1.2 Million Subscribers

Neizir · October 2014

SuperData Research has released figures for revenue of the Online Games market, including a top 10 list. ESO was at 11, and made $111m throughout 2014, not including box sales.
http://venturebeat.com/2014/10/23/the-10-highest-grossing-online-pc-games-in-2014-hearthstone-dota-2-cant-compete-with-league-of-legends/
I found this on Reddit:

First, ZOS is a privately held company and doesn't have to release jack to to anyone. But having said that, these numbers are really nothing but good news.

So, according to these people, ESO made $111,000,000 in six months essentially. There are a bunch of questions with this number - the largest of which is "does this include box sales as well?". But ignore that, cause we're all speculating anyways, and double that number to annualize it to $222,000,000. This method yields 1.2 million subs per month. ($222m/$15/12 months)

Let's look at it a different way. WoW made $728,000,000 with 7.4 million subs. ESO is either around 15% (1.1/7.4) or 30% (2.2/7.4) the revenue of WOW. Meaning ESO has 1.1 to 2.2 million subs as of today.

Either way you slice it, these numbers mean
A: Nothing (see the first paragraph) and
B: ESO has over one million subs.

I know MMOs and Single Player games are different audiences but did you know that Skyrim sales were 86% console? These numbers can only go up.

What do you think of this figure, folks? Personally I think 1.2m might be an overestimation, but fairly accurate.

Audigy · October 2014

I think that MMOs today gain a lot money from the cash shops, I read that WOW has a higher cash shop income than League of Legends and this is a free to play game.

With ESO a lot of the money sure also comes from the shop, there are a couple of things that people don't mind spending money on

So you can not just translate their income to subs

Neizir · October 2014

Audigy wrote: »

I think that MMOs today gain a lot money from the cash shops, I read that WOW has a higher cash shop income than League of Legends and this is a free to play game.

With ESO a lot of the money sure also comes from the shop, there are a couple of things that people don't mind spending money on

So you can not just translate their income to subs

There pretty much isn't anything in ESO's store. There is absolutely no way an in-game horse could have made that much money.

ers101284b14_ESO · October 2014

Although the numbers would be good and would be great for the future of the game I don't trust super data. They are unreliable, claimed that only 130,000 copies of ESO where sold and is not a reputable source.

I hope it's true but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Neizir · October 2014

ers101284b14_ESO wrote: »

Although the numbers would be good and would be great for the future of the game I don't trust super data. They are unreliable, claimed that only 130,000 copies of ESO where sold and is not a reputable source.

I hope it's true but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

@ers101284b14_ESO Where did they claim that?

ers101284b14_ESO · October 2014

Neizir wrote: »

ers101284b14_ESO wrote: »

Although the numbers would be good and would be great for the future of the game I don't trust super data. They are unreliable, claimed that only 130,000 copies of ESO where sold and is not a reputable source.

I hope it's true but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

@ers101284b14_ESO Where did they claim that?

It was one of their original sales reports

Or maybe it was VG chartz.
Now I can't remember

Elsonso · October 2014

You can work with the number that they gave of $111 million but you have to use that number. Without looking at the data and assumptions, you cannot use it to extrapolate subscriptions or annual numbers.

I will say that 1.2 million subscriptions does not match my estimates, but then I don't have any estimates, so that is probably why.

KenjiJU · October 2014

I'm not too worried. I think the TES fanbase is a bit more durable in terms of sticking around. That along with the future big updates to add longevity and replayability (Undaunted, Champion, Spellcrafting, new areas).

Nazon_Katts · October 2014

If that figure is correct, it does include box sales. Which I believe to have been rather high and taking up at least half, probably more of that sum. Which brings us back into the 700k ballpark at best, that was floating around earlier. I still don't trust their numbers, tho.

Nox_Aeterna · October 2014

ers101284b14_ESO wrote: »

Although the numbers would be good and would be great for the future of the game I don't trust super data. They are unreliable, claimed that only 130,000 copies of ESO where sold and is not a reputable source.

I hope it's true but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Pretty much , there is no reason to trust anything they say lols.

Yes , zen is a private company that doesnt have to release the numbers and since only zen got the right numbers we cant really be sure.

Still i keep my first opinion on this , if the numbers were actually good , they would say it.

Elsonso · October 2014

I disbelieve the whole article.

Without paying $2000 for the actual report, I say that the article is just a sales pitch for the company.

