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Do Kuta still come from hirelings?
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fromtesonlineb16_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
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Because the poster he's responding to was being condescending to everyone arguing against him, like he always does, posing as if he knows something when in reality he has no more idea than anyone else .. this 'green' post shows he was actually had no idea what he was talking about.smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »ZOS_GinaBruno wrote: »Hi everyone. We were able to take a look at this, and it does appear that there was an issue that was preventing some of you from receiving kuta from your hireling. We're working on a fix now, and hope to roll it out very soon. Thanks for bringing this to our attention (from all threads and avenues)!
@nerevarine1138 just for you bro
that was just posted like 3 posts up. Why would you need to repost it..
Edited by fromtesonlineb16_ESO on September 5, 2014 6:29AM0 -
Shagreth✭✭✭✭✭
✭It's not just from hirelings I think, I farm runes very often and I haven't found a single kuta in two months. It's most likely just me being extremely unlucky though.0 -
Kvasir Silverpaw✭✭✭I used to get Kuta pretty often from hirelings but I have not got one in over a month. Do I just have really bad luck or do they not show up anymore? I have three enchanting hirelings and I have noticed they bring back far less aspect runes in general but no Kuta at all.
my hirelings seem to be about the only place to get them. ive looted well over 200 aspect nodes....and gotten 1 kuta.....one. i have 1 toon with 47 enc, 1 with 32 enc, and 5 with lvl 12 enc....and i get at least 1 kuta a day off them collectively. sometimes 2.0 -
Simstar✭
This comment is spot on! This is what this thread is all about.What we were arguing was there was enough of a trend to warrant it being looked in to. Luckily unlike you ZOS doesn't require enough data for a peer reviewed publication to notice the trend and looked in to it.
While looking into the issue, I hope ZOS will increase transparency in the hireling system, perhaps by changing the mouse-over text in the hireling description. Hopefully, more official information will reduce the feeling of frustration from the players putting skillpoints into this.
I too don't believe that skill passives are affecting world nodes. That seems to be my only agreement with @nerevarine1138.Edited by Simstar on September 5, 2014 11:19AM0 -
nerevarine1138✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭nerevarine1138 wrote: »
Please explain how a runestone that is the same for everyone in your instance would be affected in any way by your character's passives.
The same way contents of treasure chests aren't determined until you open them. The existence of the node might be shared, but the system could just as easily determine the contents globally, or at the time of harvesting.
That wasn't the claim being made. That poster claimed that they were seeing more aspect runestones in the world, not that they were looting better ones. The color of the runestones in the world is not determined by your character.Edited by nerevarine1138 on September 5, 2014 12:03PM----
Murray?0 -
kitsinni✭✭✭✭✭Got another Kuta this morning after none for that long and 6 total in two weeks. If Aspect Extraction doesn't have anything to do with it I should be buying lotto tickets.0
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nerevarine1138✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Got another Kuta this morning after none for that long and 6 total in two weeks. If Aspect Extraction doesn't have anything to do with it I should be buying lotto tickets.
Have you noticed that I accept what ZO said without questioning their numbers?
If Aspect Extraction has anything to do with it, then let them spell it out, because you don't have access to the tools required to prove it. ZO does. When they test it, they can literally hit a button and look at data from thousands of simulated hireling mails. That's why I trust their methods and not yours.
At no point did I say that ZO shouldn't look in to it or that people shouldn't report it to them (instead of creating a giant, confusing thread for people to spout various conspiracy theories in), but player anecdotes are still not enough to justify saying that there's a drop issue. There simply wasn't enough data just from that, and I'm 100% sure that ZO didn't issue a statement until now because they needed to do more rigorous testing of the system.----
Murray?0 -
kitsinni✭✭✭✭✭nerevarine1138 wrote: »Got another Kuta this morning after none for that long and 6 total in two weeks. If Aspect Extraction doesn't have anything to do with it I should be buying lotto tickets.
Have you noticed that I accept what ZO said without questioning their numbers?
If Aspect Extraction has anything to do with it, then let them spell it out, because you don't have access to the tools required to prove it. ZO does. When they test it, they can literally hit a button and look at data from thousands of simulated hireling mails. That's why I trust their methods and not yours.
At no point did I say that ZO shouldn't look in to it or that people shouldn't report it to them (instead of creating a giant, confusing thread for people to spout various conspiracy theories in), but player anecdotes are still not enough to justify saying that there's a drop issue. There simply wasn't enough data just from that, and I'm 100% sure that ZO didn't issue a statement until now because they needed to do more rigorous testing of the system.
You didn't say ZOS shouldn't look in to it, you said we shouldn't because no matter how many of us tested and how much data we provided it all added up to anecdotes from disgruntled customers because we couldn't be 100% sure and didn't have enough data for a published peer reviewed journal .. which is an extremely absurd statement and shows a real lack of knowledge of computer programming, logic and mathematics. I honestly don't care if you trust my methods or what you think.Luckily ZOS does have some employees with enough knowledge of computers programming, statistics and mathematics to see that the testing we did was valuable even with you trying your hardest to get us to stop doing it.
[Moderator Note: Edited per our rules on Flaming]Edited by ZOS_UlyssesW on September 5, 2014 1:43PM0 -
fiske✭nerevarine1138 wrote: »That wasn't the claim being made. That poster claimed that they were seeing more aspect runestones in the world, not that they were looting better ones. The color of the runestones in the world is not determined by your character.
My mistake, although, do we know that though? I'm not claiming it does (although I've often wondered, just never wondered enough to actually ask around if everyone sees the same color I do).
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kitsinni✭✭✭✭✭nerevarine1138 wrote: »That wasn't the claim being made. That poster claimed that they were seeing more aspect runestones in the world, not that they were looting better ones. The color of the runestones in the world is not determined by your character.
My mistake, although, do we know that though? I'm not claiming it does (although I've often wondered, just never wondered enough to actually ask around if everyone sees the same color I do).
I'm pretty sure we do see the same one. I have often been in team speak with someone and we will both say Aspect Rune!
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12 Kutas from 1* Hireling 3 and 1* Hireling 2 since I specced Aspect Extraction 8 days ago.
