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It's official: crafting improvement is broken.

  • Rosveen
    Rosveen
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    Violynne wrote: »
    Three items at 75% chance of improvement. Odds: 1 in 3 will fail. Result: all three failed.

    1 item at 12.5% chance of improvement: Odds: 1 in 1 will fail. Result: 1 passes.

    :neutral:
    Both of your odds are wrong (should be 1/4 and 7/8). Your sample size is so miniscule it's useless. What are you trying to prove?
    Edited by Rosveen on August 5, 2015 12:26PM
  • TequilaFire
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    Don't forget passives like temper expertise improve your chances.
    I always max those passives out so it takes less tempers at 100%.
  • TheShadowScout
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    I am used to seeing fate screwing with me, odds be damned.
    Sixteen tries to get a 25% chance on something. Done that. Eight tries to get a 85% chance? Done that too. And even the 10% "oh, what the heck" chance which succeeded at the first try, I done that as well.

    Point is, when you are improving something, and thereby risk loosing it, it makes no sense to go for anything less then 100%, juuust in case fate is feeling impish today... and yeah, passives help a lot there. Send your gear over to your crafting character, improve, send back - that's a good part of what the shared bank is for anyways, methinks...
  • JD2013
    JD2013
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    When something doesn't go how someone wants, they always see it as broken.

    It's a percentage chance. Get the passives and use the tannins.
    Sweetrolls for all!

    Christophe Mottierre - Breton Templar with his own whole darn estate! Templar Houses are so 2015. EU DC

    PC Beta Tester January 2014

    Elder of The Black
    Order of Sithis
    The Runners

    @TamrielTraverse - For Tamriel related Twitter shenanigans!
    https://tamrieltraveller.wordpress.com/

    Crafting bag OP! ZOS nerf pls!
  • KerinKor
    KerinKor
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    Violynne wrote: »
    Three items at 75% chance of improvement. Odds: 1 in 3 will fail. Result: all three failed.

    1 item at 12.5% chance of improvement: Odds: 1 in 1 will fail. Result: 1 passes.

    :neutral:
    Only two problems I see here:

    1) you're not a ZOS employee so nothing you post is 'official'

    2) you clearly don't understand statistics which is why what you posted is basically wrong.

    Apart from that there seems nothing left to discuss here.
    Edited by KerinKor on August 5, 2015 11:09AM
  • Marenne
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    75 % of chance mean that if you do it an infinite number of time you got 3/4 of stuff that upgrade but there's always a tiny tiny probality that even if you do it 1000 or even 10000 all the upgrade fails.
    Edited by Marenne on August 5, 2015 11:16AM
  • PoseidonEvil
    PoseidonEvil
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    RNJesus does not like you very well lol
    In-game ID: alchelvly
    Phixeon Maghi -- Breton Healer
    Harrow the Souleater -- Breton Necro Healer
    Krogyle dro-Smoketh -- Orc Stamdk
  • NDwarf
    NDwarf
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    Well to be fair, according to Chaos Theory if you flip a coin you have a 40% chance of heads, 40% chance of tails, and a 10% chance that dinosaurs will run amok killing people. Thank the stars you didn't release dinosaurs with your attempt at crafting.

    SCIENCE!
    "When people !@# with you you !@# with them ten times worse. Next thing you know, you're in a motel room with 24 beers and a half bucket of chicken. You see, that's how you get things done." Ricky, Trailer Park Boys.
  • Merlin13KAGL
    Merlin13KAGL
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    Yeah, that's messed up. I think that the whole "based on luck" aspect of crafting needs to be done away with. I'm not sure what to replace it with though, any ideas?
    It's not based on luck unless you chose it to be.

    I'm gonna build a car. I can use 100% of the right parts and fasteners (bolts, and such), or I can use 75% of the right parts and fasteners, or I can simply use 100% correct parts, but only use 75% of them.

    Which one would you like to take for a drive?

    Just because you don't like the way something is doesn't necessarily make it wrong...

    Earn it.

    IRL'ing for a while for assorted reasons, in forum, and in game.
    I am neither warm, nor fuzzy...
    Probably has checkbox on Customer Service profile that say High Aggro, 99% immunity to BS
  • newtinmpls
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    Yeah, that's messed up. I think that the whole "based on luck" aspect of crafting needs to be done away with. I'm not sure what to replace it with though, any ideas?

    How about using enough materials to make it 100% chance.

    Thats what I do; much less frustrating.
    Tenesi Faryon of Telvanni - Dunmer Sorceress who deliberately sought sacrifice into Cold Harbor to rescue her beloved.
    Hisa Ni Caemaire - Altmer Sorceress, member of the Order Draconis and Adept of the House of Dibella.
    Broken Branch Toothmaul - goblin (for my goblin characters, I use either orsimer or bosmer templates) Templar, member of the Order Draconis and persistently unskilled pickpocket
    Mol gro Durga - Orsimer Socerer/Battlemage who died the first time when the Nibenay Valley chapterhouse of the Order Draconis was destroyed, then went back to Cold Harbor to rescue his second/partner who was still captive. He overestimated his resistance to the hopelessness of Oblivion, about to give up, and looked up to see the golden glow of atherius surrounding a beautiful young woman who extended her hand to him and said "I can help you". He carried Fianna Kingsley out of Cold Harbor on his shoulder. He carried Alvard Stower under one arm. He also irritated the Prophet who had intended the portal for only Mol and Lyris.
    ***
    Order Draconis - well c'mon there has to be some explanation for all those dragon tattoos.
    House of Dibella - If you have ever seen or read "Memoirs of a Geisha" that's just the beginning...
    Nibenay Valley Chapterhouse - Where now stands only desolate ground and a dolmen there once was a thriving community supporting one of the major chapterhouses of the Order Draconis
  • Hope499
    Hope499
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    "It's official: crafting improvement is broken."

    Post should be removed, there is nothing official about this.

    One random player tested 3 items, so its official?

    Is it also official that cats are guide animals, cuz I said so.

    PfWURE9.gif
    Tripped over my friends bra.....
    ....
    ....
    ..she is always setting booby traps!
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