Is ESO going into "Maintenance" mode soon?

SaffronCitrusflower

spartaxoxo wrote: »

SizanLopkniht wrote: »

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

Jaraal wrote: »

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

the most played MMO in the world

https://steamdb.info/graph/?category=20

This means nothing to me as I, and the vast majority of pop, play on PC through the Bethesda launcher.

True. But ZOS will never post any statistics on the player population. While steam does, so those are the numbers we have to work with . A poll elsewhere on the forum showed that roughly 1/3rd of players play through steam, so steam trends do include a large enough sample of the player base to draw accurate conclusions from.

You can't just go by population size, you also have to have a non- biased sample, generally best with a random sample of all the population groups. Given that Steam has more competition available than say XBOX or PS, it's very plausible and even likely that a Steam player is more likely to leave for a different MMO than XBOX or PS player, for example. I think it's likely that other populations also saw a decrease too, but probably not on the same level as Steam.

The poster I quoted was speaking specifically about PC players, as was the poll asking if you play through steam or not.

opalcity

SizanLopkniht wrote: »

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

Jaraal wrote: »

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

the most played MMO in the world

https://steamdb.info/graph/?category=20

This means nothing to me as I, and the vast majority of pop, play on PC through the Bethesda launcher.

True. But ZOS will never post any statistics on the player population. While steam does, so those are the numbers we have to work with . A poll elsewhere on the forum showed that roughly 1/3rd of players play through steam, so steam trends do include a large enough sample of the player base to draw accurate conclusions from.

That poll is hardly a reliable source. It shows that roughly 1/3 of players WHO COME TO THE GENERAL FORUM, play through Steam.

Plus less than 500 people took part in that poll, which is hardly a representative sample when you consider that the estimated player base runs into the millions.

Ghaleb

I see a lot of people arguing against Steam as a reliable indicator.

Sure, it’s not perfect. But statistically it remains a decent indicator. If you think differently, please elaborate on the reasoning behind, why a chart representing ~20k players is not statistically relevant as a general trend indicator?

But if all of you against using Steam can provide a better metric which gives a semi-reliable overview, I am all for it. I am not hellbent on using Steam. But as ZoS is not publishing numbers, what else is there?

And arguing that Steam players are not representative as they can quickly wander off to other games: I’d assume that the vast majority of people, playing ESO via the standalone-client (like me) also have Steam installed.

So if I click in my start menu on A or on B does not add a sufficient entry barrier. In the end we are not talking iOS vs Android here.

INM

opalcity wrote: »

True. But ZOS will never post any statistics on the player population. While steam does, so those are the numbers we have to work with . A poll elsewhere on the forum showed that roughly 1/3rd of players play through steam, so steam trends do include a large enough sample of the player base to draw accurate conclusions from.

That poll is hardly a reliable source. It shows that roughly 1/3 of players WHO COME TO THE GENERAL FORUM, play through Steam.

Plus less than 500 people took part in that poll, which is hardly a representative sample when you consider that the estimated player base runs into the millions.

[/quote]

The sample error at this size is miniscule, also i haven't seen any polls which show that only few percent are using Steam, more often it's in the range of 35/65 on any side.
For example:
https://www.reddit.com/r/elderscrollsonline/comments/wlldl6/pc_player_poll/

I'm confident enough to say that "only a small minority is playing through Steam '' is pure bs and you should meet the reality already.

Seminolegirl1992

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Seminolegirl1992 wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Arthtur wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Arthtur wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

martinhpb16_ESO wrote: »

Maybe not maintenance mode but Steadyeddy makes some really incisive points here about the decline of endgame

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgidwlwpJBE

A lot of endgamers will hate me for saying it, but I think a major issue is the normal vet is too hard on a lot of the endgame trials, which demotivates people from truly trying before they start leading to an unhealthy rate of replacement. A lot of games I've played there was a PUG scene for this stuff. PUGS were garbage and vast majority of the the players who did them preferred raids. But, it was something that decently skilled people could stay up late with some cans of red bull to try and get done. Sometimes they succeeded and sometimes they fell apart. In another game I played I'd estimate the top 10% of players did them and the top 1% we're good enough to do leaderboards and sell carries and the likes. The equivalent to being done hard modes in this game.

