Found some interesting ESO population data...

mpicklesster

I did not gather these data myself. I got this figure from mmo-population.com. They track various population stats for various games. One of the stats they track is a game's daily population size. The following figure shows ESO daily population for about the past month:



TL; DR: It's interesting to note that the game's population fell off precipitously after 7/19--which was shortly after PTS patch 8.1.1. ESO averaged about 400k users per day before 7/19. Now it averages about 200k per day (i.e., user rates dropped by about half).

To be clear, I'm not trying to be snarky or disparaging. However, if ZOS needed a way to quantify the impact of this patch, the above figure is it.

I'm a firm believer in diplomacy and compassion, but I can't think of another way to demonstrate how unpopular this PTS is. I really hope ZOS can swallow their pride and just forego these combat changes entirely. I know that's far easier said than done, but I think these user stats warrant a serious consideration of scrapping the combat changes.

Sandman929

That takes care of lowering the ceiling

Qrähe

That data is suspicious at best.

Troodon80

The numbers for ESO on MMO-Population are based largely on sentiment. ZOS only rarely publicly releases player/subscriber numbers, and they're usually rounded; so what happens, likely, is that they compare the currently known to the previously known over a specific time period and then guess at what it currently is, along with what people are saying on places like Reddit, Twitter, etc.

Last count was somewhere around/over 19m players -- with no data or context on whether that was cold accounts, active accounts, etc. If they are looking at purchased copies of the game, several people on the forum here actively maintain multiple accounts (of course they're the minority and that isn't going to be a meaningful statistic, but all these things add up).

Senitiment isn't an accurate statistic for game population as you can not like something while simultaneously playing the game. People saying "I'm going to cancel my subscription" doesn't mean the same as "I'm leaving ESO for a different game." Plus, if the number that ZOS releases is based purely on purchased copies of the game (i.e. registered accounts) then player numbers will never actually go down.

Qrähe

Way to know it's bad data, when a Friday has lower player count than a Thursday.... just think about it that makes sense logically.

Auldwulfe

However, I can see this as something that could be gotten - MANY of the players on here, myself included, go through Steam.... and as such, there is a bit of tracking as to what people are playing, and when. It records hours played on every game, etc......

So, this could represent a number from a service provider, like that - it would not be exactly accurate, but it could show a trend through that provider that could give you a general idea of what it is across the board.

Auldwulfe

mpicklesster

Troodon80 wrote: »

The numbers for ESO on MMO-Population are based largely on sentiment. ZOS only rarely publicly releases player/subscriber numbers, and they're usually rounded; so what happens, likely, is that they compare the currently known to the previously known over a specific time period and then guess at what it currently is, along with what people are saying on places like Reddit, Twitter, etc.

Last count was somewhere around/over 19m players -- with no data or context on whether that was cold accounts, active accounts, etc. If they are looking at purchased copies of the game, several people on the forum here actively maintain multiple accounts (of course they're the minority and that isn't going to be a meaningful statistic, but all these things add up).

Senitiment isn't an accurate statistic for game population as you can not like something while simultaneously playing the game. People saying "I'm going to cancel my subscription" doesn't mean the same as "I'm leaving ESO for a different game." Plus, if the number that ZOS releases is based purely on purchased copies of the game (i.e. registered accounts) then player numbers will never actually go down.

In a nut shell, mmo-population is best for looking at relative change. I wouldn't dare say their numbers are a literal, absolute count of player activity. By their own admission, they say that their data are based on active Reddit users. So, while this certainly does not directly measure player population statistics, it is certainly correlated with it. Moreover, that means you can still use their data to evaluate relative changes in the state of a game's population.

In other words, I wouldn't dare argue that the data above reflect the exact levels of ESO's population. However, they are a useful measure of the degree to which its population goes up or down. The drastic population fall off in ESO after 7/19 seems to track well with this notion.

P.S. If you're curious about the exact methods by which they calculate their stats, you can see their methods here: https://mmo-population.com/about/

Edited for typos.

mpicklesster

Qrähe wrote: »

Way to know it's bad data, when a Friday has lower player count than a Thursday.... just think about it that makes sense logically.

