s7732425ub17_ESO wrote: »You guys are missing the main reason why this grind exists in the first place:
ZOS does not want it to be easy for a single person to be able to craft everything in the glass motif. They want to promote trading between crafters. Player Bob can craft glass daggers, player Kathy can craft glass robes, player George can craft glass helms, etc. They are forcing us to specialize. So you should not be expecting to be able to craft full glass by yourself within a month's time.
They did the same thing with Nirnhoned. In order to get a full set of Nirnhoned, you pretty much have to get individual pieces crafted by multiple players. They seem to like this approach to crafting (because it is an MMO).
Not as large as your pool, but I collected crafting boxes for this occasion as well and came up with this:
16 Clothier Boxes - 1 Fragment
16 Blackmithing Boxes - 1 Fragment
16 Woodworking Boxes - 1 Fragment
What's more, the fragment usually dropped in the first 1-3 boxes I opened, then nothing. It's almost like the droprate is higher than it seems, but activates some sort of cooldown once one drops.
I have always had a theory, in every game, that there is an invisible cooldown on crits like the Dwemer pages, Perfect Roe and other "special" items like that. ZoS designed crafting writs to be turned in and opened once a day, so you would only be eligible to get a Fragment once a day. Maybe its a superstition, but, it seems to hold true.
I've actually started playing LOTRO again, because if this is the future of ESO then screw that. I don't like pointless grinds.
I've actually started playing LOTRO again, because if this is the future of ESO then screw that. I don't like pointless grinds.
Really? Having finally quit my sub that game after seven years to come to ESO.. and reading the cliff notes of what has not changed, I am surprised. But, I do guess you have like.. 3 expansions to catch up on?
Not as large as your pool, but I collected crafting boxes for this occasion as well and came up with this:
16 Clothier Boxes - 1 Fragment
16 Blackmithing Boxes - 1 Fragment
16 Woodworking Boxes - 1 Fragment
What's more, the fragment usually dropped in the first 1-3 boxes I opened, then nothing. It's almost like the droprate is higher than it seems, but activates some sort of cooldown once one drops.
I have always had a theory, in every game, that there is an invisible cooldown on crits like the Dwemer pages, Perfect Roe and other "special" items like that. ZoS designed crafting writs to be turned in and opened once a day, so you would only be eligible to get a Fragment once a day. Maybe its a superstition, but, it seems to hold true.
Great, people saving undaunted keys and writ boxes so that they can get the new items at launch of the patch, whilst people who have saved up AP are now sitting on millions that are more or less worthless unless you're in deep need of soul gems.
I really don't see the difference between this since the argument for no new items on AP vendors was to prevent players from retrieving desired gear at launch, only difference here being that these writ boxes will translate to gold which will most likely be used to buy the new gear.
I couldn't agree more about the AP situation, I wish the Tel'var system had had a reasonable and non ridiculous way to maybe convert one to the other. The other alternative being open up new item sets within the AP system (It's been a year...). Once again, I agree with you but this post here was specifically being targeted at an obscurely low drop chance on writ boxesI couldn't agree more @Faulgor. Your time frame once again is a very reasonable one, 3 months to complete the entire set of chapters with the chance each time to getting the full volume of them is very reasonable.357 writs without a full copy of the Glass motif??
To get a full copy from 357 writs, you'd have to get at least 140 fragments, which is about a 40% drop rate. No way will they make a rare item that common.
If we assume for a moment that there is no bug with the drop rate and we add mine and Sharmony's data, we get 18 fragments from 405 boxes. That is roughly a 5% drop rate for a single fragment. You'll need ~20 boxes for one fragment, 10 fragments for a full page, and 14 pages for the full motif. That adds up to 2800 boxes, which will take 7.6 years to collect with one writ per day, 2.5 years with 3 writs per day, and so on.
Of course, this is just silly. As mentioned above, 3 months seems like a resonable timeframe.ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »/lurk
Appreciated!
Rune_Relic wrote: »Great, people saving undaunted keys and writ boxes so that they can get the new items at launch of the patch, whilst people who have saved up AP are now sitting on millions that are more or less worthless unless you're in deep need of soul gems.
