The Elder Scrolls Online

Maintenance for the week of April 6:
• PC/Mac: No maintenance – April 6

Is this where I post Undaunted Key rants?

Leave a Reply
  • newtinmpls
    newtinmpls
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭
    Saint314Louis1985 wrote: »
    one time i dumped 6 keys in a row and got 6 warden shoulders. I was definitely.... mad you could say.

    If you get two in a row... just stop it!

    Finally I got a chokethorn pauldrons to play with. It's sturdy or some such, but I finally got one!!!

    Happy dance!
    Tenesi Faryon of Telvanni - Dunmer Sorceress who deliberately sought sacrifice into Cold Harbor to rescue her beloved.
    Hisa Ni Caemaire - Altmer Sorceress, member of the Order Draconis and Adept of the House of Dibella.
    Broken Branch Toothmaul - goblin (for my goblin characters, I use either orsimer or bosmer templates) Templar, member of the Order Draconis and persistently unskilled pickpocket
    Mol gro Durga - Orsimer Socerer/Battlemage who died the first time when the Nibenay Valley chapterhouse of the Order Draconis was destroyed, then went back to Cold Harbor to rescue his second/partner who was still captive. He overestimated his resistance to the hopelessness of Oblivion, about to give up, and looked up to see the golden glow of atherius surrounding a beautiful young woman who extended her hand to him and said "I can help you". He carried Fianna Kingsley out of Cold Harbor on his shoulder. He carried Alvard Stower under one arm. He also irritated the Prophet who had intended the portal for only Mol and Lyris.
    ***
    Order Draconis - well c'mon there has to be some explanation for all those dragon tattoos.
    House of Dibella - If you have ever seen or read "Memoirs of a Geisha" that's just the beginning...
    Nibenay Valley Chapterhouse - Where now stands only desolate ground and a dolmen there once was a thriving community supporting one of the major chapterhouses of the Order Draconis
  • Bobby_V_Rockit
    Bobby_V_Rockit
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭
    Transmutation soon, the undaunted key debacle will be a thing of the past!
  • tiamak
    tiamak
    ✭✭✭
    You got your guts shredded by the much feared Gambler's Fallacy. Those dumb chests don't remember what you've pulled out of them for the first 80 times. So, your chance of not getting medium Veli shoulders is, again and again, 17/18.

    That being said, you're extremely unlucky to have fallen into that hole 85 times in a row. Only about 1 of 100 gamblers gets the 17/18- outcome that often without at least one 1/18-outcome among them. Still, nothing speaks against an even distribution. Especially since those chests -- god, they are really dumb -- don't recognize who it is that opens them.
  • newtinmpls
    newtinmpls
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭
    Saint314Louis1985 wrote: »
    one time i dumped 6 keys in a row and got 6 warden shoulders. I was definitely.... mad you could say.

    If you get two in a row... just stop it! (hey it's not Gambler's Fallacy if RNGjeezus really hates you)

    Finally I got a chokethorn pauldrons to play with. It's sturdy or some such, but I finally got one!!!

    Happy dance!
    Tenesi Faryon of Telvanni - Dunmer Sorceress who deliberately sought sacrifice into Cold Harbor to rescue her beloved.
    Hisa Ni Caemaire - Altmer Sorceress, member of the Order Draconis and Adept of the House of Dibella.
    Broken Branch Toothmaul - goblin (for my goblin characters, I use either orsimer or bosmer templates) Templar, member of the Order Draconis and persistently unskilled pickpocket
    Mol gro Durga - Orsimer Socerer/Battlemage who died the first time when the Nibenay Valley chapterhouse of the Order Draconis was destroyed, then went back to Cold Harbor to rescue his second/partner who was still captive. He overestimated his resistance to the hopelessness of Oblivion, about to give up, and looked up to see the golden glow of atherius surrounding a beautiful young woman who extended her hand to him and said "I can help you". He carried Fianna Kingsley out of Cold Harbor on his shoulder. He carried Alvard Stower under one arm. He also irritated the Prophet who had intended the portal for only Mol and Lyris.
    ***
    Order Draconis - well c'mon there has to be some explanation for all those dragon tattoos.
    House of Dibella - If you have ever seen or read "Memoirs of a Geisha" that's just the beginning...
    Nibenay Valley Chapterhouse - Where now stands only desolate ground and a dolmen there once was a thriving community supporting one of the major chapterhouses of the Order Draconis
  • Runefang
    Runefang
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭
    tiamak wrote: »
    You got your guts shredded by the much feared Gambler's Fallacy. Those dumb chests don't remember what you've pulled out of them for the first 80 times. So, your chance of not getting medium Veli shoulders is, again and again, 17/18.

