Tempering Alloy drop chance

VadimAleks · November 2017

I'm not a professional craftsman or resource farmer. Usually, I just do my own business, resources accumulate and when they become more than 1000 (usually it happens once a month) - I recycle them. Thus, I have the opportunity to collect statistics on the chance of falling out of various materials. Until recently (approximately to Horns dlc), the Tempering Alloy drop chance was 8% and the Dreugh Wax drop chance was 4%. This was fair, since Dreugh Wax drop from 2 types of resources(cloth+leather) and Tempering Alloy from one (ore). But after the Horns DLC everything changed. The chance of the Tempering Alloy now also 4%.
Since the Tempering Alloy has always been a more valuable resource (weapon upgrade+armor upgrade) - this is a HUGE nerf. ZOS provokes an increase in the number of bots in the game.

Turelus · November 2017

Do you have your data recorded anywhere? As I think you're going to need to produce some tracked data with decent samples before anything can be confirmed.

Tempers have been criticized of being nerfed many times because of how the RNG works and players pick up on patterns within it.

JasonSilverSpring · November 2017

Likely just a run of bad luck. One needs a lot of data to calculate the drop rate. Also, I doubt the rate is even 4%. If I get more than one refining 100 mats I consider myself lucky.

Vapirko · November 2017

Idk about all that but the cost of tempering allows is insane. I can see paying 3k per alloy, the amount of money of spent on them is ridiculous and it’s mostly just wpns.

redspecter23 · November 2017

If you suspect any sort of nerf, you'd have to bring actual numbers and data. Anecdotal evidence isn't very relevant. Just because you "feel" something is off, doesn't mean it is. 1000 resources per month isn't statistically meaningful at all. Many players will refine that in a day.

Apache_Kid · November 2017

For me, i always get the most Wax, followed, by Alloys. But the Rosin feels like it has the lowest drop rate.

VadimAleks · November 2017

There was no point in saving dates and data. I did not expect a nerf and developers can always say "you just did not get lucky." But it is stable, month after month, the drop rate was 8% - until August.
Then, when I first got 4% - I thought "no luck". But this "unlucky" continued again and again, time after time. Yes, with a small number of attempts, it could have been "lucky" several times in a row, and then 50 attempts were wasted. But at large intervals, 150-200 attempts (1500-2000 units of ore) - the chances were always the same.
And I could not know a year ago that I needed to save these results to confirm the nerf, which no one could foresee then.

Bobby_V_Rockit · November 2017

Apache_Kid wrote: »

For me, i always get the most Wax, followed, by Alloys. But the Rosin feels like it has the lowest drop rate.

Opposite for me, I get 8-12 rosins a week and maybe 3-4 alloy, I usually sell off 8 rosins a week

Apache_Kid · November 2017

Bobby_V_Rockit wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

For me, i always get the most Wax, followed, by Alloys. But the Rosin feels like it has the lowest drop rate.

Opposite for me, I get 8-12 rosins a week and maybe 3-4 alloy, I usually sell off 8 rosins a week

Hah. Funny how that works isn't it? Out of curiosity what platform are you on? Xbox for me.

Bobby_V_Rockit · November 2017

Apache_Kid wrote: »

Bobby_V_Rockit wrote: »

Apache_Kid wrote: »

For me, i always get the most Wax, followed, by Alloys. But the Rosin feels like it has the lowest drop rate.

Opposite for me, I get 8-12 rosins a week and maybe 3-4 alloy, I usually sell off 8 rosins a week

Hah. Funny how that works isn't it? Out of curiosity what platform are you on? Xbox for me.

PS4 eu, ah well, easy money haha

fioskal · November 2017

I've been keeping track of refining chances since I've started playing, and I'm about 95% sure drop rates for the 3 gold upgrade mats are 5%. Of course I can't be sure because my sample sizes are relatively small (I reset my spreadsheet every patch), but this seems to be the case.

LadyDestiny · November 2017

I was noticing this as well. I rarely get tempers compared to dreugh wax and rosin. Example...today I refined 112 ancestor silk and got 3 wax. (Yeah lucky). Refined 300 ruby ash and got 2 rosin. Refined 600 rubedite and got ZERO tempers. The thing is it is not just today. This has been going on for as long as I can remember. Drop rates are horrible with ore and needs to be fixed.

JasonSilverSpring · November 2017

LadyDestiny wrote: »

I was noticing this as well. I rarely get tempers compared to dreugh wax and rosin. Example...today I refined 112 ancestor silk and got 3 wax. (Yeah lucky). Refined 300 ruby ash and got 2 rosin. Refined 600 rubedite and got ZERO tempers. The thing is it is not just today. This has been going on for as long as I can remember. Drop rates are horrible with ore and needs to be fixed.

Do you have the passive maxed that improves the refinement in blacksmithing?

My experience is that gold upgrade mats drop evenly over time across clothing, woodworking and blacksmithing.

Maybe you are just having a bad run of RNG?

duendology · November 2017

With all the passives maxed I know observe with amusement the drop rate of "golden" materials. There are days when I refine like 400 ore..and get NONE alloy... and days when I refine about 150..and get 3.
Since my character is mostly "wood" based.. I focus on wax and rosin...and sell most of alloys. and keeping two "sets" just in case.

the ESO logarithm system likes my character though..I am lucky to find maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaany kutas. haha

helediron · November 2017

I divided my long-term statistics to each profession.

So, they all have same droprate. When eyeballing the whole series, drop rates have not changed in three years.

JasonSilverSpring · November 2017

helediron wrote: »

I divided my long-term statistics to each profession.

So, they all have same droprate. When eyeballing the whole series, drop rates have not changed in three years.

So that is basically 0.5% which sounds about right unlike the 5% someone else quoted.

Thank you for the detailed data.

helediron · November 2017

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

helediron wrote: »

I divided my long-term statistics to each profession.

So, they all have same droprate. When eyeballing the whole series, drop rates have not changed in three years.

So that is basically 0.5% which sounds about right unlike the 5% someone else quoted.

Thank you for the detailed data.

We usually say 5% because we calculate from refines, not mats.

JasonSilverSpring · November 2017

helediron wrote: »

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

helediron wrote: »

I divided my long-term statistics to each profession.

So, they all have same droprate. When eyeballing the whole series, drop rates have not changed in three years.

So that is basically 0.5% which sounds about right unlike the 5% someone else quoted.

Thank you for the detailed data.

We usually say 5% because we calculate from refines, not mats.

Ah, that makes sense now. Thanks.