After farming vMA casually since Orsinium Celebration... anything from ZOS?

Meld777 · November 2016

LeeroyGankins wrote: »

Judgedread101071 wrote: »

Meld777 wrote: »

8 Resto Staffs, 5 of them Charged, in 19 runs.

I know this is a small sample, but considering each weapon's drop chance is supposed to be 1/12=8.3%... it's at the very least questionnable since others keep experiencing the same. Can't wait for a bigger sample (maybe from someone who's farming this more hardcore than I am) to see if there's really a much heavier weight on Restos and Bows, as suggested by @Alanar.

I can confirm.Same case with me and many guildies as well. Bows and restos have a higher drop rate for most of the people i know. And if you say anything about "RNG" is rigged then you have some potato-head sayin "RNG" is "RNG" and anything goes with a random number generator!!
156 weapons in inventory.
33 of them bows.
23 of them restos.
29 of them 1H and shield.
So 3 weapons out of the 12 have a drop rate of more than 50%.
But good luck in trying to get their attention.After i have a complete 200 weapons inventory i ll make a video and after that i am done trying to get them to listen.It's not like they dont know!!
They deliberately keep that stupid "RNG" to keep us in their game.
I just hope at some point people will team up and we can make them listen to us.

Unfortunately I need to correct you again.....

Equal chance does not mean equal distribution in a small sample

Grab a random number generator anywhere you want, and generate a random number from 1-8 156 times. (each number to represent a weapon type).

See for yourself that you will often have a lopsided sample because it is a small one. In fact if you generated perfect distributions many times in a row, then the RNG is probably rigged for real.

@LeeroyGankins What about this sample?

covenant_merchant · November 2016

@LeeroyGankins the previous poster linked it, but I'd rather just paste it on this thread too. Spreading awareness and all.

{Taken from the "Double VMA Loot: Which weapons you got}, and my own thread {Trying to prove that the RNJesus is skewed}}

Okay so, I've taken all the loot I got from vMSA, the loot of the people who posted there (only took those who mentioned trait + item for every run and ignored quotes + double posts) bringing the total to 510 drops. It's not much but still more than the people who QQ for 10 runs (and I should know, I'm already crying after 10 runs since the event started).

At any rate, here are the results:

And here's some pie charts to help you visualize better:

As you can see, Sharpened is actually the trait that dropped the most out of 510 items. But they all seem pretty equivalent. No reason to cry so far about rigged rng, right ?

However let's take a look at the items themselves:

See ? While the trait drops are pretty similar, the items themselves do not have the same chance to drop, which goes in line with what @Alanar was saying earlier in the thread.

Alanar wrote: »

I've tracked 48 VMA drops, and I can confirm that the 12 weapons do not drop evenly (p < 0.02).

And among these unevenly distributed loots, we have this:

@ZOS_RichLambert @ZOS_JessicaFolsom @ZOS_GinaBruno Would you please reconsider having all two-handed weapons for instance with one unique chance to drop instead of 1 chance per exact weapon type?

Just give every weapon a probability to drop of 1/12, and then 1/8 chance to get one particular trait. That would give a sharpened fire staff a 1/96 probability to drop, same as a infused battle-axe, same as a powered dagger... You get my point.

Right now however, we have this unfair mess:

Alanar wrote: »

. So your chances of getting a specific weapon are:

Bow - 1/6
Restoration Staff - 1/6

Dagger - 1/12
Sword - 1/12
Mace - 1/12
Axe - 1/12

Greatsword - 1/18
Battle Axe - 1/18
Maul - 1/18
Lightning Staff - 1/18
Frost Staff - 1/18
Fire Staff - 1/18

So if you're hunting a sharpened fire staff, you have a 1/18 chance of getting a fire staff at all, and a 1/8 chance of getting sharpened, for a total chance of 1/144 on each drop.