I really don't see the difference between this since the argument for no new items on AP vendors was to prevent players from retrieving desired gear at launch, only difference here being that these writ boxes will translate to gold which will most likely be used to buy the new gear.
I couldn't agree more about the AP situation, I wish the Tel'var system had had a reasonable and non ridiculous way to maybe convert one to the other. The other alternative being open up new item sets within the AP system (It's been a year...). Once again, I agree with you but this post here was specifically being targeted at an obscurely low drop chance on writ boxesI couldn't agree more @Faulgor. Your time frame once again is a very reasonable one, 3 months to complete the entire set of chapters with the chance each time to getting the full volume of them is very reasonable.357 writs without a full copy of the Glass motif??
To get a full copy from 357 writs, you'd have to get at least 140 fragments, which is about a 40% drop rate. No way will they make a rare item that common.
If we assume for a moment that there is no bug with the drop rate and we add mine and Sharmony's data, we get 18 fragments from 405 boxes. That is roughly a 5% drop rate for a single fragment. You'll need ~20 boxes for one fragment, 10 fragments for a full page, and 14 pages for the full motif. That adds up to 2800 boxes, which will take 7.6 years to collect with one writ per day, 2.5 years with 3 writs per day, and so on.
Of course, this is just silly. As mentioned above, 3 months seems like a resonable timeframe.ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »/lurk
Appreciated!
All of this does not seem to be a drop rate issue randomness ect.
The system everyone seems to want is to limit tha ability of stuff over time.
So just make it time based per account.
Rather than mess around with abstractions.
/shrugs
The ultimate point system pretty much guarantees a minimum...but also allows you to add bonus ultimate too.
I have always had a theory, in every game, that there is an invisible cooldown on crits like the Dwemer pages, Perfect Roe and other "special" items like that. ZoS designed crafting writs to be turned in and opened once a day, so you would only be eligible to get a Fragment once a day. Maybe its a superstition, but, it seems to hold true.
Rune_Relic wrote: »Great, people saving undaunted keys and writ boxes so that they can get the new items at launch of the patch, whilst people who have saved up AP are now sitting on millions that are more or less worthless unless you're in deep need of soul gems.
I really don't see the difference between this since the argument for no new items on AP vendors was to prevent players from retrieving desired gear at launch, only difference here being that these writ boxes will translate to gold which will most likely be used to buy the new gear.
I couldn't agree more about the AP situation, I wish the Tel'var system had had a reasonable and non ridiculous way to maybe convert one to the other. The other alternative being open up new item sets within the AP system (It's been a year...). Once again, I agree with you but this post here was specifically being targeted at an obscurely low drop chance on writ boxesI couldn't agree more @Faulgor. Your time frame once again is a very reasonable one, 3 months to complete the entire set of chapters with the chance each time to getting the full volume of them is very reasonable.357 writs without a full copy of the Glass motif??
To get a full copy from 357 writs, you'd have to get at least 140 fragments, which is about a 40% drop rate. No way will they make a rare item that common.
If we assume for a moment that there is no bug with the drop rate and we add mine and Sharmony's data, we get 18 fragments from 405 boxes. That is roughly a 5% drop rate for a single fragment. You'll need ~20 boxes for one fragment, 10 fragments for a full page, and 14 pages for the full motif. That adds up to 2800 boxes, which will take 7.6 years to collect with one writ per day, 2.5 years with 3 writs per day, and so on.
Of course, this is just silly. As mentioned above, 3 months seems like a resonable timeframe.ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »/lurk
Appreciated!
All of this does not seem to be a drop rate issue randomness ect.
The system everyone seems to want is to limit tha ability of stuff over time.
So just make it time based per account.
Rather than mess around with abstractions.
/shrugs
The ultimate point system pretty much guarantees a minimum...but also allows you to add bonus ultimate too.
Judging by the results there does seem to be inconsistencies in the drop rate, highlighting a) a low drop rate and b) a possible bug within the drop chance in some writ containers of the same level in comparison to others. If you have any data to prove this isn't an issue I'd appreciate seeing it as it would really aid this post or provide an opposite insightMoreover, there's a difference between limiting stuff over time and not being able to receive it for months. For a casual player you will not get glass armor for at least 6 months, that is a minimum, it will most likely be more. Furthermore, there is no indication from any tests that I have run using 7 characters for several months that there are any time based / pattern based chances of a rarer item dropping from a writ container, I don't think this would be the best step but a reasonable solution provided the timer was relatively low. I don't have anyone else providing a data set so I can only base this upon my own observations at this point. Finally as mentioned before, there's a certain level of commitment to doing writs every day, much like daily quests etc. To do this for months and months on end to no avail is not really appropriate to ask players to do.
