Pickpocket chances feel off

Arvedia · November 13

Fellow thieves,

surely I’m not the only one that feels like there’s something wrong with the displayed pickpocket percent chances or with RNG itself. I fail 7 out of 10 times when the chances are above 50% - I don’t feel like that should be normal. It’s also not too uncommon that I fail at 95%, quite often at 75%, feels very irritating alltogether and isn’t really fun when I fail over and over again despite having a Khajiit with Light Fingers at rank 4. Have you experienced something similar?

DenverRalphy · November 13

ESO has a horrid RNG system that seems to be prone to run in streaks on a per-day, per-character basis. Some days one of your characters can't get a decent RNG roll no matter how many times they try. When I'm on one of my Thiefy toons, sometimes I know when to just not even bother when they consistently get caught on the easiest of marks. And astonishingly, it's actually possible to fail a 100% chance. Really rare, but it happens.

That's why I have a few different characters with Thiefy builds. So I can pick and choose which one has the better RNG for the day.

scrappy1342 · November 13

been going on for years. this is "normal" for eso chances. you'll get the same thing with breaking locks too. seems like sometimes i have a better chance at 50-60% than i do with 90% on locks LOL i've even managed to fail a couple pockets that i had 100% chance on. doesn't happen often. just a handful of times. all you can do is laugh and move on.

Gabriel_H · November 13

Confirmation bias.

AngryPenguin · November 13

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Confirmation bias.

No. It's not confirmation bias.

It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

Gabriel_H · November 13

AngryPenguin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Confirmation bias.

No. It's not confirmation bias.

It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

Likely the bonus fell off just as the pick was taking place, or you were not fully hidden.

Anumaril · November 13

Happens all the time to me too, the percentage definitely feels off. But I'm sure that's just the randomness not aligning with human expectations. It's the same way Apple Music had to change it's "random" shuffle setting to not actually be random in the code since people felt it wasn't random enough (e.g., you could theoretically get the same song back-to-back because that's always a random possibility).

ZOS could do something like that for the thieving % chances too, like if it's 95% then actually have it be 99% behind the scenes, etc. But they probably haven't done this for a reason.

Pcgamer · November 13

Arvedia wrote: »

Fellow thieves,

surely I’m not the only one that feels like there’s something wrong with the displayed pickpocket percent chances or with RNG itself. I fail 7 out of 10 times when the chances are above 50% - I don’t feel like that should be normal. It’s also not too uncommon that I fail at 95%, quite often at 75%, feels very irritating alltogether and isn’t really fun when I fail over and over again despite having a Khajiit with Light Fingers at rank 4. Have you experienced something similar?

I have everything possible on my khajiit to make her stealthy and all legerdemain skills maxed, in leather gear and I can only pickpocket successfully at 85% anything below that I get caught.

AngryPenguin · November 13

Gabriel_H wrote: »

AngryPenguin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Confirmation bias.

No. It's not confirmation bias.

It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

Likely the bonus fell off just as the pick was taking place, or you were not fully hidden.

No. It's a regular occurrence. Even when the game says you've got 100% pickpocket chance it's not actually 100%.

You've made it clear you're not familiar with this system in ESO.

Carcamongus · November 13

DenverRalphy wrote: »

ESO has a horrid RNG system that seems to be prone to run in streaks on a per-day, per-character basis. Some days one of your characters can't get a decent RNG roll no matter how many times they try. When I'm on one of my Thiefy toons, sometimes I know when to just not even bother when they consistently get caught on the easiest of marks. And astonishingly, it's actually possible to fail a 100% chance. Really rare, but it happens.

That's why I have a few different characters with Thiefy builds. So I can pick and choose which one has the better RNG for the day.

Random events tend to cluster instead of being spaced evenly, which is why we get the impression there are days RNGeesus is smiling upon us. If you can figure out what the day's cluster is, you can have an easier time stealing, hunting for antiquity leads, fishing, etc.

I can also confirm it's possible to fail a 100% chance. That was the sign my toon should've gone to law school instead.

Arvedia · November 13

Gabriel_H wrote: »

AngryPenguin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Confirmation bias.

No. It's not confirmation bias.

It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

Likely the bonus fell off just as the pick was taking place, or you were not fully hidden.

Getting caught has nothing to do with being successful at pickpocketing or not. Even if you get caught by someone else during the pickpocket, you'll still get your stolen item from that npc.

Gabriel_H · November 13

AngryPenguin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

AngryPenguin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Confirmation bias.

No. It's not confirmation bias.

It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

Likely the bonus fell off just as the pick was taking place, or you were not fully hidden.

No. It's a regular occurrence. Even when the game says you've got 100% pickpocket chance it's not actually 100%.