Of course, what would be even more reasonable, is to remove useless traits from the vMSA loot table at all. I understand that you've tried to improve them and make them more competitive. Well, I'm sorry to inform you that it didn't work. Sharpened by far outmatches any other trait on any offensive weapon, be it in PvP or PvE.

I don't know if you'll read this; I mean I guess you're tagged in a whole bunch of comments from butthurt kids, but this is actually a bit more serious than "omg another charged resto. Give me my BiS gear, I deserve it".

You've listened to people complaining about RESTORATION STAVES OF RED MOUNTAIN out of all things. How can you blatantly ignore vMSA drops and a major chunk of end-game PvE content?

We do not have Arcane Rings of the Vicious Ophidian dropping in 12-men Trials, after all. So why should we deal with Powered destruction staves.. I know I'm comparing "smart loot" types with weapon traits here, but the end result is the same. You wouldn't wear an Arcane ring of the Vicious Ophidian to do end-game PvE, and you wouldn't use a Powered Fire staff either.

PvP players are even worse off, since they do not even have a PvP equivalent to vDSA - vMSA weapons. There's no 1-slot/bonus weapon available to you through PvP. Or at all actually. Just these 1/144 chance to drop vMSA weapons.

You want your customers to enjoy the game, right? (Well, you probably want them to pay and consume more, but lets just pretend for a second that you do have good intentions at heart). Not everyone enjoys the PvE aspect of the game. And even fewer people enjoy spending more or less one hour doing the same arenas over and over and over and over again simply to be rewarded unusable loot that cannot even be sold to make some profit (52 gold, really?).

Being severely limited in your choice of builds because there simply is no alternative to these 1-piece/bonus weapons is disheartening. And there's a number of suggestions that people have already put up on forums and tried to convey to you, if only you were willing to listen.

Make a token system: get tokens after each run, and a certain amount of tokens gives you the right to chose a weapon
Add Undaunted Plunder to vMSA, or any kind of material reward. It is a Trial, after all. People spend valuable and expensive potions, repair gear, only to be rewarded with nothing. It's one of the biggest gold sinks in game at the moment, along with crafting motifs. And not everyone has gold to sink to begin with.
Bring back the old trait system: Sharpened - Precise - Defending, which worked, and should not have been changed to begin with.
Give all vMSA weapons the same probability to drop, instead of one global probability per big weapon type, and then one chance per sub-type.
Make vMSA weapons tradeable between people who have completed it in a day/week/ever.
Make vMSA weapons Bind on Equip.
Add other interesting sets for people to take interest in vMSA again. (Apart from Winterborn, and maybe Hunt on a stamblade with shade, the sets that drop from vMSA are worthless).
Give the vMSA shield an actual one-piece bonus, instead of the random piece of chopped wood we get and instantly get rid off.
Give PvP players a similar one-piece/bonus weapon to get through PvP means (amount of Alliance Points perhaps?).
Indirectly, make jewerly craftable. Right now we're stuck with willpower/agility/endurance or aether/ophidian 3 piece combos. Which means that, should you want to equip a 5-piece bonus set and an undaunted set, you're stuck with a no-set staff (this is mostly viable for PvP though). Making jewerly craftable would give more variety to builds, and less necessity to farm vMSA for players who just don't want to have random weapons equipped.

These all seem like reasonable suggestions, and there were threads made, polls voted upon, and overall a big response from the community about this issue. But, whenever you get your hopes up seing that there is a Z logo next to it and a dev has commented, it's usually to say "this thread has been moved to X category" or "this comment has been edited for profanity/irrelevance".
Come on, team! We know you're here somewhere, doing /lurk on ERP threads. So lets talk for once about what actually matters.

EDITED:

ZOS_GinaBruno wrote: »

Rich hasn't been arrested. He still silently lurks the forums daily, but word on the street is that you're more likely to get a /lurk out of him with constructive posts.

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

I normally lurk on the forums pretty regularly – expect to see me out and about a bit more often.

@ZOS_RichLambert @ZOS_GinaBruno this is as constructive as posts can get.

