Math of RNG, Problems & Suggestions
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I_killed_Vivec✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭NinthPrince64 wrote: »Maybe it would be useful to think of ZOS as a central banker rather than an individual caseworker? If you think about it, they are managing a (fairly complex) economy of resources/damage/commerce. I think they probably view things in the aggregate rather than at the level of the individual player.
Maybe one explanation for the (vMSA) RNG is that they have a view of what the overall distribution of, say, weapon power should be within the game's system. Maybe under the old system, the weapon ecology was getting overweighted in terms of high end weapons. Also, as people mastered vMSA and the RATE at which those weapons entering the system increased, maybe they fealt they had to adjust that rate by lowering the odds of getting a useful item per (increasingly faster) run?
The number of weapons is indeed controlled by the odds of getting one. But thats not the real problem. On average it takes 144 runs to get a sharpened flame staff, but for the individual players the probability of having one after 144 runs is approx 65%. So 35% of the players will need more than the 144 runs and even after 350 runs about 12% of the players won't have the desired staff. This problem arises from the fact that the weapons are not tradeable, therefore the inequalities in drop luck can't be negated by the market. If the BOP restriction stays, the only way of decreasing the inequality is by deacreasing the possible weapon drops/traits. Less possible outcomes means, that the individual players will approach the average after fewer runs.
There are two problems. The first is that each player only sees a small slice of RNG - as you say a significant number of people will have to wait a very long time before they get what they want.
The second problem is that in the meantime you get stuff that is worthless. And being allowed to trade them isn't the answer, because nobody wants them. What's worse is that ZoS use "wrong" traits as the illusion that you are getting something good.
I'd rather get nothing than the slap in the face of getting the weapon I want with a ridiculous trait.
Look at what they did with Briarheart when they added weapons - looks good at first glance but really all it does is dilute the loot tables. Who wants a Training Restro staff if they are running a stam/critical build? Meanwhile your chance of getting purple jewellery decreases because there are more items to choose from...
Get rid of the unwanted options and give a chance for getting either a valued drop or a token instead. That still gives RNG a chance to give you what you want first go, while putting a limit on the number of attempts needed if you are unlucky.
Maybe make the tokens tradeable so they are still meaningful when you've got everything you want yourself.0 -
Meld777✭✭✭✭✭Just gotta add that if you want a specific 2h (Sharpened Maul, for example), you're also facing 1/144 odds.Maelstrom Arena Champion | Undaunted | Fighters Guild Victor
Level 50 Magicka NB | CP160+
nAA | vCoH1 HM | nSO | nCoA2 | nDSA | nMA | vVoM
PC EU0 -
ZOS doesnt give a...... they know the probability of getting those items very well. I have a friend that did 500+ vma runs and he never got inferno sharp staff. He has 200 days of gameplay on his main /played. So basicaly the ESO addict nolifer cant get the desired item.....this is how bad things are.Edited by vincentlaw on December 1, 2016 1:53PM0
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GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭Just gotta add that if you want a specific 2h (Sharpened Maul, for example), you're also facing 1/144 odds.
Updated the OP to make that also clear in the MSA graph and description. Thanks for the input!0 -
Thal✭✭✭Just to further the discussion - I'd previously heard that "smarter drops" were coming/have arrived.
In the past 24 hours, I've received 2 sharpened Sunderflame Restorations Staves, 1 sharpened Sunderflame Ice Staff, and 1 sharpened Burning Spellweave Bow... the reason any of these are even in the loot pool escapes me.0 -
Meld777✭✭✭✭✭That's RNG for you. When my gf and I decided to test Ilambris, we both still needed the shoulders. I had 300+ keys banked, took them all and went to the chest. First try: Ilambris Medium Divines.
She had only 50 keys and was worried she wouldn't get it. First try: Ilambris Medium Divines.
Both within 3 min or so. But hey, I ran vMA over 440 times by now and not a single usable Inferno Staff. She ran it ~100 times and doesn't have ANY Inferno. Not even in a bad trait. And I only have 2, which I both got on the event (Decisive and Defending).Maelstrom Arena Champion | Undaunted | Fighters Guild Victor
Level 50 Magicka NB | CP160+
nAA | vCoH1 HM | nSO | nCoA2 | nDSA | nMA | vVoM
PC EU0 -
Elsonso✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Hello,
Solutions:
1. Remove unused traits:
2. Remove bind on pickup restriction:
3. A token system:
4. Improving the Cyrodiil vendor:
There should be no such thing as an "unused trait". I agree about the BoP, but they want people to play content to get stuff. Token system is far too liberal and I don't think that ZOS will like the results.