That's because these data are a measure of how many Reddit users are active in ESO forums. So, when people are actively playing the most, they're talking in forums the least.

This means that these data are a laggy indicator of user activity, but an indicator nonetheless. One implication of this is that these data are better suited for measuring long-term trends as opposed to literal daily activity. Sort of like how COVID deaths are a laggy indicator of daily disease spread, but still a valid, long-term indicator of disease spread.

xaraan

Well, there is no reliable way for anyone outside of zos to track player population in eso. They can make guesstimates using console and steam pops, but it doesn't account for everything. It's also why we cannot trust what they say about their numbers - you notice they only occasionally brag about stuff and when they do it's specific stuff like players logged in or bought this chapter, or did this event, etc. i.e. they cherry pick b/c when they talk about numbers, it's just marketing, not actual sharing of information.

Unfortunately, all we can do from the outside is use that trusty ol' anecdotal data to tell if things are changing. Like, how slow zones are, how empty guild and friends lists are vs normal, how prices of gold mats are dropping, if raid leads are dissolving discord groups, etc. The event definitely has helped boost population, but from my point of view, I can still see a difference. And looking at graphs like these can add to that guesstimate, but just be wary of treating it like hard data.

mpicklesster

xaraan wrote: »

Well, there is no reliable way for anyone outside of zos to track player population in eso. They can make guesstimates using console and steam pops, but it doesn't account for everything.

True, but changes in the sub communities orbiting ESO are undoubtedly correlated with actual changes in ESO's overall population. So ignoring the data simply because the sample isn't perfect is a naive viewpoint. There is no such thing as a perfect sample. Ever. Scientific fields like epidemiology would be useless if they did nothing until they finally got an ideal sample. Nonetheless, there are plenty of useful samples, and that's the best one can hope for. That's also why it's most important to remember that in science we often use sample data as a measure of change, not a measure of absolute levels.

xaraan wrote: »

It's also why we cannot trust what they [ZOS] say about their numbers - you notice they only occasionally brag about stuff and when they do it's specific stuff like players logged in or bought this chapter, or did this event, etc. i.e. they cherry pick b/c when they talk about numbers, it's just marketing, not actual sharing of information.

Also true, but these data aren't from ZOS. See my comments above.

xaraan wrote: »

And looking at graphs like these can add to that guesstimate, but just be wary of treating it like hard data.

I'm not treating it like "hard data". In one of my comments above, I said the following: "In a nut shell, mmo-population is best for looking at relative change. I wouldn't dare say their numbers are a literal, absolute count of player activity. [...] However, they are a useful measure of the degree to which its population goes up or down. The drastic population fall off in ESO after 7/19 seems to track well with this notion."

Darkstorne

That graph is only bouncing between 400k and 200k, and never settling on anything between the two. It's like it's rounding to the nearest 200k? I certainly wouldn't claim the patch halved the active player base looking at that data.

danno8

I think Steam Charts would be better, since they have concurrent login numbers that are most likely an accurate sample of the larger population of ESO.

Steam Charts also is a good indicator of trends and there is no "sentiment" involved. Just hard numbers on Steams own servers.

mpicklesster

Darkstorne wrote: »

That graph is only bouncing between 400k and 200k, and never settling on anything between the two. It's like it's rounding to the nearest 200k? I certainly wouldn't claim the patch halved the active player base looking at that data.

If you zoom in, you can see some minor fluctuation around those numbers. It's just lost due to 1) the small height of the Y-axis and 2) the fact that the axis is in 50k increments.

mpicklesster

danno8 wrote: »

I think Steam Charts would be better, since they have concurrent login numbers that are most likely an accurate sample of the larger population of ESO.

Steam Charts also is a good indicator of trends and there is no "sentiment" involved. Just hard numbers on Steams own servers.

Good point. I checked Steam Charts. It, too, shows a population decrease over the past 30 days, but smaller in magnitude. It's hard to estimate the exact amount because their graphing app made the Y-axis so small. However, just from "eye-balling" it, it seems that logins over the past month peaked at a little over 25k and have fallen to an average of about 18.5k. That difference would be in the ball park of a 25% drop.



