What’s a “fair” drop rate for an event style page?

spoqster

For the new style pages, there seems to be an excessive amount of complaints about the extremely low drop rate (both in-game as well as in the forums), while other players defend the drop rates and say "rare" drops are supposed to be hard to obtain. What do people think would be an acceptable drop rate for these kinds of rewards?

There are 5 items to get, so whatever number you pick below would have to be done 5 times. Also I'll ask for event completions, because it's not intuitive to calculate those from droprates.

How many times should a specific event (e.g. boss kill or dolmen) need to be done per style page per player?

Jaraal

Fair drop rate is 100% guaranteed with event tickets, if one is not able to beat the RNG aspect.

AnduinTryggva

50

I think 20 is too low as it should be "rare". So SOME effort needs to go in. As it is a special event item however it should not be as rare as to kill something 100 times minimum. So I've voted for 50. If it were really hard to kill (for instance if they had hidden it behind a trial end boss) I would have voted for 10.

tomofhyrule

For me, the biggest thing isn't the drop rate, it's the fact that the pages are bound. I'd be okay with super rare drops if we were able to buy/sell them from Guild stores.

Without that, then they really should have a better drop rate. I managed four of them so far, but all of that was essentially afk-ing at a boss/dolmen and doing work while I was waiting for the thing to come back up, and then being active for 30s before going right back to doing work. Unfortunately it's not as easy to do that with Geysers since they don't go in a set pattern (and the fact that I finished my work so now I need something else to do while I wait).

It does feel bad that I'm grinding geysers instead of going to do dailies and collect boxes though. And yes, I do think this is doing the opposite of hyping me up for the game.

EF321

100

Remember when people complained that spider parts drop too much?

colossalvoids

Depends on a goal and audience (hc vs casual), if it's fragments or not, if those tradeable etc.

In this exact case it's common enough to not be a rarity (which lap makes people participate, as chances are at their grasp), but it's grindy enough to turn away dads of ten children and seven wifes. It's in-between which probably a result of low time and thought investment.

TheMessengerOfDeath

The grind is the problem because there is nothing creative about doing a single thing repeatedly. That is unnecessary grind that could’ve instead been some engaging content.

People would’ve been happy with this instead

challenge 1 Kill all world bosses on morrowind
Challenge 2 complete all geysers in summer set
Challenge 3 Fish in 10 fishing holes or fish in 10 different zones.

You know do actual content and get rewards instead of this bs.

sharquez

20

TheMessengerOfDeath wrote: »

The grind is the problem because there is nothing creative about doing a single thing repeatedly. That is unnecessary grind that could’ve instead been some engaging content.

People would’ve been happy with this instead

challenge 1 Kill all world bosses on morrowind
Challenge 2 complete all geysers in summer set
Challenge 3 Fish in 10 fishing holes or fish in 10 different zones.

You know do actual content and get rewards instead of this bs.

THIS RIGHT HERE! PLEASE THIS! Don't make us fight against RNG. Let us engage with old content and earn stuff in a way that will let us have an end goal. People don't want to spend the hour or so they get of gaming a night on grinding.

Elsonso

For an event, (1) the event reward should be obtainable during the event, (2) it should be predictable how long it will take to get the reward, so no RNG, (3) players should not to have to spend the entire event trying to get the reward when they may have only a couple days, (4) it does not have to be "first time".

reazea

50

50 or less. No drop should take more than 50 tries for it.

FluffyBird

10 kills to get a drop

It's a time limited event and a big celebration.
Those who want to lose their last wits to endless grind can grind literally anything else and if someone is unhappy because someone else has what they have - maybe they need to stop being greedy gatekeepers.

Adremal

1 - Get drop on first kill

For an anniversary "reward", it should be 1. For stuff not presented as a reward, it could be as high as 10^30 for all I care.

CGPsaint

Comment deleted as my views and opinions are not relevant to ZoS.

Highlor3

20

AnduinTryggva wrote: »

I think 20 is too low as it should be "rare". So SOME effort needs to go in. As it is a special event item however it should not be as rare as to kill something 100 times minimum. So I've voted for 50. If it were really hard to kill (for instance if they had hidden it behind a trial end boss) I would have voted for 10.

Unless it's from an activity where ZOS set to drop 2 event-only style page, like Vvardenfell's WBs. The sweet spot for me would be between 20x to 35x.

virtus753

AnduinTryggva wrote: »

I think 20 is too low as it should be "rare". So SOME effort needs to go in. As it is a special event item however it should not be as rare as to kill something 100 times minimum. So I've voted for 50. If it were really hard to kill (for instance if they had hidden it behind a trial end boss) I would have voted for 10.

Effort is not the same as time, imo.

