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Nirncrux drop rates (Details on Nirncrux inside)
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smeeprocketnub19_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
✭Each harvest has a .25% of dropping the stone, independent on previous harvest.
^^^^^This guys get it!;
You can harvest 4 and get 4, or harvest 4 and get nothing. What surprise me is the inability of people to understand this. Not because you harvest 4,000 nodes, you are going to get 400 stones....each attempt is .25% for EACH node, independent of any other node or harvest you have done previously.
I'm fully aware of how statistics work, but assuming the numbers are true, you do get within the margin of error.
As was explained to me by a previous poster, the smallest margin of error comes from 4k+ harvests but the margin is still too big for a positive check of the numbers.
I'm not entirely uneducated.Dear Sister, I do not spread rumors, I create them.0 -
starkerealm✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Each harvest has a .25% of dropping the stone, independent on previous harvest.
^^^^^This guys get it!;
You can harvest 4 and get 4, or harvest 4 and get nothing. What surprise me is the inability of people to understand this. Not because you harvest 4,000 nodes, you are going to get 400 stones....each attempt is .25% for EACH node, independent of any other node or harvest you have done previously.
It's called The Gambler's Fallacy, if I remember correctly.
You're trying to roll 1:400 each time. In theory, with a large enough population that should average out to about that. In practice, it can go either way and you could just never see any of the stones.0 -
It can't be THAT bad...I have gotten 7 of them in 8 hours of harvesting....NO WAY am I harvesting, what, 2800 or so nodes in that time. I suspect .25% is false, unless I am the luckiest man alive for Nirncrux.
I also got 10 of them in about 8 hours of harvesting. Then again I got suspended from the game immediately after for 24 hours until the let me play again. Apparently if you are too lucky you get banned. Since getting back in I have harvested for about 5 hours and not 1 drop.1 -
smeeprocketnub19_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
✭dave_ESO12 wrote: »It can't be THAT bad...I have gotten 7 of them in 8 hours of harvesting....NO WAY am I harvesting, what, 2800 or so nodes in that time. I suspect .25% is false, unless I am the luckiest man alive for Nirncrux.
I also got 10 of them in about 8 hours of harvesting. Then again I got suspended from the game immediately after for 24 hours until the let me play again. Apparently if you are too lucky you get banned. Since getting back in I have harvested for about 5 hours and not 1 drop.
Wow... ZOS really loves banning people lolDear Sister, I do not spread rumors, I create them.0 -
Luvsfuzzybunnies✭✭✭smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »There are people capable of farming 4000 nodes for a piece of crafting material ...? Scary ...
And some capable of farming 10000 ? I wont even comment ...
They probably meant that they gathered 4,000 to 10,000 items. Each node gives 2 to 4 items each.
I also harvest Upper Craglorn, and there just aren't that many nodes. 4,000 items is 40 stacks and 10,000 items is 100 stacks. Not possible unless you never stopped harvesting 24/7 since the patch came out,
no they meant nodes, item gathered would be irrelevant. I can't prove they did just that however. But I can't prove anything technically without video evidence or some other form of hard data
As I said above, 10,000 nodes is 200 to 400 stacks of resources. Not possible for a single player to do given the timeframe.
what are you going by with regards to time per node? Sometimes several nodes will be right next to each other.
There aren't that many ore, cloth, and wood nodes in Upper Craglorn. There is also competition from other players for these same nodes. I farm Craglorn a lot for resources and I know how many stacks I can get and how long it takes.
There is no way a single player harvested 10,000 nodes since the patch hit.
Forget that there is possibly more than one instance of upper craglorn on.the megaserver when figuring there is competition for the nodes and they could not possibly have been in one that was empty.Jukette VR12 DC Nightblade 14 day campaign.
Kitten Kisser VR12 DC Sorcerer 14 day campaign1 -
starkerealm✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »dave_ESO12 wrote: »It can't be THAT bad...I have gotten 7 of them in 8 hours of harvesting....NO WAY am I harvesting, what, 2800 or so nodes in that time. I suspect .25% is false, unless I am the luckiest man alive for Nirncrux.
I also got 10 of them in about 8 hours of harvesting. Then again I got suspended from the game immediately after for 24 hours until the let me play again. Apparently if you are too lucky you get banned. Since getting back in I have harvested for about 5 hours and not 1 drop.