Vet trials arent that hard. However... Ppl in this game have sooooo much problems with any mechanics. I cant tell how many times group was struggling just because 1 player didnt know anything and was wiping the group all the time.

You and your friend might be able to do it, but it's not everyone, it's most that cannot hit that kind of dps. It's like 1% of the playerbase. Top 10% is probably at like 50k DPS or something much lower than is standard for trials. But far, far more than the companions, which are tuned around the average damage output of the playerbase.

Thanks for not reading my entire post:
"And lets not start about that not everyone isn't able to it because of real life stuff. While

I did read the whole thing. I didn't respond because it's not true. Plenty of people hit like 50k on heavy attack builds. That is simply not the case that everyone can. The devs have flat out stated that a lot of people ARE trying and hitting walls and U35 was meant to (but failed catastrophically obviously) to target that issue.

You and your friend don't represent the playerbase at large. It's purely anecdotal. The numbers and the dev statements and constant massive overhauls trying to tackle these walls speak for the playerbase at large, and it's not happening. Most people cannot hit those numbers.

I think it's largely because the game fails to teach players how to actually play their game more effectively, so unless players are interested in seeking build and parse guides, they will continue to hit walls as you said.

Even if they do seek those out, they can find themselves running into trouble on that end, as they may have trouble getting the timing of things down.

Indeed

Ashtaris

Although ESO might not be in maintenance mode, it’s rather obvious that they don’t spend the resources on the game they once did, both in development and gameplay. From ZOS’s hiring announcements over the last couple of years, there are indications that they are working on another MMO of some type, and I don’t believe it’s ESO 2.0. And that’s to be expected. For them to make money, they need to invest in new projects. So I’m sure some of the staff are now working in the new MMO or transferred to work on the single player Elder Scrolls VI.

Like others have pointed out, there have been no new classes, races, or weapon skills for about the last two years. The last really good chapter, in my opinion, was Elsweyr. Everything since then has been mediocre. Both the wife and I noticed in the current High Isle event, the player participation wasn’t nearly as high as we expected it to be. Now granted, that could be due to instancing, but it also could be just a lack of player interest.

jad11mumbler

Ashtaris wrote: »

Like others have pointed out, there have been no new classes, races, or weapon skills for about the last two years. The last really good chapter, in my opinion, was Elsweyr. Everything since then has been mediocre. So the resources that ZOS once invested in the game are just not there anymore, and probably won’t be again.

Agreed. Sadly ESO has already peaked years ago.
Maintenance mode or not, it's downhill from here.

I won't blame the actual Devs, but the business side / management put this into Maintenance mode years ago. Now the devs are just doing the best with what they have.


I wouldn't be surprised if the money side expected it to be as successful as Skyrim, and got disappointed when it wasn't.
The devs would probably tell us this themselves, if they weren't all under an NDA and/or wouldn't lose their jobs for doing so.

spartaxoxo

ESO is one of the most profitable games on Steam right now. And while we can't know what's the case on consoles, we can guess that it's likely that it's even more profitable on console due to lack of competition and similar player sizes (devs have said in the past that the size of the playerbases are roughly equal).

SaffronCitrusflower

spartaxoxo wrote: »

ESO is one of the most profitable games on Steam right now. And while we can't know what's the case on consoles, we can guess that it's likely that it's even more profitable on console due to lack of competition and similar player sizes (devs have said in the past that the size of the playerbases are roughly equal).

You have repeatedly stated that we can't rely on steam charts to determine the trends in the number of people playing ESO. But now you're stating that we can rely on steam for other types of data?

Tandor

SizanLopkniht wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

ESO is one of the most profitable games on Steam right now. And while we can't know what's the case on consoles, we can guess that it's likely that it's even more profitable on console due to lack of competition and similar player sizes (devs have said in the past that the size of the playerbases are roughly equal).

