two standard deviations puts that at a range of 1.5 to 7.5 Earthgore shoulders. Given that my hypothesis is that the loot tables are adjusted out of favor relative to intention based on available participant information to provide an incentive to go on more dungeon runs, most statisticians with this information would reasonably conclude that the loot algorithm is biased against intention with a level of confidence exceeding 97%. Even if we don't accept my hypothesis, and we are just trying to detect unintentional mayhem, it's better than a 95% confidence level that the result is not random.

I know from personal experience that billions of dollars have been invested by executives who had less statistical confidence to go on, and I think that something smells about this whole thing. When I run vMA over and over with no inferno staff, it's still in the realm of probabilistic outcomes. This Earthgore scenario is improbable enough to be suspicious of the assumption of true randomness. Or maybe I am just super unlucky. But I don't think so. The numbers don't lie.

yRaven · September 2019

yRaven wrote: »

I used 15 keys to get iceheart on specific chest, got it... 3 times... ON THE SAME WEIGHT... ALL WRONG

Basically 3 days farming as i only have 2 chars, i want Iceheart Medium, and only got it Light, tried to go with random, used 3 keys got Grothdarr, 3 times... ALL ON DIFFERENT WEIGHT... I love and hate my life

Again 5 keys on specific chest, again Iceheart Light, ZoS is watching me, i'm sure now

Huyen · September 2019

furiouslog wrote: »

So, for 5 keys, you are basically paying to increase your chances of getting the set you require, and the expected value of the keys relative to a positive hit on your set is marginal at 50/50. I purchased 9 of the Dom/EG coffers, in search of EG shoulders, one after the other, and 8 of the 9 contained Dom shoulders. The probability of that happening if it were a true coin flip is less than 2 percent.

So my question is this: are the loot tables adjusted in favor of sets in some way that is not apparent to me? It’s crazy that I blew 45 keys to get one pair of shoulders that was the right set but wrong type/trait, and I now have a pretty high level of confidence that it’s not random. I had to run 23 vet dungeons on HM to get one piece that I need to transmute and work around anyway.

Anyone else experience something similar when spending multiple groups of 5 keys?

RNG is still coded by humans. True RNG isnt to be expected unless you know how to code a program to make selfsuffiecient choices. Untill then: true rng doesnt excist.

gatekeeper13 · September 2019

I had more chance in getting what I wanted from random chests than from specific dungeon chests. Spent 100 keys in SotH and DB chests to get heavy Thurvokun and medium Velidreth shoulders. Got none. Spent less than 30 in random chests. Got both. Never bought a dungeon specific chest after that.

MasterSpatula · September 2019

ZOS's RNG has a truly stunning capacity to form patterns. Every now and then, this works in your favor.

But not today.

yRaven · September 2019

gatekeeper13 wrote: »

I had more chance in getting what I wanted from random chests than from specific dungeon chests. Spent 100 keys in SotH and DB chests to get heavy Thurvokun and medium Velidreth shoulders. Got none. Spent less than 30 in random chests. Got both. Never bought a dungeon specific chest after that.

If tomorrow it drops light again, i will try go full on random, BECAUSE GOD 4 TIMES ON ONLY LIGHT

Edit: It's was not light today :DDDDD IT WAS HEAAAVVVVVVYYYYYYYYYY >:(

yRaven · September 2019

Iceheart is on Golden Vendor, Divines be blessed

gatekeeper13 · September 2019

yRaven wrote: »

If tomorrow it drops light again, i will try go full on random, BECAUSE GOD 4 TIMES ON ONLY LIGHT

Edit: It's was not light today :DDDDD IT WAS HEAAAVVVVVVYYYYYYYYYY >:(

5-keys chests are a joke...

CelticStones · September 2019

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/467123/til-monster-helm-shoulder-weights-dont-matter

yRaven · September 2019

CelticStones wrote: »

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/467123/til-monster-helm-shoulder-weights-dont-matter

Undaunted my Friend, Undaunted, also because some SETS don't drop on others weights, like Siroria and etc... so you're obligate to take Heavy and Medium Monster Set to get the buff of Undaunted and as a DPS Mage i don't like to be under 18K HP

Dusk_Coven · September 2019

This is why SWTOR is moving toward a half-RNG half-progression loot drop. It guarantees that any bad luck streak can only last so long.
Maybe if we can trade any two shoulders back for a key.

FrancisCrawford · September 2019

furiouslog wrote: »

kargen27 wrote: »

There was another thread started a few days ago that asked this same question. You had a bad run of luck. I've needed a shoulder piece for two sets. First set I got the shoulder I wanted with the trait and weight I wanted first try. The 2nd set I got the piece I wanted in the weight I wanted 2nd try but had to change the trait myself.

If 100 people spent forty keys you it wouldn't be really unusual to expect three of them to get all of one set.

You've reframed the question, but in actuality, it would be odd for that to happen. The probability of getting 8 of the same set on 8 draws is 0.39 percent. I'm not going to build a decision tree, but if 100 people pull 8 sets each, the probability of 3 pulling 8 of the same set is still pretty low. It would be unusual for 1 of the 100 to pull 8 of the same set. It would be improbable for 3 of them to do so.

I do statistics for a living, so I get small sample sizes, but for a sample of 9, that is enough to reject a null hypothesis that the outcome is random at a pretty decent level of confidence. 9 flips gives me a standard deviation of 1.5. The expected value is 4.5 Earthgore shoulders, and two standard deviations puts that at a range of 1.5 to 7.5 Earthgore shoulders. Given that my hypothesis is that the loot tables are adjusted out of favor relative to intention based on available participant information to provide an incentive to go on more dungeon runs, most statisticians with this information would reasonably conclude that the loot algorithm is biased against intention with a level of confidence exceeding 97%. Even if we don't accept my hypothesis, and we are just trying to detect unintentional mayhem, it's better than a 95% confidence level that the result is not random.

I know from personal experience that billions of dollars have been invested by executives who had less statistical confidence to go on, and I think that something smells about this whole thing. When I run vMA over and over with no inferno staff, it's still in the realm of probabilistic outcomes. This Earthgore scenario is improbable enough to be suspicious of the assumption of true randomness. Or maybe I am just super unlucky. But I don't think so. The numbers don't lie.

But would you have posted this thread if you'd gotten a more balanced result? Do other people who get more balanced results start threads like this? You surely see where I'm going with that line of discussion.

furiouslog · September 2019

FrancisCrawford wrote: »

But would you have posted this thread if you'd gotten a more balanced result? Do other people who get more balanced results start threads like this? You surely see where I'm going with that line of discussion.

No, I would not have, because there would be no cause for concern. I don't follow your train of thought. You appear to suggest that because there are only a few threads like this, that it does not happen often enough to be biased. I would disagree with that presumption, as under-reporting of defects is a prevalent issue in tracking defective products, even when it's something that endangers the public health (e.g.food poisoning).

On top of that, most people would stop once they got the shoulder they wanted. It could be an unfair algorithm and still difficult to detect because people do not continue to feed keys to get a representative sample, and merely curse RNJesus for their bad luck without continuing, which would also account for under-reporting. They also might not have enough keys to feed, so they run out before they get their shoulder, curse, RNJesus, and move on. There are plenty of reasons that could drive under-reporting. I have yet to hear a mathematical argument that interprets these data differently.

ruengdet2515 · September 2019

1. Stormhaven

not again then teleport to

2. Grahwood

not again then teleport to

3. Deshaan

not again then teleport to any choice or stop and run pug/trial/quest and come back again.