How much will the new Radiant Apex mounts cost in GEMS ?

WiseSky

Thanks MicroZos

Ratzkifal

My guess is 1200, my hope is 600.

Chrysa1is

They're 500

Mefromnorway

Guess 800

DreadDaedroth

700

600 like other limited edition mounts. I hope

Lugaldu

It will be too much, anyway.

Rex-Umbra

Why Poll options so high damn

trackdemon5512

3000

1500 and up.

Rarity people is the name of the game. The cost in crown gems has to match the chances of actually getting one on a normal drop. How many gems do you usually get before you get one? On average for me it's a couple thousand gems so it would make sense to be around that much.

My assumption: ZOS got tired of ppl complaining they opened X amount of crates and they got nothing so they called customer service to force one. Now ZOS can sit back and say it's either extremely lucky RNG or you put the effort in.

Seraphayel

1000

Chrysa1is wrote: »

They're 500

No way, the usual apex mounts cost 400, 500 is way too cheap.

The limit is 1000 gems and that's what I go with. Anything beyond makes absolutely no sense as 1000 gems is already something between $100-200. Imagine it costing even more than that, it would be ridiculous.

DarkPicture

3000+

3200 gems

carlos424

1800

Ratzkifal wrote: »

My guess is 1200, my hope is 600.

There are already some mounts that are 600. I think you are closer with 1200. I think it will be at least 1200, probably more like 1800-2400. I’m thinking 3x-4x the 600, exclusive, mount price.

Maythor

I was bitten and burned by a gem-costing mount .. won't be doing that again. 500 gems for the wooden wicker witch horse and no extra summon animation or special animations at all! I should have waited and checked .. considering the amount of bugged and just disappointing items that are over-priced on the crown store! (I still am awaiting the glow to appear on my Balorgh staff model like the other monster weapon sets .. the red flame is there but no red glow that was added to other sets when people reported the bug).

You can guarantee the cost will be ludicrous, since people want them.

Avoranti

3000+

Browart wrote: »

3200 gems

This would be my guess as well.

trackdemon5512

3000

Maythor wrote: »

I was bitten and burned by a gem-costing mount .. won't be doing that again. 500 gems for the wooden wicker witch horse and no extra summon animation or special animations at all! I should have waited and checked .. considering the amount of bugged and just disappointing items that are over-priced on the crown store! (I still am awaiting the glow to appear on my Balorgh staff model like the other monster weapon sets .. the red flame is there but no red glow that was added to other sets when people reported the bug).

You can guarantee the cost will be ludicrous, since people want them.

@Maythor

Good news everybody!

You should be able to preview that roar/summon animation with these crates. What a wonderful change. Before I’d stop receiving crates unless I saw someone else with a certain apex Mount and could confirm a great animation.

Folkb

Tree fiddy.

jahaposada

1300

1200...double a high end crown gem exclusive.

Gythral

3000+

Way too much - not matter how little

Hotdog_23

400-600 gems

Tharonil

I would pay 130 gems. I've saved them up for interesting things.

Elsonso

3000

Seraphayel wrote: »

I really question the guys that say 2000-3000 gems, that’s insane and would be ~ $400-500 - all that for a simple mount. Seriously?

The price for a specific radiant apex mount at even odds a 99.995% chance for a 0.1% chance item is roughly $22,000. This sets the upper bounds of a range of prices that these are selling for, today. Naturally (or hopefully), no one is buying that many Crown Crates so that they have a decent chance of getting it.

If you are happy with any old radiant apex mount (0.25%), your 50% 99.995% will cost you $9000.

Note that these prices represent the number of US dollars used to purchase full price Crowns that are used to purchase the number of Crown Crates that will give you a "coin-flip" to get the item you want. Under no circumstances is it guaranteed that someone will get the mount, at any price.

Asking $500 is a piddly insignificant amount.

I will be interesting to see what ZOS thinks.

