Is RNG as Random As We Think?

elvenmad · September 2016

no such thing as truly random 'RNG' in a video game , it is controlled by a program and only does what it is programed to do, which usually means it is heavily manipulated by the programmer, or in this case the publisher.

for it to be truly random the program or computer running it would have to think for itself.

Armitas · September 2016

ZOS, how can you allow anyone in your community to run this dungeon 1 thousand times without reward? How, how do you do that? How can you find that acceptable? How can you allow it to continue? Are you even bothered that people left over it? Can you blame them? Why would anyone that respects the community allow that to continue?

Waseem · September 2016

Replace "insert maelstrom weapon here" with " x item from loot boxes" and you have the future forum threads regarding "RNG"

DMuehlhausen · September 2016

Ch4mpTW wrote: »

I'm just wondering, is RNG as random as we all think it is? I'm starting to notice patterns of sorts in trial-based content and VMA.

For example, I've never received any Vicious Serpent rings when looting 12-man content bosses (everyone I ran with just passed them to me). And in VMA, I've never seen any ice staves or lightning staves. It wasn't until a few couple of months ago (1 or 2 I think), that I received my first destruction staff (nirnhoned inferno). And I know people who are in similar situations or worse.

Like for example, I know some people who've never seen a Maelstrom's Axe or Dagger in the final chest before. Or restoration Staff. And they've done hundreds of runs. In fact, I read here on the forums that there's someone who's on their 800th-something run — but has NEVER seen an inferno staff in that last chest. Surely there's more to it, I'd like to believe. And honestly? I believe there's a pattern.

The pattern, I think lies within our character data. Meaning, each character has its own set of data in regards to drops. And whenever things match-up, a certain drop is given. However! Certain characters have lesser chance to get things, to the point of them completely missing from their loot tables via character data.

That's the only explanation I can see for people having such "bad luck". We have to remember, RNG is something coded. And if something is coded, things can go wrong or have things missing. As a fellow programmer, I make mistakes here and there myself. So what's stopping that from being the case, and having some character values being missing to prevent certain drops from appearing — or appearing too frequently?

Anything made made, or in this case coded, will never be truly 100% random. However it is still randomized. Each item/trait/stat has a percentage. So it's more than possible to hit the same item multiple times in a row. If you know that the exact item you want has like a 3% chance to drop run the dungeon 100 times and I'm guessing it's going to have dropped 2-3 times.

However after 10 runs and never seeing it people start thinking they are being cheated and it can't be totally random.

Ackwalan · September 2016

Computers can't generate a true random number. Whatever program ZOS uses to create a varied reward/result, is abysmal.

FriedEggSandwich · September 2016

Ackwalan wrote: »

Computers can't generate a true random number. Whatever program ZOS uses to create a varied reward/result, is abysmal.

Random doesn't mean varied. You're right that computers can't generate true randomness; people use the motion of atoms for that. But not even that is truly random because in theory the motion of atoms is predictable, it's just not reasonable to expect humans to be able to predict it; too many variables to keep track of. Random number generation algorithms, like on your calculator are as close as we can get to true randomness without using the motion of atoms, and that is random enough for mathmaticians to use, so it's random enough for a computer game loot table.

Ch4mpTW · September 2016

Ackwalan wrote: »

Computers can't generate a true random number. Whatever program ZOS uses to create a varied reward/result, is abysmal.

Agreed, but I'm still curious what exactly the base is that ZOS uses. I'm curious how it works, and how it goes about choosing who gets what and how many of what. Because for there to be so many people who've done 500 or more clears of something (some apparently more than 1,000), and never see a particular item type once? That's a problem. A very big problem.

Also, it sparks up another question in itself within that. If ZOS claimed that before the Shadows of the Hist DLC was launched, that Maelstrom weapons had a 50% drop-rate... And supposedly the majority of the people who did VMA received rings in the last chest, more so than weapons... How long exactly would it have taken for people to get the items that they were searching for? Better yet, how did ZOS not see this glaring issue from the start?