I would consider it very minimal effort to sit at a dolmen or geyser and hit one AoE per incursion to tag something(s) to get credit for the chest at the end. It just becomes more of a slog in terms of time the longer you have to wait for the pages to drop. Likewise with normal trials, which can be done with sub-50 characters without gear. They take longer than dolmens or geysers, but the drop chances at the end do not scale with your effort, such as preparation or amount of participation (CPM or other measurables).

Since the chance is the same on every loot pull regardless, I don't feel that a successful roll here properly rewards either time or effort. If I get a style page drop before someone else, it's because the numbers rolled in my favor, not because I made more attempts than the other person or tried harder on any given attempt. The only thing I can do to affect whether I get the drop is to decide whether to (continue to) roll the dice. The chance on each roll does not scale off anything within my power.

The world boss drops are murkier here, as you have to qualify for a chance in the first place. Coming with better gear and skills and increasing CPM can increase your chances at that chance, but it is still fundamentally a chance at loot in the first place if there are too many people around. There is no way to guarantee you will be within the cap of players to get loot. There is no way to guarantee you can do sufficient damage on a boss in the fraction of a second it has to take damage, even if you bring an endgame build. ZOS has no suggestions here to increase your chances at loot other than returning when it's less busy. The relevant help page offers no indication that increasing your damage will help and does not specify what "participation" it is that the loot cap actually rewards. That's another layer of chance and lack of clarity that I could definitely do without.

I do agree with you that there should be a failsafe regardless and that the longer it takes to get a chance, the fewer attempts should be required. But I also want to make a distinction between time and effort and what exactly is being rewarded here.

Blood_again

50

Depends on the content and reward.
If we talk about dungeon or trial that is not doable in 5-7 minutes, the rates would be different.
If the reward is fragmented, like 14-page motif or 7-part memento, the fragment rate should be way faster, while the total amount can be expanded. For example I would expect max 9-10 boss kills for a fragment of 7 part memento. As a result the total amount of 63-70 kills would be acceptable, not 50.

For standalone style from WB - 20 times is medium/easy, 50 is high enough to be rare.
If the counter went close to 100, that would be the moment I'd rather buy it from Impressario or another player if possible. Especially if this style is not the one in the event list.

Blood_again

50

The only thing I have to add.
The real drop rate usually doesn't work as "50 attempts is fair to get the reward". It works as "you have 2% probability that item drops on each attempt".

It these terms there is always a probability of M successfull drops of N attempts.
For example, according to binomial formula: for 2% probability of single drop there is ~36% of 0 success after 50 attempts.
Even for 10% of single drop there is still 0.5% of 0 success after 50 attempts. That means 5 players of 1000 won't get their drop after their fair 50 kills with this rate.
That's how unfair the fair probability works.

This problem is solvable by making the item tradeable or available at Impressario.
Another way is changing the algorithm with triggering drop after some attempts whatever rate it is.
But the classical drop by rate will make some % of players unhappy anyway. Sorry.

CGPsaint

Comment deleted as my views and opinions are not relevant to ZoS.

spoqster

20

Pretty perfect gauss distribution so far.

PunkAben

10 kills to get a drop

This is the most brain-dead event I ever have tried but I stopped after 20 hours of fishing and still no style page.

karthrag_inak

Fair is dropping some component pieces that must be combined to create desired item. You know, like everything else that is rare and/or valuable.

Devs can control how many pieces are required, and have one drop on every activity (i.e. dolmen). This way the player feels like they are making progress, and the devs can control how rare or common they want the item to be.

And nobody is frustrated and stressed by not knowing. Nobody likes presents that are empty.

kargen27

Any drop rate is fair so long as it is equal for all players. If some players had a 1% chance and some a 2% chance that would not be fair.
To bad they can't increase odds the more you try. So players who have fished under 50 holes have 1% chance, 100 holes 2% chance, 150 holes 3% and on.
I have no idea what the real numbers are so these numbers I used mean nothing.

spartaxoxo

20

I voted for 20 but that seems a little low but closer to correct for bound items. 50 feels too high however. I'd probably do like 30 kills because that's a few hours.

I'm guessing the boss respawn rate is every 10 minutes based off Google.

This would mean you can get 6 kills an hour. 20 kills is a bit over 3 hours. 30 kills would represent 5 hours of gameplay assuming you got to loot it every time and the boss does spawn around every 10 minutes

5 hours represents one day of try hard grinding or a few hours over the weekend, or perhaps 1 hour each weekday. That seems an appropriate time investment for a limited drop.

I wouldn't have a problem with lower drop rates if the item was unbound because then you could just buy it.

Necrotech_Master

spartaxoxo wrote: »

I voted for 20 but that seems a little low but closer to correct for bound items. 50 feels too high however. I'd probably do like 30 kills because that's a few hours.

I'm guessing the boss respawn rate is every 10 minutes based off Google.

This would mean you can get 6 kills an hour. 20 kills is a bit over 3 hours. 30 kills would represent 5 hours of gameplay assuming you got to loot it every time and the boss does spawn around every 10 minutes

5 hours represents one day of try hard grinding or a few hours over the weekend, or perhaps 1 hour each weekday. That seems an appropriate time investment for a limited drop.