Wow... ZOS really loves banning people lol
Well, eight straight hours of farming without the assistance of external tools would certainly have my respect, on the topic of just sheer dedication if nothing else... and, then, they banned him. I think I can guess why.1 -
smeeprocketnub19_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
✭starkerealm wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »dave_ESO12 wrote: »It can't be THAT bad...I have gotten 7 of them in 8 hours of harvesting....NO WAY am I harvesting, what, 2800 or so nodes in that time. I suspect .25% is false, unless I am the luckiest man alive for Nirncrux.
I also got 10 of them in about 8 hours of harvesting. Then again I got suspended from the game immediately after for 24 hours until the let me play again. Apparently if you are too lucky you get banned. Since getting back in I have harvested for about 5 hours and not 1 drop.
Wow... ZOS really loves banning people lol
Well, eight straight hours of farming without the assistance of external tools would certainly have my respect, on the topic of just sheer dedication if nothing else... and, then, they banned him. I think I can guess why.
Some people do that though.
I think ZOS underestimates peoples' obsessiveness.Dear Sister, I do not spread rumors, I create them.1 -
AlexDougherty✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »Each harvest has a .25% of dropping the stone, independent on previous harvest.
^^^^^This guys get it!;
You can harvest 4 and get 4, or harvest 4 and get nothing. What surprise me is the inability of people to understand this. Not because you harvest 4,000 nodes, you are going to get 400 stones....each attempt is .25% for EACH node, independent of any other node or harvest you have done previously.
I'm fully aware of how statistics work, but assuming the numbers are true, you do get within the margin of error.
As was explained to me by a previous poster, the smallest margin of error comes from 4k+ harvests but the margin is still too big for a positive check of the numbers.
I'm not entirely uneducated.
Actually we haven't played long enough for margin of error to be accurate.
With a one in four hundred (1:400) chance you would need to be harvesting somewhere in the region of eighty thousand (80,000) attempts before the statistics would start to average out.People believe what they either want to be true or what they are afraid is true!
Wizard's first rule
Passion rules reason
Wizard's third rule
Mind what people Do, not what they say, for actions betray a lie.
Wizard's fifth rule
Willfully turning aside from the truth is treason to one's self
Wizard's tenth rule1 -
starkerealm wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »dave_ESO12 wrote: »It can't be THAT bad...I have gotten 7 of them in 8 hours of harvesting....NO WAY am I harvesting, what, 2800 or so nodes in that time. I suspect .25% is false, unless I am the luckiest man alive for Nirncrux.
I also got 10 of them in about 8 hours of harvesting. Then again I got suspended from the game immediately after for 24 hours until the let me play again. Apparently if you are too lucky you get banned. Since getting back in I have harvested for about 5 hours and not 1 drop.
Wow... ZOS really loves banning people lol
Well, eight straight hours of farming without the assistance of external tools would certainly have my respect, on the topic of just sheer dedication if nothing else... and, then, they banned him. I think I can guess why.
I wasn't 8 straight hours, it was 8 hours across 2 days. Way to jump to conclusions....1 -
smeeprocketnub19_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
✭AlexDougherty wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »Each harvest has a .25% of dropping the stone, independent on previous harvest.
^^^^^This guys get it!;
You can harvest 4 and get 4, or harvest 4 and get nothing. What surprise me is the inability of people to understand this. Not because you harvest 4,000 nodes, you are going to get 400 stones....each attempt is .25% for EACH node, independent of any other node or harvest you have done previously.
I'm fully aware of how statistics work, but assuming the numbers are true, you do get within the margin of error.
As was explained to me by a previous poster, the smallest margin of error comes from 4k+ harvests but the margin is still too big for a positive check of the numbers.
I'm not entirely uneducated.
Actually we haven't played long enough for margin of error to be accurate.
With a one in four hundred (1:400) chance you would need to be harvesting somewhere in the region of eighty thousand (80,000) attempts before the statistics would start to average out.
That's not according to a previous poster. You guys can battle to the death over statistics though.
Or maybe his point was that the margin of error never gets small enough with that rate for those numbers to improbable.Dear Sister, I do not spread rumors, I create them.0 -
hammer_fella✭✭✭
Like I said, anything that drops hide will yield nirncrux as well.I got mine off a mudcrab... No joke..Aldmeri Dominion (NA)
Ferawen - VR14 Bosmer Nightblade
Quvalwe - VR2 Altmer Sorcerer
Daggerfall Covenant
Belwurz gro-Yungash - Lvl 35 Orc Dragonknight
Ebonheart Pact
Dutseiwitsei - Lvl 27 Argonian Templar0 -
smeeprocketnub19_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
✭Okay here are some more things I have learned.