    That being said, you're extremely unlucky to have fallen into that hole 85 times in a row. Only about 1 of 100 gamblers gets the 17/18- outcome that often without at least one 1/18-outcome among them. Still, nothing speaks against an even distribution. Especially since those chests -- god, they are really dumb -- don't recognize who it is that opens them.

    The gambler's fallacy is also something of a fallacy on here.
  • Asardes
    Asardes
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭
    The RNG engine they use is probably simple not to take up so much server resources, so having consecutive drops with same or similar item/trait combos may mean it hasn't incremented properly. So there may be a gain of truth in the assumption you need to wait for "better" drops.
    Beta tester since February 2014, played ESO-TU October 2015 - August 2022, currently on an extended break
    vMA (The Flawless Conqueror) | vVH (Spirit Slayer & of the Undying Song) | vDSA | vAA HM | vHRC HM | vSO HM | vMoL | vAS+1 | Emperor

    PC-EU CP 3000+
    41,000+ Achievement Points before High Isle
    Member of:
    Pact Veteran Trade: Exemplary
    Traders of the Covenant: God of Sales
    Tamriels Emporium: God of Sales
    Valinor Overflow: Trader
    The Traveling Merchant: Silver

    Characters:
    Asardes | 50 Nord Dragonknight | EP AR 50 | Master Crafter: all traits & recipes, all styles released before High Isle
    Alxaril Nelcarion | 50 High Elf Sorcerer | AD AR 20 |
    Dro'Bear Three-paws | 50 Khajiit Nightblade | AD AR 20 |
    Veronique Nicole | 50 Breton Templar | DC AR 20 |
    Sabina Flavia Cosades | 50 Imperial Warden | EP AR 20 |
    Ervesa Neloren | 50 Dark Elf Dragonknight | EP AR 20 |
    Fendar Khodwin | 50 Redguard Sorcerer | DC AR 20 |
    Surilanwe of Lillandril | 50 High Elf Nightblade | AD AR 20 |
    Joleen the Swift | 50 Redguard Templar | DC AR 20 |
    Draynor Telvanni | 50 Dark Elf Warden | EP AR 20 |
    Claudius Tharn | 50 Necromancer | DC AR 20 |
    Nazura-la the Bonedancer | 50 Necromancer | AD AR 20 |
    Tharkul gro-Shug | 50 Orc Dragonknight | DC AR 4 |
    Ushruka gra-Lhurgash | 50 Orc Sorcerer | AD AR 4 |
    Cienwen ferch Llywelyn | 50 Breton Nightblade | DC AR 4 |
    Plays-with-Sunray | 50 Argonian Templar | EP AR 4 |
    Milariel | 50 Wood Elf Warden | AD AR 4 |
    Scheei-Jul | 50 Necromancer | EP AR 4 |

    PC-NA CP 1800+
    30,000+ Achievement Points before High Isle
    Member of:
    Savage Blade: Majestic Machette

    Characters:
    Asardes the Exile | 50 Nord Dragonknight | EP AR 30 |
  • newtinmpls
    newtinmpls
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭
    Asardes wrote: »
    The RNG engine they use is probably simple not to take up so much server resources, so having consecutive drops with same or similar item/trait combos may mean it hasn't incremented properly. So there may be a gain of truth in the assumption you need to wait for "better" drops.

    I have yet to see any RNG that is truly random. You can test this (in the olden days) by doing a "display random dot" program and watching the weird pattern cover your screen. Tiny dots, large screen - after a while you can see it's not really random.

