Hi there,
Wanted to gather some solid data on the drop chances of each of the individual sets and set pieces, so I put together some data from the PTS. There are 1000+ data points for each of the six boxes. You can find
all of the data in this spreadsheet. There are a few significant points to address:
There are a number of missing pieces:
- Pedant of the Arch-Mage did not drop in 1000 boxes.
- Likewise Afflicted Choker and Affliction weapon.
- Likewise Alessian Necklace.
- Likewise Almalexia's Necklace.
- Likewise Beckoning Steel necklace.
- Likewise Locket of Cyrodiil's Crest.
- Did not see Shield of the Crusader.
- Did not see Sentry's Bow.
- Did not see Elf-Bane's weapon.
Additionally, the ESO Wiki has screenshots of the Alessian Order set in Light and Medium, whereas I was only able to obtain it in Heavy.
I feel this really needs to be addressed:
Is it intended that these set pieces do not drop from these boxes? Or is the drop rate so low that even a sample size of 1000 was not enough to encounter one? It does seem strange that so many sets starting with A (or B & C) do not have their relevant necks.
Data breakdown: On each spreadsheet, columns A and B contain the complete breakdown. Columns E through H contain a summary of each piece, the number of times it dropped, and the overall drop chance. Columns J through M clump the data into specific sets, giving a summary of how many total pieces of each set dropped, as well as the total percentage of drops which were from that set.
For sets with varying traits, columns E onwards starting at around row 50 contain the individual set pieces and how many were found in which traits. There's also an overall percentage for each trait per set.
Here are some quick summaries so you don't have to look at all the data. I've also bolded significant pieces of jewellery/rings/other sets that might be of interest.
Data for Medium Offensive boxes- Morag Tong pieces were 16.41% of total drops.
- Morag Tong necks were a 2.14% drop, 26 out of 1213 boxes contained one.
- Daggers of the Morag Tong were a 2.56% drop, 31 out of 1213 boxes contained one.
- Kyne's Kiss pieces were 11.38% of total drops.
- Hawk's Eye pieces were 15.51% of total drops.
- Hawk's Eye rings were 2.23% of total drops, 27 out of 1213 boxes containing one.
- Sentry pieces were 14.5% of total drops (no bow).
- Cyrodiil's Ward pieces were 14.1% of total drops.
- Making up the majority were Vengeance Leech and Eagle Eye weapons and jewellery, 47.4% of total drops.
Only two sets from these boxes gave pieces which came in various traits.
Kyne's Kiss
- 20.29% of set pieces were Divines
- 15.94% were Impenetrable
- 10.14% were Infused.
- 15.94% were Reinforced.
- 21.74% were Well-Fitted.
- 15.94% were Sturdy.
No other traits seen.
Sentry
- 15.34% of set pieces were Divines.
- 16.48% were Impenetrable.
- 21.59% were Infused.
- 14.77% were Reinforced.
- 14.2% were Well-Fitted.
- 17.61% were Sturdy.
No other trait seen.
Data for Light Offensive boxes
Of note is the fact that most of these sets have robe and shirt pieces, so the combined drop rate for chest pieces is higher.
- Cyrodiil's Light pieces were 17.42% of total drops.
- Band of Cyrodiil's light was 1.29%, and Ring of Cyrodiil's light was 1.39%. Combined, they are almost as common as gloves or robes.
- Arch-Mage pieces (minus necklace) were 15.92% of total drops.
- Alteration Mastery was 30% of overall drops.
- Noble Duelist pieces were 14.84% of overall drops.
- Buffer of the Swift, Wrath of the Imperium and Grace of the Ancients collectively made up 33% of total drops.
Only one set from light offensive boxes comes in various traits, Arch-Mage:
- 11.25% pieces were Infused
- 11.88% Reinforced
- 18.75% Divines
- 26.25% Impenetrable
- 15% Sturdy
- 16.88% Well-Fitted
No other traits seen.
Most significant point here is that not one of 1004 boxes (plus around 600 or so more that I didn't record) contained an Arch-Mage neck piece.Data for Heavy Offensive boxes- Elf Bane pieces made up 13.32% of total drops (minus weapon).
- Sergenat pieces made up 13.43%.
- Ravaging pieces made up 13.9%.
- Ravaging Ring made up 1.67%, Choker 1.86% and Band 2.25% of total drops.
- Truth made up 15.66% of total drops.
- Affliction, minus neck & weapon, made up 14.22%.
