Subject matter experts what am I doing wrong obtaining the Psijic Ambrosia seven part recipe?

NeoXanthus

I have a crafting character that's sole purpose is to make everything for the rest of my characters. This crafter is level VR14 and level 50 in every crafting art. When the Psijic Ambrosia was announced via patch notes on June 15 every single day I have completed a provisioner crafting writ, plus I have level 3 hireling and so far I have not received a single page of the Psijic Ambrosia Recipe. Recipe quality is rank 4 and improvement passive is rank 6.

I am well aware of grinds in this game and I am one of the few people that got all 15 pages of Dwemer before it was purchasable in the crown store. I see people advertising Psijic Ambrosia in game so I know people are making it so this means I am doing something wrong in my collection process please help me understand what I am doing incorrect, you masterful subject matter experts.

Rook_Master

The solution is clearly to:

1. Buy the potion in the Crown Store.

daemonios

I have 8 characters doing provisioning writs every day since the new recipe was introduced and have 6 out of 7 parts. To be honest it's not that horrible a drop rate. And remember that people who already have the full recipe typically bought some party's from others, have multiple characters and sometimes multiple accounts.

P3ZZL3

Market rates right now are bubbling around the 8k gold in EU PC.

NadiusMaximus

Oops. Misunderstood. It's hard to get though, seems randomized more than normal.

MissBizz

daemonios wrote: »

I have 8 characters doing provisioning writs every day since the new recipe was introduced and have 6 out of 7 parts. To be honest it's not that horrible a drop rate. And remember that people who already have the full recipe typically bought some party's from others, have multiple characters and sometimes multiple accounts.

Lucky you. Well, you have have 8 toons going... I had 2 at the beginning and by the third day I had a 3rd toon doing max level writs. I have found one (wait, maybe 2.. pretty sure it's only one though)

[UPDATE] Turns out I only had 1 when I posted yesterday.. but did get another piece last night. So my total is now two.

AlnilamE

I have 7 characters doing the writs daily and have not yet gotten a recipe fragment.

It happens. Sometimes the RNG hates you. Sometimes it doesn't.

The rate doesn't seem too horrible considering how many people have them/have them for sale.

Our day will come!

But the fragments don't come from Hirelings. Only from writs.

Robbmrp

NeoXanthus wrote: »

I have a crafting character that's sole purpose is to make everything for the rest of my characters. This crafter is level VR14 and level 50 in every crafting art. When the Psijic Ambrosia was announced via patch notes on June 15 every single day I have completed a provisioner crafting writ, plus I have level 3 hireling and so far I have not received a single page of the Psijic Ambrosia Recipe. Recipe quality is rank 4 and improvement passive is rank 6.

I am well aware of grinds in this game and I am one of the few people that got all 15 pages of Dwemer before it was purchasable in the crown store. I see people advertising Psijic Ambrosia in game so I know people are making it so this means I am doing something wrong in my collection process please help me understand what I am doing incorrect, you masterful subject matter experts.

Yeah, it's just bad RNG that you have as I have it at as well. My wifes gotten two of the pages so far and we both do the same writs every day. Like you I still haven't received one page of it.

EgoRush

Some people are luckier than others :P I think only 1 person in our guild has completed it thanks to the rest of us contributing pages as we acquired them. Keep doing the provisioning writs as routine and they will drop for you eventually in theory. The higher the provisioning rank the better the chance for them to drop if I remember right - though you're fully leveled so this shouldn't be a problem.

ThatNeonZebraAgain

daemonios wrote: »

I have 8 characters doing provisioning writs every day since the new recipe was introduced and have 6 out of 7 parts. To be honest it's not that horrible a drop rate. And remember that people who already have the full recipe typically bought some party's from others, have multiple characters and sometimes multiple accounts.

Do the writs have to be done in Craglorn for them to have a chance to drop the fragment, or does any level of writ have the same chance to drop it?

Flaminir

ThatNeonZebraAgain wrote: »

daemonios wrote: »

I have 8 characters doing provisioning writs every day since the new recipe was introduced and have 6 out of 7 parts. To be honest it's not that horrible a drop rate. And remember that people who already have the full recipe typically bought some party's from others, have multiple characters and sometimes multiple accounts.

Do the writs have to be done in Craglorn for them to have a chance to drop the fragment, or does any level of writ have the same chance to drop it?

Higher level writs have a higher chance to drop the fragments.

That being said... I'm at 42 top level writs now & 0 fragments!

Rosveen

People who can craft Ambrosia either bought the pages from other players or received them from guildmates as the guild's designated provisioners. You'd need several accounts AND insane luck to gather them on your own so quickly.