P.S. The sinusoidal shape of the graph is probably just a reflection of day-time vs. night-time changes in log-in patterns. However, you can still measure relative change if you only compare the peaks or only compare the valleys. Qualitatively, the change in overall log-in patterns would be about the same in either case.

MaraxusTheOrc

I found data that says ESO has 20 billion players. I can call it data because it has numbers. It doesn't matter how the numbers were collected, what sort of biases exist in the methods or what limitations their are in the discussion of these numbers because the numbers support the narrative I am trying to forward.

mpicklesster

MaraxusTheOrc wrote: »

I found data that says ESO has 20 billion players. I can call it data because it has numbers. It doesn't matter how the numbers were collected, what sort of biases exist in the methods or what limitations their are in the discussion of these numbers because the numbers support the narrative I am trying to forward.

Swing and a miss. The data I'm citing have a [checks notes] a source. And those sources have some measure of accountability (otherwise no one will do business with them).

Your "data" have no source and you have no accountability. Nice attempt at a hot take, but instead all you made was a false equivalent. Try again.

MaraxusTheOrc

mpicklesster wrote: »

MaraxusTheOrc wrote: »

I found data that says ESO has 20 billion players. I can call it data because it has numbers. It doesn't matter how the numbers were collected, what sort of biases exist in the methods or what limitations their are in the discussion of these numbers because the numbers support the narrative I am trying to forward.

Swing and a miss. The data I'm citing have a [checks notes] a source. And those sources have some measure of accountability (otherwise no one will do business with them).

Your "data" have no source and you have no accountability. Nice attempt at a hot take, but instead all you made was a false equivalent. Try again.

“So, we do it based on reddit subscriber information. We track the current subscribers, active users and history of both. This helps you to choose an MMO that has the required "activity" you'd like to see, or perhaps you are just interested.”

Those numbers are based on Reddit subscriber information. That is such an inherent methodological flaw in using mmo-population for any associative conclusions for update 35. I don’t think you need a PhD in biostats to see that.

mpicklesster

MaraxusTheOrc wrote: »

mpicklesster wrote: »

MaraxusTheOrc wrote: »

I found data that says ESO has 20 billion players. I can call it data because it has numbers. It doesn't matter how the numbers were collected, what sort of biases exist in the methods or what limitations their are in the discussion of these numbers because the numbers support the narrative I am trying to forward.

Swing and a miss. The data I'm citing have a [checks notes] a source. And those sources have some measure of accountability (otherwise no one will do business with them).

Your "data" have no source and you have no accountability. Nice attempt at a hot take, but instead all you made was a false equivalent. Try again.

“So, we do it based on reddit subscriber information. We track the current subscribers, active users and history of both. This helps you to choose an MMO that has the required "activity" you'd like to see, or perhaps you are just interested.”

Those numbers are based on Reddit subscriber information. That is such an inherent methodological flaw in using mmo-population for any associative conclusions for update 35. I don’t think you need a PhD in biostats to see that.

I already addressed this in another comment above, but I'll restate my response again:

"True, but changes in the sub communities orbiting ESO are undoubtedly correlated with actual changes in ESO's overall population. So ignoring the data simply because the sample isn't perfect is a naive viewpoint. There is no such thing as a perfect sample. Ever. Scientific fields like epidemiology would be useless if they did nothing until they finally got an ideal sample. Nonetheless, there are plenty of useful samples, and that's the best one can hope for. That's also why it's most important to remember that in science we often use sample data as a measure of change, not a measure of absolute levels."

Also--every statistician (bioscience or otherwise) uses a flawed sample. I dare you to find one that uses an ideal sample. Go ahead. I'll wait.

P.S. Seeing as ZOS will probably never release their actual user data, the best we can do is use indirect measures to examine trends (but not absolute levels, of course). If that notion escapes you, I can recommend several introductory stats courses.

MaraxusTheOrc

Your initial post *absolutely* misrepresents the data, hides the methods, and attempts to draw associative and/or causative conclusions off of significantly flawed data. It's misinformation in every sense of the word, attempting to pass off reddit activity as ESO user activity. I really hope you can forego your pride and admit that.

