Undaunted Plunder - Devil's Advocate

BigBressler · September 2016

We, the players (at least us on the forums), vastly seem to agree that Undaunted Plunder, as a form of gold injection, will just inflate the economy. A solid argument. As in the real world, if any nation just decided to print more money, the value of one unit of currency would drop dramatically, causing inflation. Our economy is pretty stable for an mmo. Such a feature would cause the economy to go haywire if unchecked. We must consider that this is a fictional world, with a fictional economy. Fictional, though it may be, it is still living and breathing. We acknowledge Player to Player transactions in the game's economy, but there is a forgotten third party of this game's economy. NPC's - or in more game economic terms, "gold sinks."

I believe the biggest way to balance such a massive influx of gold into the world is to include high level, end-game, gold sinks. There is a feature heavily asked about coming early next year that would greatly help balance this out. Housing. We've all seen them; from the quaint little house in Wayrest, to the hulking castle in Glenumbra, these are possibly going to be the biggest gold sinks we've seen in the game. Currently the most expensive gold sink we have is probably the skill point reset shrines. A full point reset could cost up to, if not more than, 30k on highly leveled characters.

In conclusion, this could work. However, even with housing in place, I do not see it as enough. More gold sinks would be necessary to combat the great increase in wealth. What are your thoughts on possible gold sinks? Or do you still see Undaunted Plunder as having a highly negative impact on the game regardless?

Video related:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7yfaSTSxBQ

Minute_Waltz · September 2016

Question. Do we know how many of these do you get in a full run? Did any group test is before post like this come up? If its let say 1 per boss so 3-5 per run, and gold injection rate is comparable to farm dungeons selling gear to merchant, will this still be an issue?

UltimaJoe777 · September 2016

If the player market decides to inflate prices just because of Undaunted Plunder then that is no fault of Zenimax. They have provided players a means of earning gold since BoE is out, and that was removed so people have good incentive to run dungeons and trials.

alexkdd99 · September 2016

UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

If the player market decides to inflate prices just because of Undaunted Plunder then that is no fault of Zenimax. They have provided players a means of earning gold since BoE is out, and that was removed so people have good incentive to run dungeons and trials.

I think what he is saying is a larger portion of gold will be injected into the economy. More people with more gold means higher prices.

As of right now people who run trials sell there items for gold that was already in the economy, but now instead of 1 person gaining while another loses gold we will just have 1 person gaining it with nobody losing any.

Which means more gold in the economy, which can only lead to inflation, they are most definitely directly involved with the inflation of the market if this happens.

BigBressler · September 2016

Minute_Waltz wrote: »

Question. Do we know how many of these do you get in a full run? Did any group test is before post like this come up? If its let say 1 per boss so 3-5 per run, and gold injection rate is comparable to farm dungeons selling gear to merchant, will this still be an issue?

"By defeating bosses in the Veteran-mode Trials, you'll earn Undaunted Plunder – valuable items that can be sold to merchants for 1000 gold each.
Each boss you defeat will drop an increased amount of Undaunted Plunder that you can sell.
We're continuing to keep an eye on these rewards, and will continue to adjust them as needed."

EDIT: I think I misread your post the first time. It seems you get more of these items for each boss you kill per trial. So Boss 1 = 1, Boss 2 = 2, ect. It could be an issue in the sense that you're making much more from plunder items than just selling armor. Though considering they only come from vet trial bosses, I don't think it will be an issue at all. It's not like gold bots can go all out at level 1 and farm the bosses.

UltimaJoe777 · September 2016

alexkdd99 wrote: »

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UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

If the player market decides to inflate prices just because of Undaunted Plunder then that is no fault of Zenimax. They have provided players a means of earning gold since BoE is out, and that was removed so people have good incentive to run dungeons and trials.

I think what he is saying is a larger portion of gold will be injected into the economy. More people with more gold means higher prices.

As of right now people who run trials sell there items for gold that was already in the economy, but now instead of 1 person gaining while another loses gold we will just have 1 person gaining it with nobody losing any.

Which means more gold in the economy, which can only lead to inflation, they are most definitely directly involved with the inflation of the market if this happens.