Better answer... a smarter random drop system.
RNG History
Eliminate frequency of random repeats by decreasing the odds for stuff you have received, and increasing the odds for stuff you have not received, over a certain time frame doing a certain activity.
More Useful Gear
Rather than randomly assembly, the gear should have higher probabilities along the current character build than against it. In this manner, a 2H build will see more 2H and less destruction staff. A person wearing all Training gear, or all Prosperous gear, will see more of that trait, and less of the other traits. Someone who is more skilled in Light will see more Light than Medium or Heavy. Everything still comes up, but not at the same probabilities.
XBox EU/NA:@ElsonsoJannus
PC NA/EU: @Elsonso
PSN NA/EU: @ElsonsoJannus
Total in-game hours: 11321
X/Twitter: ElsonsoJannus0 -
GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭
Best way to bump is adding content to the thread, so I added your data to the section about the MSA drops to back up the assumption for 6 weapon drop categories.kasa-obake wrote: »Bumping the thread up. Keep up the good work, comrade !
So assuming you wanted only a divines Ilambris without a specific weight you had a 1/96=1,04% chance to get it. After 666 runs you have a 99,0% chance to have the desired sharpened MSA inferno staff. Since RNG is the pure evil, you both will get your staffs after 666 runs in order to compensate for your undaunted shoulder luck. Have fun!That's RNG for you. When my gf and I decided to test Ilambris, we both still needed the shoulders. I had 300+ keys banked, took them all and went to the chest. First try: Ilambris Medium Divines.
She had only 50 keys and was worried she wouldn't get it. First try: Ilambris Medium Divines.
Both within 3 min or so. But hey, I ran vMA over 440 times by now and not a single usable Inferno Staff. She ran it ~100 times and doesn't have ANY Inferno. Not even in a bad trait. And I only have 2, which I both got on the event (Decisive and Defending).
Thanks for the support!Mettaricana wrote: »I support this post harder than mannimarco supports his ego
I agree that there should not be such a thing as unused traits and that that's the main problem, but I think it's easier to fix the RNG problem, than balancing all the traits. RNG history is an interesting model but it has to be made transparent.lordrichter wrote: »
There should be no such thing as an "unused trait". I agree about the BoP, but they want people to play content to get stuff. Token system is far too liberal and I don't think that ZOS will like the results.Hello,
Solutions:
1. Remove unused traits:
2. Remove bind on pickup restriction:
3. A token system:
4. Improving the Cyrodiil vendor:
Better answer... a smarter random drop system.
RNG History
Eliminate frequency of random repeats by decreasing the odds for stuff you have received, and increasing the odds for stuff you have not received, over a certain time frame doing a certain activity.
More Useful Gear
Rather than randomly assembly, the gear should have higher probabilities along the current character build than against it. In this manner, a 2H build will see more 2H and less destruction staff. A person wearing all Training gear, or all Prosperous gear, will see more of that trait, and less of the other traits. Someone who is more skilled in Light will see more Light than Medium or Heavy. Everything still comes up, but not at the same probabilities.
A smarter drop system would definately be the best solution for the weapon drops, but one has to be careful to keep useful stuff like swords for magicka sets, etc.
The useful gear approach has some problems, if you want to use a different char to farm the stuff you. Take the example of farming burning spellweave: If 4 people want to farm it and assuming a standard group setup at leas the tank won't wear a full dmg setup and have a higher probability to drop the dungeon's heavy armor set. If they implement a system like this there has to be a toggle function. Better would be a prefered drop option, where you can choose if you prefer light, medium or heavy drops and according weapons. Since most of the dungeons have set each you can basically choose the set you want.
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GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭Short update: I finally got my divines Grothdarr shoulder after approx 330 keys. In comparison to that I have Ilambris 5 times in divines and all weights. I would love to be able to trade them since I have only one Sorc...
Let's see if I have more luck with medium divines Kra'gh shoulders!