I picked 3000. I think the actual value will be between 3000 and 4000, but did not think that difference warranted picking the open-ended 3000+.

(Edited because I had my spreadsheet set at a high desired probability rather than the coin-flip probability that I talked about)

redlink1979

1000

My guess, 1k at the very least

WiseSky

2700

Elsonso wrote: »

Seraphayel wrote: »

I really question the guys that say 2000-3000 gems, that’s insane and would be ~ $400-500 - all that for a simple mount. Seriously?

The price for a specific radiant apex mount at a 50% chance, rather than a 0.1% chance, is roughly $22,000. This sets the upper bounds of a range of prices that these are selling for, today. Naturally (or hopefully), no one is buying that many Crown Crates so that they have a decent chance of getting it.

If you are happy with any old radiant apex mount (0.25%), your 50% chance will cost you $9000.

Note that these prices represent the number of US dollars used to purchase full price Crowns that are used to purchase the number of Crown Crates that will give you a "coin-flip" to get the item you want. Under no circumstances is it guaranteed that someone will get the mount, at any price.

Asking $500 is a piddly insignificant amount.

I will be interesting to see what ZOS thinks.

I picked 3000. I think the actual value will be between 3000 and 4000, but did not think that difference warranted picking the open-ended 3000+.

400 crates
is 27 packs of 15 crates at 5000 crowns

so 135 000 Crowns
so around 10 packs of 14 000 Crowns buddle at 100$

so 1 000 $ usd per radiant

I dont know where you get the 9000 $

Elsonso

3000

WiseSky wrote: »

Elsonso wrote: »

Seraphayel wrote: »

I really question the guys that say 2000-3000 gems, that’s insane and would be ~ $400-500 - all that for a simple mount. Seriously?

The price for a specific radiant apex mount at a 50% chance, rather than a 0.1% chance, is roughly $22,000. This sets the upper bounds of a range of prices that these are selling for, today. Naturally (or hopefully), no one is buying that many Crown Crates so that they have a decent chance of getting it.

If you are happy with any old radiant apex mount (0.25%), your 50% chance will cost you $9000.

Note that these prices represent the number of US dollars used to purchase full price Crowns that are used to purchase the number of Crown Crates that will give you a "coin-flip" to get the item you want. Under no circumstances is it guaranteed that someone will get the mount, at any price.

Asking $500 is a piddly insignificant amount.

I will be interesting to see what ZOS thinks.

I picked 3000. I think the actual value will be between 3000 and 4000, but did not think that difference warranted picking the open-ended 3000+.

400 crates
is 27 packs of 15 crates at 5000 crowns

so 135 000 Crowns
so around 10 packs of 14 000 Crowns buddle at 100$

so 1 000 $ usd per radiant

I dont know where you get the 9000 $

At a drop rate of 0.25%, you have to buy just short of 3700 Crown Crates to get even odds a 99.995% chance of getting a Radiant Apex mount.

(Updated because I had my spreadsheet set to the wrong desired probability)

Lady_Sleepless

700

My guess was either 600, 700 or 800 gems.
So it would be 400 for an Apex, 600 for the limited released mounts and 700/800 for the Radiant.

Araneae6537

1800

Elsonso wrote: »

Seraphayel wrote: »

I really question the guys that say 2000-3000 gems, that’s insane and would be ~ $400-500 - all that for a simple mount. Seriously?

The price for a specific radiant apex mount at a 50% chance, rather than a 0.1% chance, is roughly $22,000. This sets the upper bounds of a range of prices that these are selling for, today. Naturally (or hopefully), no one is buying that many Crown Crates so that they have a decent chance of getting it.

If you are happy with any old radiant apex mount (0.25%), your 50% chance will cost you $9000.

Note that these prices represent the number of US dollars used to purchase full price Crowns that are used to purchase the number of Crown Crates that will give you a "coin-flip" to get the item you want. Under no circumstances is it guaranteed that someone will get the mount, at any price.

