Nirncrux drop rates (Details on Nirncrux inside)

smeeprocketnub19_ESO · September 2014

So I have gotten numbers from three people, two of whom have been farming nodes in upper craglorn for these stones.

First person had farmed 4500 nodes and had gotten 0 stones
second person had farmed 10000 nodes and got 10 stones
last person mailed support about the drop rate and was told it should be .25%

I was wondering if anyone else has been keeping track that has a good sample size that can add to the data, because it appears the stones are not dropping at the intended frequency.

hammer_fella · September 2014

There are plenty. The lore clearly states that they are intended to be very rare. Please do not cry nerf on this.

smeeprocketnub19_ESO · September 2014

hammer_fella wrote: »

There are plenty. The lore clearly states that they are intended to be very rare. Please do not cry nerf on this.

did you read my post? Intended drop rate is .25%, people are getting way way way way less than that. Therefore, it is not working as intended. No nerf requested. Lol

It's not like I wrote an essay or anything.

seanolan · September 2014

And I've farmed about 6000 nodes and gotten 4. RNG. A sample size of 2 people is not a bloody sample, it's an outlier.

Qyrk · September 2014

You had......two sample sizes to compare and jumped right away to conclusion, it's not dropping as intended!!!! I gathered 960 nodes, got 2. If the percentage is correct, based on this this is intended. RNG is RNG. Doesn't mean you're always going to get .25% all the time......

dharbert · September 2014

I know most everyone is using Nirnhoned armor and weapons for research right now, but can't you also get Nirncrux from deconstructing Nirnhoned items?

smeeprocketnub19_ESO · September 2014

You guys are missing something.

It doesn't matter how many people the sample size is, what matters is the number of times it is tested.

If you have 20 people that have farmed 10 nodes each, THAT is a bad sample size.

RNG levels out by the time you do 5k+ I would guess.

if sally harvests 5k nodes and billy harvests 5k nodes it is the same statistically as if sally had harvested 10k nodes. Maybe that makes it clearer.

I mean, I realize they are going for a fortune and we all want in on that, but it does not make crafting with this trait feasible.

hammer_fella · September 2014

smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »

hammer_fella wrote: »

There are plenty. The lore clearly states that they are intended to be very rare. Please do not cry nerf on this.

did you read my post? Intended drop rate is .25%, people are getting way way way way less than that. Therefore, it is not working as intended. No nerf requested. Lol

It's not like I wrote an essay or anything.

Fair enough, perhaps I leapt to a conclusion of intent as that's just the direction these conversations tend to go. Speaking anecdotally, with no concern for the actual numbers, I believe it is dropping at a sufficient rate, that was my only point.

smeeprocketnub19_ESO · September 2014

hammer_fella wrote: »

smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »

hammer_fella wrote: »

There are plenty. The lore clearly states that they are intended to be very rare. Please do not cry nerf on this.

did you read my post? Intended drop rate is .25%, people are getting way way way way less than that. Therefore, it is not working as intended. No nerf requested. Lol

It's not like I wrote an essay or anything.

Fair enough, perhaps I leapt to a conclusion of intent as that's just the direction these conversations tend to go. Speaking anecdotally, with no concern for the actual numbers, I believe it is dropping at a sufficient rate, that was my only point.

okay that makes more sense and is more what I am interested in hearing. Do you happen to have any numbers on what you got versus how many nodes you farmed?

I am genuinely looking for more numbers, so I am not sure why people are so hostile. It very well may be the RNG, hence the need for more data.

It's not like it being bugged would be unheard of or anything.

hammer_fella · September 2014

I really can't give you specifics, only broad generalizations. I've farmed for hours and found nothing, and on other days I've found 3-4 in an hour. You do the math and figure out how many nodes it is reasonable that I could cover in that period. On one occasion I retrieved two stones (one of each variety) within 3 nodes!

Maotti · September 2014

So which nodes actually have a chance to give out this? Wood, Cloth and Ore only?

smeeprocketnub19_ESO · September 2014

Maotti_Nor wrote: »

So which nodes actually have a chance to give out this? Wood, Cloth and Ore only?

I'm actually trying to figure that out also. I can confirm ore and am guessing that cloth and wood are it also, but I am not sure if enchanting or plants will give you a chance. It is hard to tell with the drop rate, bugged or not.

starkerealm · September 2014

smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »

You guys are missing something.

It doesn't matter how many people the sample size is, what matters is the number of times it is tested.

If you have 20 people that have farmed 10 nodes each, THAT is a bad sample size.

RNG levels out by the time you do 5k+ I would guess.

if sally harvests 5k nodes and billy harvests 5k nodes it is the same statistically as if sally had harvested 10k nodes. Maybe that makes it clearer.

I mean, I realize they are going for a fortune and we all want in on that, but it does not make crafting with this trait feasible.

It levels out at 1k, that should have a 5% margin for error. (Technically at 1024, but anyway...)

8k should put your margin for error around 0.625% (Unless I'm misremembering my error margins.)

A .25% drop rate would mean roughly one drop every 400 plants. Except, random number generators almost never work like that. Stuff that gets pushed towards the bottom end of the spectrum becomes vanishingly rare.