Without doing math I can say, that I've been getting more Kutas than green, blue or purple Aspect runes.
This stands compared to over 200 Hireling Mails in which I'm not sure anymore, if I got 1 or 0 Kuta's, when still having no points in Aspect Extraction.
It's really incredible, what Aspect Extraction does.Noricum
Thx to Giny, Sarana, Thaili, Derra, Cherahim, Gloy, Raweelz and Drimacus, you make the game worth playing even with AoE-caps, no usefull progression past Assault / Support Rank 10, and with PvP being not even close to balanced.
Chars: Sera - VR12 Templar (Heal / DPS) ||| Seraliah - VR12 Dragonknight (DPS / Tank)0 -
smeeprocketnub19_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
✭The point was, the data you were presenting was gathered from incomplete sources, ALL anecdotal, and you didn't even have enough numbers to get a good conclusion. (for a control or otherwise) But you were acting like you had solid, empirical evidence.Dear Sister, I do not spread rumors, I create them.0 -
smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »The point was, the data you were presenting was gathered from incomplete sources, ALL anecdotal, and you didn't even have enough numbers to get a good conclusion. (for a control or otherwise) But you were acting like you had solid, empirical evidence.
So you think it's wrong making others aware of something good?Noricum
Thx to Giny, Sarana, Thaili, Derra, Cherahim, Gloy, Raweelz and Drimacus, you make the game worth playing even with AoE-caps, no usefull progression past Assault / Support Rank 10, and with PvP being not even close to balanced.
Chars: Sera - VR12 Templar (Heal / DPS) ||| Seraliah - VR12 Dragonknight (DPS / Tank)0 -
smeeprocketnub19_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
✭philip.ploegerb16_ESO wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »The point was, the data you were presenting was gathered from incomplete sources, ALL anecdotal, and you didn't even have enough numbers to get a good conclusion. (for a control or otherwise) But you were acting like you had solid, empirical evidence.
So you think it's wrong making others aware of something good?
something good?Dear Sister, I do not spread rumors, I create them.0 -
smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »philip.ploegerb16_ESO wrote: »smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »The point was, the data you were presenting was gathered from incomplete sources, ALL anecdotal, and you didn't even have enough numbers to get a good conclusion. (for a control or otherwise) But you were acting like you had solid, empirical evidence.
So you think it's wrong making others aware of something good?
something good?
Aspect Extraction yielding more Kuta's for the owner.Noricum
Thx to Giny, Sarana, Thaili, Derra, Cherahim, Gloy, Raweelz and Drimacus, you make the game worth playing even with AoE-caps, no usefull progression past Assault / Support Rank 10, and with PvP being not even close to balanced.
Chars: Sera - VR12 Templar (Heal / DPS) ||| Seraliah - VR12 Dragonknight (DPS / Tank)0 -
kitsinni✭✭✭✭✭smeeprocketnub19_ESO wrote: »The point was, the data you were presenting was gathered from incomplete sources, ALL anecdotal, and you didn't even have enough numbers to get a good conclusion. (for a control or otherwise) But you were acting like you had solid, empirical evidence.
How about provide some evidence showing people putting points in aspect extraction and not getting Kuta. I have now got 8 since the 25th of august and lots of other people are filling up with them. I think all of us now getting kuta are fine without having enough data for a published journal, since at the end of the day we just wanted the mat.
With the number of people who got none for over a month all of which got many in the last couple weeks after putting points in the same skill makes the statistical chance of it being unrelated laughable. Technically you can get hit by lighting 3 times the same day you win the lotto in 20 states too, you don't need a peer reviewed journal to know it's not going to happen.0 -
Ezareth✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭Thank God someone else posted this! I was beginning to think I was the only player impacted by this bug! Before you all jump on the bandwagon and talk about random chances and the like, I get SEVEN max quality enchanting hirelings a day. I had a supply of 45 kuta from just hirelings, despite wasting a ton selling enchants or enchanting my own equipment multiple times back and forth.
Starting somewhere around 40-50 days ago I just stopped getting Kuta. I'm now down to 22 Kuta. In the same time I've gotten 40-50 dreugh wax, 30-40 Rosin and 20-30 Tempering Alloy from the same number of hirelings for the other crafting skills. I get a ton of rekutas denatas and jejota but often I just get no aspect runes. Legendary drops are ~10% with a max quality hireling in my experience. It is statistically improbable that I haven't got ONE in over 300 hirelings.
Final piece of evidence is this. This used to be bugged for me before, except with potency runes. I had a 30 day period where none of my hirelings would give me a potency rune. My friends still got them regularly but something happened with my account that stopped them. This was fixed on the patch when they removed the hireling bags....I started getting them in emails again.
This bug is BS and has cost me at least 100k gold in mats and I doubt the devs are even aware of its existence since it only appears to affect certain accounts.
Permanently banned from the forums for displaying dissent: ESO - The Year Behind
Too Much Bolt Escape - banned for "hacking the game to create movement not otherwise permitted by in game mechanics."
Ezareth VR16 AD Sorc - Rank 36 - Axe NA
Ezareth-Ali VR16 DC NB - Rank 20 - Chillrend NA
Ezareth PvP on Youtube0 -
Ezareth✭✭✭✭✭
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OK, seriously? I was directly addressing the person who claimed in no uncertain terms that it is bugged. Something that he has absolutely no possible way of knowing. For mechanics that don't involve RNG it's easy to tell if they're bugged - even if the bug is only affecting some people and not others. For mechanics that do involve RNG it's impossible to tell without being able to see the full server stats. He's claiming that it's bugged, so he needs to back that up, and he can't. I only responded to his unsupportable claim, therefore the burden of proof is entirely on him.