A side note of sorts. If pre-Dark Brotherhood, you had a much larger chance of receiving a sharpened Maelstrom weapon (due to the traits of weapons coming in: Defending, precise, and sharpened), why is it is now when ZOS decides to guarantee us a drop that the loot tables are expanded with other traits? And yes, I'm aware the loot tables were expanded before the Shadows of the Hist DLC. But, why were they left that way? To keep people grinding, and playing the content?

dylanjaygrobbelaarb16_ESO · September 2016

there is no way its rng with 100% equal chance of everything. after spending over 5 million ap on desert rose trying to get ideal weapons and shields i noticed lots of patterns, still not one shield or sharpened or defending weapon.

Ch4mpTW · September 2016

dylanjaygrobbelaarb16_ESO wrote: »

there is no way its rng with 100% equal chance of everything. after spending over 5 million ap on desert rose trying to get ideal weapons and shields i noticed lots of patterns, still not one shield or sharpened or defending weapon.

It's interesting that you brought up shields. I've noticed that shields, along with inferno staves and one-handed swords seem to have a lower drop-rate than other weapon types. And apparently others have noticed this as well (there was a thread about the low drop-rate for shields not too long ago).

Not too long ago when I was still farming NMoL and NSO, I noticed that it was few and far inbetween that anyone would receive a shield of any kind. And this went on for weeks. Not a single person would receive a shield for hundreds of runs. Then maybe 1 person would get 1, and then the group wouldn't see another shield for hundreds of more runs. It's pretty odd, to be honest.

LegendaryArcher · September 2016

Armitas wrote: »

ZOS, how can you allow anyone in your community to run this dungeon 1 thousand times without reward? How, how do you do that? How can you find that acceptable? How can you allow it to continue? Are you even bothered that people left over it? Can you blame them? Why would anyone that respects the community allow that to continue?

Little story on the side:

When Apple released one of their first iPods, people were asking for a "random" function, so it would randomly play songs from different playlists. Well, easy algorithm for Apple, right? Soon after the release (keep in mind, Apple had almost a Billion customers), thousands of customers were contacting Apple because their "random" function wasn't really random. It was playing the same song 5+ times in a row, then another one, then the same again. They started noticing patterns that some songs are played more often than others.
When you take a population of 1 Billion, or even just in the Million area (like in ZOS's case), there will always be some people that experience this. Someone will get 10 Charged Swords in a row. I know someone who got a Sharpened Inferno 3 times in a row on his first 3 completions of vMA (ofc before DB/TG). Fun fact, he quit after not getting his Kena helmet in 300+ vWGT runs (that was before the Cyrodiil vendor, increased drop chances and in-dungeon trades). That lucky *** never came back.

So, what did Apple do?

They made their algorithm less "random." They implemented algorithms that made the system follow an adjusted distribution. Songs that have already been played would have their chance of coming up again greatly reduced (in relation to those that haven't been played yet). So the chance was still there for a song to come up twice in a row, but the chances of that happening were much smaller than they would usually have been if the algorithm was truly random.

@ZOS_RichLambert @ZOS_Finn

Vildebill · September 2016

DRXHarbinger · September 2016

Personofsecrets wrote: »

Why are there almost no Werewolf Hide Shields for sale, but so many Akaviri Dragon Guard Shields?

Why did the drop rate of tons of items suddenly go down in an extreme way during the patch 1.3 to 1.4 transition?

Why do players loot the same Motif page and Agility ring in chest after chest after chest in IC?

BECAUSE LOOT IS NOT TOTALLY RANDOM.

I have one for sale atm on XB EU.

Armitas · September 2016

Anyone remember the story of Dungeons and Dragons online RNG? At least I think it was Dungeons and Dragons. If you remember it repeat it here, I can only remember that the players doubted for months and then they finally realized there was some other factor inside the character messing it up.

Cherryblossom · September 2016

I think the issue is, that it is in fact random. The loot chart is huge and they have given certain traits a higher drop rate i.e. training and prosperous which we all love. But the item is random, which will become much worse when we get all the sets dropping in light, medium and heavy!

ZOS need to invest in the help of a statistician to give the impression of randomness, without the frustration it incurs.

bebynnag · September 2016

i dont know about the math, or the coding that goes into RNG.

but what i do know is that if i am trying to farm a LA set, im more likley to get it on a HA or MA character,
HA on a LA or mA charcter
and MA on a LA or HA charcter

so if i want shiny clothes for a charcter i farm it on a charcter that has zero use for the set and i troll the troll that is rngeebus! mwahhahahahhaha