At 4500, 0 results is within 1.25% (~56 stones) of the intended drop rate (11.25 stones).

At 10k, the margin for error should be around 0.5% (I used to know the exact margin on that population, but it's been too long.) At 10k you should see 25 stones with a margin for error of about 50 stones. Which, again, meshes with the data.

Short version, when you're dealing with target numbers this small in a population (the number of nodes harvested) this large, getting accurate data is an utter pain. At 14500, we're already at the point where your margin for error isn't going to really get much smaller, but with a 1:400 drop rate, these things are going to be absurdly rare for awhile.

Also, it's been a long time since I've had to do this math, so I could be a little wonky on a couple points.

Vanzen · September 2014

There are people capable of farming 4000 nodes for a piece of crafting material ...? Scary ...
And some capable of farming 10000 ? I wont even comment ...

Qyrk · September 2014

Each harvest has a .25% of dropping the stone, independent on previous harvest.

hammer_fella · September 2014

smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »

Maotti_Nor wrote: »

So which nodes actually have a chance to give out this? Wood, Cloth and Ore only?

I'm actually trying to figure that out also. I can confirm ore and am guessing that cloth and wood are it also, but I am not sure if enchanting or plants will give you a chance. It is hard to tell with the drop rate, bugged or not.

I hate to give away my secrets, but cat's almost out of the bag anyway.

Alchemy/rune nodes? No. Heavy sacks, and mobs that drop hide, in addition to wood, ore, and cloth.

starkerealm · September 2014

Vanzen wrote: »

There are people capable of farming 4000 nodes for a piece of crafting material ...? Scary ...
And some capable of farming 10000 ? I wont even comment ...

I have a suspicion on that front, but I'm not going to throw around random accusations.

dharbert · September 2014

Vanzen wrote: »

There are people capable of farming 4000 nodes for a piece of crafting material ...? Scary ...
And some capable of farming 10000 ? I wont even comment ...

They probably meant that they gathered 4,000 to 10,000 items. Each node gives 2 to 4 items each.

I also harvest Upper Craglorn, and there just aren't that many nodes. 4,000 items is 40 stacks and 10,000 items is 100 stacks. Not possible unless you never stopped harvesting 24/7 since the patch came out.

If they actually meant to say they harvested 10,000 nodes, that is 200 to 400 stacks. Again, not possible.

smeeprocketnub19_ESO · September 2014

dharbert wrote: »

Vanzen wrote: »

There are people capable of farming 4000 nodes for a piece of crafting material ...? Scary ...
And some capable of farming 10000 ? I wont even comment ...

They probably meant that they gathered 4,000 to 10,000 items. Each node gives 2 to 4 items each.

I also harvest Upper Craglorn, and there just aren't that many nodes. 4,000 items is 40 stacks and 10,000 items is 100 stacks. Not possible unless you never stopped harvesting 24/7 since the patch came out,

no they meant nodes, item gathered would be irrelevant. I can't prove they did just that however. But I can't prove anything technically without video evidence or some other form of hard data

smeeprocketnub19_ESO · September 2014

starkerealm wrote: »

smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »

You guys are missing something.

It doesn't matter how many people the sample size is, what matters is the number of times it is tested.

If you have 20 people that have farmed 10 nodes each, THAT is a bad sample size.

RNG levels out by the time you do 5k+ I would guess.

if sally harvests 5k nodes and billy harvests 5k nodes it is the same statistically as if sally had harvested 10k nodes. Maybe that makes it clearer.

I mean, I realize they are going for a fortune and we all want in on that, but it does not make crafting with this trait feasible.

It levels out at 1k, that should have a 5% margin for error. (Technically at 1024, but anyway...)

8k should put your margin for error around 0.625% (Unless I'm misremembering my error margins.)

A .25% drop rate would mean roughly one drop every 400 plants. Except, random number generators almost never work like that. Stuff that gets pushed towards the bottom end of the spectrum becomes vanishingly rare.

At 4500, 0 results is within 1.25% (~56 stones) of the intended drop rate (11.25 stones).

At 10k, the margin for error should be around 0.5% (I used to know the exact margin on that population, but it's been too long.) At 10k you should see 25 stones with a margin for error of about 50 stones. Which, again, meshes with the data.

Short version, when you're dealing with target numbers this small in a population (the number of nodes harvested) this large, getting accurate data is an utter pain. At 14500, we're already at the point where your margin for error isn't going to really get much smaller, but with a 1:400 drop rate, these things are going to be absurdly rare for awhile.

Also, it's been a long time since I've had to do this math, so I could be a little wonky on a couple points.

That really helps, thanks so much.

I'll collect more data if I can, but that definitely gives the impression that the drop rate is as intended.

dharbert · September 2014

smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »

dharbert wrote: »

Vanzen wrote: »

There are people capable of farming 4000 nodes for a piece of crafting material ...? Scary ...
And some capable of farming 10000 ? I wont even comment ...

They probably meant that they gathered 4,000 to 10,000 items. Each node gives 2 to 4 items each.