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Thal✭✭✭Short update from me - I now have 2 precise Burning Spellweave Swords. It's only taken a few hundred more runs to do that. I have had 2 sharpened BSW bows thus far though. Very useful0
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Hamiltonmath✭✭✭Maybe to kill 3 birds with one stone - remove stamina weapons from magic sets and magic weapons from stamina sets and count two handed weapons as 2 set pieces and double the amount of tempers to improve them and increase the gold upgrade material to 7.5% instead of 5%.Edited by Hamiltonmath on December 5, 2016 11:40PM0
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Eleusian✭✭✭Bad thing RNG mite be fun if it wasn't so diluted with traits they created for dilution of loot pools. ZOS must be making tons with the current formula due to no budge attitude.
When things get bad, businesses only then change. Like taking 2 years for 1T after 99% of gaming community slammed the game at launch for all the things 1T generally addressed.PS4 NA0 -
ChunkyCat✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭I'm going to start making a log of each weapon I get from VMA, until I get that damn sharpened inferno staff.0 -
D0ntevenL1ft✭✭✭✭✭Yoohoo4411 wrote: »I'm going to start making a log of each weapon I get from VMA, until I get that damn sharpened inferno staff.
Got mine yesterday sharpened in my 15th run; already got sharpened lightning staff, great sword, and precise flame as well. Id trade em all for a sharpened maul though.0 -
ChunkyCat✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭D0ntevenL1ft wrote: »Yoohoo4411 wrote: »I'm going to start making a log of each weapon I get from VMA, until I get that damn sharpened inferno staff.
Got mine yesterday sharpened in my 15th run; already got sharpened lightning staff, great sword, and precise flame as well. Id trade em all for a sharpened maul though.
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Dorrino✭✭✭✭✭@GilGalad
I think no productive discussion about any of the game's systems can happen if people focus on 'problems' of the system without outlining why the system is in the state it is.
The loot drop system was deliberately designed to provide the outcomes you discuss. Having rather low chance of getting a bis gear piece is the purpose of the system, not an oversight.
So if you propose to change the system you first need to clearly understand and state its purpose and then provide a compelling reasoning why either the system fails to do what it was designed to do or that an alternative design would be 'better' for the game as the whole and not in some particular cases.
Can the current loot system cause frustration in some people striving to get a specific gear piece? Yes, for sure. It's intended to. The system was designed to allow for a fast access to almost any gear piece. Meanwhile getting a gear piece with a specific trait/type might take any time from one hour to infinity.
If you make obtaining those specific items predictable - in a quite short time (on the game's lifetime scale, say half a year) many people well get all bis gear. Which is awful for an mmo without constant gear level upgrades and thus a vertical progress system. This change alone will significantly degrade the quality of pve experience in the game potentially to the point of no return (depending on how badly you 'nerf' the rng).
Thus as long as we're going to have the lack of vertical progess as one of the staples of eso, there will be a hard limit on how available you can make obtaining bis gear in the game.
Now the question is how can we justify that, say, 4 month average per a bis gear piece is too long and, say, 2 month is just fine?:) And that those 2 months would still allow to have a healthy growing mmo without vertical progess.
Curious:)Edited by Dorrino on May 18, 2017 7:15AM1 -
NewBlacksmurf✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭I think no productive discussion about any of the game's systems can happen if people focus on 'problems' of the system without outlining why the system is in the state it is.
The loot drop system was deliberately designed to provide the outcomes you discuss. Having rather low chance of getting a bis gear piece is the purpose of the system, not an oversight.
So if you propose to change the system you first need to clearly understand and state its purpose and then provide a compelling reasoning why either the system fails to do what it was designed to do or that an alternative design would be 'better' for the game as the whole and not in some particular cases.
Can the current loot system cause frustration in some people striving to get a specific gear piece? Yes, for sure. It's intended to. The system was designed to allow for a fast access to almost any gear piece. Meanwhile getting a gear piece with a specific trait/type might take any time from one hour to infinity.
If you make obtaining those specific items predictable - in a quite short time (on the game's lifetime scale, say half a year) many people well get all bis gear. Which is awful for an mmo without constant gear level upgrades and thus a vertical progress system. This change alone will significantly degrade the quality of pve experience in the game potentially to the point of no return (depending on how badly you 'nerf' the rng).
Thus as long as we're going to have the lack of vertical progess as one of the staples of eso, there will be a hard limit on how available you can make obtaining bis gear in the game.