My suspicion is you initially thought it was genuinely a population metric, and only once people pointed out it was actually a surrogate marker of a surrogate marker, you doubled down pretending to have known that.

Update 35 is unpopular. We don't need to throw junk "data" out to show that.

Kappachi

Only data you can track is people playing via Steam launcher, but that's just people who make their playtime visible and aren't playing it straight through launcher or any other console, There's no way to check population of ESO without ZOS outright saying numbers. Seems like more people than ever are playing to me since High Isle though, every zone is always packed.

mpicklesster

MaraxusTheOrc wrote: »

Your initial post *absolutely* misrepresents the data, hides the methods, and attempts to draw associative and/or causative conclusions off of significantly flawed data. It's misinformation in every sense of the word, attempting to pass off reddit activity as ESO user activity. I really hope you can forego your pride and admit that.

How is it misinformation? Do you think I or mmo-population pulled the data out of thin air? You're making a hyperbolic stab-in-the-dark as a last-ditch effort because you're now realizing you've bitten off more than you can chew with this argument.
Anyway--as I said before, I'm not trying to literally pass off Reddit activity as ESO user activity. (Also--how do you propose we measure ESO activity data if they probably won't ever release their data in its entirety?) My solution (as I already stated above): use indirect methods like mmo-population (or Steam Charts, as suggested by another). Why should we use indirect methods, you ask? Because--as I also stated earlier--"changes in the sub communities orbiting ESO are undoubtedly correlated with actual changes in ESO's overall population. So ignoring the data simply because the sample isn't perfect is a naive viewpoint."
Obviously you don't realize that the vast majority of science uses indirect measures because direct ones are usually a) impossible or b) invasive/unethical. If you did know that, you wouldn't be so confidently naive.

MaraxusTheOrc wrote: »

My suspicion is you initially thought it was genuinely a population metric, and only once people pointed out it was actually a surrogate marker of a surrogate marker, you doubled down pretending to have known that.

Lol no. I never assumed it was a genuine population metric. Think about that. Why would a third party be able to publish direct population metrics while ZOS refuses to do so? I've been doing stats for 13 years. I know better than that. I assumed that mmo-population was an aggregate of other sources--because anyone who wasn't born yesterday knows that a private business of the size of ZOS has no obligation to publish their actual user data.

I will admit that I didn't know Reddit was their indirect measure of ESO's user base. That certainly makes it impossible to use it as a measure of absolute user levels, but I never treated it as an absolute measure in the first place. Which is 100% fine. Why? Well let me reiterate in case it didn't stick the last 3 times: "changes in the sub communities orbiting ESO are undoubtedly correlated with actual changes in ESO's overall population. So ignoring the data simply because the sample isn't perfect is a naive viewpoint." Furthermore--I also stated above that "[this] means you can still use their data to evaluate relative changes in the state of a game's population."
If everyone in science waited until we had perfect, direct measures of population behavior, nothing would ever get done. We'd be waiting until judgment day because you will never get an ideal, direct measure. So shrugging off a measure just because it's indirect--when no direct measure is available, btw--is just short-sighted and naive.

MaraxusTheOrc wrote: »

Update 35 is unpopular. We don't need to throw junk "data" out to show that.

Think of the above graphs as giving the devs a taste of their own medicine and a way of speaking their language. They've asked for quantitative data. Now they have it. Two different sources (mmo-population and Steam Charts) have shown a non-trivial drop in player activity. That's a pattern no measure-driven corporate executive can ignore.

xaraan

mpicklesster wrote: »

xaraan wrote: »

Well, there is no reliable way for anyone outside of zos to track player population in eso. They can make guesstimates using console and steam pops, but it doesn't account for everything.