I also harvest Upper Craglorn, and there just aren't that many nodes. 4,000 items is 40 stacks and 10,000 items is 100 stacks. Not possible unless you never stopped harvesting 24/7 since the patch came out,

no they meant nodes, item gathered would be irrelevant. I can't prove they did just that however. But I can't prove anything technically without video evidence or some other form of hard data

As I said above, 10,000 nodes is 200 to 400 stacks of resources. Not possible for a single player to do given the timeframe.

smeeprocketnub19_ESO · September 2014

dharbert wrote: »

smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »

dharbert wrote: »

Vanzen wrote: »

There are people capable of farming 4000 nodes for a piece of crafting material ...? Scary ...
And some capable of farming 10000 ? I wont even comment ...

They probably meant that they gathered 4,000 to 10,000 items. Each node gives 2 to 4 items each.

I also harvest Upper Craglorn, and there just aren't that many nodes. 4,000 items is 40 stacks and 10,000 items is 100 stacks. Not possible unless you never stopped harvesting 24/7 since the patch came out,

no they meant nodes, item gathered would be irrelevant. I can't prove they did just that however. But I can't prove anything technically without video evidence or some other form of hard data

As I said above, 10,000 nodes is 200 to 400 stacks of resources. Not possible for a single player to do given the timeframe.

what are you going by with regards to time per node? Sometimes several nodes will be right next to each other.

dharbert · September 2014

smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »

dharbert wrote: »

smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »

dharbert wrote: »

Vanzen wrote: »

There are people capable of farming 4000 nodes for a piece of crafting material ...? Scary ...
And some capable of farming 10000 ? I wont even comment ...

They probably meant that they gathered 4,000 to 10,000 items. Each node gives 2 to 4 items each.

I also harvest Upper Craglorn, and there just aren't that many nodes. 4,000 items is 40 stacks and 10,000 items is 100 stacks. Not possible unless you never stopped harvesting 24/7 since the patch came out,

no they meant nodes, item gathered would be irrelevant. I can't prove they did just that however. But I can't prove anything technically without video evidence or some other form of hard data

As I said above, 10,000 nodes is 200 to 400 stacks of resources. Not possible for a single player to do given the timeframe.

what are you going by with regards to time per node? Sometimes several nodes will be right next to each other.

There aren't that many ore, cloth, and wood nodes in Upper Craglorn. There is also competition from other players for these same nodes. I farm Craglorn a lot for resources and I know how many stacks I can get and how long it takes.

There is no way a single player harvested 10,000 nodes since the patch hit.

hammer_fella · September 2014

Yeah, I've farmed as much as anyone and surely haven't even come close to those numbers. I'm on quite frequently, so that would be pretty much inhuman.

JessieColt · September 2014

smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »

hammer_fella wrote: »

There are plenty. The lore clearly states that they are intended to be very rare. Please do not cry nerf on this.

did you read my post? Intended drop rate is .25%, people are getting way way way way less than that. Therefore, it is not working as intended. No nerf requested. Lol

It's not like I wrote an essay or anything.

Welcome to the world of Maths and Statistics.

Each time you harvest a node you will have .25% of a chance to get one of the stones.

This does not mean that you will get 25 for every 10000 nodes.

Every time you flip a coin you have a 50/50 chance of getting heads. Just because you didn't get heads the last time you flipped the coin does not mean you suddenly have a greater chance of getting heads on the next flip.

Each and every coin toss will always have a 50/50 chance of being heads.

Each and every time you harvest a node you will have a .25% chance of getting a stone, regardless of whether you did or did not get one on the last node.

tordr86b16_ESO · September 2014

Talk about creating a synthetic economy. I thought that creating a balanced economy in a game is for them to make them desirable enough for people wanting to buy em, not just blatantly keep the drop rate so low that the only ones getting em is insane people.

seanolan · September 2014

It can't be THAT bad...I have gotten 7 of them in 8 hours of harvesting....NO WAY am I harvesting, what, 2800 or so nodes in that time. I suspect .25% is false, unless I am the luckiest man alive for Nirncrux.

Khami · September 2014

I clicked on two different voidstone ore and got two trait stones.

dcincali · September 2014

I got mine off a mudcrab... No joke..

ThisOnePosts · September 2014

It's definitely lower than 0.25% I understand that it's also RNG but it definitely doesn't seem right.

With that said, I do have several Nirnhoned items --- even rare ones you don't seem spammed in chat. I have gone through some nirncrux both fortified and potent but I farmed A LOT and got most out of trade.

I didn't keep track but it's sure as heck enough to put me into a spot where I should have a few more than what I found and let's face it, a few more is a big deal right now for nirncrux. But no need for nerf, it would be nice though if maxed out hirelings had a small chance to bring it too (like Tomatoes and Oats...although Tomatoes are rarer than Oats in my findings).

Iorail · September 2014

Qyrk wrote: »

Each harvest has a .25% of dropping the stone, independent on previous harvest.

^^^^^This guys get it!;
You can harvest 4 and get 4, or harvest 4 and get nothing. What surprise me is the inability of people to understand this. Not because you harvest 4,000 nodes, you are going to get 400 stones....each attempt is .25% for EACH node, independent of any other node or harvest you have done previously.