As of right now, don't pay more than 20k per stone or 5k for someone to craft you an item with that stone.
The price dropped from 50k for an item and 40k for a stone so it's plummeting at the rate it is going.
The only way to get a weapon or armor item with the trait that is not player made is a random reward from doing ALL the craglorn quests in upper, you might need to do lower too if a previous poster is correct.Dear Sister, I do not spread rumors, I create them.0 -
smeeprocketnub19_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
✭Someone is saying hirelings also provide the stone but I'd need more evidence of that.Dear Sister, I do not spread rumors, I create them.0 -
AlexDougherty✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »AlexDougherty wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »Each harvest has a .25% of dropping the stone, independent on previous harvest.
^^^^^This guys get it!;
You can harvest 4 and get 4, or harvest 4 and get nothing. What surprise me is the inability of people to understand this. Not because you harvest 4,000 nodes, you are going to get 400 stones....each attempt is .25% for EACH node, independent of any other node or harvest you have done previously.
I'm fully aware of how statistics work, but assuming the numbers are true, you do get within the margin of error.
As was explained to me by a previous poster, the smallest margin of error comes from 4k+ harvests but the margin is still too big for a positive check of the numbers.
I'm not entirely uneducated.
Actually we haven't played long enough for margin of error to be accurate.
With a one in four hundred (1:400) chance you would need to be harvesting somewhere in the region of eighty thousand (80,000) attempts before the statistics would start to average out.
That's not according to a previous poster. You guys can battle to the death over statistics though.
Or maybe his point was that the margin of error never gets small enough with that rate for those numbers to improbable.
The latter, which is why I suggested a larger number.People believe what they either want to be true or what they are afraid is true!
Wizard's first rule
Passion rules reason
Wizard's third rule
Mind what people Do, not what they say, for actions betray a lie.
Wizard's fifth rule
Willfully turning aside from the truth is treason to one's self
Wizard's tenth rule0 -
smeeprocketnub19_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
✭AlexDougherty wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »AlexDougherty wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »Each harvest has a .25% of dropping the stone, independent on previous harvest.
^^^^^This guys get it!;
You can harvest 4 and get 4, or harvest 4 and get nothing. What surprise me is the inability of people to understand this. Not because you harvest 4,000 nodes, you are going to get 400 stones....each attempt is .25% for EACH node, independent of any other node or harvest you have done previously.
I'm fully aware of how statistics work, but assuming the numbers are true, you do get within the margin of error.
As was explained to me by a previous poster, the smallest margin of error comes from 4k+ harvests but the margin is still too big for a positive check of the numbers.
I'm not entirely uneducated.
Actually we haven't played long enough for margin of error to be accurate.
With a one in four hundred (1:400) chance you would need to be harvesting somewhere in the region of eighty thousand (80,000) attempts before the statistics would start to average out.
That's not according to a previous poster. You guys can battle to the death over statistics though.
Or maybe his point was that the margin of error never gets small enough with that rate for those numbers to improbable.
The latter, which is why I suggested a larger number.
Well I think we can definitely go with not having a good enough sample size, as well as the problem with how someone could have harvested at the sheer numbers I was given.
Any info on the new stones would be helpful here, though. Since I decided to update with what I learn.Dear Sister, I do not spread rumors, I create them.0 -
killedbyping✭✭✭✭Drop rates are stupid. Nuff said.
Youd dont make an item which require 30 days to research a once per 30 days chance to drop...
Literaly, who even thought that this is a good idia to mix long term research with a 0% chance to drop ?
If you take into account that items with Nirnhorned trait ARE NOT IN THE LOOT TABLE AT ALL ! You can only get them from main quest which give random item or from other players, that makes the thing completely redicelous. You spend 30 days to gather items which require 30 days to research them ...
You wont even get the half of them untill the 10th trait will come out (and it WILL come out pretty soon just like 9 and 10 trait craft stations).
So... ok mb the thingy with Nirnhorned items droped just once per LIFE is not the worse thing ever. It make game more social (once again it FORCE you not encourage you to communicate with other players to get the items you need) but Nirncrux stones drop rates just make it completely redicilous.
Why in the world should i spent 99% of my game time farming that useless crap stones ?