Now the question is how can we justify that, say, 4 month average per a bis gear piece is too long and, say, 2 month is just fine?:) And that those 2 months would still allow to have a healthy growing mmo without vertical progess.
Curious:)
I don't think we can cause we don't fully understand it's purpose or design
-PC (PTS)/Xbox One: NewBlacksmurf
~<{[50]}>~ looks better than *5010 -
Sukenlihol✭✭✭RNG is THIS:
Even you are in lightest gray, you are still in gray, not White!
Even you are in darkest gray, you are still in gray, not Black!
No matter how much shades of gray, it's "gray", kingdom of RNG! You are slave of your luck until you arrive White or Black zone. Math cannot save your day.
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Dorrino✭✭✭✭✭NewBlacksmurf wrote: »I don't think we can cause we don't fully understand it's purpose or design
Since rng in loot tables with rather long average time to obtain the best items has been a gameplay-defining feature of almost any mmo on the market since the beginning we can safely assume its purpose in ESO is of the same kind as it is everywhere else.
To summarize, this purpose is to increase players retention rate by complicating their process of obtaining the ultimate power in the game (bis gear in the case of ESO). And since gaining more power is one of the key motivations for people in mmos and elsewhere - this feature can be considered a baseline.
Btw, ESO out of most of mmos manages this feature very generously. Since obtaining 'a peice' of the desired set is really easy. And the dps/healing difference between that piece and bis piece of the same set is ~0.5%. So full bis (obtainable in months if not years) vs full training-level gear (obtainable in days/weeks) is 5% at best (TBS setups). You don't need bis gear literally for any content in the game.
Edited by Dorrino on May 18, 2017 7:40AM0 -
GilGalad✭✭✭✭✭NewBlacksmurf wrote: »I don't think we can cause we don't fully understand it's purpose or design
Since rng in loot tables with rather long average time to obtain the best items has been a gameplay-defining feature of almost any mmo on the market since the beginning we can safely assume its purpose in ESO is of the same kind as it is everywhere else.
To summarize, this purpose is to increase players retention rate by complicating their process of obtaining the ultimate power in the game (bis gear in the case of ESO). And since gaining more power is one of the key motivations for people in mmos and elsewhere - this feature can be considered a baseline.
Btw, ESO out of most of mmos manages this feature very generously. Since obtaining 'a peice' of the desired set is really easy. And the dps/healing difference between that piece and bis piece of the same set is ~0.5%. So full bis (obtainable in months if not years) vs full training-level gear (obtainable in days/weeks) is 5% at best (TBS setups). You don't need bis gear literally for any content in the game.
I am fully aware of the fact that the system is working as intended, and that the difference between BIS gear and easy to get alternatives is relatively low of you don't run a build that is made for a specific weapon like a lightning heavy attack build.
There is only one place where the few % more DPS matter and that's endgame trial leaderboards. I know people in my guild who ran vMA incredibly often and never got a sharpened Inferno staff, therefore losing a few k DPS that can decide between rank 1 and rank 2 on th leaderboard.
I theorycraft a lot for my guildmates, but most of the time it's not about figuring out what is the BIS gear, but what is the best gear setup they have access to.
The problem I see with this system is not the long average time, but the possibility of doing close to infinite runs without a guaranteed drop. On top of that the system does not reward skill at all, so that the endgame raiders for example could get their vMA weapons faster to actually focus on the trial leaderboards. Forcing people to spend a lot of time and having luck doing content they don't enjoy in order to be competitive in trials is just wrong.
But I guess even that is calculated by ZOS, because an endgame raid player won't quit the game even after 600 COA runs without a sharpened Inferno.
What I find odd about using RNG as an incentive to keep players doing content is that they don't earn money from it, unless the set drops in a DLC area. ESO+ does not help you when farming gear at all and is using incentives on a convenience level to be attractive.
If they want people to play the game they should introduce useful sets, but instead we are all running BSW since one tamriel and still only a few own a useful staff.
And btw here is a comment from one guildmate about the new trial sets: Im so glad that they aren't that good, so we don't have to farm them all day.1 -
Dorrino✭✭✭✭✭There is only one place where the few % more DPS matter and that's endgame trial leaderboards. I know people in my guild who ran vMA incredibly often and never got a sharpened Inferno staff, therefore losing a few k DPS that can decide between rank 1 and rank 2 on th leaderboard.