Asking $500 is a piddly insignificant amount.

I will be interesting to see what ZOS thinks.

I picked 3000. I think the actual value will be between 3000 and 4000, but did not think that difference warranted picking the open-ended 3000+.

Wow, at that price, I’ll take a car; it won’t be radiant apex but there are other benefits that are pretty sweet!

WiseSky

2700

Elsonso wrote: »

WiseSky wrote: »

Elsonso wrote: »

Seraphayel wrote: »

I really question the guys that say 2000-3000 gems, that’s insane and would be ~ $400-500 - all that for a simple mount. Seriously?

The price for a specific radiant apex mount at a 50% chance, rather than a 0.1% chance, is roughly $22,000. This sets the upper bounds of a range of prices that these are selling for, today. Naturally (or hopefully), no one is buying that many Crown Crates so that they have a decent chance of getting it.

If you are happy with any old radiant apex mount (0.25%), your 50% chance will cost you $9000.

Note that these prices represent the number of US dollars used to purchase full price Crowns that are used to purchase the number of Crown Crates that will give you a "coin-flip" to get the item you want. Under no circumstances is it guaranteed that someone will get the mount, at any price.

Asking $500 is a piddly insignificant amount.

I will be interesting to see what ZOS thinks.

I picked 3000. I think the actual value will be between 3000 and 4000, but did not think that difference warranted picking the open-ended 3000+.

400 crates
is 27 packs of 15 crates at 5000 crowns

so 135 000 Crowns
so around 10 packs of 14 000 Crowns buddle at 100$

so 1 000 $ usd per radiant

I dont know where you get the 9000 $

At a drop rate of 0.25%, you have to buy just short of 3700 Crown Crates to get even odds of getting a Radiant Apex mount.

You clearly are mistaken.

I will try to explain.


https://crowncrates.com/akaviripotentate

out of 18,829 crates Akaviri Potentate Crate

There was 45 Radiant Apex Drop Crate Seen

so

45 / 18,829 = 0.238~ %

So 1 crate in 418 is an Radiant Apex

Your odds of of 1 in 3700 crown crates to get an radiant apex is not 0.25%

1 in 3700 is 0.027%

barney2525

600

They don't want to scare people away from buying crates by setting to cost too high

IMHO

madman65

From what I gather, there is 3 so that in the past those have been offered through crates. When there is a single mount then it was 600 gems. All I know is that it will take more crowns if it is offered through crates. Hope the horse is NOT like the Night Frost Atronach Steed, I felt cheated because it gives very little graphic aesthetics.

Seraphayel

1000

Elsonso wrote: »

Seraphayel wrote: »

I really question the guys that say 2000-3000 gems, that’s insane and would be ~ $400-500 - all that for a simple mount. Seriously?

The price for a specific radiant apex mount at a 50% chance, rather than a 0.1% chance, is roughly $22,000. This sets the upper bounds of a range of prices that these are selling for, today. Naturally (or hopefully), no one is buying that many Crown Crates so that they have a decent chance of getting it.

If you are happy with any old radiant apex mount (0.25%), your 50% chance will cost you $9000.

Note that these prices represent the number of US dollars used to purchase full price Crowns that are used to purchase the number of Crown Crates that will give you a "coin-flip" to get the item you want. Under no circumstances is it guaranteed that someone will get the mount, at any price.

Asking $500 is a piddly insignificant amount.

I will be interesting to see what ZOS thinks.

I picked 3000. I think the actual value will be between 3000 and 4000, but did not think that difference warranted picking the open-ended 3000+.

This logic applies to percentages and statistics. It’s like lottery. But when they in fact sell these things, they have to price them reasonably, otherwise it will leave a very bad impression and taste. Having a mount in a cash shop that costs roughly $500 will stain ESOs reputation. Undoubtably.

