A plea to zenimax - 300+ runs of vMA

Cozzy1991 · December 2016

And not a single sharpened weapon of any kind. I have an excel table with dates, times, loot drops and score for 300 runs that I've recorded over the past year. You can not seriously tell me this is acceptable. (not, I tried to cut and paste the contents of the table here, but it contained too much text apparently). Can you offer me any sort of feedback for this apart from "working as intended"? Because if I as a player, dedicated an ABSURD amount of time to this without ANY usable reward, I honestly cant justify spending my free time here. Note that the 300 are just the RECORDED runs, there has been a few more....

Jaronking · December 2016

I have 300+ runs as well not one sharpened 2h or DW weapon.It Sucks but ZOs don't care they want you to run the content and not get the weapon you want so you will quit.Isn't that right @ZOS_RichLambert ?

Hamiltonmath · December 2016

Cozzy1991 wrote: »

And not a single sharpened weapon of any kind. I have an excel table with dates, times, loot drops and score for 300 runs that I've recorded over the past year. You can not seriously tell me this is acceptable. (not, I tried to cut and paste the contents of the table here, but it contained too much text apparently). Can you offer me any sort of feedback for this apart from "working as intended"? Because if I as a player, dedicated an ABSURD amount of time to this without ANY usable reward, I honestly cant justify spending my free time here. Note that the 300 are just the RECORDED runs, there has been a few more....

It's almost statistically impossible for that to happen. And you have NO usable reward? No precise daggers/axes/bows? No powered resto?

Cozzy1991 · December 2016

Hamiltonmath wrote: »

Cozzy1991 wrote: »

And not a single sharpened weapon of any kind. I have an excel table with dates, times, loot drops and score for 300 runs that I've recorded over the past year. You can not seriously tell me this is acceptable. (not, I tried to cut and paste the contents of the table here, but it contained too much text apparently). Can you offer me any sort of feedback for this apart from "working as intended"? Because if I as a player, dedicated an ABSURD amount of time to this without ANY usable reward, I honestly cant justify spending my free time here. Note that the 300 are just the RECORDED runs, there has been a few more....

It's almost statistically impossible for that to happen. And you have NO usable reward? No precise daggers/axes/bows? No powered resto?

Nope. No precise weapons, no sharpened weapons, no defending weapons, no powered resto. Statistically, I've been screwed.

Isellskooma · December 2016

Same here since 1T came out 2 runs per day and still haven't gotten a defending maul. I have a sharpend maul but that's not what I want. Endless grind for a weapon...

bottleofsyrup · December 2016

You may be able to open the Excel file in Google Spreadsheets and provide us a link to that. @kasa-obake would definitely be interested.

VampiricByNature · December 2016

It's actually not statistically impossible @Hamiltonmath. If each pull from the final chest is within its own mutually exclusive pull- say 1% chance of a sharpened inferno- it is quite possible to never draw one.
If the game registered bad pulls and increased your odds or depleted the draw pool that would be a different story. But as far as I know, each time you open the chest is a whole new crap shoot. That means there theoretically could be some poor sap out there with only sword and boards. Lol

I have never received a single sharpened weapon. Thank God I don't main a dps or I would have inferno rage waiting for an inferno staff to drop. [Or a bow. I would love a better trait for my stamblade]

Reorx_Holybeard · December 2016

Cozzy1991 wrote: »

Hamiltonmath wrote: »

Cozzy1991 wrote: »

And not a single sharpened weapon of any kind. I have an excel table with dates, times, loot drops and score for 300 runs that I've recorded over the past year. You can not seriously tell me this is acceptable. (not, I tried to cut and paste the contents of the table here, but it contained too much text apparently). Can you offer me any sort of feedback for this apart from "working as intended"? Because if I as a player, dedicated an ABSURD amount of time to this without ANY usable reward, I honestly cant justify spending my free time here. Note that the 300 are just the RECORDED runs, there has been a few more....

It's almost statistically impossible for that to happen. And you have NO usable reward? No precise daggers/axes/bows? No powered resto?

Nope. No precise weapons, no sharpened weapons, no defending weapons, no powered resto. Statistically, I've been screwed.

Either your RNG is broken or you aren't being completely honest in the loot distribution. The chance to have 0 precise, sharpened, or defending weapons in 300 runs is:

Traits = 3 out of 9 = 33%
Chance = (1 - 0.33) ^ 300 = 6.6e-53

Now in a large MMO like ESO you'd expect to see rare events happen from time to time just due to the number of people playing. Perhaps 1 in a million (1e-6) or maybe even 1 in a billion (1e-9) but something with a chance of 6e-53 means something is terrible wrong somewhere,

If you truly did complete 300 vMA with no precise/sharpened/defending rewards I would start a petition request to have it looked at.