Rune_Relic wrote: »Rune_Relic wrote: »Great, people saving undaunted keys and writ boxes so that they can get the new items at launch of the patch, whilst people who have saved up AP are now sitting on millions that are more or less worthless unless you're in deep need of soul gems.
I really don't see the difference between this since the argument for no new items on AP vendors was to prevent players from retrieving desired gear at launch, only difference here being that these writ boxes will translate to gold which will most likely be used to buy the new gear.
I couldn't agree more about the AP situation, I wish the Tel'var system had had a reasonable and non ridiculous way to maybe convert one to the other. The other alternative being open up new item sets within the AP system (It's been a year...). Once again, I agree with you but this post here was specifically being targeted at an obscurely low drop chance on writ boxesI couldn't agree more @Faulgor. Your time frame once again is a very reasonable one, 3 months to complete the entire set of chapters with the chance each time to getting the full volume of them is very reasonable.357 writs without a full copy of the Glass motif??
To get a full copy from 357 writs, you'd have to get at least 140 fragments, which is about a 40% drop rate. No way will they make a rare item that common.
If we assume for a moment that there is no bug with the drop rate and we add mine and Sharmony's data, we get 18 fragments from 405 boxes. That is roughly a 5% drop rate for a single fragment. You'll need ~20 boxes for one fragment, 10 fragments for a full page, and 14 pages for the full motif. That adds up to 2800 boxes, which will take 7.6 years to collect with one writ per day, 2.5 years with 3 writs per day, and so on.
Of course, this is just silly. As mentioned above, 3 months seems like a resonable timeframe.ZOS_RichLambert wrote: »/lurk
Appreciated!
All of this does not seem to be a drop rate issue randomness ect.
The system everyone seems to want is to limit tha ability of stuff over time.
So just make it time based per account.
Rather than mess around with abstractions.
/shrugs
The ultimate point system pretty much guarantees a minimum...but also allows you to add bonus ultimate too.
Judging by the results there does seem to be inconsistencies in the drop rate, highlighting a) a low drop rate and b) a possible bug within the drop chance in some writ containers of the same level in comparison to others. If you have any data to prove this isn't an issue I'd appreciate seeing it as it would really aid this post or provide an opposite insightMoreover, there's a difference between limiting stuff over time and not being able to receive it for months. For a casual player you will not get glass armor for at least 6 months, that is a minimum, it will most likely be more. Furthermore, there is no indication from any tests that I have run using 7 characters for several months that there are any time based / pattern based chances of a rarer item dropping from a writ container, I don't think this would be the best step but a reasonable solution provided the timer was relatively low. I don't have anyone else providing a data set so I can only base this upon my own observations at this point. Finally as mentioned before, there's a certain level of commitment to doing writs every day, much like daily quests etc. To do this for months and months on end to no avail is not really appropriate to ask players to do.
You misunderstand me. I dont doubt your work.
I was simply saying the RNG of drop rates shouldn't even be in the calcs as everyone (ZOS/us) is more concerned about the time it takes to acquire items per character at the end of the day.
I know I am struggling to get the concept across
Therefore...make it time based per character to guarantee a minimum.
Append RNG bonus on top.
Like the ultimate system.
Light attack 1/8 seconds guarantees a minimum ult buildup.
But you can use certain skills to get bonus ult on top.
trippingchrissy wrote: »I have always had a theory, in every game, that there is an invisible cooldown on crits like the Dwemer pages, Perfect Roe and other "special" items like that. ZoS designed crafting writs to be turned in and opened once a day, so you would only be eligible to get a Fragment once a day. Maybe its a superstition, but, it seems to hold true.
FWIW, I have 4 vet characters (at varying levels, I play them all) who do crafting writs, and I can tell you that I definitely get multiple fragments of the psijic ambrosia recipe in a day. It doesn't happen often, but it has absolutely happened.