Really. Show me evidence that proves that you're not just having a string of bad luck with RNG. Until you can do that (and you can't do that without server-wide stats that show what everyone is getting from their hirelings), you have absolutely no way of saying that it's bugged. That's the nature of any mechanic that relies on RNG. Just because you don't understand that doesn't mean that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »
The bank bug had nothing to do with RNG. Your anecdote, and those of some other people, doesn't imply anything about it being bugged. It implies you've had bad luck. Others have reported having abnormally good luck with Kuta. That doesn't imply that it's bugged either. That implies they've had good luck. Is it possible that it's bugged? Sure. Without seeing server-wide stats, however, there's absolutely no evidence of that. That's the nature of RNG - unless you see the whole picture there's no way of saying that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »
No, it's not bugged. It's a random number generator. Sometimes the RNG gods look favorably on you, and sometimes they don't. When you have a streak of bad luck it doesn't mean that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »Haven't seen one in weeks from my maxed enchanting hireling. On the other hand, my clothing/blacksmith/woodworking hirelings bring at least one yellow a week.
Seems that this is bugged.
Yeah yeah RNG blah blah blah. 0/60 Kutas in enchanting mails, compared to 10-15/60 for every other craft does imply that it is bugged. Along with the fact that hireling mails have bugged in the past, AND that other people are noticing this, certainly makes a strong case that some people are in fact experiencing a bug with enchanter hireling mails.
Remember the bank bug that was affecting a small portion of people? Just because you are not personally experiencing the bug, does not mean that it isn't bugged.
Okay, you are starting to understand. The Kuta bug has nothing to do with RNG either...
You don't need to see server wide stats. In fact, server wide stats will tell you absolutely nothing. The fact that some people have good luck with Kuta tells you absolutely nothing (RNG as you said).
The fact that multiple people have gone months without getting a Kuta is the only relevant information in this thread. Since you clearly have difficulty grasping the issue, and have nothing to contribute to this thread, please stop polluting this thread with your pointless posts.
I feel like we are playing ping pong here. Ok show me evidence that the string of back luck is only the result of RNG. Until you can do that you have absolutely no way of saying it's not bugged.
Where is your proof there is no issue just because RNG is involved? RNG was involved when I got them almost daily for months, never went more than a few days, and that was when I only had one enchanting hireling now I have 3. So out of nowhere with three times the chance the RNG gods are just mad at me for months I guess. Many people in game have said they have not got them for over a month .. in fact the same exact month and I never heard anyone complain about this issue before that. Maybe it is just RNG affecting one component and a lot of people are having the same exact bad RNG luck all at the same time or maybe something has changed, and maybe it is only affecting certain people.
Where is your "proof" you keep asking for that nothing has changed?
Again, though, it's important to note that none of that was directed to you. It's directed towards the guy who is blindly claiming that it is definitely bugged, with absolutely no way of knowing that.
@Urquan he did prove it was bug by presenting statistical evidence. Legendary items in mails are NOT rare. As you see many people get then all the time. This person, and myself, and many others however have pointed out that they all stopped getting them withing the same time frame. Statistically that is improbable especially considering the high drop rate of Kuta before the bug.
Added to this there is the precedence of this bug happening in the past in a similar fashion. You're just plain wrong here and your continued presence adds nothing to a thread that doesn't concern you.Permanently banned from the forums for displaying dissent: ESO - The Year Behind
Too Much Bolt Escape - banned for "hacking the game to create movement not otherwise permitted by in game mechanics."
Ezareth VR16 AD Sorc - Rank 36 - Axe NA
Ezareth-Ali VR16 DC NB - Rank 20 - Chillrend NA
Ezareth PvP on Youtube1 -
Ezareth✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭Third kuta in a week after putting 3 points in aspect extraction. After 3 months of getting none. Had 4/4 aspect improvement the whole time
This sounds like a possible fix, I used to have 3/3 aspect extraction. However I am certain I've got them on my alt hirelings who have 0 skill points into anything other than hirelings so if that is the case it is still either a bug or an unannounced change to the way hirelings work.Permanently banned from the forums for displaying dissent: ESO - The Year Behind
Too Much Bolt Escape - banned for "hacking the game to create movement not otherwise permitted by in game mechanics."
Ezareth VR16 AD Sorc - Rank 36 - Axe NA
Ezareth-Ali VR16 DC NB - Rank 20 - Chillrend NA
Ezareth PvP on Youtube0 -
UrQuan✭✭✭✭✭
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My "continued presence" in this thread you say @ezareth_ESO? Interesting. The last time I even looked at this thread before I got a notification that you had mentioned me in it was when I posted the very post you quoted. Hmm, did you happen to notice the date on that? In case you didn't notice, the date on that post was August 20th, back on page 2 of a thread that is now 7 pages long. Please tell me more about my "continued presence" in a thread that I haven't bothered looking at in 18 days...ezareth_ESO wrote: »
OK, seriously? I was directly addressing the person who claimed in no uncertain terms that it is bugged. Something that he has absolutely no possible way of knowing. For mechanics that don't involve RNG it's easy to tell if they're bugged - even if the bug is only affecting some people and not others. For mechanics that do involve RNG it's impossible to tell without being able to see the full server stats. He's claiming that it's bugged, so he needs to back that up, and he can't. I only responded to his unsupportable claim, therefore the burden of proof is entirely on him.
Really. Show me evidence that proves that you're not just having a string of bad luck with RNG. Until you can do that (and you can't do that without server-wide stats that show what everyone is getting from their hirelings), you have absolutely no way of saying that it's bugged. That's the nature of any mechanic that relies on RNG. Just because you don't understand that doesn't mean that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »
The bank bug had nothing to do with RNG. Your anecdote, and those of some other people, doesn't imply anything about it being bugged. It implies you've had bad luck. Others have reported having abnormally good luck with Kuta. That doesn't imply that it's bugged either. That implies they've had good luck. Is it possible that it's bugged? Sure. Without seeing server-wide stats, however, there's absolutely no evidence of that. That's the nature of RNG - unless you see the whole picture there's no way of saying that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »
No, it's not bugged. It's a random number generator. Sometimes the RNG gods look favorably on you, and sometimes they don't. When you have a streak of bad luck it doesn't mean that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »Haven't seen one in weeks from my maxed enchanting hireling. On the other hand, my clothing/blacksmith/woodworking hirelings bring at least one yellow a week.
Seems that this is bugged.
Yeah yeah RNG blah blah blah. 0/60 Kutas in enchanting mails, compared to 10-15/60 for every other craft does imply that it is bugged. Along with the fact that hireling mails have bugged in the past, AND that other people are noticing this, certainly makes a strong case that some people are in fact experiencing a bug with enchanter hireling mails.