10% drop chance would be more then enought to make people busy untill next update.
You may say anything about numbers and how 1-3 people expirience is not the data BUT.
I literaly spent 4 days (and i mean it, i literaly played more then 8 hours per day) to grind delves, world mobs, nodes, Dragonstar arena and this what i can say out of my expirience:
Items with Nirnhorned trait ARE NOT IN THE LOOT TABLE.
The only way to get it is to complete main quest (good thing, that Upper CRAPlorn main quest are completely solo able unlike Lower CRAPlorn main quest). You wont get any Nirnhorned items from any other source than the quest or other players.
There nearly 0% chance to get stones from material Nodes.
Yet again, you may say what ever you want about RNG, but im not 12 year old kid who can spend 99% of his life for farming useless pixels like MOST of ESO fans.
You trying to make game easier, but you do it in wrong terms ..Edited by killedbyping on September 21, 2014 9:43PM1 -
killedbyping✭✭✭✭dave_ESO12 wrote: »It can't be THAT bad...I have gotten 7 of them in 8 hours of harvesting....NO WAY am I harvesting, what, 2800 or so nodes in that time. I suspect .25% is false, unless I am the luckiest man alive for Nirncrux.
I also got 10 of them in about 8 hours of harvesting. Then again I got suspended from the game immediately after for 24 hours until the let me play again. Apparently if you are too lucky you get banned. Since getting back in I have harvested for about 5 hours and not 1 drop.
What king of bullcrap is that ? How can you even be able to harvest so many nodes in 8 hours ?
Sound like complete bullcrap for me.0 -
Maotti✭✭✭✭✭
✭starkerealm wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »dave_ESO12 wrote: »It can't be THAT bad...I have gotten 7 of them in 8 hours of harvesting....NO WAY am I harvesting, what, 2800 or so nodes in that time. I suspect .25% is false, unless I am the luckiest man alive for Nirncrux.
I also got 10 of them in about 8 hours of harvesting. Then again I got suspended from the game immediately after for 24 hours until the let me play again. Apparently if you are too lucky you get banned. Since getting back in I have harvested for about 5 hours and not 1 drop.
Wow... ZOS really loves banning people lol
Well, eight straight hours of farming without the assistance of external tools would certainly have my respect, on the topic of just sheer dedication if nothing else... and, then, they banned him. I think I can guess why.
This is something i do regularly, not for 8 hours mind you, but i've done it for 4 hours once. Extremely boring but so worth it.
And another thing crossed my mind, can these nodes be cherrypicked? Like taking only the traitstone and leaving the ore? Maybe that's what's happening.PC EU0 -
ThisOnePosts✭✭✭✭✭Of course the drop rate is independent for each node harvested. However, regardless... STATISTICALLY SPEAKING if the drop rate is 0.25% then for the most part people should still average more than they are getting. I mean to the guy who harvested 4,500 nodes and got nothing.. LOL. That shouldn't happen, even though there's always a very very very slight chance but it seems that slight chances outweigh supposed average chances in this case. This isn't the only thing I've seen/heard this with btw, it could just be how their RNG system calculates.Edited by ThisOnePosts on September 21, 2014 10:09PM2 -
Natjur✭✭✭✭✭
✭I have got 6 and farmed under 200 nodes.
Random at 0.25% is still random.Edited by Natjur on September 21, 2014 11:14PM0 -
dharbert✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭I just got 1 in less than 30 minutes of farming. I got it from an ore node. Apparently there are no special requirements in order to be able to get the Nirncrux trait stone. I haven't done any Craglorn quests and I'm not even close to being high enough level to even be in Upper Craglorn.0 -
starkerealm✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭dave_ESO12 wrote: »starkerealm wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »dave_ESO12 wrote: »It can't be THAT bad...I have gotten 7 of them in 8 hours of harvesting....NO WAY am I harvesting, what, 2800 or so nodes in that time. I suspect .25% is false, unless I am the luckiest man alive for Nirncrux.
I also got 10 of them in about 8 hours of harvesting. Then again I got suspended from the game immediately after for 24 hours until the let me play again. Apparently if you are too lucky you get banned. Since getting back in I have harvested for about 5 hours and not 1 drop.
Wow... ZOS really loves banning people lol
Well, eight straight hours of farming without the assistance of external tools would certainly have my respect, on the topic of just sheer dedication if nothing else... and, then, they banned him. I think I can guess why.
