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It's official: crafting improvement is broken.
Violynne
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Three items at 75% chance of improvement. Odds: 1 in 3 will fail. Result: all three failed.
1 item at 12.5% chance of improvement: Odds: 1 in 1 will fail. Result: 1 passes.
1 item at 12.5% chance of improvement: Odds: 1 in 1 will fail. Result: 1 passes.
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phermitgb✭✭✭✭✭sorry, but someone's going to point it out - I don't necessarily disagree that RNG's blow chunks, but...
three items at 75% chance of improvement - 1st 3 out of 100 fail - still 97 to test, of which only 75 need to succeed to be reasonably accurate
1 item at 12.5% chance of improvement : 1st one out of 100 succeeds (congrats btw) - still 99 to test, of which approximately 11 need to succeed (maybe 12) to be reasonably accurate
mind you - I'm personally of the opinion that statisticians are full of crap and that dice (and RNG's) are absolutely sentient and have minds and wills of their own and personally alter the universe just to screw with us...
but, given your sample size...there's still a great deal of room for the odds to play out more or less correctly"There is no correct resolution; It's a test of character."
James T. Kirk12 -
OzJohnD✭✭✭✭sorry, a sample size of 3 proves nothing
come back and complain when you get repeat failures at 100% successEveryone knows the phenomenon of trying to hold your breath underwater - how at first it's alright and you can handle it, and then as it gets closer and closer to the time when you must breathe, how urgent the need becomes, the lust and the hunger to breathe. And then the panic sets in when you begin to think that you won't be able to breathe - and finally, when you take in air and the anxiety subsides...that's what it's like to be a vampire and need blood.
Francis Ford Coppola - BS Dracula: The Film and the Legend4 -
Akavir_Sentinel✭✭✭✭✭
✭It's foolish to use anything but 100% tempers when improving an item.
Having said that, a 75% chance does not guarantee that 3 out of 4 will succeed. It's a 75% chance per attempt. You could try and fail 100 times in a row, but your chance of improvement is still 75%.
Use 100% tempers and you will never have this problem.9 -
Azurephoenix999✭✭✭✭✭Yeah, that's messed up. I think that the whole "based on luck" aspect of crafting needs to be done away with. I'm not sure what to replace it with though, any ideas?Guildmaster of Spectral Liberty - Xbox One - European Megaserver0 -
OzJohnD✭✭✭✭Azurephoenix999 wrote: »Yeah, that's messed up. I think that the whole "based on luck" aspect of crafting needs to be done away with. I'm not sure what to replace it with though, any ideas?
no, the RNG is to give you the chance to use less materials if you want to take the risk. The crafting system is not broken at all.
don't complain if the risk makes you lose
Everyone knows the phenomenon of trying to hold your breath underwater - how at first it's alright and you can handle it, and then as it gets closer and closer to the time when you must breathe, how urgent the need becomes, the lust and the hunger to breathe. And then the panic sets in when you begin to think that you won't be able to breathe - and finally, when you take in air and the anxiety subsides...that's what it's like to be a vampire and need blood.
Francis Ford Coppola - BS Dracula: The Film and the Legend7 -
tmacdec✭✭That's not the way percentages work. Each individual attempt is at 75% not a guarantee that 3 out 4 will work. Think of flipping a coin, while its a 50% chance it will land heads it can come up tails every time.1 -
OzJohnD✭✭✭✭That's not the way percentages work. Each individual attempt is at 75% not a guarantee that 3 out 4 will work. Think of flipping a coin, while its a 50% chance it will land heads it can come up tails every time.
actually its not 50%
http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/69400/calculating-the-probability-of-a-coin-falling-on-its-side
Everyone knows the phenomenon of trying to hold your breath underwater - how at first it's alright and you can handle it, and then as it gets closer and closer to the time when you must breathe, how urgent the need becomes, the lust and the hunger to breathe. And then the panic sets in when you begin to think that you won't be able to breathe - and finally, when you take in air and the anxiety subsides...that's what it's like to be a vampire and need blood.
Francis Ford Coppola - BS Dracula: The Film and the Legend0 -
Violynne✭✭✭✭✭
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I don't disagree. That's just what happened to me today. Over the span of many levels, I can't tell you how many times the higher percentages have failed compared to the lower chances.sorry, a sample size of 3 proves nothing
I should point out: this isn't a complaint.