Remember the bank bug that was affecting a small portion of people? Just because you are not personally experiencing the bug, does not mean that it isn't bugged.
Okay, you are starting to understand. The Kuta bug has nothing to do with RNG either...
You don't need to see server wide stats. In fact, server wide stats will tell you absolutely nothing. The fact that some people have good luck with Kuta tells you absolutely nothing (RNG as you said).
The fact that multiple people have gone months without getting a Kuta is the only relevant information in this thread. Since you clearly have difficulty grasping the issue, and have nothing to contribute to this thread, please stop polluting this thread with your pointless posts.
I feel like we are playing ping pong here. Ok show me evidence that the string of back luck is only the result of RNG. Until you can do that you have absolutely no way of saying it's not bugged.
Where is your proof there is no issue just because RNG is involved? RNG was involved when I got them almost daily for months, never went more than a few days, and that was when I only had one enchanting hireling now I have 3. So out of nowhere with three times the chance the RNG gods are just mad at me for months I guess. Many people in game have said they have not got them for over a month .. in fact the same exact month and I never heard anyone complain about this issue before that. Maybe it is just RNG affecting one component and a lot of people are having the same exact bad RNG luck all at the same time or maybe something has changed, and maybe it is only affecting certain people.
Where is your "proof" you keep asking for that nothing has changed?
Again, though, it's important to note that none of that was directed to you. It's directed towards the guy who is blindly claiming that it is definitely bugged, with absolutely no way of knowing that.
@Urquan he did prove it was bug by presenting statistical evidence. Legendary items in mails are NOT rare. As you see many people get then all the time. This person, and myself, and many others however have pointed out that they all stopped getting them withing the same time frame. Statistically that is improbable especially considering the high drop rate of Kuta before the bug.
Added to this there is the precedence of this bug happening in the past in a similar fashion. You're just plain wrong here and your continued presence adds nothing to a thread that doesn't concern you.
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Ezareth✭✭✭✭✭
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My "continued presence" in this thread you say @ezareth_ESO? Interesting. The last time I even looked at this thread before I got a notification that you had mentioned me in it was when I posted the very post you quoted. Hmm, did you happen to notice the date on that? In case you didn't notice, the date on that post was August 20th, back on page 2 of a thread that is now 7 pages long. Please tell me more about my "continued presence" in a thread that I haven't bothered looking at in 18 days...ezareth_ESO wrote: »
OK, seriously? I was directly addressing the person who claimed in no uncertain terms that it is bugged. Something that he has absolutely no possible way of knowing. For mechanics that don't involve RNG it's easy to tell if they're bugged - even if the bug is only affecting some people and not others. For mechanics that do involve RNG it's impossible to tell without being able to see the full server stats. He's claiming that it's bugged, so he needs to back that up, and he can't. I only responded to his unsupportable claim, therefore the burden of proof is entirely on him.
Really. Show me evidence that proves that you're not just having a string of bad luck with RNG. Until you can do that (and you can't do that without server-wide stats that show what everyone is getting from their hirelings), you have absolutely no way of saying that it's bugged. That's the nature of any mechanic that relies on RNG. Just because you don't understand that doesn't mean that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »
The bank bug had nothing to do with RNG. Your anecdote, and those of some other people, doesn't imply anything about it being bugged. It implies you've had bad luck. Others have reported having abnormally good luck with Kuta. That doesn't imply that it's bugged either. That implies they've had good luck. Is it possible that it's bugged? Sure. Without seeing server-wide stats, however, there's absolutely no evidence of that. That's the nature of RNG - unless you see the whole picture there's no way of saying that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »
No, it's not bugged. It's a random number generator. Sometimes the RNG gods look favorably on you, and sometimes they don't. When you have a streak of bad luck it doesn't mean that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »Haven't seen one in weeks from my maxed enchanting hireling. On the other hand, my clothing/blacksmith/woodworking hirelings bring at least one yellow a week.
Seems that this is bugged.
Yeah yeah RNG blah blah blah. 0/60 Kutas in enchanting mails, compared to 10-15/60 for every other craft does imply that it is bugged. Along with the fact that hireling mails have bugged in the past, AND that other people are noticing this, certainly makes a strong case that some people are in fact experiencing a bug with enchanter hireling mails.
Remember the bank bug that was affecting a small portion of people? Just because you are not personally experiencing the bug, does not mean that it isn't bugged.
Okay, you are starting to understand. The Kuta bug has nothing to do with RNG either...
You don't need to see server wide stats. In fact, server wide stats will tell you absolutely nothing. The fact that some people have good luck with Kuta tells you absolutely nothing (RNG as you said).
The fact that multiple people have gone months without getting a Kuta is the only relevant information in this thread. Since you clearly have difficulty grasping the issue, and have nothing to contribute to this thread, please stop polluting this thread with your pointless posts.
I feel like we are playing ping pong here. Ok show me evidence that the string of back luck is only the result of RNG. Until you can do that you have absolutely no way of saying it's not bugged.
Where is your proof there is no issue just because RNG is involved? RNG was involved when I got them almost daily for months, never went more than a few days, and that was when I only had one enchanting hireling now I have 3. So out of nowhere with three times the chance the RNG gods are just mad at me for months I guess. Many people in game have said they have not got them for over a month .. in fact the same exact month and I never heard anyone complain about this issue before that. Maybe it is just RNG affecting one component and a lot of people are having the same exact bad RNG luck all at the same time or maybe something has changed, and maybe it is only affecting certain people.
Where is your "proof" you keep asking for that nothing has changed?
Again, though, it's important to note that none of that was directed to you. It's directed towards the guy who is blindly claiming that it is definitely bugged, with absolutely no way of knowing that.
@Urquan he did prove it was bug by presenting statistical evidence. Legendary items in mails are NOT rare. As you see many people get then all the time. This person, and myself, and many others however have pointed out that they all stopped getting them withing the same time frame. Statistically that is improbable especially considering the high drop rate of Kuta before the bug.