That is the playerbase's decision though and they can decide not to inflate, so Zenimax is not responsible. Furthermore, there will be less expensive things to sell, which means any inflation that occurs will happen to materials, motifs, etc. and, apparently on Xbox, that's happening anyway.

Eleusian · September 2016

It's very possible ZOS has this thing called hard data they use to make decisions (like most Bussinesses) . And judging by what they see it will add some incentive for more people to do group content at the Vet level.

silvereyes · September 2016

UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

That is the playerbase's decision though and they can decide not to inflate

Lol. The "playerbase" is not a hive mind. As long as good gold is available for farming bosses, people *will* farm bosses. They aren't going to say, "gee, I'm going to choose not to do this personally advantageous thing on principle, because I think it would be bad for the economy."

UltimaJoe777 · September 2016

silvereyes wrote: »

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UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

That is the playerbase's decision though and they can decide not to inflate

Lol. The "playerbase" is not a hive mind. As long as good gold is available for farming bosses, people *will* farm bosses. They aren't going to say, "gee, I'm going to choose not to do this personally advantageous thing on principle, because I think it would be bad for the economy."

I think you misunderstood me lol I meant players can choose NOT to raise their prices just because a gold faucet got turned on.

silvereyes · September 2016

UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

I think you misunderstood me lol I meant players can choose NOT to raise their prices just because a gold faucet got turned on.

Oh, yeah, I did misunderstand you, but there's still a big problem with your statement. Inflation doesn't happen because sellers "decide" anything. Inflation happens because buyers are willing to spend more, because they have more gold available.

Consider this example.

Spoiler

A player needs to buy 10 columbines to make tri-pots for a raid next week. Say for example that MM average price for columbine is 300 gold each. All the 300 gold columbines are already sold out, because it's the weekend. But a seller has listed 10x columbine on the store for 400 gold each, hoping to catch someone desperate. The player doesn't need the columbines right away, and they are willing to come back and check prices later if they don't find any good prices.

Now say this player has only 3k to spend, but the only thing he needs are columbine. He will almost certainly decide that getting 10 columbine at market price later is much better than getting only 7 now, so he will come back later.

Now say this player has 4k available. He *may* decide to buy the 400 gold columbine despite the high price, to avoid having to go shopping later. He has enough money, so at least it's an option.

By making that purchase, he just moved the MM average up ever so slightly. He also used up the entire supply of 10x columbine for 400 gold ea.

Now say another player comes along with a ton of money and desperately needs columbine right away. Cost is no object, but all the 300 gold columbine and all the 400 gold columbine is gone. The only ones left are 600 gold, listed by some really greedy person. The desperate player buys the extremely overpriced flowers and drives up the MM average a bit more.

Does this make sense how *everybody* having more gold would lead to price inflation, regardless of whether most sellers decide to list mats at market price? Market price has an insidious way of moving up all on its own, just because of changes in buyer behavior.

Minute_Waltz · September 2016

So I can get a good group to run vet elden for example at 8min per run, by looting and selling everything to merchant thats about 2k each person. I can do this 5 times (40min) and 8k gold per person is injected into the game.
Alternatively I can run vHRC in 40min, if boss 1 = 1k, 2 = 2k etc, then ill only be getting 6k gold in that 40min run, or lets say 7k if i want to sell all the aether/VO junks to merchant.

So its still a loss to run trials in a way that you can earn from in dungeons, I seriously don't see the issue here.

Destyran · September 2016

silvereyes wrote: »

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UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

I think you misunderstood me lol I meant players can choose NOT to raise their prices just because a gold faucet got turned on.

Oh, yeah, I did misunderstand you, but there's still a big problem with your statement. Inflation doesn't happen because sellers "decide" anything. Inflation happens because buyers are willing to spend more, because they have more gold available.

Consider this example.
Spoiler
A player needs to buy 10 columbines to make tri-pots for a raid next week. Say for example that MM average price for columbine is 300 gold each. All the 300 gold columbines are already sold out, because it's the weekend. But a seller has listed 10x columbine on the store for 400 gold each, hoping to catch someone desperate. The player doesn't need the columbines right away, and they are willing to come back and check prices later if they don't find any good prices.