You have repeatedly stated that we can't rely on steam charts to determine the trends in the number of people playing ESO. But now you're stating that we can rely on steam for other types of data?

Surely it's the case that we know that ESO is one of the most successful games on Steam, but we don't know what proportion of ESO players are playing it through Steam. Therefore the Steam figures tell us what is happening on Steam, but not in a way that we can then use to extrapolate to tell us what is happening elsewhere on PC as well as on the two console platforms.

DrNukenstein

No way, it's still in Alpha

spartaxoxo

SizanLopkniht wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

ESO is one of the most profitable games on Steam right now. And while we can't know what's the case on consoles, we can guess that it's likely that it's even more profitable on console due to lack of competition and similar player sizes (devs have said in the past that the size of the playerbases are roughly equal).

You have repeatedly stated that we can't rely on steam charts to determine the trends in the number of people playing ESO. But now you're stating that we can rely on steam for other types of data?

You can use Steam charts to reliably tell us what is going on Steam. You can't necessarily extrapolate to the rest of the playerbase, especially console. We should be aware of potential biases of the Steam population, such as competing services being more plentiful on Steam than on Console. We can make guesses based off what we do know about what's happening on other services such knowing console has a similar number of players as PC (old dev statement on a stream) and less competing services.

Generally speaking, when there is less competition, individual games will take up a bigger slice of market share than when competition is plentiful. Since there are less MMOs on console, we can guess that console users will be less likely to switch to a competiting MMO and that ESO will eat up more of the MMO money console consumers spent on MMOs than PC. However, we cannot know for sure as we lack the data to confirm this guess.

jad11mumbler

spartaxoxo wrote: »

ESO is one of the most profitable games on Steam right now.

Sure as Oblivion doesn't feel like it is with what the devs do in return.

spartaxoxo

jad11mumbler wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

ESO is one of the most profitable games on Steam right now.

Sure as Oblivion doesn't feel like it is with what the devs do in return.

Yeah. Crazy thing is actually a top 20 game not even just on the top 100 list. And it's been there the second longest, with most games on that list there for significantly less time. Only Counterstrike beats it in terms of age.

https://store.steampowered.com/charts/topsellers/US/2022-9-27

Jaraal

Tandor wrote: »

SizanLopkniht wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

ESO is one of the most profitable games on Steam right now. And while we can't know what's the case on consoles, we can guess that it's likely that it's even more profitable on console due to lack of competition and similar player sizes (devs have said in the past that the size of the playerbases are roughly equal).

You have repeatedly stated that we can't rely on steam charts to determine the trends in the number of people playing ESO. But now you're stating that we can rely on steam for other types of data?

Surely it's the case that we know that ESO is one of the most successful games on Steam, but we don't know what proportion of ESO players are playing it through Steam. Therefore the Steam figures tell us what is happening on Steam, but not in a way that we can then use to extrapolate to tell us what is happening elsewhere on PC as well as on the two console platforms.

Another good indicator of game health is forum participation. Before Update 35, the forums were jumping with new posts. Now, the front page can go a day or two without new posts dropping to page two. It’s as if many people have lost interest, or just flat out stopped caring. It could also be a reflection of folks getting tired of voicing their concerns, and being chronically ignored.

Forum participation is certainly something that can be tracked with accuracy.

Dr_Con

spartaxoxo wrote: »

jad11mumbler wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

ESO is one of the most profitable games on Steam right now.

Sure as Oblivion doesn't feel like it is with what the devs do in return.

Yeah. Crazy thing is actually a top 20 game not even just on the top 100 list. And it's been there the second longest, with most games on that list there for significantly less time. Only Counterstrike beats it in terms of age.

https://store.steampowered.com/charts/topsellers/US/2022-9-27

it went down a rank! time to make a 5 page long post about how ESO is dying!