You've made it clear you're not familiar with this system in ESO.

Hence, confirmation bias.

I'm familiar enough with the system to have every Justice achievement, Larcenist achievement, and have my own addon that tracks NPC location, profession, pickpocket difficulty, current picks left. I have never had a pick fail at 100%.

DenverRalphy · November 13

Yes picks fail occasionally fail at 100%. I've had it fail when the mark is 100% even when white, and the mark is alone in a room with no witnesses. The servant up in the tower of Leyawiin castle, and the slave sweeping the walkway in Tel Aruhn.

It's rare. But it does happen.

Gabriel_H · November 13

DenverRalphy wrote: »

Yes picks fail occasionally fail at 100%. I've had it fail when the mark is 100% even when white, and the mark is alone in a room with no witnesses. The servant up in the tower of Leyawiin castle, and the slave sweeping the walkway in Tel Aruhn.

It's rare. But it does happen.

With or without Khajiit passive?

I ask because if it is with the passive and you have a 100% pick chance then that is the 2nd pick without bonus, and would be 95% for those without the passive and bonus.

I am not Khajiit, and I have never in the thousands of picks, had a pick fail at 100%. However, if it is happening at 100% without bonus, and the common factor is Khajiits, it may be the passive is showing in the chance but not being applied correctly to the calculation chance.

AngryPenguin · November 13

Gabriel_H wrote: »

AngryPenguin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

AngryPenguin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Confirmation bias.

No. It's not confirmation bias.

It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

Likely the bonus fell off just as the pick was taking place, or you were not fully hidden.

No. It's a regular occurrence. Even when the game says you've got 100% pickpocket chance it's not actually 100%.

You've made it clear you're not familiar with this system in ESO.

Hence, confirmation bias.

I'm familiar enough with the system to have every Justice achievement, Larcenist achievement, and have my own addon that tracks NPC location, profession, pickpocket difficulty, current picks left. I have never had a pick fail at 100%.

...on your part.

It's got nothing to do with race. 100% pickpocket chance is not guaranteed 100% success. Even at 100% there is a chance to fail the pickpocket. If you actually had the experience you claim to have you'd know this like those of us who have those achievements know. And I don't believe for a second you've written your own add on to do those things.

Gabriel_H · November 13

AngryPenguin wrote: »

It's got nothing to do with race.

Khajiit racial passive affects chance

AngryPenguin wrote: »

100% pickpocket chance is not guaranteed 100% success.

Never had an issue in thousands of picks. As I mentioned above, it may be the Khajiit passive isn't being applied.

AngryPenguin wrote: »

If you actually had the experience you claim to have you'd know this like those of us who have those achievements know.

All Justice Achievements completed

AngryPenguin wrote: »

And I don't believe for a second you've written your own add on to do those things.

Me selecting a target from a distance. Addon displays NPC profession and maximum %s accounting for Light Fingers, (Cutpurse if I had it) and Bonus, for each of the 3 available picks. Oh and the text is yellow because it's a medium difficulty pickpocket.

Me in close. Addon switches to show % chance without bonus and with bonus, as well as number of picks left

Me after a pick. Addon updates to show new %'s and number of picks left

I currently download the data to a spreadsheet for analysis, but I'm working on a framework for displaying it in game.

scrappy1342 · November 14

Gabriel_H wrote: »

AngryPenguin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Confirmation bias.

No. It's not confirmation bias.

It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

Likely the bonus fell off just as the pick was taking place, or you were not fully hidden.

not when the base npc (fisherman, workers, other types of lower class peasants...) has a 100% chance and the text is just changing between green and white "100%"

CatoUnchained · November 14

Can confirm. When it says there is 100% (in green) pickpocket chance, it IS NOT 100% chance of success. The pickpocket can still fail even when it says 100% chance, regardless of race.

whitecrow · November 14

I have never had a pickpocket fail at 100%.

Gabriel_H · November 14

scrappy1342 wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

AngryPenguin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Confirmation bias.

No. It's not confirmation bias.

It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

Likely the bonus fell off just as the pick was taking place, or you were not fully hidden.

not when the base npc (fisherman, workers, other types of lower class peasants...) has a 100% chance and the text is just changing between green and white "100%"

Again, I have never seen this happen in thousands of picks. So, lets add some context:

What race? (Could be a bug with the Khajiit passive on the 2nd pick of an Easy target)
How often? (Could play into the racial passive)
Is it always when "the text is just changing between green and white" (Could be a bug in the Bonus application/removal causing a recalc from the base amount before passives)

Gabriel_H · November 14

CatoUnchained wrote: »

Can confirm. When it says there is 100% (in green) pickpocket chance, it IS NOT 100% chance of success. The pickpocket can still fail even when it says 100% chance, regardless of race.