Now say this player has only 3k to spend, but the only thing he needs are columbine. He will almost certainly decide that getting 10 columbine at market price later is much better than getting only 7 now, so he will come back later.

Now say this player has 4k available. He *may* decide to buy the 400 gold columbine despite the high price, to avoid having to go shopping later. He has enough money, so at least it's an option.

By making that purchase, he just moved the MM average up ever so slightly. He also used up the entire supply of 10x columbine for 400 gold ea.

Now say another player comes along with a ton of money and desperately needs columbine right away. Cost is no object, but all the 300 gold columbine and all the 400 gold columbine is gone. The only ones left are 600 gold, listed by some really greedy person. The desperate player buys the extremely overpriced flowers and drives up the MM average a bit more.

Does this make sense how *everybody* having more gold would lead to price inflation, regardless of whether most sellers decide to list mats at market price? Market price has an insidious way of moving up all on its own, just because of changes in buyer behavior.

Columbine on xbox is selling for 1500 per one and almost every other flower is selling for 380-450g apart from namiras rot, its going for like 50k for 20 idiots jeep buying it and people keep putting prices up

BigBressler · September 2016

Minute_Waltz wrote: »

So I can get a good group to run vet elden for example at 8min per run, by looting and selling everything to merchant thats about 2k each person. I can do this 5 times (40min) and 8k gold per person is injected into the game.
Alternatively I can run vHRC in 40min, if boss 1 = 1k, 2 = 2k etc, then ill only be getting 6k gold in that 40min run, or lets say 7k if i want to sell all the aether/VO junks to merchant.

So its still a loss to run trials in a way that you can earn from in dungeons, I seriously don't see the issue here.

I'm gonna have to agree with you here. You would probably make more money farming mats and selling to players.

idk · September 2016

@BigBressler

Regardless of how the voices in the forums have expressed themselves, it is pure conjecture as to how this will effect the economy. Granted, the forums enjoys speaking on things with little information to base it on.

Additionally, your suggestion to make housing into a huge gold sink to balance out the fears you state some have will essentially make housing unattainable for many in the game by pricing it in such a manner you seem to suggest. Housing would only be for the rich in the world you paint.

Not a very good solution to a hypothetical situation.

BigBressler · September 2016

Giles.floydub17_ESO wrote: »

@BigBressler

Regardless of how the voices in the forums have expressed themselves, it is pure conjecture as to how this will effect the economy. Granted, the forums enjoys speaking on things with little information to base it on.

Additionally, your suggestion to make housing into a huge gold sink to balance out the fears you state some have will essentially make housing unattainable for many in the game by pricing it in such a manner you seem to suggest. Housing would only be for the rich in the world you paint.

Not a very good solution to a hypothetical situation.

Well not all houses. A cheap one could be like 50k. But the big ones that look more like guild halls could cost anywhere from 500k-1m. Pure speculation of course, but that's how I'd do it.

idk · September 2016

BigBressler wrote: »

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Giles.floydub17_ESO wrote: »

@BigBressler

Regardless of how the voices in the forums have expressed themselves, it is pure conjecture as to how this will effect the economy. Granted, the forums enjoys speaking on things with little information to base it on.

Additionally, your suggestion to make housing into a huge gold sink to balance out the fears you state some have will essentially make housing unattainable for many in the game by pricing it in such a manner you seem to suggest. Housing would only be for the rich in the world you paint.

Not a very good solution to a hypothetical situation.

Well not all houses. A cheap one could be like 50k. But the big ones that look more like guild halls could cost anywhere from 500k-1m. Pure speculation of course, but that's how I'd do it.

Your also suggesting heavy raiders will go big into housing. Makes sense because the entire thread is based on an assumption.

I for one raid and there is only one aspect of housing that interests me and the 50k model works just fine.

Bobby_V_Rockit · September 2016

Yeah, I sold 65 frost mirriams today for 120k, I only use blue health stam food, so that 65 was accrued for free via the hireling.... And I sold it at 66% market value, other people sell them for 3k ea (180k if I wanted to be greedy), the new owner can now flip the product and make a further 60k on the investment...