- Potentates and Deadly Strikes pieces made up 29.49% of total drops.
Of these sets, Elf-Bane and Affliction came in varying traits:
Elf-Bane
- 19.85% Divines
- 14.71% Impenetrable
- 13.97% Infused
- 16.91% Reinforced
- 8.09% Sturdy
- 26.47% Well-Fitted
Affliction
- 17.24% Divines
- 18.62% Impenetrable
- 14.48% Infused
- 16.55% Reinforced
- 17.93% Sturdy
- 15.17% Well-Fitted
Most significance for these boxes is that not one of the 1021 boxes contained an Afflicted Choker.Data for Medium Defensive boxes
Interestingly enough, Shield of the Valiant body pieces were surprisingly rare, with Vengeance Leech and Eagle Eye pieces being the most common.
Here's the data:
- Twin Sister pieces made up 12.59% of total drops.
- Crusader pieces made up 14.36% (shield missing)
- Shadow Walker pieces made up 11.99%.
- Bands of the Shadow Walker (robust) are slightly rarer than Rings of the Shadow Walker (healthy). A larger sample size would likely remove this distinction.
- Barkskin Pieces made up 16.33% of total drops.
- Vengeance Leech and Eagle Eye (repeats from the Offensive medium boxes), combined with Shield of the Valiant pices, made up 44.74% of total drops. Of that, the most common (Vengeance Leech and Eagle Eye) made up 30.97% of total drops.
Crusader was the only set that seemed to drop with differing traits:
- 20.55% of pieces were Divines.
- 16.44% were Impenetrable.
- 15.07% were Infused.
- 18.49% were Reinforced.
- 13.01% were Well-fitted.
- 16.44% were Sturdy.
Data for Light Defensive boxes
As with the light offensive boxes, Desert Rose and Almalexia's Mercy sets come with shirt and robe options, increasing the drop chance for chests for these pieces. No neck piece for Almalexia's Mercy was seen.
Only Grace of the Ancients and Wrath of the Imperium pieces drop from this box. Buffer of the Swift can only be found in Offensive boxes.
- Curse-Eater pieces made up 14.42% of total drops.
- Staff of the Curse Eater was found in 19 of 1019 boxes, with a drop rate of around 1.86%.
- Desert Rose pieces were found 14.32% of the time.
- Almalexia's Mercy pieces were found 14.73% of the time (necklace missing).
- Onslaught pieces were found 13.94% of the time.
- Prayer pieces were found 15.61% of the time.
- Grace of the Ancients and Wrath of the Imperium pieces were found 26.99% of the time.
Both Almalexia's Mercy and Desert Rose sets come in varying traits. Here's the averages:
Desert Rose
- 17.81% of pieces were Divines.
- 11.64% Impenetrable
- 13.01% Infused
- 12.33% Reinforced
- 21.92% Sturdy
- 23.29% Well-fitted
Almalexia's Mercy
- 13.33% Divines
- 12.67% Impenetrable
- 15.33% Infused
- 22% Reinforced
- 26% Sturdy
- 10.67% Well-fitted
No other traits were seen.
Data for Heavy Defensive boxes
More sets with missing necks. Also, Alessian Order only appears to drop in Heavy weight.
- 11.24% of all pieces were from the Juggernaut set (shield not seen).
- 15.02% of pieces were Alessian Order.
- 14.16% were Beckoning Steel (minus neck).
- 11.81% were Durok's Bane.
- 11.52% were Cyrodiil's Crest (minus neck).
- 36.27% were Bastion of the Heartland (new to this box), Potentates & Deadly Strikes (also found in the offensive Heavy boxes).
Three sets drop in varying traits.
Alessian Order
- 20.75% Divines
- 20.13% Impenetrable
- 16.98% Infused
- 16.35% Reinforced
- 14.47% Sturdy
- 11.32% Well-fitted.
Beckoning Steel
- 15.33% Divines
- 12.67% Impenetrable
- 16.67% Infused
- 18.67% Reinforced
- 18.67% Sturdy
- 18% Well-Fitted
Juggernaut
- 16.81% Divines
- 18.49% Impenetrable
- 18.49% Infused
- 21.85% Reinforced
- 11.76% Sturdy
- 12.61% Well-fitted
I'll attempt to keep this post up-to-date. If there are any questions or discrepancies, they are most likely my failures to copy values over properly from the spreadsheet. Spreadsheet calculations should be accurrate and conferred if there's any doubt.
I'll try to update this post with screenshots of each of the set pieces.