I just find it rather comical percentages don't mean a thing when it's sheer luck of the randomized number.
You've had failures at 100%? I have to admit, I've never seen this happen.
@Akavir_Sentinel
You are correct: it is a per-item chance, but the odds are still in favor that, of those per item chances, it's still a 1 in 4 chance of failure. Since a failed attempt doesn't get 3 more chances, then that's the "luck of the draw", so to speak.
However, my observation tells me that if the item hadn't been destroyed, and I repeated the attempt, another failure would have occurred.
This has happened to me often, which is why I find it funny. It reminds me of Fallout 3 having 100 in Speech skill and fail the attempt.
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Pangnirtung✭✭✭✭✭Three items at 75% chance of improvement. Odds: 1 in 3 will fail. Result: all three failed.
1 item at 12.5% chance of improvement: Odds: 1 in 1 will fail. Result: 1 passes.
Known mathematical fact. Odds are 1 in four does NOT mean you are guaranteed 1 pull out of four tries.
Over the long haul it evens out but short sample sizes mean nothing.2 -
Acrolas✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭75% just means taking 100 pieces of paper, writing YES on 75 of them and NO on 25, randomizing them in a container, and picking one. Replace the result, randomize, then repeat for each attempt.
Same with 12.5, although you'd round down to 12 YES pieces.
Ratios are misleading, because each event is independent. You may notice a pattern, but for every attempt, it's pulling out a random result from a box of X desirable results and Y undesirable ones. Problem is, usually you'll never know what X and Y are.signing off1 -
OzJohnD✭✭✭✭No, fortunately in ESO I have not experienced a failure at 100% tempering ... however I know that in some games a character skill that appears to have a 100% success rate can fail due to a hidden modifier.
The other problem is that it is rare to get true randomisation of a computer generated random number. The more complex the coding the closer it gets to true random but complexity adds to the response time, and as impatient as we tend to be these days milliseconds count in terms of gamer satisfaction.Everyone knows the phenomenon of trying to hold your breath underwater - how at first it's alright and you can handle it, and then as it gets closer and closer to the time when you must breathe, how urgent the need becomes, the lust and the hunger to breathe. And then the panic sets in when you begin to think that you won't be able to breathe - and finally, when you take in air and the anxiety subsides...that's what it's like to be a vampire and need blood.
Francis Ford Coppola - BS Dracula: The Film and the Legend0 -
zachary4828✭✭I flipped a coin twice today and guess what? Heads both times! I've always been told a coin toss is a 50/50 chance, that means that if I flip it twice it will be tails once and heads once. So guess what "educated" people... YOU'VE BEEN PROVEN WRONG SCIENTIFICALLY!0
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ontheleftcoast✭✭✭✭✭The chance of all three failing is small, about 1.6% but that's twice the percentage of pulling a Perfect Roe. On the other hand the chance for all three working is over 42%. You paid your money and took your chances. Probably should've filleted some fish -- it would've been less costly.
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Azurephoenix999 wrote: »Yeah, that's messed up. I think that the whole "based on luck" aspect of crafting needs to be done away with. I'm not sure what to replace it with though, any ideas?
We need sarcasm tags... I'm sure there are those that missed that you were referring to the ability to use more tempers, and the passive that allows you to get a higher chance out of less tempers, to attain a 100% chance (thereby negating the RNG component). I did at first, then I remembered... sarcasm.
Edited by panemetcircenses on August 5, 2015 2:42AM0 -
xaraan✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Why are you improving stuff at less than a 100% chance anyway? It's really not worth it, better to just wait and get all the mats you need.-- @xaraan --
nightblade: Xaraan • templar: Xaraan-dar • dragon-knight: Xaraanosaurus • necromancer: Xaraan-qa • warden: Xaraanodon • sorcerer: Xaraan-ra
AD • NA • PC1 -
DXCortEX✭✭Probabilities, whats that? 1 in 3 means i HAVE to get one every three times. What's up with those abherations of getting two in a row or losing each after 6 times? This is NOT how the universe works.
/s0 -
Kammakazi✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭After reading this, I went to go improve two staves that I've created... 90%, both failed.
I'm done lmaooooooo0 -
danno8✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Azurephoenix999 wrote: »Yeah, that's messed up. I think that the whole "based on luck" aspect of crafting needs to be done away with. I'm not sure what to replace it with though, any ideas?