Phinix1

AlnilamE wrote: »

I have 7 characters doing the writs daily and have not yet gotten a recipe fragment.

It happens. Sometimes the RNG hates you. Sometimes it doesn't.

The rate doesn't seem too horrible considering how many people have them/have them for sale.

Our day will come!

But the fragments don't come from Hirelings. Only from writs.

I think ZOS stealth-patched the drop rates to oblivion.

I too have 7 max-level provisioners. In the first two days I had one fragment drop. Then, in 28 turn-ins, I had zero drops.

28 max-level writs and zero fragments seems like an insane rate. That would mean someone with only one provisioner could go an entire MONTH without a single fragment, or 7 MONTHS or more to complete the recipe.

daemonios

ThatNeonZebraAgain wrote: »

daemonios wrote: »

I have 8 characters doing provisioning writs every day since the new recipe was introduced and have 6 out of 7 parts. To be honest it's not that horrible a drop rate. And remember that people who already have the full recipe typically bought some party's from others, have multiple characters and sometimes multiple accounts.

Do the writs have to be done in Craglorn for them to have a chance to drop the fragment, or does any level of writ have the same chance to drop it?

I don't know, but 6 of my characters are VR1+ and doing writs in Craglorn. The other 2 are doing them in Alik'r (DC faction). I can't remember if I've ever gotten a recipe part from one of the "lowbies".

ThatNeonZebraAgain

AlienDiplomat wrote: »

AlnilamE wrote: »

I have 7 characters doing the writs daily and have not yet gotten a recipe fragment.

It happens. Sometimes the RNG hates you. Sometimes it doesn't.

The rate doesn't seem too horrible considering how many people have them/have them for sale.

Our day will come!

But the fragments don't come from Hirelings. Only from writs.

I think ZOS stealth-patched the drop rates to oblivion.

I too have 7 max-level provisioners. In the first two days I had one fragment drop. Then, in 28 turn-ins, I had zero drops.

28 max-level writs and zero fragments seems like an insane rate. That would mean someone with only one provisioner could go an entire MONTH without a single fragment, or 7 MONTHS or more to complete the recipe.

I've had the opposite experience. I only have a single char capable of doing writs in Craglorn, and I didn't get any fragments for the first week and a half (doing 1 writ per day). Then yesterday and today I got fragments.

dennissomb16_ESO

3 characters maxed doing the writs everyday not a single scrap let alone the actual recipe. Small guild also doing the writs daily not 1 member has received even a scrap. I have no issue with items like this being hard to get but this seems a bit much. I get the approach was to have a lot of players buy from the crown store ( I hope players are actually) but unfortunately the real winners were those players who needed it least. the 40+ hour a week crowd who have 8 level 14s and a ton of gold who simply purchased the scraps. Not really a "catch up" mechanism when the benefactors are those that are already significantly ahead.


PS. I have no issue with those who play the most having the most. It should be that way, but an xp catch up mechanism should be just that

Shadesofkin

Rook_Master wrote: »

The solution is clearly to:

1. Buy the potion in the Crown Store.

To be fair it's a scroll.

UrQuan

Yeah, I've had 8 provisioners doing the writ since the patch (well, not on the first day when I was having bad crashing issues - I only did a few writs that day), 6 of them doing max-level writs, and 2 of them doing rank IV writs (because although they are both Provisioning 50 with 6/6 in the passive, they aren't VR yet so rank IV is the highest they can get), and I'm up to 4 fragments.

So it's just RNG. There's a thread over in the crafting section on the drop rate for fragments, and when you look at it overall it's not that bad. It's low, but not as low as I expected it to be anyway. Naturally there will always be some people with terrible luck, and some people with really good luck.

Cuyler

4 max provisioners, 3 fragments over the past 4 days

daemonios

AlienDiplomat wrote: »

AlnilamE wrote: »

I have 7 characters doing the writs daily and have not yet gotten a recipe fragment.

It happens. Sometimes the RNG hates you. Sometimes it doesn't.

The rate doesn't seem too horrible considering how many people have them/have them for sale.

Our day will come!

But the fragments don't come from Hirelings. Only from writs.

I think ZOS stealth-patched the drop rates to oblivion.

I too have 7 max-level provisioners. In the first two days I had one fragment drop. Then, in 28 turn-ins, I had zero drops.

28 max-level writs and zero fragments seems like an insane rate. That would mean someone with only one provisioner could go an entire MONTH without a single fragment, or 7 MONTHS or more to complete the recipe.

Even if they did stealth-nerf it (which I doubt) judging by guild store prices the recipe parts are only about as rare as Imperial Motifs. I've seen prices as low as 120k in the past few days. Many things sold for far more in the early days (some purple recipes were on sale for 350k+ during the first few months). Prices will only go down with more people completing their recipes and/or flooding the stores with duplicates.

