The Elder Scrolls Online

Maintenance for the week of December 8:
• [COMPLETE] ESO Store and Account System for maintenance – December 10, 9:00AM EST (14:00 UTC) - 12:00PM EST (17:00 UTC)

Pickpocket chances feel off

Leave a Reply
  • Gabriel_H
    Gabriel_H
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭
    scrappy1342 wrote: »
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    scrappy1342 wrote: »
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    scrappy1342 wrote: »
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    AngryPenguin wrote: »
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    Confirmation bias.

    No. It's not confirmation bias.

    It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

    Likely the bonus fell off just as the pick was taking place, or you were not fully hidden.

    not when the base npc (fisherman, workers, other types of lower class peasants...) has a 100% chance and the text is just changing between green and white "100%"

    Again, I have never seen this happen in thousands of picks. So, lets add some context:

    What race? (Could be a bug with the Khajiit passive on the 2nd pick of an Easy target)
    How often? (Could play into the racial passive)
    Is it always when "the text is just changing between green and white" (Could be a bug in the Bonus application/removal causing a recalc from the base amount before passives)

    none of this matters if it is 100% without the bonus. 100% should mean no chance of failure. even if the bonus falls off, it's still 100%

    All three of those things can affect the outcome, so of course they matter.

    if it is 100% WITHOUT THE BONUS, then no, there should be no chance of failure. it really doesn't matter whether it's a bug, rng, or a gremlin in the server pushing a button and laughing. 100% should mean 100%

    And identifying the problem helps solve it. The more information and context that you can give to ZOS the quicker it will be confirmed and/or fixed. So you can keep screaming it's 100% but without context you are shouting into a void.
    PC EU
    Never get involved in a land war in Asia - it's one of the classic blunders!
  • scrappy1342
    scrappy1342
    ✭✭✭✭
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    scrappy1342 wrote: »
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    scrappy1342 wrote: »
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    scrappy1342 wrote: »
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    AngryPenguin wrote: »
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    Confirmation bias.

    No. It's not confirmation bias.

    It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

    Likely the bonus fell off just as the pick was taking place, or you were not fully hidden.

    not when the base npc (fisherman, workers, other types of lower class peasants...) has a 100% chance and the text is just changing between green and white "100%"

    Again, I have never seen this happen in thousands of picks. So, lets add some context:

    What race? (Could be a bug with the Khajiit passive on the 2nd pick of an Easy target)
    How often? (Could play into the racial passive)
    Is it always when "the text is just changing between green and white" (Could be a bug in the Bonus application/removal causing a recalc from the base amount before passives)

    none of this matters if it is 100% without the bonus. 100% should mean no chance of failure. even if the bonus falls off, it's still 100%

    All three of those things can affect the outcome, so of course they matter.

    if it is 100% WITHOUT THE BONUS, then no, there should be no chance of failure. it really doesn't matter whether it's a bug, rng, or a gremlin in the server pushing a button and laughing. 100% should mean 100%

    And identifying the problem helps solve it. The more information and context that you can give to ZOS the quicker it will be confirmed and/or fixed. So you can keep screaming it's 100% but without context you are shouting into a void.

    not my job. they know it's an issue. it's been reported. honestly i'd rather they work on higher priority things than this. no one is screaming. simply trying to highlight things that you don't seem to be getting.

    not sure why you keep bringing up second pick and 95% chance. we have told you repeatedly that this happens on first pick with 100%
    Edited by scrappy1342 on November 14, 2025 9:02PM
    pcna
  • Gabriel_H
    Gabriel_H
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭
    scrappy1342 wrote: »
    not sure why you keep bringing up second pick and 95% chance. we have told you repeatedly that this happens on first pick with 100%

    Nope. You've told me it happens at 100%.

    If you have the Khajiit passive you'll see 100% on both the 1st and 2nd pick. Unless, after being caught, and making sure nobody else picks, you go back and do all 3 picks, you's have no idea if it was the 1st or 2nd.

    If it's happening without the Khajiit passive then that will be the 1st pick. There are two possible reasons for that:

    1) Light Fingers isn't being applied properly - Seems unlikely given this seems to be very infrequent
    2) The NPC is mislabelled in difficulty - It could be the NPC has 2 flags. One for the visual % and one for the calculation %. If it is flagged as easy for display, but medium for calculation that will cause this issue.