#vMSAmatters

LeeroyGankins · November 2016

Meld777 wrote: »

LeeroyGankins wrote: »

Judgedread101071 wrote: »

Meld777 wrote: »

8 Resto Staffs, 5 of them Charged, in 19 runs.

I know this is a small sample, but considering each weapon's drop chance is supposed to be 1/12=8.3%... it's at the very least questionnable since others keep experiencing the same. Can't wait for a bigger sample (maybe from someone who's farming this more hardcore than I am) to see if there's really a much heavier weight on Restos and Bows, as suggested by @Alanar.

I can confirm.Same case with me and many guildies as well. Bows and restos have a higher drop rate for most of the people i know. And if you say anything about "RNG" is rigged then you have some potato-head sayin "RNG" is "RNG" and anything goes with a random number generator!!
156 weapons in inventory.
33 of them bows.
23 of them restos.
29 of them 1H and shield.
So 3 weapons out of the 12 have a drop rate of more than 50%.
But good luck in trying to get their attention.After i have a complete 200 weapons inventory i ll make a video and after that i am done trying to get them to listen.It's not like they dont know!!
They deliberately keep that stupid "RNG" to keep us in their game.
I just hope at some point people will team up and we can make them listen to us.

Unfortunately I need to correct you again.....

Equal chance does not mean equal distribution in a small sample

Grab a random number generator anywhere you want, and generate a random number from 1-8 156 times. (each number to represent a weapon type).

See for yourself that you will often have a lopsided sample because it is a small one. In fact if you generated perfect distributions many times in a row, then the RNG is probably rigged for real.

@LeeroyGankins What about this sample?

I am going to look at the graphs in more detail, but right off the bat, I noticed that sharpened dropped 19% of the time. If you expected an even distribution, sharpen should only occur 12.5% of the time. That's over 50% more than an even distribution, in a supposedly "rigged" system to give you the most useless traits.

The problem is, when someone else gets let's say charged 19% of the time, he will say "rigged" and everyone will agree.

LeeroyGankins · November 2016

kasa-obake wrote: »

@LeeroyGankins the previous poster linked it, but I'd rather just paste it on this thread too. Spreading awareness and all.

{Taken from the "Double VMA Loot: Which weapons you got}, and my own thread {Trying to prove that the RNJesus is skewed}}

Okay so, I've taken all the loot I got from vMSA, the loot of the people who posted there (only took those who mentioned trait + item for every run and ignored quotes + double posts) bringing the total to 510 drops. It's not much but still more than the people who QQ for 10 runs (and I should know, I'm already crying after 10 runs since the event started).

At any rate, here are the results:

And here's some pie charts to help you visualize better:

As you can see, Sharpened is actually the trait that dropped the most out of 510 items. But they all seem pretty equivalent. No reason to cry so far about rigged rng, right ?

However let's take a look at the items themselves:

See ? While the trait drops are pretty similar, the items themselves do not have the same chance to drop, which goes in line with what @Alanar was saying earlier in the thread.

Alanar wrote: »

I've tracked 48 VMA drops, and I can confirm that the 12 weapons do not drop evenly (p < 0.02).

And among these unevenly distributed loots, we have this:

@ZOS_RichLambert @ZOS_JessicaFolsom @ZOS_GinaBruno Would you please reconsider having all two-handed weapons for instance with one unique chance to drop instead of 1 chance per exact weapon type?

Just give every weapon a probability to drop of 1/12, and then 1/8 chance to get one particular trait. That would give a sharpened fire staff a 1/96 probability to drop, same as a infused battle-axe, same as a powered dagger... You get my point.

Right now however, we have this unfair mess:

Alanar wrote: »

. So your chances of getting a specific weapon are:

Bow - 1/6
Restoration Staff - 1/6

Dagger - 1/12
Sword - 1/12
Mace - 1/12
Axe - 1/12

Greatsword - 1/18
Battle Axe - 1/18
Maul - 1/18
Lightning Staff - 1/18
Frost Staff - 1/18
Fire Staff - 1/18

So if you're hunting a sharpened fire staff, you have a 1/18 chance of getting a fire staff at all, and a 1/8 chance of getting sharpened, for a total chance of 1/144 on each drop.