GamerzElite

I am level 50 provisioner from a long time and do writ everyday after fragments introduced, still no fragments for me. I am curious what I am doing wrong?

Knaxia

It's just the poor RNG, nothing we can do about it.

Been doing them since they were out on 1 character, started doing them with a 2nd a few days ago. Still nothing.

Then someday, we will get a a bunch out of nowhere then dead again for weeks.

Tors

Ive got 7 characters cabable of doing the daily writ to hand in at Craglorn.

Ive been lucky, found 2 myself day 1 and a page a day to sell every day since.


Found one on a lowbie level 6 on the first day so he cant hand in the higher level writts.


Considering the item is yellow, I feel its a bit easy to get!!

Its harder to get the tempers needed to make a metal legendary than it is to get this recipy (by doing writts alone)

crowfl56

I have 2 provisioner's and do writs everyday, no frag's and it will be years before I get all 7 with the luck I have, sucks.

oddsmaker

I have a hunch the drop rate on the recipe fragments is right around 10% on a max-level writ. If that's the case, then about 20% of you guys will have to wait until your 15th writ OR LATER to get your first drop, and the unluckiest 4% of you guys will have to wait until your 30th writ or later to get your first drop...

Merlin13KAGL

oddsmaker wrote: »

I have a hunch the drop rate on the recipe fragments is right around 10% on a max-level writ. If that's the case, then about 20% of you guys will have to wait until your 15th writ OR LATER to get your first drop, and the unluckiest 4% of you guys will have to wait until your 30th writ or later to get your first drop...

You missed a couple days of math class, I'm guessin'?

oddsmaker

Merlin13KAGL wrote: »

oddsmaker wrote: »

I have a hunch the drop rate on the recipe fragments is right around 10% on a max-level writ. If that's the case, then about 20% of you guys will have to wait until your 15th writ OR LATER to get your first drop, and the unluckiest 4% of you guys will have to wait until your 30th writ or later to get your first drop...

You missed a couple days of math class, I'm guessin'?

Actually I teach it, so allow me to school you. If each writ has a 10% chance of dropping a frag, then each writ has a 90% chance of not dropping a frag. The probability that you get your first frag on the 15th writ or later is the probability that the first 14 writs do not drop a frag. Assuming they are using a RNG, this is 0.9^14 = .229. So, about 20% (being slightly pessimistic) of people will experience this phenomenon.

Grapdjan

oddsmaker wrote: »

Merlin13KAGL wrote: »

oddsmaker wrote: »

I have a hunch the drop rate on the recipe fragments is right around 10% on a max-level writ. If that's the case, then about 20% of you guys will have to wait until your 15th writ OR LATER to get your first drop, and the unluckiest 4% of you guys will have to wait until your 30th writ or later to get your first drop...

You missed a couple days of math class, I'm guessin'?

Actually I teach it, so allow me to school you. If each writ has a 10% chance of dropping a frag, then each writ has a 90% chance of not dropping a frag. The probability that you get your first frag on the 15th writ or later is the probability that the first 14 writs do not drop a frag. Assuming they are using a RNG, this is 0.9^14 = .229. So, about 20% (being slightly pessimistic) of people will experience this phenomenon.

So brilliant, even if it is't true which I'd never know.

UrQuan

oddsmaker wrote: »

Merlin13KAGL wrote: »

oddsmaker wrote: »

I have a hunch the drop rate on the recipe fragments is right around 10% on a max-level writ. If that's the case, then about 20% of you guys will have to wait until your 15th writ OR LATER to get your first drop, and the unluckiest 4% of you guys will have to wait until your 30th writ or later to get your first drop...

You missed a couple days of math class, I'm guessin'?

Actually I teach it, so allow me to school you. If each writ has a 10% chance of dropping a frag, then each writ has a 90% chance of not dropping a frag. The probability that you get your first frag on the 15th writ or later is the probability that the first 14 writs do not drop a frag. Assuming they are using a RNG, this is 0.9^14 = .229. So, about 20% (being slightly pessimistic) of people will experience this phenomenon.

DaveMoeDee

NadiusMaximus wrote: »

Oops. Misunderstood. It's hard to get though, seems randomized more than normal.

Random is random.

The problem with random is there will be outliers at both ends, some who end up with a bunch of good stuff, and some who end up with lumps of coal.

DaveMoeDee

crowfl56 wrote: »

I have 2 provisioner's and do writs everyday, no frag's and it will be years before I get all 7 with the luck I have, sucks.

The wonderful part about random numbers is that each writ is an independent event and your past results have no bearing on future outcomes.