SirAxen

spartaxoxo wrote: »

adriant1978 wrote: »

The length of time we have gone without a new class or even a new weapon skill line makes me think that it's probably in maintenance mode at least as far as mechanics go.

The mechanics have received constant balance changes, new gear, etc. Maintenance mode isn't defined that narrowly, and even if it were, this would still be incorrect due to the aforementioned changes.

Maintenance mode would mean very little to no balance changes whatsoever.

Wanting a new class doesn't invalidate all other changes to the game. It perhaps invalidates your desire to purchase stuff.

But when a game goes into maintenance mode, the game almost completely or completely stops receiving any updates whatsoever outside of the occasional bug fixes. And even those aren't common because they won't patch small bugs either. It's a skeleton crew doing the bare minimum to keep the game maintained.

SWTOR is at this point.

Sarannah

As there were multiple replies responding to my post, I'm just going to globally reply to them all.

Just because I see things differently and in a more positive light, does not mean there is any reason to insult me. The things the OP mentioned can easily be explained by multiple different factors, which I named. This is not being dismissive of their or anyone else's observations, I just see things differently.
In my opinion the main thing holding the game back at the moment, is the game itself, and it's restrictions on things that can be bought. Furniture, storage/bank space, houseguests, characterslots, new classes, etc.

About the content creators and them leaving. Content creators (and other player) have been saying the game is too easy. Yet before OneTamriel, when the game was hard, the game lost players because the game was hard. To counter this point ZOS released an update which reduced everyone's damage across the board, yet this isn't well received as well. Meaning, do those content creators and players even know what they are asking for? In the thread about tougher overland many players, including myself, have pointed out tougher content only makes it more tedious/annoying. Due to update 35, people are actually noticing this is correct, as the game became more tedious for everyone. As all those players jumped on the bandwagon of what was wrong with the game, they now have to suffer the result of that complaint. But instead of admitting they were wrong about tougher content and what would be the result of their own request, they complain and 'quit' the game. The lesson is: Be careful what you wish for!

Not saying the game doesn't have issues or that the playerbase isn't down somewhat, but that doesn't mean anything as there are multiple factors at play here. Corona is gone, vacationtime is over, the game hasn't released any major content recently, inflation, other game releases, a war, etc etc. As well as update 35 not being that well received by the top players. Something which ZOS could easily turn around if they wanted to(U35).

The facts we know are: The servers are still online, ZOS is still releasing quarterly updates, ZOS is still releasing bi-weekly patches, ZOS has put money in new servers for atleast two different realms, and recently a dev even came out and stated the game is not in maintenance mode. So there is no reason at all to be negative, simply because the player numbers are down for a month or two.
Posts with this type of negativity could actually be a self-fulfilling prophecy, because they might chase away new players who otherwise may have put money into the game.
But let's for a second assume the game really is going into maintenance mode, does it really matter as long as they do not take the servers offline?! We could all still play for how many years the game would be in maintenance mode, it could even grow during that period. Because the game itself is solid.

Overal I see the future for ESO could be amazing, as long as ZOS does think about what they do before they implement it. And the game keeps expanding. I know I'm not going to like everything about the game, and I won't like every future update, but I also know MMO's keep evolving. This helps me keep faith in the game, and the game's creators!

PS: Why are people so overly negative nowadays? There is a difference between being realistic and being negative, I like being an optimistic realist. (as this post should show hehe)
PPS: A better world starts with you, visit the bug or technical support forum every once in a while to offer suggestions. Even if they do not/might not help the raised issue(s), years from now it could help someone with a similar problem.

Edit: Confused this topic with the other topic. Even though it was about the same thing. (no problem though)

Tandor

Jaraal wrote: »

Tandor wrote: »

SizanLopkniht wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

ESO is one of the most profitable games on Steam right now. And while we can't know what's the case on consoles, we can guess that it's likely that it's even more profitable on console due to lack of competition and similar player sizes (devs have said in the past that the size of the playerbases are roughly equal).

You have repeatedly stated that we can't rely on steam charts to determine the trends in the number of people playing ESO. But now you're stating that we can rely on steam for other types of data?