When you go for the actual pick, there is a slight delay for the animation. The % disappears off screen, and in the small window the Bonus (Green) can fall off. That can cause a fail on Easy 2nd (if not a Khajiit) and 3rd picks and any picks on all other difficulties.

Kartalin · November 14

We've been saying the rng feels off for a decade now. Maybe there's a hidden factor or variable they don't share with us, but it's always been off.

For instance we should never try to upgrade a piece of gear to gold with less than the full 8 mats needed. I've tried this in the past and the percentages just don't feel right. I realize it's a small sample size but I'm not about to waste the amount of coin necessary to test it further.

Forcing a simple lock is truly bizarre, because with a 90% chance of success I frequently find myself failing three times in succession. Like every 4th or 5th simple lock is like this. Failing 3 times with a 90% chance of success is a 1 in a 1000 occurrence, but here we just call it a day that ends in y.

DenverRalphy · November 14

Gabriel_H wrote: »

CatoUnchained wrote: »

Can confirm. When it says there is 100% (in green) pickpocket chance, it IS NOT 100% chance of success. The pickpocket can still fail even when it says 100% chance, regardless of race.

When you go for the actual pick, there is a slight delay for the animation. The % disappears off screen, and in the small window the Bonus (Green) can fall off. That can cause a fail on Easy 2nd (if not a Khajiit) and 3rd picks and any picks on all other difficulties.

And again, I've seen it happe when the chance is 100% regardless whether it's white (normal pick), or green (sweet spot pick).

Gabriel_H · November 14

DenverRalphy wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

CatoUnchained wrote: »

Can confirm. When it says there is 100% (in green) pickpocket chance, it IS NOT 100% chance of success. The pickpocket can still fail even when it says 100% chance, regardless of race.

When you go for the actual pick, there is a slight delay for the animation. The % disappears off screen, and in the small window the Bonus (Green) can fall off. That can cause a fail on Easy 2nd (if not a Khajiit) and 3rd picks and any picks on all other difficulties.

And again, I've seen it happe when the chance is 100% regardless whether it's white (normal pick), or green (sweet spot pick).

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/8390540/#Comment_8390540

scrappy1342 · November 14

Gabriel_H wrote: »

scrappy1342 wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

AngryPenguin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Confirmation bias.

No. It's not confirmation bias.

It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

Likely the bonus fell off just as the pick was taking place, or you were not fully hidden.

not when the base npc (fisherman, workers, other types of lower class peasants...) has a 100% chance and the text is just changing between green and white "100%"

Again, I have never seen this happen in thousands of picks. So, lets add some context:

What race? (Could be a bug with the Khajiit passive on the 2nd pick of an Easy target)
How often? (Could play into the racial passive)
Is it always when "the text is just changing between green and white" (Could be a bug in the Bonus application/removal causing a recalc from the base amount before passives)

none of this matters if it is 100% without the bonus. 100% should mean no chance of failure. even if the bonus falls off, it's still 100%

scrappy1342 · November 14

Gabriel_H wrote: »

I am not Khajiit, and I have never in the thousands of picks, had a pick fail at 100%. However, if it is happening at 100% without bonus, and the common factor is Khajiits, it may be the passive is showing in the chance but not being applied correctly to the calculation chance.

have had it happen with 100% chance without bonus on first pick with nord, breton and wood elf. there is no khajit bonus to not be applied. it is something wrong with their rng, just like the rest of the game. that's great that it hasn't happened to you in your thousands of picks. maybe it only happens to those of us with hundreds of thousands of picks

Gabriel_H · November 14

scrappy1342 wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

I am not Khajiit, and I have never in the thousands of picks, had a pick fail at 100%. However, if it is happening at 100% without bonus, and the common factor is Khajiits, it may be the passive is showing in the chance but not being applied correctly to the calculation chance.

have had it happen with 100% chance without bonus on first pick with nord, breton and wood elf. there is no khajit bonus to not be applied. it is something wrong with their rng, just like the rest of the game. that's great that it hasn't happened to you in your thousands of picks. maybe it only happens to those of us with hundreds of thousands of picks

It's not the RNG. There may be a bug in the calculation code, but that is not the RNG. This is what the RNG will probably look like:

#include <stdio.h>  
#include <stdlib.h>
#include <time.h>  

int main (pChance)
{
  int rNum;

  /* initialize random seed: */
  srand (time(NULL));

  /* generate secret number between 1 and 100: */
  rNum = rand() % 1 + 100;

  if (rNum > pChance) then return "fail"; else return "success"; end
}

That's literally what an RNG in code looks like.

There are several reasons it could be happening.