Edit: To be clear, it is the article that I distrust, not the company. I know that the report goes into far more detail than the article and the article does not make it clear that the same type of numbers are being referenced. They could have mixed numbers from different categories. We cannot tell from the article whether the $111 million number for ESO is all revenue, including subscriptions, or just "in-game" purchases. We don't know what in-game purchases might include. Are we talking $111 million in guar plushies? Does that include the Explorer Pack and Imperial edition, but not the base game purchases? Does it include the base game when distributed electronically and therefore only subscription revenue is missing? The article seems to tell just enough information, but not too much.

ers101284b14_ESO · October 2014

Nox_Aeterna wrote: »

ers101284b14_ESO wrote: »

Although the numbers would be good and would be great for the future of the game I don't trust super data. They are unreliable, claimed that only 130,000 copies of ESO where sold and is not a reputable source.

I hope it's true but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Pretty much , there is no reason to trust anything they say lols.

Yes , zen is a private company that doesnt have to release the numbers and since only zen got the right numbers we cant really be sure.

Still i keep my first opinion on this , if the numbers were actually good , they would say it.

Not really they could smudge it like every other MMO. Heck ff14 said 2 million registered accounts and people took that as subscriber numbers (it's not)

Lord_Draevan · October 2014

As I said when the figures were estimated at 750,000 subscribers a few months ago...
"People who dislike the game will say 'This is proof the game is failing'.
People who like the game will say 'This is proof the game is doing well'.

Moral of the story: no matter what proof is presented, both sides will view it according to their opinion.
And the arguing will continue :P"

Elsonso · October 2014

Nox_Aeterna wrote: »

ers101284b14_ESO wrote: »

Although the numbers would be good and would be great for the future of the game I don't trust super data. They are unreliable, claimed that only 130,000 copies of ESO where sold and is not a reputable source.

I hope it's true but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Pretty much , there is no reason to trust anything they say lols.

Yes , zen is a private company that doesnt have to release the numbers and since only zen got the right numbers we cant really be sure.

Still i keep my first opinion on this , if the numbers were actually good , they would say it.

I disagree. There is a strong reason to never say, no matter what the number is. As we can see from Blizzard, releasing numbers is a mistake that will come back to bite. No matter what the number is, it will be used against them at some date in the future.

Nox_Aeterna · October 2014

ers101284b14_ESO wrote: »

Nox_Aeterna wrote: »

ers101284b14_ESO wrote: »

Although the numbers would be good and would be great for the future of the game I don't trust super data. They are unreliable, claimed that only 130,000 copies of ESO where sold and is not a reputable source.

I hope it's true but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Pretty much , there is no reason to trust anything they say lols.

Yes , zen is a private company that doesnt have to release the numbers and since only zen got the right numbers we cant really be sure.

Still i keep my first opinion on this , if the numbers were actually good , they would say it.

Not really they could smudge it like every other MMO. Heck ff14 said 2 million registered accounts and people took that as subscriber numbers (it's not)

Well yes , the point is , they can use "smart" words , but zen itself wouldnt directly lie... probably :P.

So if they gave out numbers , it would give us some ideas , even if it is not exactly the amount of current active subs

spoqster · October 2014

Thanks for the note.

ers101284b14_ESO · October 2014

Nox_Aeterna wrote: »

ers101284b14_ESO wrote: »

Nox_Aeterna wrote: »

ers101284b14_ESO wrote: »

Although the numbers would be good and would be great for the future of the game I don't trust super data. They are unreliable, claimed that only 130,000 copies of ESO where sold and is not a reputable source.

I hope it's true but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Pretty much , there is no reason to trust anything they say lols.

Yes , zen is a private company that doesnt have to release the numbers and since only zen got the right numbers we cant really be sure.

Still i keep my first opinion on this , if the numbers were actually good , they would say it.

Not really they could smudge it like every other MMO. Heck ff14 said 2 million registered accounts and people took that as subscriber numbers (it's not)

Well yes , the point is , they can use "smart" words , but zen itself wouldnt directly lie... probably :P.

So if they gave out numbers , it would give us some ideas , even if it is not exactly the amount of current active subs

I see no positive coming from it and they probably don't either. All I know is I'm having fun and I see people in every zone. I never see duplicate names and I don't have to wait long on a pug. The game does feel fuller than it did in May. But anyway time for walking dead then some more ESO

Vatter · October 2014

I call BS. guild after guild that I am in are becoming ghost towns. This seems like a marketing ploy to get more people subbed.
They might have gotten a large return on their investment when they launched because of the name but people have seen how bad this game is and quit long ago.
This game has become an industry cautionary tale on what not to do.

crislevin · October 2014

Well, it's kinda big deal to know if it includes box sales, each one is 60! Your number will shrink to about 60% if it include box.

ers101284b14_ESO · October 2014

crislevin wrote: »

Well, it's kinda big deal to know if it includes box sales, each one is 60! Your number will shrink to about 60% if it include box.