Of course, what would be even more reasonable, is to remove useless traits from the vMSA loot table at all. I understand that you've tried to improve them and make them more competitive. Well, I'm sorry to inform you that it didn't work. Sharpened by far outmatches any other trait on any offensive weapon, be it in PvP or PvE.

I don't know if you'll read this; I mean I guess you're tagged in a whole bunch of comments from butthurt kids, but this is actually a bit more serious than "omg another charged resto. Give me my BiS gear, I deserve it".

You've listened to people complaining about RESTORATION STAVES OF RED MOUNTAIN out of all things. How can you blatantly ignore vMSA drops and a major chunk of end-game PvE content?

We do not have Arcane Rings of the Vicious Ophidian dropping in 12-men Trials, after all. So why should we deal with Powered destruction staves.. I know I'm comparing "smart loot" types with weapon traits here, but the end result is the same. You wouldn't wear an Arcane ring of the Vicious Ophidian to do end-game PvE, and you wouldn't use a Powered Fire staff either.

PvP players are even worse off, since they do not even have a PvP equivalent to vDSA - vMSA weapons. There's no 1-slot/bonus weapon available to you through PvP. Or at all actually. Just these 1/144 chance to drop vMSA weapons.

You want your customers to enjoy the game, right? (Well, you probably want them to pay and consume more, but lets just pretend for a second that you do have good intentions at heart). Not everyone enjoys the PvE aspect of the game. And even fewer people enjoy spending more or less one hour doing the same arenas over and over and over and over again simply to be rewarded unusable loot that cannot even be sold to make some profit (52 gold, really?).

Being severely limited in your choice of builds because there simply is no alternative to these 1-piece/bonus weapons is disheartening. And there's a number of suggestions that people have already put up on forums and tried to convey to you, if only you were willing to listen.
Make a token system: get tokens after each run, and a certain amount of tokens gives you the right to chose a weapon

Add Undaunted Plunder to vMSA, or any kind of material reward. It is a Trial, after all. People spend valuable and expensive potions, repair gear, only to be rewarded with nothing. It's one of the biggest gold sinks in game at the moment, along with crafting motifs. And not everyone has gold to sink to begin with.

Bring back the old trait system: Sharpened - Precise - Defending, which worked, and should not have been changed to begin with.

Give all vMSA weapons the same probability to drop, instead of one global probability per big weapon type, and then one chance per sub-type.

Make vMSA weapons tradeable between people who have completed it in a day/week/ever.

Make vMSA weapons Bind on Equip.

Add other interesting sets for people to take interest in vMSA again. (Apart from Winterborn, and maybe Hunt on a stamblade with shade, the sets that drop from vMSA are worthless).

Give the vMSA shield an actual one-piece bonus, instead of the random piece of chopped wood we get and instantly get rid off.

Give PvP players a similar one-piece/bonus weapon to get through PvP means (amount of Alliance Points perhaps?).

Indirectly, make jewerly craftable. Right now we're stuck with willpower/agility/endurance or aether/ophidian 3 piece combos. Which means that, should you want to equip a 5-piece bonus set and an undaunted set, you're stuck with a no-set staff (this is mostly viable for PvP though). Making jewerly craftable would give more variety to builds, and less necessity to farm vMSA for players who just don't want to have random weapons equipped.

These all seem like reasonable suggestions, and there were threads made, polls voted upon, and overall a big response from the community about this issue. But, whenever you get your hopes up seing that there is a Z logo next to it and a dev has commented, it's usually to say "this thread has been moved to X category" or "this comment has been edited for profanity/irrelevance".
Come on, team! We know you're here somewhere, doing /lurk on ERP threads. So lets talk for once about what actually matters.