NoMoreChillies · September 2016

houses dont really interest me, so all my trials gold is gonna be injected into the economy

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO · September 2016

Bobby_V_Rockit wrote: »

Yeah, I sold 65 frost mirriams today for 120k, I only use blue health stam food, so that 65 was accrued for free via the hireling.... And I sold it at 66% market value, other people sell them for 3k ea (180k if I wanted to be greedy), the new owner can now flip the product and make a further 60k on the investment...

Wtf, they are like 300g on PC.

UltimaJoe777 · September 2016

silvereyes wrote: »

show previous quotes

UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

I think you misunderstood me lol I meant players can choose NOT to raise their prices just because a gold faucet got turned on.

Oh, yeah, I did misunderstand you, but there's still a big problem with your statement. Inflation doesn't happen because sellers "decide" anything. Inflation happens because buyers are willing to spend more, because they have more gold available.

Consider this example.
Spoiler
A player needs to buy 10 columbines to make tri-pots for a raid next week. Say for example that MM average price for columbine is 300 gold each. All the 300 gold columbines are already sold out, because it's the weekend. But a seller has listed 10x columbine on the store for 400 gold each, hoping to catch someone desperate. The player doesn't need the columbines right away, and they are willing to come back and check prices later if they don't find any good prices.

Now say this player has only 3k to spend, but the only thing he needs are columbine. He will almost certainly decide that getting 10 columbine at market price later is much better than getting only 7 now, so he will come back later.

Now say this player has 4k available. He *may* decide to buy the 400 gold columbine despite the high price, to avoid having to go shopping later. He has enough money, so at least it's an option.

By making that purchase, he just moved the MM average up ever so slightly. He also used up the entire supply of 10x columbine for 400 gold ea.

Now say another player comes along with a ton of money and desperately needs columbine right away. Cost is no object, but all the 300 gold columbine and all the 400 gold columbine is gone. The only ones left are 600 gold, listed by some really greedy person. The desperate player buys the extremely overpriced flowers and drives up the MM average a bit more.

Does this make sense how *everybody* having more gold would lead to price inflation, regardless of whether most sellers decide to list mats at market price? Market price has an insidious way of moving up all on its own, just because of changes in buyer behavior.

I doubt Undaunted Plunder will make people want to toss money around because they will make less overall than they did before by selling good BoE items.

Rohamad_Ali · September 2016

silvereyes · September 2016

UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

I doubt Undaunted Plunder will make people want to toss money around because they will make less overall than they did before by selling good BoE items.

Try not to read too much into a simplified fictional example. It's just a description of how buyer behavior *can* change when more gold is in the economy overall. Somebody out there has more gold, whether it's the raider, or the person they bought their mats/potions from, or the people that mat seller bought things from with the extra gold.

In aggregate, some players that have more gold are more likely to purchase items at above market price when they have more gold available, leading to increased prices. This isn't really debatable. It's an economic fact.

The only way to combat this is to take money out of circulation - gold sinks. Which is exactly the OP's point.

Woeler · September 2016

The pots you spend on raiding (if you do it decently) cost more than the undaunted plunder you get.

silvereyes · September 2016

Also, when thinking about buyer psychology, keep in mind that price creep can happen in very small increments. I used an extreme example to illustrate the point, but a more realistic example would be a player choosing to buy a columbine at 5% above market price.

In the example, I talked about needing to buy 10x columbine with a MM price of 300g ea. 5% more woud be 315g each. The amount of extra gold paid would only be 150g.

An extra 150g out of 4k is not exactly throwing money around. It's hardly noticeable. That's why I said inflation can be insidious.

Lexynide · September 2016

UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

I think you misunderstood me lol I meant players can choose NOT to raise their prices just because a gold faucet got turned on.

I assume you believe in communism too, since you're thinking that there's some kind of party ideology that players are going to follow and keep prices just the same.
What kind of choice is that anyway? "You can be a loser with no money or a winner with millions"? You must be new to psychology.

UltimaJoe777 · September 2016

Lexynide wrote: »

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UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

I think you misunderstood me lol I meant players can choose NOT to raise their prices just because a gold faucet got turned on.