Can we agree that 'can decide between rank 1 and rank 2 on th leaderboard' is both not really probable (since we're talking about 1-3k dps of one guy in the trial group) and is a largely irrelevant issue on the scope of the whole game?:)The problem I see with this system is not the long average time, but the possibility of doing close to infinite runs without a guaranteed drop.
Exactly. Now the question should be: what value does this possibility add to the game? If we find that potentially infinite item acquisition time bears zero purpose within the game we'd indeed have to change the system to put a cap on that tail of the Gaussian.
Let's examine drawbacks and benefits of the system separately.
Drawbacks:
1. The major drawback is players' frustration of putting time into an activity and never reaching the goal.
2. Potential disparity between different people based purely on luck (and not on, say, player game skill or player social skills).
Advantages:
1. Unpredictability. Just like it can be a drawback and a source of frustration it can be a blessing and a source of happiness. If you're certain you will get that piece of gear no matter what the whole activity becomes noticeably more boring. Since now the only thing that stands between you and that piece of gear is time. People might (and do) feel as if this time bears no value and thus has to be reduced, preferably to zero.
The whole system becomes more of a in-your-face waste of time instead of 'maybe this time i get lucky and the universe will smile on me'.
I'd argue that the former system has much higher emotional involvement into it and emotions is the major reason we all play the game. We can tolerate stuff being frustrating. What we can't accept is the stuff to be totally boring.
2. The same disparity between players when its degree is quite low adds to the variety between players builds and playstyles and thus to a better game overall. Yes, this is a forced variety, but on the min-max level pure natural variety is arguably unattainable. Even if the net dps difference between 2 setups is 0.5-1% min-max level will discard the 'weaker' one in favor of the 'stronger' one.
Thus the only reasonable way to introduce variety at this level - is to make artificial gates in gear acquisition. Unpredictable gates. Gates that work.
A properly balanced loot system will try to emphasize the advantages outlined above, while diminishing the drawbacks. And i'd argue that ESO dev team does a rather good job at that.On top of that the system does not reward skill at all, so that the endgame raiders for example could get their vMA weapons faster to actually focus on the trial leaderboards.
I can't agree with this part. Indeed people farming vmsa don't have a challenge of whether they can complete it or not. But instead that might have different types of challenge. The most obvious one is perfect speedruns (and thus a position on vmsa leaderboards). This activity definitely requires a great deal of skill of the player and, it so happens, it perfectly coincides with their farming goals, since a better run is a faster run, thus more effective farming.
In case of farming vet dungeons even though we don't have the leaderboards for them, faster runs is still a challenging activity in itself. This is not mind-numbing exp farming after all:)Forcing people to spend a lot of time and having luck doing content they don't enjoy in order to be competitive in trials is just wrong.
But as we both outlined above none of bis gear makes people 'competitive in trials' besides anecdotal cases (like your example of the difference between 1 and 2 position on trials leaderboards).But I guess even that is calculated by ZOS, because an endgame raid player won't quit the game even after 600 COA runs without a sharpened Inferno.
Yep. Because they also understand they don't really need it:) It's a perfect example of a carrot-on-the-stick of the right size. Make it larger and people will quit the game because 'i can't progress due to stupid rng'. Make it smaller and people will quit the game because 'i achieved max power already'.What I find odd about using RNG as an incentive to keep players doing content is that they don't earn money from it, unless the set drops in a DLC area. ESO+ does not help you when farming gear at all and is using incentives on a convenience level to be attractive.
They don't earn money directly from farming gear activities for 2 major reasons:
1. Any cash-shop additions to help that activity will be unambiguously taken as p2w with obvious implications of it.
2. By increasing players retention rate in this way, they indirectly earn money from other sources since active players are exactly those who buy the stuff from crown store:)If they want people to play the game they should introduce useful sets, but instead we are all running BSW since one tamriel and still only a few own a useful staff.
It's really hard to provide an alternative to the min-max meta. Most of the time any alternative will be sub-meta and thus ignored.
That's on the very top level. Anywhere below that the gear variety flourish happily:)And btw here is a comment from one guildmate about the new trial sets: Im so glad that they aren't that good, so we don't have to farm them all day.
Just like it is expected from a non-vertical progress system. The new sets provide alternatives, not necessity.Edited by Dorrino on May 19, 2017 6:59AM0