DRXHarbinger · December 2016

Hamiltonmath wrote: »

Cozzy1991 wrote: »

And not a single sharpened weapon of any kind. I have an excel table with dates, times, loot drops and score for 300 runs that I've recorded over the past year. You can not seriously tell me this is acceptable. (not, I tried to cut and paste the contents of the table here, but it contained too much text apparently). Can you offer me any sort of feedback for this apart from "working as intended"? Because if I as a player, dedicated an ABSURD amount of time to this without ANY usable reward, I honestly cant justify spending my free time here. Note that the 300 are just the RECORDED runs, there has been a few more....

It's almost statistically impossible for that to happen. And you have NO usable reward? No precise daggers/axes/bows? No powered resto?

Probably. I've done about 30 runs before and landed only charged, powered and infused trash. Not kidding either. I wouldn't doubt it.

Still to this day only 1 sharp inferno and 1 lit staff. 4 sharp axes, 3 sharp daggers....and I've done way way more than 300 runs. I've done about 20 this week so far alone. The issue is bows and restos take up too much of the loot table as proven.

Meld777 · December 2016

Not a single Sharpened Weapon in 300+ runs? That's (7/8)^300 = 4*10^(-18), or 0.0000000000000004%. Sorry, not buying it, unless your account is bugged. Even as someone who hasn't gotten his Sharpened Inferno in 450 runs (chance for that to happen is 5%).

And then you claim you haven't gotten anything useful, either? Not a precise fire staff, not a precise bow, or a powered resto? That's a SIGNIFICANTLY lower chance than the one above. Not even gonna bother calculating it because 0.0000000000000004% is ridiculous enough. And since you're saying it's recorded over a year, I'm assuming you also ran it before DB? If yes, then the chance back then for a Sharpened weapon (especially from leaderbiards, 33%) was even higher than it is now. But I'm not including that in the calculation, 0.0000000000000004% is only the chance considering the current, very bad drop rates.

On a side note, Streak got his first Sharpened Inferno after around 1500 vMA runs. And the chance for that to happen is 0.003%, so 3 in 100000, ~1 in 33000 players, which is very realistic to see considering ESO's player base (1M+ games sold). Yours is more like... 1 in... a Billion times the Earth's population. So a Billion Earths with everyone on them running vMA in ESO, and 4 of them will not get any Sharpened weapon in 300 runs with the current drop rate.

I understand your frustration, better than anyone, but I had to call out this bull..... because it's bad enough ZOS isn't listening to real statistics. Posts like these will make them look at everyone of us like we're crazy.

mr_wazzabi · December 2016

Isellskooma wrote: »

Same here since 1T came out 2 runs per day and still haven't gotten a defending maul. I have a sharpend maul but that's not what I want. Endless grind for a weapon...

Why do you want a defending maul?

Mitoice · December 2016

Woww you all must really love vMA...
To me... 5 runs.. no good weapons.. stopped running it. Currently vMA relies too much on random spawns and its too boring for me, so im never running it again... 300 plus runs?!?!?! wow.. just wow.. could never see myself doing 300 runs unless they add group to this or someone pays me a lot to do it... lol

Armitas · December 2016

Every time someone thinks of doing a VMA remember this. Unless you want a bow or resto it is extraordinarily unlikely that you will get the weapon you want. That is true for the 1st run, the 300th run and the 1000th run. Each time you open that chest it will be unlikely.

I have stopped going. Whenever I get the itch that this run will be the one I tell myself that. The dungeon doesn't owe us even after a thousand runs, and it's impossible to work for it. We are at the mercy of a dice roll that is intentionally weighted* against us and almost certain to win against us every time.

People should stop running it until they fix it, then maybe they will get the picture.

*

kasa-obake wrote: »

Okay so, I've taken all the loot I got from vMSA, the loot of the people who posted there (only took those who mentioned trait + item for every run and ignored quotes + double posts) bringing the total to 510 drops. It's not much but still more than the people who QQ for 10 runs (and I should know, I started crying after 1 run since the event started).

At any rate, here are the results:

And here's some pie charts to help you visualize better:

As you can see, Sharpened is actually the trait that dropped the most out of 510 items. But they all seem pretty equivalent. No reason to cry so far about rigged rng, right ?

However let's take a look at the items themselves:

Alanar wrote: »

I've tracked 48 VMA drops, and I can confirm that the 12 weapons do not drop evenly (p < 0.02).