I wouldn't have a problem with lower drop rates if the item was unbound because then you could just buy it.

when i was camping vvardenfell WBs, it felt like the boss respawn was closer to 5 minutes or so, definitely not 10

at 5 min respawns, thats 12 bosses per hour

though you can only get boss loot every 3 minutes anyway, so the best rate that you can get boss loot is 20 times per hour

virtus753

Necrotech_Master wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

I voted for 20 but that seems a little low but closer to correct for bound items. 50 feels too high however. I'd probably do like 30 kills because that's a few hours.

I'm guessing the boss respawn rate is every 10 minutes based off Google.

This would mean you can get 6 kills an hour. 20 kills is a bit over 3 hours. 30 kills would represent 5 hours of gameplay assuming you got to loot it every time and the boss does spawn around every 10 minutes

5 hours represents one day of try hard grinding or a few hours over the weekend, or perhaps 1 hour each weekday. That seems an appropriate time investment for a limited drop.

I wouldn't have a problem with lower drop rates if the item was unbound because then you could just buy it.

when i was camping vvardenfell WBs, it felt like the boss respawn was closer to 5 minutes or so, definitely not 10

at 5 min respawns, thats 12 bosses per hour

though you can only get boss loot every 3 minutes anyway, so the best rate that you can get boss loot is 20 times per hour

Yes, boss respawn timer is 5 minutes and 6-7 seconds. It's been timed by certain players, including one who made an add-on to track said timer. I also camped these and it was 5 minutes like clockwork every time.

spartaxoxo

20

virtus753 wrote: »

Necrotech_Master wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

I voted for 20 but that seems a little low but closer to correct for bound items. 50 feels too high however. I'd probably do like 30 kills because that's a few hours.

I'm guessing the boss respawn rate is every 10 minutes based off Google.

This would mean you can get 6 kills an hour. 20 kills is a bit over 3 hours. 30 kills would represent 5 hours of gameplay assuming you got to loot it every time and the boss does spawn around every 10 minutes

5 hours represents one day of try hard grinding or a few hours over the weekend, or perhaps 1 hour each weekday. That seems an appropriate time investment for a limited drop.

I wouldn't have a problem with lower drop rates if the item was unbound because then you could just buy it.

when i was camping vvardenfell WBs, it felt like the boss respawn was closer to 5 minutes or so, definitely not 10

at 5 min respawns, thats 12 bosses per hour

though you can only get boss loot every 3 minutes anyway, so the best rate that you can get boss loot is 20 times per hour

Yes, boss respawn timer is 5 minutes and 6-7 seconds. It's been timed by certain players, including one who made an add-on to track said timer. I also camped these and it was 5 minutes like clockwork every time.

Good to know! So that's about 11 bosses an hour (accounting for that extra time means less than 12 bosses).

If I want it to take 3-5 hours on average, that would be 33-55 times.

Hapexamendios

50

I would be happy with a range of 30-50 with the RNG scaling up from really low to a max 25% with each completion.

master_vanargand

20

MMORPG game creators have long had a habit of trying to make players suffer pointlessly.
That's the reason why MMORPG have declined as a game genre.
If the real world causes us suffering, who wants to suffer even more in the virtual world?
Game creators must never forget that our job is to creat entertainment that entertains people.

MidniteOwl1913

50

I hope that the OP is talking about the median drop rate. There will be the usual bell curve with some players getting it after one try some maybe never. I don't know 50 might be too high, 20 is to low 30 seems about right to me. But it's not just the low drop rate. It's the low drop rate and the limited time frame.

Many players have a limited number of hours a day to play so with only 20 days to obtain the item, some will not succeed.

For instance, if you only have 2 hours to play a day in total that 40 hours divided by 5, 8 hours per item if grind for event items is all you do for that time. I believe many players who have gotten all the items have put in more time than that.

The crowds don't help either and with the drop rate so low they aren't really diminishing much either.

o_Primate_o

100

TheMessengerOfDeath wrote: »

The grind is the problem because there is nothing creative about doing a single thing repeatedly. That is unnecessary grind that could’ve instead been some engaging content.

People would’ve been happy with this instead

challenge 1 Kill all world bosses on morrowind
Challenge 2 complete all geysers in summer set
Challenge 3 Fish in 10 fishing holes or fish in 10 different zones.

You know do actual content and get rewards instead of this bs.

Even if your suggested challenges were ten times harder, they would still be worth it.

Better yet, for each member in your group, reduce number to complete by 1%

Treeshka

Event style pages should easily be acquired by playing casually.

In this matter playing casually is a very subjective topic and changes from people to people, but there must be a consensus or a data set that would make developers designate what is casual play. Then according to that, a drop rate can be set for each page.