EDITED:

ZOS_GinaBruno wrote: »

Rich hasn't been arrested. He still silently lurks the forums daily, but word on the street is that you're more likely to get a /lurk out of him with constructive posts.

ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »

I normally lurk on the forums pretty regularly – expect to see me out and about a bit more often.

@ZOS_RichLambert @ZOS_GinaBruno this is as constructive as posts can get.

#vMSAmatters

Lol Rich is def lurking but not talking much. I most definitely agree with making a token system, because weighted or not, the RNG is still immense for the amount of work put in. Hundreds of hours of solo grind in a MMO just doesn't make sense.
Also love the idea of adding more rewarding sets into VMA, if the weapons drop rates are the same.

I think these are all good feedbacks to amend the current system. The reason why I tend to think that the skewed results are from variances rather than a "rigged" table is that sometimes the good stuff drop more. As concluded in your 500+ runs, both sharpen and precise are the most frequent drops. Sharpen, being the most powerful trait, dropped 50% more time than expected. Samples such as these are often ignored. Samples where charged became the most often drop are the definitive proof of a rigged system.

I do see your point with the double handed weapons tho. It is very likely that all the destro staff are grouped together right now, as destro staff. Since there aren't any different kind of bows, bows will drop more than fire destro. Likewise for duel wield, there's axe and dagger, and it is possible that they are lumped into one category also. If this is indeed the case, that will explain why fire destro is so difficult to get.

Stillian · November 2016

Meld777 wrote: »

andy_s wrote: »

Meld777 wrote: »

andy_s wrote: »

Expected worse drop after I got 10 resto staves. Also I got very little amount of 2h non staff weapons, so RNG looks really random so far...

Well, I also got an Inferno (Defending). Considering the current meta, it's about as useless as yours.

It's not. Maelstrom Inferno backbar for wall of elements, Aether/Moondancer front bar. Also with some adjustments to cp and good uptime of alkosh on bosses both sharpend and precise are almost equal. @Stillian always uses precise and getting good numbers with it

Stillian doesn't have a Precise Inferno. He only has a Nirnhoned and a Defending one, which he both got yesterday.
And yes, if I get a Precise Inferno, I'll definitely test it.

I think he meant trait itself, not maelstrom, and yeah i like precise more. Though i dont have neither precise nor sharpened maelstrom anyway

Meld777 · November 2016

Added 1 more run to initial post:

22. Powered Resto / Nirnhoned Maul

Making it 10 Restos in 22 runs now. Almost 50% of all drops. Considering I ran this arena ~400 times before already and never got my drop, I should really stop doing this to myself. Otherwise, I might actually quit ESO over it. Someone please make sure I don't run vMA anymore.

Preyfar · November 2016

I keep getting Charged gear, and it's really discouraging. Only 1 sharpened in about over dozen runs, two or three precise. Everything else has been junk.

Pallio · November 2016

Finally focused and finished, first clear ended with a precise bow / sharpened bow.. made all those painful hours "days" worth it.

Meld777 · November 2016

Pallio wrote: »

Finally focused and finished, first clear ended with a precise bow / sharpened bow.. made all those painful hours "days" worth it.

Gratz!

I would leave it at that if you wanna keep a good memory of vMA. Unless of course you want 50 more bows. Then you should run it 50 more times.

Namarkas · November 2016

Don't forget that the "bigger sample" is still not very representative, for a simple reason: the data is from people posting on the forums. Which people write this sort of things on the forum? The people that still need a very specific from vMSA. And that are normally people who either need a sharpened inferno, or sharpened dw. But the Inferno staff seems to be the most hyped one. So there will be more samples of people missing those particular weapons here, than people who got already 5 inferno sharpened, or never did vMSA again after they got it.
That being said,I feel you, give me my sharpened dagger&axe and inferno, enough sword&board and resto for me thanks -_-

covenant_merchant · November 2016

@Namarkas read the posts on this thread. Many people have gotten sharpened weapons and were eager to share. As for my 216 runs, I eat sharpened bows and swords and daggers for breakfast.