And among these unevenly distributed loots, we have this:

Kutsuu · December 2016

Would be kinda cool if you could at least break down undesirable weapons into a very small amount of "currency" which can eventually be used to buy a different weapon. Similar to gems with crown crates. Maybe you'd have to do 150 runs to guarantee the weapon you want, but you could easily "win" it before then and there's always a light at the end of the tunnel.

Wrecking_Blow_Spam · December 2016

Isellskooma wrote: »

Same here since 1T came out 2 runs per day and still haven't gotten a defending maul. I have a sharpend maul but that's not what I want. Endless grind for a weapon...

@Isellskooma I have 2 defending mauls and no sharpened 2Hs if only we could trade...

lardvader · December 2016

mr_wazzabi wrote: »

Isellskooma wrote: »

Same here since 1T came out 2 runs per day and still haven't gotten a defending maul. I have a sharpend maul but that's not what I want. Endless grind for a weapon...

Why do you want a defending maul?

Probably PvP backbar defense? Not unusual for certain DK's on the field

deepseamk20b14_ESO · December 2016

Things should be a challenge to get but not so difficult to where the game doesn't become a boring grind. I've been going for a sharpened weapon for awhile now and the more time I grind the more time it's taking me away from the parts of the game I want to do. The more time I spend away from parts of the game I want to do the less I want to play. It only benefits ZoS to start increasing drop rates because it's what makes people stay with the game.

EldritchPenguin · December 2016

Just hearing about the nightmarish RNG of vMA makes me never want to touch it. I'll probably just end up getting my dual Destros in Infallible Aether/Moondancer instead. I play mostly Magicka DD's, and I am not doing the 1,000+ runs that would likely be required to get Sharpened Inferno staves for all of them.

Prof_Bawbag · December 2016

Reorx_Holybeard wrote: »
Cozzy1991 wrote: »

Hamiltonmath wrote: »

Cozzy1991 wrote: »

And not a single sharpened weapon of any kind. I have an excel table with dates, times, loot drops and score for 300 runs that I've recorded over the past year. You can not seriously tell me this is acceptable. (not, I tried to cut and paste the contents of the table here, but it contained too much text apparently). Can you offer me any sort of feedback for this apart from "working as intended"? Because if I as a player, dedicated an ABSURD amount of time to this without ANY usable reward, I honestly cant justify spending my free time here. Note that the 300 are just the RECORDED runs, there has been a few more....

It's almost statistically impossible for that to happen. And you have NO usable reward? No precise daggers/axes/bows? No powered resto?

Nope. No precise weapons, no sharpened weapons, no defending weapons, no powered resto. Statistically, I've been screwed.

Either your RNG is broken or you aren't being completely honest in the loot distribution. The chance to have 0 precise, sharpened, or defending weapons in 300 runs is:
Traits = 3 out of 9 = 33%
Chance = (1 - 0.33) ^ 300 = 6.6e-53
Now in a large MMO like ESO you'd expect to see rare events happen from time to time just due to the number of people playing. Perhaps 1 in a million (1e-6) or maybe even 1 in a billion (1e-9) but something with a chance of 6e-53 means something is terrible wrong somewhere,

If you truly did complete 300 vMA with no precise/sharpened/defending rewards I would start a petition request to have it looked at.

I have no idea why others are so determined to disprove the claims of others when it's all based around the God awful RNG. It's similar to the time I claimed i have gutted over 700 fish and have still to receive my first perfect roe. Someone shot my claim down like i had something to gain by claiming I get no roe. Only ZoS can back up any claim made on here and by the same token only they can disprove any claim made on here. Seriously, some of us get a good shafting with certain things whilst others get a lot more than the statistics say they should. My perfect roe haul is non existent, whereas the gold mats I have received via the craft table probably puts most peoples to shame.

Kutsuu · December 2016

The cool thing to take from that table is that it's relatively easy to get a shar

lardvader wrote: »

mr_wazzabi wrote: »

Isellskooma wrote: »

Same here since 1T came out 2 runs per day and still haven't gotten a defending maul. I have a sharpend maul but that's not what I want. Endless grind for a weapon...

Why do you want a defending maul?

Probably PvP backbar defense? Not unusual for certain DK's on the field

Yeah PVP buffstick - many 1h/shield+2h builds go like this, and for classes with a class-based gap closer DW+2h. My preferred buffstick goes Defending > Powered > Precise... I ended up with a Powered 2h sword so that's what I use for my DW+2h buffstick.