I wasn't 8 straight hours, it was 8 hours across 2 days. Way to jump to conclusions....
Yeah, no, it sounded like 8 hours in a burst, not spread out over days. Mybad.0 -
starkerealm✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »AlexDougherty wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »AlexDougherty wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »Each harvest has a .25% of dropping the stone, independent on previous harvest.
^^^^^This guys get it!;
You can harvest 4 and get 4, or harvest 4 and get nothing. What surprise me is the inability of people to understand this. Not because you harvest 4,000 nodes, you are going to get 400 stones....each attempt is .25% for EACH node, independent of any other node or harvest you have done previously.
I'm fully aware of how statistics work, but assuming the numbers are true, you do get within the margin of error.
As was explained to me by a previous poster, the smallest margin of error comes from 4k+ harvests but the margin is still too big for a positive check of the numbers.
I'm not entirely uneducated.
Actually we haven't played long enough for margin of error to be accurate.
With a one in four hundred (1:400) chance you would need to be harvesting somewhere in the region of eighty thousand (80,000) attempts before the statistics would start to average out.
That's not according to a previous poster. You guys can battle to the death over statistics though.
Or maybe his point was that the margin of error never gets small enough with that rate for those numbers to improbable.
The latter, which is why I suggested a larger number.
Well I think we can definitely go with not having a good enough sample size, as well as the problem with how someone could have harvested at the sheer numbers I was given.
Any info on the new stones would be helpful here, though. Since I decided to update with what I learn.
Alex is talking about increasing the population until the margin for error is small enough. It's a little like adjusting your camera by stepping forward or back, but, in this case it's also probably the only way to get the job done if we actually want to verify the numbers.0 -
killedbyping✭✭✭✭s7732425ub17_ESO wrote: »Why all the worry about useless traits?
First of all it is not useless at all.
Nirnhorned weapons gonna be one of the most demanded in PVP and Spell resist armors are very usefull for those who wanna to Trials with Medium armor.
Secondly, 9 and 10 Trait set stations are coming with update 5 or 6.Edited by killedbyping on September 22, 2014 6:31AM1 -
AlexDougherty✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭killedbyping wrote: »dave_ESO12 wrote: »It can't be THAT bad...I have gotten 7 of them in 8 hours of harvesting....NO WAY am I harvesting, what, 2800 or so nodes in that time. I suspect .25% is false, unless I am the luckiest man alive for Nirncrux.
I also got 10 of them in about 8 hours of harvesting. Then again I got suspended from the game immediately after for 24 hours until the let me play again. Apparently if you are too lucky you get banned. Since getting back in I have harvested for about 5 hours and not 1 drop.
What king of bullcrap is that ? How can you even be able to harvest so many nodes in 8 hours ?
Sound like complete bullcrap for me.
It's a random chance, every node has the possibility off dropping it, so ten is not that hard to believe, it might be ridiculous amount of luck, but it is believable.People believe what they either want to be true or what they are afraid is true!
Wizard's first rule
Passion rules reason
Wizard's third rule
Mind what people Do, not what they say, for actions betray a lie.
Wizard's fifth rule
Willfully turning aside from the truth is treason to one's self
Wizard's tenth rule0 -
AlexDougherty✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭s7732425ub17_ESO wrote: »Why all the worry about useless traits?
You might want to see what the Nirnhoned traits actually are.People believe what they either want to be true or what they are afraid is true!
Wizard's first rule
Passion rules reason
Wizard's third rule
Mind what people Do, not what they say, for actions betray a lie.
Wizard's fifth rule
Willfully turning aside from the truth is treason to one's self
Wizard's tenth rule1 -
Rittings✭✭✭✭✭
✭And I've farmed about 6000 nodes and gotten 4. RNG. A sample size of 2 people is not a bloody sample, it's an outlier.
Erm... this would be a drop rate of about .08% - 3x less than you should have gotten. But you seem happy with that, so I'll leave it there!!
I have spent 4 hours per day farming Upper Craglorn nodes and gotten nothing but I have an obscene amount of regents and mats... lol.0 -
snackrat✭✭✭Forums (and /z for that matter) will always make it look like drop rates are lower than they should be, because you only come to the forums to complain about drop rates if they are too low.
If they're good, you crow about it in guildchat and continue playing.
It's the same for anything and anywhere. It's what the idiom 'squeaky wheel gets the grease' is for.Edited by snackrat on August 29, 2015 9:04AM1
This discussion has been closed.