Agobi · November 2016

Just another thread reminding me why RNG is bullcr@p,copout from lazy developers who cant be @rsed to think of a way to actually make effort = reward

*cough* tokensystem* * cough*

Ain't RNG "fun"

Oreyn_Bearclaw · November 2016

There is only one way that they will change the system, and that is if people just stop running it. You guys farming this week are playing right into their hands. #boycottVMA

Meld777 · November 2016

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

There is only one way that they will change the system, and that is if people just stop running it. You guys farming this week are playing right into their hands. #boycottVMA

There's a good chance this system is in place to keep the end game community smaller. I've seen so many people quit over this and, in combination with zero response from ZOS, it would be logical. The game is very lore-focused, the typical ESO player isn't a hardcore WoW raider.

Step 1: Introduce vMA and make desired weapons obtainable for some time.
Step 2: Pollute loot table to the point that getting the desired weapon isn't realistic, even for a hardcore gamer.
Step 3: Watch a huge portion of the end game community quit due to the "unfair" move in step 2.
Step 4: New players see the (very small) end game community from step 1 with Maelstrom weapons, but are too new to know about step 2, so they think every player in the end game community went through the tough grind with useless traits. So they farm the arena until they give up/quit, and only a small portion of vMA farmers gets to "stay".

I don't need a vMA weapon to be competitive. I know my class well and I'm in an amazing raiding guild. But I see how those steps would make sense for ZOS to try to keep the amount of "hardcore gamers" small. That's why you will never see ZOS comment on vMA drop rates. Same reason why there will never be a token system or anything that will give the hardcore gamers a light in the end of the tunnel. They need to be filtered, so that the new players (and so far, player numbers seem to be increasing) are met with less elitism.

Meld777 · November 2016

Added 1 more run to initial post:

23. Precise Resto / Decisive Mace

Not sure if it's 2x loot week or "Free Resto + Loot" week. 1 more Resto on the next run and it's going to be exactly 50% Resto drops in 24 runs.

Namarkas · November 2016

kasa-obake wrote: »

@Namarkas read the posts on this thread. Many people have gotten sharpened weapons and were eager to share. As for my 216 runs, I eat sharpened bows and swords and daggers for breakfast.

Hm, I actually read the posts, and many looked like "still need that one weapon" to me, but maybe i missed some. Anyway, my point simply was that the person getting frustrated after 50+ runs bc the weapon they want simply doesn't drop (understandable ofc) will be more likely here on the forums looking for vma rng threads than a person who gets one BiS weapon every 4 runs and quits after 20 runs, saying "great thing was fun cu vMA". So this kind of statistic is always endagered to be more on the "negative" side.

Meld777 · November 2016

Added 2 more runs to initial post:

24. Nirnhoned Maul / Defending Dagger
25. Sharpened Resto / Charged Mace

glavius · November 2016

Isn't it possible that theres equal chance of getting a resto staff drop, as there is of getting a destro staff drop in general. Meaning 1/3 chance of getting the type of destro staff you're after, vs. getting a resto staff?
Same for axe/dagger, 1/2 chance of getting the exact type you want compared to the chance of getting a resto.
Sword/mace, 1/2 chance of getting the exact type you want, compared to the chance of getting a resto.
And 2h sword/mace/axe, 1/3 chance of getting the exact type you need compared to a resto.
With bow having same chance as resto because there is also only 1 type of bow.

The charts above would certainly indicate that it might be this way.

Arkangeloski · November 2016

I have done 16 runs and no usable traits, at this point i feel like a mindless zombie on auto pilot slaving on vmsa.
There is no fun on it or reward to keep you coming back for more, the only thing that push me to do this is that "double drop" and friends telling me how much time im saving by this event. But be sure if stuff is as bad with double drops, expect no less when it goes back to normal and when that happens im not doing it again.