1) Bonus Falling off taking % below 100 at moment of pick
2) Passives not being applied
3) Bonus changing causes calculation to recalc from scratch - So 50% + Light Fingers + Cutpurse + Bonus if applicable. If that is happening the calculation could be picking up the wrong number, such as just the base percentage. ZOS would need to look at the calculation code and see how it operates.

Claiming it is the RNG is simple confirmation bias. ZOS are not going to pay attention to such things as it's a constant complaint from gamers without merit. If there is a problem you need to frame it differently.

Gabriel_H · November 14

scrappy1342 wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

scrappy1342 wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

AngryPenguin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Confirmation bias.

No. It's not confirmation bias.

It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

Likely the bonus fell off just as the pick was taking place, or you were not fully hidden.

not when the base npc (fisherman, workers, other types of lower class peasants...) has a 100% chance and the text is just changing between green and white "100%"

Again, I have never seen this happen in thousands of picks. So, lets add some context:

What race? (Could be a bug with the Khajiit passive on the 2nd pick of an Easy target)
How often? (Could play into the racial passive)
Is it always when "the text is just changing between green and white" (Could be a bug in the Bonus application/removal causing a recalc from the base amount before passives)

none of this matters if it is 100% without the bonus. 100% should mean no chance of failure. even if the bonus falls off, it's still 100%

All three of those things can affect the outcome, so of course they matter.

scrappy1342 · November 14

Gabriel_H wrote: »

scrappy1342 wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

scrappy1342 wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

AngryPenguin wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

Confirmation bias.

No. It's not confirmation bias.

It is not at all uncommon to get caught when the green 100% message is displaying to indicate a 100% chance of success. That's how off the RNG is in ESO.

Likely the bonus fell off just as the pick was taking place, or you were not fully hidden.

not when the base npc (fisherman, workers, other types of lower class peasants...) has a 100% chance and the text is just changing between green and white "100%"

Again, I have never seen this happen in thousands of picks. So, lets add some context:

What race? (Could be a bug with the Khajiit passive on the 2nd pick of an Easy target)
How often? (Could play into the racial passive)
Is it always when "the text is just changing between green and white" (Could be a bug in the Bonus application/removal causing a recalc from the base amount before passives)

none of this matters if it is 100% without the bonus. 100% should mean no chance of failure. even if the bonus falls off, it's still 100%

All three of those things can affect the outcome, so of course they matter.

if it is 100% WITHOUT THE BONUS, then no, there should be no chance of failure. it really doesn't matter whether it's a bug, rng, or a gremlin in the server pushing a button and laughing. 100% should mean 100%

DenverRalphy · November 14

Gabriel_H wrote: »

DenverRalphy wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

CatoUnchained wrote: »

Can confirm. When it says there is 100% (in green) pickpocket chance, it IS NOT 100% chance of success. The pickpocket can still fail even when it says 100% chance, regardless of race.

When you go for the actual pick, there is a slight delay for the animation. The % disappears off screen, and in the small window the Bonus (Green) can fall off. That can cause a fail on Easy 2nd (if not a Khajiit) and 3rd picks and any picks on all other difficulties.

And again, I've seen it happe when the chance is 100% regardless whether it's white (normal pick), or green (sweet spot pick).

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/8390540/#Comment_8390540

Race is completely irrelevant. Why do you keep going there?

If the chance is 100% with our without the sweet spot bonus, it doesn't matter which race you are. It's already 100% without the need for a racial bonus.

Gabriel_H · November 14

DenverRalphy wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

DenverRalphy wrote: »

Gabriel_H wrote: »

CatoUnchained wrote: »

Can confirm. When it says there is 100% (in green) pickpocket chance, it IS NOT 100% chance of success. The pickpocket can still fail even when it says 100% chance, regardless of race.

When you go for the actual pick, there is a slight delay for the animation. The % disappears off screen, and in the small window the Bonus (Green) can fall off. That can cause a fail on Easy 2nd (if not a Khajiit) and 3rd picks and any picks on all other difficulties.

And again, I've seen it happe when the chance is 100% regardless whether it's white (normal pick), or green (sweet spot pick).

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/8390540/#Comment_8390540

Race is completely irrelevant. Why do you keep going there?

If the chance is 100% with our without the sweet spot bonus, it doesn't matter which race you are. It's already 100% without the need for a racial bonus.

Race isn't irrelevant. The maximum chance on the 2nd pick on easy difficulty without bonus is:

95% for non Khajiit
100% for Khahiit

If tha passive isn't applying properly, it could explain what is happening.

And again, just because the Bonus is showing does not mean it is still applied when the pick happens. When you E-key the % is no longer shown on the UI, but the pick happens after a short delay meaning there is a small window in which the bonus can still drop off. The pick chance is the % at the moment of the pick not when you press the E-Key.