Actually I just re read it and it says in game sales only not subscriptions or box sales. Meaning it would be people who, upgraded to imperial or bought a horse. Not sure if that means people who bought it online through ZOS

Elsonso · October 2014

ers101284b14_ESO wrote: »

All I know is I'm having fun and I see people in every zone. I never see duplicate names

I will agree. I have seen thousands of characters running around, mostly in EP. I see duplicate names, but not as many as people might think.

kevlarto_ESO · October 2014

I am in huge guild that has 4 chapters here in ESO three of them full, they gain new members from time to time, not all guilds have went running back their old games or where ever they think the grass is greener.

But on the other hand this SuperData people are not ZOS, I have to take anything they say with a grain of salt, might be dead on might be way off, no one knows but ZOS.

Tabbycat · October 2014

Whether it's box sales or subs or whatever, it's still a pretty good chunk of change for ZOS.

Elf_Boy · October 2014

Audigy wrote: »

I think that MMOs today gain a lot money from the cash shops, I read that WOW has a higher cash shop income than League of Legends and this is a free to play game.

With ESO a lot of the money sure also comes from the shop, there are a couple of things that people don't mind spending money on

So you can not just translate their income to subs

That reminds me I need a new wallet. Saw a nice one on the ESO Store.

wafcatb14_ESO · October 2014

Hard to say really we had 1300 members at launch , now we are down to 265 members that are still playing eso , the rest went back to GW2 they are still in the guild , just not playing this game .

Lord_Kreegan · October 2014

Ludicrous.

First off, Zenimax has shareholders; they just aren't a publicly TRADED company. People continue to presume they have some kind of magic wand [Restoration Staff?] as a "private company". They don't.

Second, they had a horrible [premature] launch after a poorly run Beta test and a lot of bad press resulted from that. Early start was a disaster for many people and there was even more bad press from that. Any time a new game is released with those sorts of problems and that kind of bad press, it takes a long time to recover. So, fanboi pronouncements of high rates of subscription will, at best, be met with scepticism and will most likely be horribly laughed at by anyone with half a brain.

Enjoy the game for what it is. Let ZOS fix its warts over time (it still has plenty). But ridiculous prognostications like this accomplish nothing at all, so save them for when you're singing in the shower (or wherever you do your fantasizing).

yiasemi · October 2014

Lord_Kreegan wrote: »

Ludicrous.

, so save them for when you're singing in the shower (or wherever you do your fantasizing).

Too much personal information!!

Neizir · October 2014

To all commenting about fake numbers:

SuperData says that they collect numbers from developers, publishers and payment service providers active in the space. Their about page features testimonials from CCP, Harmonix and Microsoft, and The New York Times, The Washington Post, BusinessWeek and Business Insider among others consider them to be reliable enough to use their data or to give them airtime. I'd trust the word of Superdata tbh.

mutharex · October 2014

ers101284b14_ESO wrote: »

Neizir wrote: »

ers101284b14_ESO wrote: »

Although the numbers would be good and would be great for the future of the game I don't trust super data. They are unreliable, claimed that only 130,000 copies of ESO where sold and is not a reputable source.

I hope it's true but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

@ers101284b14_ESO Where did they claim that?

It was one of their original sales reports

Or maybe it was VG chartz.
Now I can't remember

It was VGChartz and they only track retail boxes

mutharex · October 2014

Lord_Kreegan wrote: »

Ludicrous.

First off, Zenimax has shareholders; they just aren't a publicly TRADED company. People continue to presume they have some kind of magic wand [Restoration Staff?] as a "private company". They don't.

Second, they had a horrible [premature] launch after a poorly run Beta test and a lot of bad press resulted from that. Early start was a disaster for many people and there was even more bad press from that. Any time a new game is released with those sorts of problems and that kind of bad press, it takes a long time to recover. So, fanboi pronouncements of high rates of subscription will, at best, be met with scepticism and will most likely be horribly laughed at by anyone with half a brain.

Enjoy the game for what it is. Let ZOS fix its warts over time (it still has plenty). But ridiculous prognostications like this accomplish nothing at all, so save them for when you're singing in the shower (or wherever you do your fantasizing).

Add some fiber to your diet, bran flakes are great!

Loneshard · October 2014

Neizir wrote: »

I know MMOs and Single Player games are different audiences but did you know that Skyrim sales were 86% console? These numbers can only go up.

That is absolutely correct!