!Good luck to you guys!

Meld777 · November 2016

glavius wrote: »

Isn't it possible that theres equal chance of getting a resto staff drop, as there is of getting a destro staff drop in general. Meaning 1/3 chance of getting the type of destro staff you're after, vs. getting a resto staff?
Same for axe/dagger, 1/2 chance of getting the exact type you want compared to the chance of getting a resto.
Sword/mace, 1/2 chance of getting the exact type you want, compared to the chance of getting a resto.
And 2h sword/mace/axe, 1/3 chance of getting the exact type you need compared to a resto.
With bow having same chance as resto because there is also only 1 type of bow.

The charts above would certainly indicate that it might be this way.

Yep, as far as I see it, this is exactly how it works, making the chance to get a Sharpened Inferno 1/144

glavius · November 2016

Haha and if thats true:
Chance of not getting sharpened inferno after 100 double drop runs is 24,8%.

glavius · November 2016

Chance of not getting sharpened inferno after 200 double drop runs is 6,1%
Chance of not getting sharpened inferno after 300 double drop runs is 1,5%
Chance of not getting sharpened inferno after 500 double drop runs is 0,1% So even after 1k regular runs or 500 double drop runs, still 1 out of 1000 ppl will not have gotten that exact staff ^^

TheHsN · November 2016

AWWW you are lucky... after 150+ run i even dont get any inferno staff.. just one useful items and it is sharpened bow..

it is not like festival for VMA it is like festival for Charged ,Decisive ,Powered and Defending trait festival

bottleofsyrup · November 2016

The drops are a complete joke. "Oh, now you get a weapon 100% of the time!" With how completely junk most of the drops are, you might as well go back to the old way.

notimetocare · November 2016

Anyone else find it funny that 'casually' farming is 25 runs in 5 days? Even fast runs are 40+m...

Meld777 · November 2016

glavius wrote: »

Haha and if thats true:
Chance of not getting sharpened inferno after 100 double drop runs is 24,8%.

glavius wrote: »

Chance of not getting sharpened inferno after 200 double drop runs is 6,1%
Chance of not getting sharpened inferno after 300 double drop runs is 1,5%
Chance of not getting sharpened inferno after 500 double drop runs is 0,1% So even after 1k regular runs or 500 double drop runs, still 1 out of 1000 ppl will not have gotten that exact staff ^^

@glavius

I don't think your math is correct. There is 6 categories with an equal drop chance (Bow, Resto, 1h, 1h/s, Destro, 2h), each 1/6. Destro category has 3 items: Lightning, Fire, Frost, making the chance of a Fire Staff drop 1/3 * 1/6 = 1/18. There are 8 traits, so the change of getting a Sharpened Inferno each run is 1/18 * 1/8 = 1/144

The chance of NOT getting it in one run is 143/144. So the chance to NOT get it in 100 runs is (143/144)^100 = 50%.

Aaaah, I think you meant the chance during the event. Sorry, now I see it. I'm blind. Yep, but it's very unrealistic to farm it 200 times in 2 weeks. Even for 100 times you need to be Andy on cocaine.

notimetocare wrote: »

Anyone else find it funny that 'casually' farming is 25 runs in 5 days? Even fast runs are 40+m...

When I was creating this thread I was planning to run it 10 times max... but then I got carried away.

Stillian · November 2016

Just a bump for topic to create some hype. I have exact same (snip) in vma, and in our raid group (which is one of 3 best on server, hardcore players and so on) we only have 3 out 8 damage dealers who have maelstrom weapon in desired trait. 1 more has not perfect trait, and 4 dont have weapon they need at all.

Meld777 · November 2016

I gave up. Won't be running it anymore. 400+ runs without my desired weapon. Now 25 runs since the event and it doesn't look any better. The chances are too low to be realistic. Maybe someone will get lucky at some point. But as some have mentioned, 0%x2 is 0%. The chances are too low for the double drops to have any meaning.