I assume you believe in communism too, since you're thinking that there's some kind of party ideology that players are going to follow and keep prices just the same.
What kind of choice is that anyway? "You can be a loser with no money or a winner with millions"? You must be new to psychology.

The way you worded it honestly makes it sound like you'd be first in line to hike prices up given half a chance. Ignoring your choice in words keep in mind I did say "choose" which means they CAN even if they WON'T. Has nothing to do with psychology, it's just how people are. Choices exist, whether logical or not, and that is all I was getting at. Everyone and their mother knows people will try to get as much as they can from selling stuff in this game, just as they jump at the first chance to exploit a glitch or bug. However, consider what is being given here and what others have said, like this quote here:

Woeler wrote: »

The pots you spend on raiding (if you do it decently) cost more than the undaunted plunder you get.

Undaunted Plunder will not live up to what people can make selling BoE items, which means if anything DEflation may occur. Also, the fact it's direct income doesn't automatically mean inflation. Inflation will occur if Undaunted Plunder makes as much or more than selling those goodies people find at present.

silvereyes · September 2016

UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

Undaunted Plunder will not live up to what people can make selling BoE items, which means if anything DEflation may occur.

This right here illustrates a core misunderstanding of what inflation is. Inflation = devaluation of currency due to increased supply of currency. It means lower buying power per unit of currency. Deflation is the opposite: increased currency value and better buying power for each unit of currency.

It's a specific economics term with a specific meaning, and it's being misused here. It completely misses the point if you think it has anything to with your individual return on investment for running trials.

silvereyes · September 2016

The good news is, it looks like Phil Draven at ZOS is at least on top of understanding the issue. So if Undaunted Plunder causes too much inflation, they'll hopefully throw some more gold sinks at the problem:
https://www.reddit.com/r/elderscrollsonline/comments/546mo4/welcome_to_the_one_tamriel_eso_ama/d7zf2uf?context=3

[–]xxSpinnxxAldmeri Dominion 3 points 22 hours ago
Do you guys have any plans to incorporate huge gold sinks into the game? And are you guys always aware of the current state of the economy of the game? Thanks!

[–]ZOS_PhilipDraven 5 points 22 hours ago
We absolutely monitor the in-game economy and make adjustments when necessary. As we add new features to the game, we carefully consider the gold faucets and sinks we're introducing and how they integrate with the rest of the game. Adhazabi Aba-daro the Golden is an example of a sink we've added while Justice fencing is a significant faucet. We also look at how these gold sources stack up against each other, and the limitations associated with them to encourage players to participate in a wide array of systems and content.

Dubhliam · September 2016

I don't think the Undaunted Plunder will have that much of an impact.
Sure, it will impact, but only slightly.

Also, you forgot about Guild Trader bids. Those are the largest gold sinks currently.
Housing should, and probably will be the next best sink.

What I think will be hurting the Econimal much more than plunder is the way overland gear will be available to grind.
Plummeting the prices of sets to scrap, and therefore having an impact on trading fees.
Whoever thought 100% drop chance was a smart idea should get a "Economy 101" participation medal.

UltimaJoe777 · September 2016

silvereyes wrote: »

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UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

Undaunted Plunder will not live up to what people can make selling BoE items, which means if anything DEflation may occur.

This right here illustrates a core misunderstanding of what inflation is. Inflation = devaluation of currency due to increased supply of currency. It means lower buying power per unit of currency. Deflation is the opposite: increased currency value and better buying power for each unit of currency.

It's a specific economics term with a specific meaning, and it's being misused here. It completely misses the point if you think it has anything to with your individual return on investment for running trials.

I could argue your understanding of inflation and deflation as well based on actual definition, but there is no point as it's off topic to this thread and would likely just go back and forth endlessly. Either way, regardless of what happens, I doubt Undaunted Plunder will impact the economy drastically as it is being tested on PTS and ironed out before going live. If anything happens afterward they will adjust the amount of Plunders obtained per run as need be.

silvereyes · September 2016

UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

there is no point as it's off topic to this thread

Agreed. Whether inflation happens or not, the AMA yesterday solidified that they aren't changing Undaunted Plunder. I just hope they are serious about monitoring the new gold faucet they opened up.