Added to this there is the precedence of this bug happening in the past in a similar fashion. You're just plain wrong here and your continued presence adds nothing to a thread that doesn't concern you.
ehh I just made it to the second page before I responded and was annoyed by your continued responses in the face of contrary evidence(at the time). I never check the general forums, so when I accidentally clicked it on my tablet and saw this thread at the top I dove right in ( =
The other troll that picked up after you was far worse but I saw by then that the bug was acknowledged by ESO so had no desire to take it up with him.
Permanently banned from the forums for displaying dissent: ESO - The Year Behind
Too Much Bolt Escape - banned for "hacking the game to create movement not otherwise permitted by in game mechanics."
Ezareth VR16 AD Sorc - Rank 36 - Axe NA
Ezareth-Ali VR16 DC NB - Rank 20 - Chillrend NA
Ezareth PvP on Youtube0 -
UrQuan✭✭✭✭✭
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Ah, I see. So first you go off half-cocked without paying any attention to what's going on or, oh I don't know, reading the actual thread that you're posting in. And now you're saying that I'm a troll because I correctly argued that anecdotes from a handful of people out of many thousands isn't evidence of anything, and that the only people who would be able to produce any evidence of it being a bug are ZOS?ezareth_ESO wrote: »
My "continued presence" in this thread you say @ezareth_ESO? Interesting. The last time I even looked at this thread before I got a notification that you had mentioned me in it was when I posted the very post you quoted. Hmm, did you happen to notice the date on that? In case you didn't notice, the date on that post was August 20th, back on page 2 of a thread that is now 7 pages long. Please tell me more about my "continued presence" in a thread that I haven't bothered looking at in 18 days...ezareth_ESO wrote: »
OK, seriously? I was directly addressing the person who claimed in no uncertain terms that it is bugged. Something that he has absolutely no possible way of knowing. For mechanics that don't involve RNG it's easy to tell if they're bugged - even if the bug is only affecting some people and not others. For mechanics that do involve RNG it's impossible to tell without being able to see the full server stats. He's claiming that it's bugged, so he needs to back that up, and he can't. I only responded to his unsupportable claim, therefore the burden of proof is entirely on him.
Really. Show me evidence that proves that you're not just having a string of bad luck with RNG. Until you can do that (and you can't do that without server-wide stats that show what everyone is getting from their hirelings), you have absolutely no way of saying that it's bugged. That's the nature of any mechanic that relies on RNG. Just because you don't understand that doesn't mean that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »
The bank bug had nothing to do with RNG. Your anecdote, and those of some other people, doesn't imply anything about it being bugged. It implies you've had bad luck. Others have reported having abnormally good luck with Kuta. That doesn't imply that it's bugged either. That implies they've had good luck. Is it possible that it's bugged? Sure. Without seeing server-wide stats, however, there's absolutely no evidence of that. That's the nature of RNG - unless you see the whole picture there's no way of saying that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »
No, it's not bugged. It's a random number generator. Sometimes the RNG gods look favorably on you, and sometimes they don't. When you have a streak of bad luck it doesn't mean that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »Haven't seen one in weeks from my maxed enchanting hireling. On the other hand, my clothing/blacksmith/woodworking hirelings bring at least one yellow a week.
Seems that this is bugged.
Yeah yeah RNG blah blah blah. 0/60 Kutas in enchanting mails, compared to 10-15/60 for every other craft does imply that it is bugged. Along with the fact that hireling mails have bugged in the past, AND that other people are noticing this, certainly makes a strong case that some people are in fact experiencing a bug with enchanter hireling mails.
Remember the bank bug that was affecting a small portion of people? Just because you are not personally experiencing the bug, does not mean that it isn't bugged.
Okay, you are starting to understand. The Kuta bug has nothing to do with RNG either...
You don't need to see server wide stats. In fact, server wide stats will tell you absolutely nothing. The fact that some people have good luck with Kuta tells you absolutely nothing (RNG as you said).
The fact that multiple people have gone months without getting a Kuta is the only relevant information in this thread. Since you clearly have difficulty grasping the issue, and have nothing to contribute to this thread, please stop polluting this thread with your pointless posts.
I feel like we are playing ping pong here. Ok show me evidence that the string of back luck is only the result of RNG. Until you can do that you have absolutely no way of saying it's not bugged.
Where is your proof there is no issue just because RNG is involved? RNG was involved when I got them almost daily for months, never went more than a few days, and that was when I only had one enchanting hireling now I have 3. So out of nowhere with three times the chance the RNG gods are just mad at me for months I guess. Many people in game have said they have not got them for over a month .. in fact the same exact month and I never heard anyone complain about this issue before that. Maybe it is just RNG affecting one component and a lot of people are having the same exact bad RNG luck all at the same time or maybe something has changed, and maybe it is only affecting certain people.
Where is your "proof" you keep asking for that nothing has changed?
Again, though, it's important to note that none of that was directed to you. It's directed towards the guy who is blindly claiming that it is definitely bugged, with absolutely no way of knowing that.
@Urquan he did prove it was bug by presenting statistical evidence. Legendary items in mails are NOT rare. As you see many people get then all the time. This person, and myself, and many others however have pointed out that they all stopped getting them withing the same time frame. Statistically that is improbable especially considering the high drop rate of Kuta before the bug.
Added to this there is the precedence of this bug happening in the past in a similar fashion. You're just plain wrong here and your continued presence adds nothing to a thread that doesn't concern you.
ehh I just made it to the second page before I responded and was annoyed by your continued responses in the face of contrary evidence(at the time). I never check the general forums, so when I accidentally clicked it on my tablet and saw this thread at the top I dove right in ( =
The other troll that picked up after you was far worse but I saw by then that the bug was acknowledged by ESO so had no desire to take it up with him.
Any time RNG is involved, the only way you can possibly tell if it's working properly is by being able to see under the hood and look at the the stats for everyone. There was not (and could not be) any evidence provided by players in this thread that proved anything at all. Full stop, end of story. As I've maintained the entire time, the only people who could ever tell for sure if this is bugged are ZOS, because they're the only ones who could look at server stats, see who has and hasn't been getting kuta, and see if there's a commonality between the people who aren't getting them (which would be the only way to have evidence that it's a bug), or if they just have bad luck. If you worked in software development you would understand this.