    Only computer that didn't do this was my baby Timex PC that had 1k of memory (maybe it was less?) I recall you could "up it" to 16.
    Tenesi Faryon of Telvanni - Dunmer Sorceress who deliberately sought sacrifice into Cold Harbor to rescue her beloved.
    Hisa Ni Caemaire - Altmer Sorceress, member of the Order Draconis and Adept of the House of Dibella.
    Broken Branch Toothmaul - goblin (for my goblin characters, I use either orsimer or bosmer templates) Templar, member of the Order Draconis and persistently unskilled pickpocket
    Mol gro Durga - Orsimer Socerer/Battlemage who died the first time when the Nibenay Valley chapterhouse of the Order Draconis was destroyed, then went back to Cold Harbor to rescue his second/partner who was still captive. He overestimated his resistance to the hopelessness of Oblivion, about to give up, and looked up to see the golden glow of atherius surrounding a beautiful young woman who extended her hand to him and said "I can help you". He carried Fianna Kingsley out of Cold Harbor on his shoulder. He carried Alvard Stower under one arm. He also irritated the Prophet who had intended the portal for only Mol and Lyris.
    ***
    Order Draconis - well c'mon there has to be some explanation for all those dragon tattoos.
    House of Dibella - If you have ever seen or read "Memoirs of a Geisha" that's just the beginning...
    Nibenay Valley Chapterhouse - Where now stands only desolate ground and a dolmen there once was a thriving community supporting one of the major chapterhouses of the Order Draconis
  • Pele
    Pele
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    When you don't want it anymore or already have it, all your keys will be Medium Divines Velidreth.
  • Azurya
    Azurya
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭
    I say it is obvious the keys need a nerf!
  • sudaki_eso
    sudaki_eso
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    Your Velidreth is my Mephala....they just wont drop for me :'(
    PS4 EU - StamDK
  • Balamoor
    Balamoor
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭
    krachall wrote: »
    Maybe posting this will change my luck. Or maybe it will make me realize things are working as designed. After dropping about 20 keys into this chest with no luck, I started tracking each piece. Take a look at this table and guess the piece I'm looking for:

    Piece Light / Medium / Heavy
    Domi 4 /4 / 3
    Earth 3 / 4 / 5
    Warden 3 / 3 / 6
    Chudan 4 /5 / 4
    Kena 6 / 3 / 3
    Veli 4 / 0 / 2

    I've dropped about 85 keys in Urgalang's chest, trying to get Medium Velidreth's shoulders. With even distribution, I should have pulled about 4-5 by now. I started tracking each piece at about 65 keys and have found ZERO Veli medium? I don't even care about the trait but, come on, ZERO medium?

    There...I feel better.

    Actually this is where you can pretty much mindlessly hate on anything about the game valid or not.

    The hot topics recently are:
    I can't afford something in the game so everyone who has that thing needs to die

    And
    I play Skyrim and I'm angry that ESO isn't more Skyrim so I'm going to rant on the ESO forums 8 to 16 hours a day until I get more Skyrim.

    Have at it.
  • Dark_Lord_Kuro
    Dark_Lord_Kuro
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭
    krachall wrote: »
    Maybe posting this will change my luck. Or maybe it will make me realize things are working as designed. After dropping about 20 keys into this chest with no luck, I started tracking each piece. Take a look at this table and guess the piece I'm looking for:

    Piece Light / Medium / Heavy
    Domi 4 /4 / 3
    Earth 3 / 4 / 5
    Warden 3 / 3 / 6
    Chudan 4 /5 / 4
    Kena 6 / 3 / 3
    Veli 4 / 0 / 2

    I've dropped about 85 keys in Urgalang's chest, trying to get Medium Velidreth's shoulders. With even distribution, I should have pulled about 4-5 by now. I started tracking each piece at about 65 keys and have found ZERO Veli medium? I don't even care about the trait but, come on, ZERO medium?

    There...I feel better.

    1.Find who stole the skeleton key
    2. Kill him
    3. Take the key to a Nocturnal workship place
    4. Have your luck returned to you
Sign In or Register to comment.