True, but changes in the sub communities orbiting ESO are undoubtedly correlated with actual changes in ESO's overall population. So ignoring the data simply because the sample isn't perfect is a naive viewpoint. There is no such thing as a perfect sample. Ever. Scientific fields like epidemiology would be useless if they did nothing until they finally got an ideal sample. Nonetheless, there are plenty of useful samples, and that's the best one can hope for. That's also why it's most important to remember that in science we often use sample data as a measure of change, not a measure of absolute levels.

xaraan wrote: »

It's also why we cannot trust what they [ZOS] say about their numbers - you notice they only occasionally brag about stuff and when they do it's specific stuff like players logged in or bought this chapter, or did this event, etc. i.e. they cherry pick b/c when they talk about numbers, it's just marketing, not actual sharing of information.

Also true, but these data aren't from ZOS. See my comments above.

xaraan wrote: »

And looking at graphs like these can add to that guesstimate, but just be wary of treating it like hard data.

I'm not treating it like "hard data". In one of my comments above, I said the following: "In a nut shell, mmo-population is best for looking at relative change. I wouldn't dare say their numbers are a literal, absolute count of player activity. [...] However, they are a useful measure of the degree to which its population goes up or down. The drastic population fall off in ESO after 7/19 seems to track well with this notion."

[snip]
My posts wasn't to disagree with you, and I never said these numbers were from zos.

Simply see too many players get numbers from sources like steam without realizing how limited that is. You'll notice I didn't personally say "you" did this or that, but talked as in we the community need to be aware. And in fact my point goes on to essentially say that looking at stuff like this and making educated guesses about it is better than any info zos will offer b/c whatever they offer is only cherry picked info for marketing.

[Edit for minor bait.]

francesinhalover

Better to just use steam charts

EF321

This graph means nothing with no comparison to same period in at least one last year.
It is summer.

jowv

MaraxusTheOrc wrote: »

I found data that says ESO has 20 billion players. I can call it data because it has numbers. It doesn't matter how the numbers were collected, what sort of biases exist in the methods or what limitations their are in the discussion of these numbers because the numbers support the narrative I am trying to forward.

There’s ‘only’ 8 billion of us on the planet - 20 billion will be tough to achieve even for ZOS.

Katheriah

The last year on Steam charts:

mpicklesster

EF321 wrote: »

This graph means nothing with no comparison to same period in at least one last year.
It is summer.

Fair point. Thankfully, the post of this one posted a graph of ESO Steam Charts over the past year. There are some seasonal ups and downs, but the overall trend from last year to this one is a general, downward trajectory.

Taken together, all of these results suggest that 1)ESO has shown an overall decline from last summer to this one and 2) there's also been a non-trivial drop in user activity within this past month.

mpicklesster

francesinhalover wrote: »

Better to just use steam charts

I did in a subsequent comment. Scroll up.

OsUfi

mpicklesster wrote: »

EF321 wrote: »

This graph means nothing with no comparison to same period in at least one last year.
It is summer.

Taken together, all of these results suggest that 1)ESO has shown an overall decline from last summer to this one and 2) there's also been a non-trivial drop in user activity within this past month.

Darn near every game on Steam has seen a drop since last year. I wonder if something happened in 2021 that caused people to log in to all manner of online games from LoL to Counterstrike, that's less of an issue this year...

FluffyBird

200k, half of population swings in one day? All points within 1k of either 200k or 400k? Someone either gathered the data, or processed it, or made this graph with their butt. Most likely, all three.

Also, with such drops it averaged around 350k, not 400k before the last drop

mpicklesster

FluffyBird wrote: »

200k, half of population swings in one day? All points within 1k of either 200k or 400k? Someone either gathered the data, or processed it, or made this graph with their butt. Most likely, all three.

Also, with such drops it averaged around 350k, not 400k before the last drop

If I had to guess, I'd say that whatever graphing app they use has some smoothing artifacts. (I do stats for a living, so I've seen it before.) Sometimes, in lower quality apps, the smoothing function tries to fit the data points to the increments of your Y-axis. So, for example, a data point of 247k would be smoothed to 250k; a data point of 253k would also be smoothed to 250k; etc.

It's not an uncommon problem for apps designed to make graphs for web browsers. The goal for those apps is usually to make a graph that will fit within a small window like a phone, tablet, or laptop. Unfortunately, some of those same apps use cheap smoothing functions (like the one I described above) to make the graph fit on small devices. So this means figures like the one in my initial post are only good for looking at trends, not absolute levels.