Any other weeks-old posts of mine that you want to dredge up for the purposes of calling me a troll? Any other threads that I haven't visited in weeks that you want to tell me to get out of? Or are you done making yourself look foolish for a while?
Someone stole my sweetrollCaius Drusus Imperial DK (DC)
Bragg Ironhand Orc Temp (DC)
Neesha Stalks-Shadows Argonian NB (EP)
Falidir Altmer Sorcr (AD)
J'zharka Khajiit NB (AD)Isabeau Runeseer Breton Sorc (DC)
Fevassa Dunmer DK (EP)
Manut Redguard Temp (AD)
Tylera the Summoner Altmer Sorc (EP)
Svari Snake-Blood Nord DK (AD)Ashlyn D'Elyse Breton NB (EP)
Filindria Bosmer Temp (DC)
Vigbjorn the Wanderer Nord Warden (EP)
Hrokki Winterborn Breton Warden (DC)
Basks-in-the-Sunshine Argonian Temp0 -
Ezareth✭✭✭✭✭
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Ah, I see. So first you go off half-cocked without paying any attention to what's going on or, oh I don't know, reading the actual thread that you're posting in. And now you're saying that I'm a troll because I correctly argued that anecdotes from a handful of people out of many thousands isn't evidence of anything, and that the only people who would be able to produce any evidence of it being a bug are ZOS?ezareth_ESO wrote: »
My "continued presence" in this thread you say @ezareth_ESO? Interesting. The last time I even looked at this thread before I got a notification that you had mentioned me in it was when I posted the very post you quoted. Hmm, did you happen to notice the date on that? In case you didn't notice, the date on that post was August 20th, back on page 2 of a thread that is now 7 pages long. Please tell me more about my "continued presence" in a thread that I haven't bothered looking at in 18 days...ezareth_ESO wrote: »
OK, seriously? I was directly addressing the person who claimed in no uncertain terms that it is bugged. Something that he has absolutely no possible way of knowing. For mechanics that don't involve RNG it's easy to tell if they're bugged - even if the bug is only affecting some people and not others. For mechanics that do involve RNG it's impossible to tell without being able to see the full server stats. He's claiming that it's bugged, so he needs to back that up, and he can't. I only responded to his unsupportable claim, therefore the burden of proof is entirely on him.
Really. Show me evidence that proves that you're not just having a string of bad luck with RNG. Until you can do that (and you can't do that without server-wide stats that show what everyone is getting from their hirelings), you have absolutely no way of saying that it's bugged. That's the nature of any mechanic that relies on RNG. Just because you don't understand that doesn't mean that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »
The bank bug had nothing to do with RNG. Your anecdote, and those of some other people, doesn't imply anything about it being bugged. It implies you've had bad luck. Others have reported having abnormally good luck with Kuta. That doesn't imply that it's bugged either. That implies they've had good luck. Is it possible that it's bugged? Sure. Without seeing server-wide stats, however, there's absolutely no evidence of that. That's the nature of RNG - unless you see the whole picture there's no way of saying that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »
No, it's not bugged. It's a random number generator. Sometimes the RNG gods look favorably on you, and sometimes they don't. When you have a streak of bad luck it doesn't mean that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »Haven't seen one in weeks from my maxed enchanting hireling. On the other hand, my clothing/blacksmith/woodworking hirelings bring at least one yellow a week.
Seems that this is bugged.
Yeah yeah RNG blah blah blah. 0/60 Kutas in enchanting mails, compared to 10-15/60 for every other craft does imply that it is bugged. Along with the fact that hireling mails have bugged in the past, AND that other people are noticing this, certainly makes a strong case that some people are in fact experiencing a bug with enchanter hireling mails.
Remember the bank bug that was affecting a small portion of people? Just because you are not personally experiencing the bug, does not mean that it isn't bugged.
Okay, you are starting to understand. The Kuta bug has nothing to do with RNG either...
You don't need to see server wide stats. In fact, server wide stats will tell you absolutely nothing. The fact that some people have good luck with Kuta tells you absolutely nothing (RNG as you said).
The fact that multiple people have gone months without getting a Kuta is the only relevant information in this thread. Since you clearly have difficulty grasping the issue, and have nothing to contribute to this thread, please stop polluting this thread with your pointless posts.
I feel like we are playing ping pong here. Ok show me evidence that the string of back luck is only the result of RNG. Until you can do that you have absolutely no way of saying it's not bugged.
Where is your proof there is no issue just because RNG is involved? RNG was involved when I got them almost daily for months, never went more than a few days, and that was when I only had one enchanting hireling now I have 3. So out of nowhere with three times the chance the RNG gods are just mad at me for months I guess. Many people in game have said they have not got them for over a month .. in fact the same exact month and I never heard anyone complain about this issue before that. Maybe it is just RNG affecting one component and a lot of people are having the same exact bad RNG luck all at the same time or maybe something has changed, and maybe it is only affecting certain people.
Where is your "proof" you keep asking for that nothing has changed?
Again, though, it's important to note that none of that was directed to you. It's directed towards the guy who is blindly claiming that it is definitely bugged, with absolutely no way of knowing that.
@Urquan he did prove it was bug by presenting statistical evidence. Legendary items in mails are NOT rare. As you see many people get then all the time. This person, and myself, and many others however have pointed out that they all stopped getting them withing the same time frame. Statistically that is improbable especially considering the high drop rate of Kuta before the bug.
Added to this there is the precedence of this bug happening in the past in a similar fashion. You're just plain wrong here and your continued presence adds nothing to a thread that doesn't concern you.
ehh I just made it to the second page before I responded and was annoyed by your continued responses in the face of contrary evidence(at the time). I never check the general forums, so when I accidentally clicked it on my tablet and saw this thread at the top I dove right in ( =
The other troll that picked up after you was far worse but I saw by then that the bug was acknowledged by ESO so had no desire to take it up with him.
Any time RNG is involved, the only way you can possibly tell if it's working properly is by being able to see under the hood and look at the the stats for everyone. There was not (and could not be) any evidence provided by players in this thread that proved anything at all. Full stop, end of story. As I've maintained the entire time, the only people who could ever tell for sure if this is bugged are ZOS, because they're the only ones who could look at server stats, see who has and hasn't been getting kuta, and see if there's a commonality between the people who aren't getting them (which would be the only way to have evidence that it's a bug), or if they just have bad luck. If you worked in software development you would understand this.