Surely it's the case that we know that ESO is one of the most successful games on Steam, but we don't know what proportion of ESO players are playing it through Steam. Therefore the Steam figures tell us what is happening on Steam, but not in a way that we can then use to extrapolate to tell us what is happening elsewhere on PC as well as on the two console platforms.

Another good indicator of game health is forum participation. Before Update 35, the forums were jumping with new posts. Now, the front page can go a day or two without new posts dropping to page two. It’s as if many people have lost interest, or just flat out stopped caring. It could also be a reflection of folks getting tired of voicing their concerns, and being chronically ignored.

Forum participation is certainly something that can be tracked with accuracy.

Forum participation as a sign of the game's present state rather depends on the ability to distinguish between active players and those who have quit, in many cases long ago.

Of course the absence of new posts can simply reflect the fact that there are no new topics of interest, rather than there being no players who are interested. I think the multiple U35 threads in particular have been done to death by now.

SerafinaWaterstar

Jaraal wrote: »

Tandor wrote: »

SizanLopkniht wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

ESO is one of the most profitable games on Steam right now. And while we can't know what's the case on consoles, we can guess that it's likely that it's even more profitable on console due to lack of competition and similar player sizes (devs have said in the past that the size of the playerbases are roughly equal).

You have repeatedly stated that we can't rely on steam charts to determine the trends in the number of people playing ESO. But now you're stating that we can rely on steam for other types of data?

Surely it's the case that we know that ESO is one of the most successful games on Steam, but we don't know what proportion of ESO players are playing it through Steam. Therefore the Steam figures tell us what is happening on Steam, but not in a way that we can then use to extrapolate to tell us what is happening elsewhere on PC as well as on the two console platforms.

Another good indicator of game health is forum participation. Before Update 35, the forums were jumping with new posts. Now, the front page can go a day or two without new posts dropping to page two. It’s as if many people have lost interest, or just flat out stopped caring. It could also be a reflection of folks getting tired of voicing their concerns, and being chronically ignored.

Forum participation is certainly something that can be tracked with accuracy.

I really don’t think forum participation is any gauge of the health of the game. At all.

Most people I know who play do not touch the forum with a bargepole as they either find it toxic or irrelevant. Or too heavily moderated for their liking.

Numerous similar whingy threads don’t help, as it just makes posters sound egotistical - can’t just post on another’s thread, have to start their own special one. Just makes things very dull.

If you do engage, you notice that there are a few main posters. I think forum engagement is a very niche thing, that only a few of us like to do.

Personally, I don’t come as much as I am bored witless by the same people, many who state they don’t actually even play anymore, complaining about stuff. Or constantly doing the game down (like this one). Tedious.

opalcity

Forum activity might have been a good indicator at one point, but there are discords and reddits now.

There is always an uptick after New content, but the game has already been around for a fair few years, so a lot of questions new players might have, will already have been answered. So lots of people might be visiting, but not interacting.

Hurbster

It isn't in maintenance mode, no. New content is being produced for it.

Now, has it plateaued...?

My personal opinion is that all innovation has gone as the yearly content cadence has become a thing. No time to do anything unique. We know exactly how each expansion will be made up.

But that's just my personal opinion, of course.

Amottica

xthrshx wrote: »

2 million players? ESO doesn’t have anywhere near 2 million real, active players. If they picked up 2 million new accounts over the course of the past year, that actually suggests an even sharper decline in long-time players and bodes worse for the overall health of the community.

The vast, overwhelming majority of accounts are inactive, barely active, or bots. Their daily players total maybe 200,000. The more you inflate that total account number, the worse that active player count is.

We lack the information to suggest they have or do not have 2 million real active players. Also, a game of this age is expected to have a majority of accounts inactive but again, we lack the information to suggest it is or is not the case.