Hamiltonmath · December 2016

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »
Reorx_Holybeard wrote: »
Cozzy1991 wrote: »

Hamiltonmath wrote: »

Cozzy1991 wrote: »

And not a single sharpened weapon of any kind. I have an excel table with dates, times, loot drops and score for 300 runs that I've recorded over the past year. You can not seriously tell me this is acceptable. (not, I tried to cut and paste the contents of the table here, but it contained too much text apparently). Can you offer me any sort of feedback for this apart from "working as intended"? Because if I as a player, dedicated an ABSURD amount of time to this without ANY usable reward, I honestly cant justify spending my free time here. Note that the 300 are just the RECORDED runs, there has been a few more....

It's almost statistically impossible for that to happen. And you have NO usable reward? No precise daggers/axes/bows? No powered resto?

Nope. No precise weapons, no sharpened weapons, no defending weapons, no powered resto. Statistically, I've been screwed.

Either your RNG is broken or you aren't being completely honest in the loot distribution. The chance to have 0 precise, sharpened, or defending weapons in 300 runs is:
Traits = 3 out of 9 = 33%
Chance = (1 - 0.33) ^ 300 = 6.6e-53
Now in a large MMO like ESO you'd expect to see rare events happen from time to time just due to the number of people playing. Perhaps 1 in a million (1e-6) or maybe even 1 in a billion (1e-9) but something with a chance of 6e-53 means something is terrible wrong somewhere,

If you truly did complete 300 vMA with no precise/sharpened/defending rewards I would start a petition request to have it looked at.
I have no idea why others are so determined to disprove the claims of others when it's all based around the God awful RNG. It's similar to the time I claimed i have gutted over 700 fish and have still to receive my first perfect roe. Someone shot my claim down like i had something to gain by claiming I get no roe. Only ZoS can back up any claim made on here and by the same token only they can disprove any claim made on here. Seriously, some of us get a good shafting with certain things whilst others get a lot more than the statistics say they should. My perfect roe haul is non existent, whereas the gold mats I have received via the craft table probably puts most peoples to shame.

Because Math .

Reorx_Holybeard · December 2016

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »
Reorx_Holybeard wrote: »
Cozzy1991 wrote: »

Hamiltonmath wrote: »

Cozzy1991 wrote: »

And not a single sharpened weapon of any kind. I have an excel table with dates, times, loot drops and score for 300 runs that I've recorded over the past year. You can not seriously tell me this is acceptable. (not, I tried to cut and paste the contents of the table here, but it contained too much text apparently). Can you offer me any sort of feedback for this apart from "working as intended"? Because if I as a player, dedicated an ABSURD amount of time to this without ANY usable reward, I honestly cant justify spending my free time here. Note that the 300 are just the RECORDED runs, there has been a few more....

It's almost statistically impossible for that to happen. And you have NO usable reward? No precise daggers/axes/bows? No powered resto?

Nope. No precise weapons, no sharpened weapons, no defending weapons, no powered resto. Statistically, I've been screwed.

Either your RNG is broken or you aren't being completely honest in the loot distribution. The chance to have 0 precise, sharpened, or defending weapons in 300 runs is:
Traits = 3 out of 9 = 33%
Chance = (1 - 0.33) ^ 300 = 6.6e-53
Now in a large MMO like ESO you'd expect to see rare events happen from time to time just due to the number of people playing. Perhaps 1 in a million (1e-6) or maybe even 1 in a billion (1e-9) but something with a chance of 6e-53 means something is terrible wrong somewhere,

If you truly did complete 300 vMA with no precise/sharpened/defending rewards I would start a petition request to have it looked at.
I have no idea why others are so determined to disprove the claims of others when it's all based around the God awful RNG. It's similar to the time I claimed i have gutted over 700 fish and have still to receive my first perfect roe. Someone shot my claim down like i had something to gain by claiming I get no roe. Only ZoS can back up any claim made on here and by the same token only they can disprove any claim made on here. Seriously, some of us get a good shafting with certain things whilst others get a lot more than the statistics say they should. My perfect roe haul is non existent, whereas the gold mats I have received via the craft table probably puts most peoples to shame.

I'm not sure why people wouldn't believe you not getting a roe in 700 fish. That has a 0.1% chance of happening (0.99 ^ 700) which is small but very believable for a game with millions of players. A 6e-51% chance is no where near believable.

Isellskooma · December 2016

Cause of proc sets.

mr_wazzabi wrote: »

Isellskooma wrote: »

Same here since 1T came out 2 runs per day and still haven't gotten a defending maul. I have a sharpend maul but that's not what I want. Endless grind for a weapon...