You can use 100% tempers and BOOM, RNG is done away with.
unless you are being sarcasticEdited by danno8 on August 5, 2015 3:14AM0 -
Qyrk✭✭✭✭✭
✭OP probably is number-impaired. He doesn't know how probability is a result of adequate sample size.
Edit: he's probably not smart enough to know that probability percentages is independent of previous results .Edited by Qyrk on August 5, 2015 3:45AM0 -
After reading this, I went to go improve two staves that I've created... 90%, both failed.
I'm done lmaooooooo
That's the down side of gambling. The plus side is that there are probably nine players out there that did the same thing and had both items improve with no issues. Think of it this way: if you have a 10% crit chance, does that mean you can only crit once every 10 swings? Same thing applies here: even with a 10% chance of failure, it is entirely possible to fail twice consecutively. That's why I usually just use more tempers... it's safer.
You should stop questioning the RNG, for it is mighty, and it knows that for its favored to achieve 100% a special few must be blessed with 0%... thereby appeasing the DevGods' request for a 90% probability.
Edited by panemetcircenses on August 5, 2015 3:54AM0 -
starkerealm✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Azurephoenix999 wrote: »Yeah, that's messed up. I think that the whole "based on luck" aspect of crafting needs to be done away with. I'm not sure what to replace it with though, any ideas?
Using enough materials to avoid it entirely, comes to mind.
Look, there's only a luck based element to upgrading if you want there to be one. If you don't, use enough materials, and go on with your day.0 -
Moonshadow66✭✭✭✭✭
✭I always improve items with a 100% chance; with this, you can't miss.
And what's buying/using one or a few more improvement materials compared to losing all you invested including the item itself? Go for 100%
Venus Ocean - Breton Sorceress VR16, EP, Tamriel Hero | Gixia - Breton Sorceress VR16, EP, Tamriel Hero
Frances Demnevanni - Breton Dragonknight VR16, EP, Tamriel Hero | Raygee - Breton Nightblade VR16, EP, Tamriel Hero
Lady Olivieri - Breton Nightblade VR16, EP, Tamriel Hero | Donna Demnevanni - Breton Templar VR16, DC, Tamriel Hero
Elaine Benes - Breton Templar VR16, EP | Ray McCluck - Breton Sorcerer VR16, EP
Moonshadow Demnevanni - Dunmer Dragonknight Lvl 50, EP | Jamie Stacey - Redguard Templar Lvl 50, EP
Caia Cosades - Imperial Nightblade, EP0 -
JamilaRaj✭✭✭✭✭
✭Azurephoenix999 wrote: »Yeah, that's messed up. I think that the whole "based on luck" aspect of crafting needs to be done away with. I'm not sure what to replace it with though, any ideas?
Perhaps there could be some item in the crown store that would improve gear with 100% chance of success. However, the current mechanics should be kept in place as an alternative for the lesser people to upgrade their gear. If they had any at all.0 -
I make sure its 100% chance all the time for those who are maxed in blacksmithing (like myself) you know it takes
2 honing stones
3 dwarven oil
4 grain solvant
8 legendary alloy stuff
I think that its quite a fair cost ^^1 -
Alucardo✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Why would you chance on luck when the option for 100% is there? Unfortunately if you want to be cheap, there's a risk involved.0 -
F7sus4✭✭✭✭✭
✭Yeah, I guess we're all special and this is why we fail 87,5% of the times while having 87,5% chance to succeed. 0 -
DerNase✭Three items at 75% chance of improvement. Odds: 1 in 3 will fail. Result: all three failed.
1 item at 12.5% chance of improvement: Odds: 1 in 1 will fail. Result: 1 passes.
You probably mean: 1in 4 will fail
Besides that, 75% improvement rate per attempt.. so theoretically, if you try 1.000 times, it is possible to fail all the 1.000 times
Sand is overrated. It's just tiny, little rocks.1 -
PBpsy✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭The probability of 3 fail out of 3 trials for a success/fail event that has a 75% probability of success is 1.56% -Small but quite significant.
The probability of 3 successes out of 3 trials for a success/fail event that has a 75% probability of success is 42.2%. Lower than most would expect.
Binomial Distribution FTFW
Edited by PBpsy on August 5, 2015 8:13AMESO forums achievementsProud fanboiElitist jerkTrollHaterFan of icontested(rainbow colors granted)0