Any other weeks-old posts of mine that you want to dredge up for the purposes of calling me a troll? Any other threads that I haven't visited in weeks that you want to tell me to get out of? Or are you done making yourself look foolish for a while?
I paid plenty of attention. I read the first page, I read the second page. I saw you spouting the same nonsense you are now, trying to defend an unjustifiable position. Just because I decided not to read all 7 pages of activity before posting doesn't mean I'm going off "half-cocked".
If you like most of us here had any idea how hirelings worked, you wouldn't have posted here but you had to make your ignorance plain by disagreeing with the OP despite the fact he was right and put down enough information showing that he was right.
Looking at serverwide stats means *nothing*. Statistically Kuta have a very high drop rate as evidenced by all of the other people here who have been and are still getting them. To go multiple *months* without seeing a single one is statistical improbability, especially when the first few months he said he got 20 or so. It has nothing to do with *luck* and if you ever took a course in statistics (Which coincidentally I've taken several) you'd know that.
As I mentioned in my post I've got probably 80 Kuta from all of my Hirelings....and then none...for 45-50 days. That's not bad luck...that's called a bug. I'd trust Zenimax to recognize a bug and fix it on their own about as much as I'd trust you to put forth a convincing argument, which is to say not at all.
Permanently banned from the forums for displaying dissent: ESO - The Year Behind
Too Much Bolt Escape - banned for "hacking the game to create movement not otherwise permitted by in game mechanics."
Ezareth VR16 AD Sorc - Rank 36 - Axe NA
Ezareth-Ali VR16 DC NB - Rank 20 - Chillrend NA
Ezareth PvP on Youtube1 -
UrQuan✭✭✭✭✭
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Wait, do you honestly think that taking a course (or several) in statistics means that you can come to definitive conclusions on a RNG based on a handful of cherry-picked examples which can't be verified in any way? Really? Wow.ezareth_ESO wrote: »Looking at serverwide stats means *nothing*. Statistically Kuta have a very high drop rate as evidenced by all of the other people here who have been and are still getting them. To go multiple *months* without seeing a single one is statistical improbability, especially when the first few months he said he got 20 or so. It has nothing to do with *luck* and if you ever took a course in statistics (Which coincidentally I've taken several) you'd know that.
Edit: OK, since I'm feeling generous tonight, allow me to educate you on how you actually gather evidence that a mechanic involving RNG is or isn't bugged (using this kuta thing as a specific example.
First you select a period of time look at. This period of time has to be long enough to be able to see patterns. In this case 2 months is probably fine. In this case, as characters could add the hireling passive at any point in time, and as players don't always log on often enough to get hireling deliveries as often as they are entitled to them, you also have to determine a minimum number of deliveries over that period for a particular character's deliveries to be included in your analysis.
Next you figure out what is an acceptable average deviation from the programmed drop rate (the shorter the period of time the larger this acceptable average deviation will be).
Then you query the DB to find all of the characters with hirelings whose kuta drops have been outside that acceptable deviation over that period of time (characters who don't meet your requirements for minimum # of deliveries in that period of time must be left out of this query as well).
Next you look at the results and see if it's statistically significant. If it is, you look for commonalities between the ones that fall outside of your deviation (this could be literally anything that is stored in the DB - it could be the date when the hireling was added, it could be a different skill that the characters have in common, it could be pretty much anything). That's the point where you know if it's a bug or not. Not before.
Now, would you care to explain how you did your analysis based on your statistics courses and the couple of pieces of anecdotal evidence that have been presented in this thread?Edited by UrQuan on September 8, 2014 4:50AM
Someone stole my sweetrollCaius Drusus Imperial DK (DC)
Bragg Ironhand Orc Temp (DC)
Neesha Stalks-Shadows Argonian NB (EP)
Falidir Altmer Sorcr (AD)
J'zharka Khajiit NB (AD)Isabeau Runeseer Breton Sorc (DC)
Fevassa Dunmer DK (EP)
Manut Redguard Temp (AD)
Tylera the Summoner Altmer Sorc (EP)
Svari Snake-Blood Nord DK (AD)Ashlyn D'Elyse Breton NB (EP)
Filindria Bosmer Temp (DC)
Vigbjorn the Wanderer Nord Warden (EP)
Hrokki Winterborn Breton Warden (DC)
Basks-in-the-Sunshine Argonian Temp0 -
Obsidian3✭✭✭✭I get one Kuta every other week from my hireling (only have one.) I did get two Kuta's on back to back days farming nodes, haven't gotten one since and that was more than a month ago.
Now Tempering Alloy with 5 hirelings I average about two a month, so obviously it's all random.0 -
kitsinni✭✭✭✭✭
Ah, I see. So first you go off half-cocked without paying any attention to what's going on or, oh I don't know, reading the actual thread that you're posting in. And now you're saying that I'm a troll because I correctly argued that anecdotes from a handful of people out of many thousands isn't evidence of anything, and that the only people who would be able to produce any evidence of it being a bug are ZOS?ezareth_ESO wrote: »
My "continued presence" in this thread you say @ezareth_ESO? Interesting. The last time I even looked at this thread before I got a notification that you had mentioned me in it was when I posted the very post you quoted. Hmm, did you happen to notice the date on that? In case you didn't notice, the date on that post was August 20th, back on page 2 of a thread that is now 7 pages long. Please tell me more about my "continued presence" in a thread that I haven't bothered looking at in 18 days...ezareth_ESO wrote: »
OK, seriously? I was directly addressing the person who claimed in no uncertain terms that it is bugged. Something that he has absolutely no possible way of knowing. For mechanics that don't involve RNG it's easy to tell if they're bugged - even if the bug is only affecting some people and not others. For mechanics that do involve RNG it's impossible to tell without being able to see the full server stats. He's claiming that it's bugged, so he needs to back that up, and he can't. I only responded to his unsupportable claim, therefore the burden of proof is entirely on him.