The only information we have comes from Steam Charts, which only shows us a possibility of growth or decline in players. While it is an unbiased set of data is it limited to PC showing only those games linked to Steam. When looking at the last three months and comparing them to the same three months in 2019 (the last year not affected by COVID) the steam charts show a clear growth in average players but a slight decline in peak players. That means of comparing months is how a professional business analyst would look for growth or decline. Also, average players is probably a better set of numbers than peak as peak may represent a few seconds of the day.

Kingsindarkness

You know I was going back over the forums last night. In business incidental information can be used as historical trends...

And this same thread (one that forecasts the game's demise) pops up regularly since 2014, and we will have the same thread in 2024, 2034...etc.

Some folks think that the game has been in maintenance mode since December 2015 with "Is ESO going into "Maintenance" mode soon?" Some folks on this thread predicted what they are saying now...and we actually have fewer MM threads now than we did in 2016..by quite a bit.

But that carries about as much weight as anything on this forum..it's really what you choose to pay attention to, isn't it?

Destai

I don't feel like the game is in maintenance mode, but feels like they're increasing monetization to make up for declining numbers. I would suspect the game's population has dropped back to pre-Covid levels, and with increasing costs, it makes sense. The free Q4 DLCs - while appreciated - concerns me that they're testing the waters for a F2P transition.

By the numbers, the zones aren't lighter on content, but I worry about the decline of earnable shinies.

That being said, I don't think the game's going anywhere. There was some recent interview with Rich stating there's more content in the works.

Cadbury

I wouldn't count ESO out just yet. It will continue existing for years to come. Heck, we might even see an ESO 2 in the future. Who knows?

Even The Simpsons TV show is still around, so there's hope.

TaSheen

Cadbury wrote: »

Even The Simpsons TV show is still around, so there's hope.

I personally wouldn't call that hope. My actual reaction is.... not postable here.

Jaraal

Cadbury wrote: »

I wouldn't count ESO out just yet. It will continue existing for years to come. Heck, we might even see an ESO 2 in the future. Who knows?

Even The Simpsons TV show is still around, so there's hope.

I’d have to see a different team in the credits before investing time and money in more of the same 2.0.

Amottica

opalcity wrote: »

SizanLopkniht wrote: »

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

Jaraal wrote: »

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

the most played MMO in the world

https://steamdb.info/graph/?category=20

This means nothing to me as I, and the vast majority of pop, play on PC through the Bethesda launcher.

True. But ZOS will never post any statistics on the player population. While steam does, so those are the numbers we have to work with . A poll elsewhere on the forum showed that roughly 1/3rd of players play through steam, so steam trends do include a large enough sample of the player base to draw accurate conclusions from.

That poll is hardly a reliable source. It shows that roughly 1/3 of players WHO COME TO THE GENERAL FORUM, play through Steam.

Plus less than 500 people took part in that poll, which is hardly a representative sample when you consider that the estimated player base runs into the millions.

The forums is hardly a representative sample to start with. However, Steam charts are still worthy to consider and the only reliable source of unbiased information we have even if it only reflects PC. This thread is full of suggestions that a guild or discord in decline represents the entire community and that is an incorrect assumption.

Kingsindarkness wrote: »

You know I was going back over the forums last night. In business incidental information can be used as historical trends...

And this same thread (one that forecasts the game's demise) pops up regularly since 2014, and we will have the same thread in 2024, 2034...etc.

Some folks think that the game has been in maintenance mode since December 2015 with "Is ESO going into "Maintenance" mode soon?" Some folks on this thread predicted what they are saying now...and we actually have fewer MM threads now than we did in 2016..by quite a bit.

But that carries about as much weight as anything on this forum..it's really what you choose to pay attention to, isn't it?

Calling this game dead has been a thing since mid-2014. It is amazing how well this game has done for one that died eight years ago.

Kappachi

ZOS_Kevin wrote: »

Hey All, wanted to chime in quickly here. We are not going into maintenance mode. We've got more stuff on the horizon to keep everyone in Tamriel busy for some time. The team is excited to share more when we're ready, but until then, we have Firesong up next.

Glad to hear and excited to see what the future holds for the game.