oddsmaker wrote: »

I have a hunch the drop rate on the recipe fragments is right around 10% on a max-level writ. If that's the case, then about 20% of you guys will have to wait until your 15th writ OR LATER to get your first drop, and the unluckiest 4% of you guys will have to wait until your 30th writ or later to get your first drop...

I'm ok with being in the 20%, but being in the 4% would suuuuuck!

UrQuan wrote: »

oddsmaker wrote: »

Merlin13KAGL wrote: »

oddsmaker wrote: »

I have a hunch the drop rate on the recipe fragments is right around 10% on a max-level writ. If that's the case, then about 20% of you guys will have to wait until your 15th writ OR LATER to get your first drop, and the unluckiest 4% of you guys will have to wait until your 30th writ or later to get your first drop...

You missed a couple days of math class, I'm guessin'?

Actually I teach it, so allow me to school you. If each writ has a 10% chance of dropping a frag, then each writ has a 90% chance of not dropping a frag. The probability that you get your first frag on the 15th writ or later is the probability that the first 14 writs do not drop a frag. Assuming they are using a RNG, this is 0.9^14 = .229. So, about 20% (being slightly pessimistic) of people will experience this phenomenon.

While I'm glad you're up to speed on binomial distribution, you may still want to back up a page or two.

While the numbers based on your hunch are fine, the odds of getting a fragment as your recipe for the day, vs any other recipe (we won't even include the no-recipe-at-all scenario...it'll just make the numbers worse yet) give you this:

486 or so recipes prior to the addition of these fragments.

Add the seven fragments, the total goes to 493.

On any given writ (again, discounting the no recipe situation), you have 7 in 493 chance of getting a fragment.

That works out to be ~ .2% (that's 2/10th's of a percent) on a given writ.

I'm not a teacher, nor do I play one on TV, but last I checked 0.002 << .10.

To be fair, your math is fine. It's your assumption that's flawed.

Granted, this assumes equal chance for any recipe to drop. Given the nature and purpose behind this item, I'd be quite surprised if the drop rate for these are as good as or better than the drop rate for turnip casserole.

Call it a hunch.

And here, I think you dropped your mic...

Merlin13KAGL wrote: »

UrQuan wrote: »

oddsmaker wrote: »

Merlin13KAGL wrote: »

oddsmaker wrote: »

I have a hunch the drop rate on the recipe fragments is right around 10% on a max-level writ. If that's the case, then about 20% of you guys will have to wait until your 15th writ OR LATER to get your first drop, and the unluckiest 4% of you guys will have to wait until your 30th writ or later to get your first drop...

You missed a couple days of math class, I'm guessin'?

Actually I teach it, so allow me to school you. If each writ has a 10% chance of dropping a frag, then each writ has a 90% chance of not dropping a frag. The probability that you get your first frag on the 15th writ or later is the probability that the first 14 writs do not drop a frag. Assuming they are using a RNG, this is 0.9^14 = .229. So, about 20% (being slightly pessimistic) of people will experience this phenomenon.

While I'm glad you're up to speed on binomial distribution, you may still want to back up a page or two.

While the numbers based on your hunch are fine, the odds of getting a fragment as your recipe for the day, vs any other recipe (we won't even include the no-recipe-at-all scenario...it'll just make the numbers worse yet) give you this:

486 or so recipes prior to the addition of these fragments.

Add the seven fragments, the total goes to 493.

On any given writ (again, discounting the no recipe situation), you have 7 in 493 chance of getting a fragment.

That works out to be ~ .2% (that's 2/10th's of a percent) on a given writ.

I'm not a teacher, nor do I play one on TV, but last I checked 0.002 << .10.

To be fair, your math is fine. It's your assumption that's flawed.

Granted, this assumes equal chance for any recipe to drop. Given the nature and purpose behind this item, I'd be quite surprised if the drop rate for these are as good as or better than the drop rate for turnip casserole.

Call it a hunch.

And here, I think you dropped your mic...

Psst: you quoted me and it appears you're addressing me, but none of that math was mine... It was @oddsmaker - I just posted the mic drop.

Having said that, your assumptions are very definitely flawed.

First, there is no chance of a provisioning writ not rewarding you with a recipe. I have literally done hundreds of provisioning writs on multiple characters at multiple skill levels and numbers of skill points in the passives since writs were introduced, and ever single time I have received a recipe.

Second, the pool of recipes you can get on any given writ is not equal to the entire pool of recipes - it only includes recipes of the same provisioning rank as the writ you are turning in. If you are turning in a rank VI writ then the pool of recipes you can get as a writ reward is the pool of rank VI recipes.

Third, none of that matters. When you receive a recipe fragment from a writ it is not in place of a regular recipe. It is in addition to a regular recipe. Or at least all of the fragments I've received have been in addition to receiving a regular recipe for that writ.

So the math is much simpler than you make it out to be, because every assumption you have made in the post I quoted is wrong.

All of these theories and all of this math. Makes me think about people betting in roulette. Random is random. If the drop rate for these fragments is random, then guess what....it is random.

whyB wrote: »

All of these theories and all of this math. Makes me think about people betting in roulette. Random is random. If the drop rate for these fragments is random, then guess what....it is random.

Nobody said it wasn't random.

Something seems fishy with this. Between a total of 4 accounts I've been tracking one has gotten 2 fragments one was doing rank4 the other rank5 writs. That account has 0 doing rank 6. Another has 2 doing rank and the rest doing rank 4 or 5 and has gotten 0 doing 8x however many days it's been since it came out. Another has one doing rank 6 that finally got one. That account was also doing 8 a day all rank3 or higher. The 4th account is mostly lower rank3 writs and has gotten 0. So of the 4 accounts it's 2, 0, 1, 0. And if it's true that higher lvl writs in creases the chances it seems very suspicious that the account that should have by far the best chance is still at 0. There no way I believe that there isn't some other factor either accidental or intentional skewing things.