    If it's 2) then ZOS ain't going to be checking the flags of thousands of NPCs. You need to narrow it down.
    PC EU
    Never get involved in a land war in Asia - it's one of the classic blunders!
  • DenverRalphy
    DenverRalphy
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    DenverRalphy wrote: »
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    DenverRalphy wrote: »
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    CatoUnchained wrote: »
    Can confirm. When it says there is 100% (in green) pickpocket chance, it IS NOT 100% chance of success. The pickpocket can still fail even when it says 100% chance, regardless of race.

    When you go for the actual pick, there is a slight delay for the animation. The % disappears off screen, and in the small window the Bonus (Green) can fall off. That can cause a fail on Easy 2nd (if not a Khajiit) and 3rd picks and any picks on all other difficulties.

    And again, I've seen it happe when the chance is 100% regardless whether it's white (normal pick), or green (sweet spot pick).

    https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/8390540/#Comment_8390540

    Race is completely irrelevant. Why do you keep going there?

    If the chance is 100% with our without the sweet spot bonus, it doesn't matter which race you are. It's already 100% without the need for a racial bonus.

    Race isn't irrelevant. The maximum chance on the 2nd pick on easy difficulty without bonus is:

    95% for non Khajiit
    100% for Khahiit

    If tha passive isn't applying properly, it could explain what is happening.

    And again, just because the Bonus is showing does not mean it is still applied when the pick happens. When you E-key the % is no longer shown on the UI, but the pick happens after a short delay meaning there is a small window in which the bonus can still drop off. The pick chance is the % at the moment of the pick not when you press the E-Key.

    For the purpose of this topic race IS irrelevant. We're not talking about improving subsequent more difficult picks. We're talking about picks that are 100% both normal and sweet spot at the same time. If both conditions are at 100%, racial bonus will have zero effect on the outcome because the chance will be 100% regardless of which race.

    As a non-khajiit, on a slave npc in Vvardenfell both the 1st and 2nd pick can be 100% unadjusted without the green sweet spot bonus. If a pick fails on the 1st or 2nd pick (which does rarely happen), it's not because the sweet spot bonus dropped off a microsecond before the player clickied their button. Because even if that did happen, it's still going to register as a 100% chance.

    I don't know what part of that you simply just aren't understanding.
  • DenverRalphy
    DenverRalphy
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭
    Gabriel_H wrote: »
    scrappy1342 wrote: »
    not sure why you keep bringing up second pick and 95% chance. we have told you repeatedly that this happens on first pick with 100%

    If you have the Khajiit passive you'll see 100% on both the 1st and 2nd pick. Unless, after being caught, and making sure nobody else picks, you go back and do all 3 picks, you's have no idea if it was the 1st or 2nd.
    This is 100% unequivocally untrue. Picks are instanced to the player. Just like containers like backpacks, baskets, wardrobes, etc.. Another player picking the same npc/target has zero effect on your loot or success chances.

    That's a myth that's run rampant way too long. If I pick a target clean to empty pockets, another player can come up and pick their three attempts as well.

    Edited by DenverRalphy on November 14, 2025 9:25PM
  • Gabriel_H
    Gabriel_H
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭
    DenverRalphy wrote: »
    As a non-khajiit, on a slave npc in Vvardenfell both the 1st and 2nd pick can be 100% unadjusted without the green sweet spot bonus ... I don't know what part of that you simply just aren't understanding.

    No they can't be.

    Light Fingers Rank 4 gives you 50%.

    Easy Target Difficulty:
    1st Pick = 50% - 100% with LF4 and no sweet spot
    2nd Pick = 45% - 95% with LF4 and no sweet spot
    3rd Pick = 40% - 90% with LF4 and no sweet spot

    Non-Khajiit, Easy Target, 2nd Pick: writ5xu4ahra.png

    Edited by Gabriel_H on November 14, 2025 10:46PM
    PC EU
    Never get involved in a land war in Asia - it's one of the classic blunders!
  • Gabriel_H
    Gabriel_H
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭
    DenverRalphy wrote: »
    That's a myth that's run rampant way too long. If I pick a target clean to empty pockets, another player can come up and pick their three attempts as well.

    Actually, you'll never guess what ... there's a bug.
    PC EU
    Never get involved in a land war in Asia - it's one of the classic blunders!
Sign In or Register to comment.