Why do you want a defending maul?

Baconfat79 · December 2016

Cozzy1991 wrote: »

I have an excel table with dates, times, loot drops and score for 300 runs that I've recorded over the past year. You can not seriously tell me this is acceptable. (not, I tried to cut and paste the contents of the table here, but it contained too much text apparently).

You have data to back up this ridiculous claim, but you can't post it? I think I remember you from middle school. You had a girlfriend, but she went to a different school in another state, right?

iAmLife · December 2016

Cozzy1991 wrote: »

And not a single sharpened weapon of any kind. I have an excel table with dates, times, loot drops and score for 300 runs that I've recorded over the past year. You can not seriously tell me this is acceptable. (not, I tried to cut and paste the contents of the table here, but it contained too much text apparently). Can you offer me any sort of feedback for this apart from "working as intended"? Because if I as a player, dedicated an ABSURD amount of time to this without ANY usable reward, I honestly cant justify spending my free time here. Note that the 300 are just the RECORDED runs, there has been a few more....

Haha, I'll feel soo bad for you if they increase gear level cap and you finally get yourself a sharpened weapon!

deevoh1991 · December 2016

Vma isn't worth the effort imo

GreenhaloX · December 2016

300+ runs of vMA.. you are my hero. That is some good patience and tolerance you have. A few runs and that's good enough for me. Good for you.. kudos!

jakeedmundson · December 2016

Hamiltonmath wrote: »
Prof_Bawbag wrote: »
Reorx_Holybeard wrote: »
Cozzy1991 wrote: »

Hamiltonmath wrote: »

Cozzy1991 wrote: »

And not a single sharpened weapon of any kind. I have an excel table with dates, times, loot drops and score for 300 runs that I've recorded over the past year. You can not seriously tell me this is acceptable. (not, I tried to cut and paste the contents of the table here, but it contained too much text apparently). Can you offer me any sort of feedback for this apart from "working as intended"? Because if I as a player, dedicated an ABSURD amount of time to this without ANY usable reward, I honestly cant justify spending my free time here. Note that the 300 are just the RECORDED runs, there has been a few more....

It's almost statistically impossible for that to happen. And you have NO usable reward? No precise daggers/axes/bows? No powered resto?

Nope. No precise weapons, no sharpened weapons, no defending weapons, no powered resto. Statistically, I've been screwed.

Either your RNG is broken or you aren't being completely honest in the loot distribution. The chance to have 0 precise, sharpened, or defending weapons in 300 runs is:
Traits = 3 out of 9 = 33%
Chance = (1 - 0.33) ^ 300 = 6.6e-53
Now in a large MMO like ESO you'd expect to see rare events happen from time to time just due to the number of people playing. Perhaps 1 in a million (1e-6) or maybe even 1 in a billion (1e-9) but something with a chance of 6e-53 means something is terrible wrong somewhere,

If you truly did complete 300 vMA with no precise/sharpened/defending rewards I would start a petition request to have it looked at.
I have no idea why others are so determined to disprove the claims of others when it's all based around the God awful RNG. It's similar to the time I claimed i have gutted over 700 fish and have still to receive my first perfect roe. Someone shot my claim down like i had something to gain by claiming I get no roe. Only ZoS can back up any claim made on here and by the same token only they can disprove any claim made on here. Seriously, some of us get a good shafting with certain things whilst others get a lot more than the statistics say they should. My perfect roe haul is non existent, whereas the gold mats I have received via the craft table probably puts most peoples to shame.
Because Math .

Great... prove the drop rates for items and traits... then maybe people will care about the math. (and not the chart from Kasa-Obake - it is nice and i helped with the information but it is still based on a small sample)

So, until that happens... from zos' side... all "math" is based on speculation and assumptions and no one can prove or disprove someone else's drops.

I've done vMA maybe... 50-60 times? The one item i went in to find, a sharpened lightning staff, hasn't dropped... and not just that sharpened hasn't dropped... NO lightning staff has dropped. It's a horrible system. It needs to change. End of story.

rotaugen454 · December 2016

Are the drop rates identical on all traits, or are they weighted?

Paneross · December 2016

Of the 12 weapons I have only 1 is Sharpened. Makes me not like VMA.

MushmouthThomas · December 2016

I have done MSA 5 or 6 times. All but 1 were during 2x. I got a sharpened dagger, sharped 2h axe, and maybe a sharped 1h mace. I got a couple resto staves and 2 hand mauls I think as well. I got my first bow after the 2x event ended. I have yet to get a destro staff or 1 hand axe.