Really. Show me evidence that proves that you're not just having a string of bad luck with RNG. Until you can do that (and you can't do that without server-wide stats that show what everyone is getting from their hirelings), you have absolutely no way of saying that it's bugged. That's the nature of any mechanic that relies on RNG. Just because you don't understand that doesn't mean that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »
The bank bug had nothing to do with RNG. Your anecdote, and those of some other people, doesn't imply anything about it being bugged. It implies you've had bad luck. Others have reported having abnormally good luck with Kuta. That doesn't imply that it's bugged either. That implies they've had good luck. Is it possible that it's bugged? Sure. Without seeing server-wide stats, however, there's absolutely no evidence of that. That's the nature of RNG - unless you see the whole picture there's no way of saying that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »
No, it's not bugged. It's a random number generator. Sometimes the RNG gods look favorably on you, and sometimes they don't. When you have a streak of bad luck it doesn't mean that it's bugged.NerfEverything wrote: »Haven't seen one in weeks from my maxed enchanting hireling. On the other hand, my clothing/blacksmith/woodworking hirelings bring at least one yellow a week.
Seems that this is bugged.
Yeah yeah RNG blah blah blah. 0/60 Kutas in enchanting mails, compared to 10-15/60 for every other craft does imply that it is bugged. Along with the fact that hireling mails have bugged in the past, AND that other people are noticing this, certainly makes a strong case that some people are in fact experiencing a bug with enchanter hireling mails.
Remember the bank bug that was affecting a small portion of people? Just because you are not personally experiencing the bug, does not mean that it isn't bugged.
Okay, you are starting to understand. The Kuta bug has nothing to do with RNG either...
You don't need to see server wide stats. In fact, server wide stats will tell you absolutely nothing. The fact that some people have good luck with Kuta tells you absolutely nothing (RNG as you said).
The fact that multiple people have gone months without getting a Kuta is the only relevant information in this thread. Since you clearly have difficulty grasping the issue, and have nothing to contribute to this thread, please stop polluting this thread with your pointless posts.
I feel like we are playing ping pong here. Ok show me evidence that the string of back luck is only the result of RNG. Until you can do that you have absolutely no way of saying it's not bugged.
Where is your proof there is no issue just because RNG is involved? RNG was involved when I got them almost daily for months, never went more than a few days, and that was when I only had one enchanting hireling now I have 3. So out of nowhere with three times the chance the RNG gods are just mad at me for months I guess. Many people in game have said they have not got them for over a month .. in fact the same exact month and I never heard anyone complain about this issue before that. Maybe it is just RNG affecting one component and a lot of people are having the same exact bad RNG luck all at the same time or maybe something has changed, and maybe it is only affecting certain people.
Where is your "proof" you keep asking for that nothing has changed?
Again, though, it's important to note that none of that was directed to you. It's directed towards the guy who is blindly claiming that it is definitely bugged, with absolutely no way of knowing that.
@Urquan he did prove it was bug by presenting statistical evidence. Legendary items in mails are NOT rare. As you see many people get then all the time. This person, and myself, and many others however have pointed out that they all stopped getting them withing the same time frame. Statistically that is improbable especially considering the high drop rate of Kuta before the bug.
Added to this there is the precedence of this bug happening in the past in a similar fashion. You're just plain wrong here and your continued presence adds nothing to a thread that doesn't concern you.
ehh I just made it to the second page before I responded and was annoyed by your continued responses in the face of contrary evidence(at the time). I never check the general forums, so when I accidentally clicked it on my tablet and saw this thread at the top I dove right in ( =
The other troll that picked up after you was far worse but I saw by then that the bug was acknowledged by ESO so had no desire to take it up with him.
Any time RNG is involved, the only way you can possibly tell if it's working properly is by being able to see under the hood and look at the the stats for everyone. There was not (and could not be) any evidence provided by players in this thread that proved anything at all. Full stop, end of story. As I've maintained the entire time, the only people who could ever tell for sure if this is bugged are ZOS, because they're the only ones who could look at server stats, see who has and hasn't been getting kuta, and see if there's a commonality between the people who aren't getting them (which would be the only way to have evidence that it's a bug), or if they just have bad luck. If you worked in software development you would understand this.
Any other weeks-old posts of mine that you want to dredge up for the purposes of calling me a troll? Any other threads that I haven't visited in weeks that you want to tell me to get out of? Or are you done making yourself look foolish for a while?
When RNG is involved the only way you can prove it isn't just luck is by access to the code, but you can know it is off through observation given enough time. There is a big distinction between prove and know. Of course the only way to prove it is to see the code and see the error in the code, but you don't need proof in order to see a problem you just don't have empirical evidence.
One person can trend pretty far off the normal RNG range on rare occasion, but only so far will actually happen. RNG isn't really random it is a set parameter range. When a group of people start to trend far outside the normal parameter range starting the same time that is statistically near impossible to happen. In fact it is the way RNG is programmed that shows that this is nearly impossible, it isn't even really random it is a computer program setting parameters. Large groups won't ever trend far outside those parameters even though it is statistically possible. When a group that has trended far outside the RNG parameter range all find the same way to way to get back to within the normal parameter range would be pretty much statistically impossible, it would be more likely to flip a coin 1000 and get all heads. That is the normal RNG argument, you can flip a coin 1000 times and get heads every times, show me a single time in history that has happened!
TL:DR For empirical proof of course you would need the code to show the exact error. To know there is an issue when a group all trends outside the normal range of RNG at the same exact period, all make one change and all instantly are back in the normal RNG range the statistical chance of that happening because of RNG is not worth mentioning.1 -
Simstar✭@urquan, please check out my post in below thread. It is data from 260 hireling mails collected within the past 1½ month.
http://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/discussion/128060/my-enchanter-hirelings-never-bring-kutas-ever/p30 -
Nestor✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭OK, I just put points into an Enchanting Hireling, for the first time this weekend. I have 2 points in Hireling, and 2 points in Extraction. First email had a Kuta, second Email had a Rekuta (Purple One). So, If this is the trend, then I am happy with it.Enjoy the game, life is what you really want to be worried about.
PakKat "Everything was going well, until I died"
Gary Gravestink "I am glad you died, I needed the help"0
