I just got 3 alloys from 200 ore.. You are just unlucky.

I usually get about 1 temp alloy per 300 in batches. They really need to add more things to decon in gold like at least the prosperous monster shoulders from undaunted chests that I have to decon every day would be a great place to start.

fastolfv_ESO wrote: »

sadly to get closer to the real drop rate your refining size would need to be closer to a million, these people saying well i did 2k and i got more so your unlucky my numbers are the true rate are talking out of their butts ignore em

I can't remember how big my numbers got when I was tracking my refining (I can possibly check my spreadsheet when I get home), but it was over a period of months, with 24 hireling mails delivering raw mats for each craft every day (so a total of 72 hireling mails per day with raw mats that could be refined), plus I pretty much always grab whatever nodes I see while I'm out and about playing the game.

I was keeping track based on number of refines (so the number of raw mats refined divided by 10), and I'm sure the number was in the thousands for each craft.

I won't pretend that that's enough to give an absolute answer on the rates to get gold upgrade mats, but for all 3 crafts the rate at which I got them was very very close to 5%. There was a little bit of variance, but not much (I think it was roughly plus or minus 0.25%).

I got 15 out of 3.4k ore yesterday.

I usually refine about 6k or more of each, every month.

I definitely have more green, blue, and purple than I will ever use, and never enough gold.

I also have way more wood, metal, cloth, and leather than I will ever use.

Working as intended. Just need to pray to Rngesus, and farm a lot. Hirelings help too if you have 12 of them.

I ran four Vet dungeons this morning and got three training and one prosperous helmet.

On a related is there any reason CP160 Monster Helms drop in training?

I'll you borrow some of my RNG, I refined 1113 ores and got 31 temps c:

Wow OP, git gud on taming RNG lulz. L2Tame!

On a serious note, the RNG system in ESO is ridiculous, I feel for you for actually having to go through a success rate of 0.2% on that one as I too have gone through a similar situation.

UrQuan wrote: »

OK, I dug up my refining spreadsheet. Here's the results for golds (I tracked this by number of refines, so remember that each refine is equal to 10 raw mats).

Blacksmithing
# Refines: 3,657
# Golds: 173
Rate: 4.73%

Clothing
# Refines: 5,421
# Golds: 274
Rate: 5.05%

Woodworking
# Refines: 3,025
# Golds: 162
Rate: 5.36%

So it's a bit more of a variance than I remembered, but based on the sample size I'd call that a very reasonable variance if the rate is meant to be 5%

@UrQuan
Nice. Wish I had more RNG luck tho because from my personal experience, I think I may have gotten ~2% success rate or even lower each time I had bulks of raw mats (in '000s). I always get around 10-20 golds from each 1000 bulk of raw mat.
Not complaining or anything as I know that's how RNG is supposed to work, to nurture your anger through frustrations or sense of gratitude through luck. *sigh* *unzips*

I've been convinced for ages now that there is a bit more than simple random probability. I think on any given day there is a better chance of getting one particular temper, resins etc on one type than on the other. When I have a load of unrefined mats I refine 50 of each type first (i.e. blacksmith, clothing and woodwork) to see which is giving best returns before refining all my mats. Then, I ONLY refine mats of that type on that day.
Seriously, try it, it works!!

alexkdd99 wrote: »

SHADOW2KK wrote: »

neville_bart0s wrote: »

SHADOW2KK wrote: »

Lol OP, thats severely bad rng for ya

Maybe I should not say this, but a good number of times, I have refined next to nothing in terms of ore, and got temporing alloys

holy *** that is insane... its almost like its random but it couldnt be because everyone knows that Wrobel personally decides who gets temps and who doesnt

I do have more than my fair share of luck in game, and in a lot of other unrelated thingies too, but I have yet to get a sharpened VmA staff, after a lot of runs, so RNG giveth and taketh away lol

I have gotten a sharpened of every vma weapon except for a destro, of course I main a magsorc to.

I'mgonna try and trick the RNG, by using the Sharpened Daggers and Maul Ifarmed with my MagBlade on my StamBlade, who'll then proceed to find the Sharpened Staves

Dagoth_Rac wrote: »

Ackwalan wrote: »

I really believe the RNG can get 'stuck' which creates the long droughts. A while ago I did a small experiment. I went out and got 200 fish. For the first 100 fillet, I did it all at once and I got 1 roe. For the next 100, I did them in groups of 10 with long periods of breaks (a few hours to a day) in between, and I got 3 roe. Now this was just me, and in order to do a real study you would need many people trying this, but then again, RNG is crappy.

This is a variation of the "gamblers fallacy". In casinos, the roulette tables will have big digital signs next to them listing the last 20 or so numbers to come out. Do you think they are doing that to help the player? Of course not! They want you to look at board and say, "No odd number has come out in a while. I bet one is due! I'm going all in on odd." Or, "14 has come out three times in the last 20 spins. I bet it is more likely to come out than other numbers. I am going to bet that!" Or, "No red number has come out on this table in a while, I am going to go to the other roulette table."

But all of this is random and the randomness is most visible in small sample sets (thus the last 20 spins, not last 20,000 spins).

You can all jump in circles and do rain dances and kiss your "R" key and log in and out and use different crafting stations ... but it is still a completely independent roll each time with no gold temper 19 of 20 times.

Perhaps ZOS should make this "gamblers fallacy" the way to handle the Maelstrom RNG.

Not anymore the RNG of a random dice, a RNG without memory
But the RNG of a deck of cards, a RNG with a memory,
ensuring you always get that Ace of Spades after 52 draws.
The seeding of the RNG is only how the deck is shuffled, which detemines WHEN you get your desired weapon.


Implementing that:
The current way the percentages between the kind of weapons is organised is a bit clumsy:
From 6 kinds of weapons, each kind of weapons has a 1:6 chance and is then divided by the nr of weapons of that kind.
So Destro is 1:6 and because there are 3 Destro staffs, each has a 1:18 chance.
With 8 traits this would cause a deck of 144 "cards".
Not nice, but you have the certainty that you have it after 144 runs.

AND.... the more runs you did without your wished for weapon/trait.... the more chance you get it the next run !!!


Here below the TLTR that describes the numbers.
The clumsy factor that comes in is caused by the one-hand weapons:
The six kinds are:

1. Destro for 1:6 & 3 kinds => 1:18 for each Destro type
2. Bow for 1:6 & only 1 kind => 1:6 for Bow
3. Two-handed 1:6 & 3 kinds => 1:18 for each Two-handed type
4. Resto for 1:6 & only 1 kind => 1:6 for Resto
5. One-handed DW 1:6 & 2 kinds => 1:12 for each DW type
6. One-handed S&B 1:6 & 2 kinds => 1:12 for each S&B type

The common denominator of the first 4 listed weapons is 18 => a deck of 144 cards would cover all permutations.
The One-handed line is causing the clumsy issue, because it forces to 36 as common denominator. Causing a much too big deck of cards of 288.
This could easily be solved if ZOS would reduce the chance of the One-handed S&B to 1:9. Causing a 1:18 for each S&B type.
AND the One-handed DW would be increased to 1:4.5. Causing a 1:9 for each DW type, which fits very well by the need to have TWO weapons for your Dual wielding.
By this 18 is the common denominator for all weapons.

So... all in all a deck of 144 "cards" is technically very well possible

giving the Maelstrom RNG a memory... ensuring that your chances to get your weapon INCREASE after each failed run.