In fact it was an advantage that you could not buy Radiant Apex mounts, so they could do with them what they want to as they were only a tiny drop chance. This changes when they are obtainable in the shop. You have to strike a fine balance and pricing them at 2000 gems or more would be a very questionable move - yes, now you can buy them, but they are so expensive that it doesn’t make any difference to before, at least not when it comes to perception.

I said 1000 gems and I stand by that, it’s 2.5 the price of an Apex mount and the upper limit before they’re tarnishing their reputation even more, but I guess we’ll see tomorrow.

Elsonso

3000

WiseSky wrote: »

Elsonso wrote: »

WiseSky wrote: »

Elsonso wrote: »

Seraphayel wrote: »

I really question the guys that say 2000-3000 gems, that’s insane and would be ~ $400-500 - all that for a simple mount. Seriously?

The price for a specific radiant apex mount at a 50% chance, rather than a 0.1% chance, is roughly $22,000. This sets the upper bounds of a range of prices that these are selling for, today. Naturally (or hopefully), no one is buying that many Crown Crates so that they have a decent chance of getting it.

If you are happy with any old radiant apex mount (0.25%), your 50% chance will cost you $9000.

Note that these prices represent the number of US dollars used to purchase full price Crowns that are used to purchase the number of Crown Crates that will give you a "coin-flip" to get the item you want. Under no circumstances is it guaranteed that someone will get the mount, at any price.

Asking $500 is a piddly insignificant amount.

I will be interesting to see what ZOS thinks.

I picked 3000. I think the actual value will be between 3000 and 4000, but did not think that difference warranted picking the open-ended 3000+.

400 crates
is 27 packs of 15 crates at 5000 crowns

so 135 000 Crowns
so around 10 packs of 14 000 Crowns buddle at 100$

so 1 000 $ usd per radiant

I dont know where you get the 9000 $

At a drop rate of 0.25%, you have to buy just short of 3700 Crown Crates to get even odds of getting a Radiant Apex mount.

You clearly are mistaken.

I will try to explain.


https://crowncrates.com/akaviripotentate

out of 18,829 crates Akaviri Potentate Crate

There was 45 Radiant Apex Drop Crate Seen

so

45 / 18,829 = 0.238~ %

So 1 crate in 418 is an Radiant Apex

Your odds of of 1 in 3700 crown crates to get an radiant apex is not 0.25%

1 in 3700 is 0.027%

Actually, you are correct in that I did have an error in my calculation. The math is actually a fairly standard probability calculation and I just happen to have that spreadsheet handy. I had the desired probability set at a high value for another purpose instead of the desired probability being even, P(d)=0.5, that I normally use for Crown Crates. Essentially, the numbers I gave were for an almost certain successful outcome, which is not what I said they were.

To update my numbers from above...

For radiant apex, at a probability of success of P(s)=0.0024 (0.24%), one can expect to open 289 Crown Crates in
order to have a desired probability P(d)=0.5 (50%) of having already received such a mount.

If my scribblings are right...
289 Crown Crates = nineteen 15-packs and one 4-pack = 96,500 Crowns
96,500 Crowns = four 21000-pack, two 5500-pack, and one 1500-pack = $694.93 + applicable taxes.

Naturally, this assumes full price Crowns and Crown Crates and does not take into account ESO Plus Crowns. ZOS/Bethesda are the only ones who know what the Crowns are actually worth, on the average.

So, based on how much they are selling apex mounts, I revise my top-end guess to 2800 Gems. This is based on calculation that the radiant apex is considerably (7x) more valuable to ZOS than the apex.

Remember that ZOS is doing Crown Crates to make money. They might be willing to sacrifice revenue for this, given that the game is relatively popular and making money. They also may need more revenue to fund studio expansion. It is easy to figure that Radiant Apex mounts drive Crown Crate sales. Selling them for Gems also drives Crown Crate sales. My thinking is that the two will be at least equivalent, in terms of revenue dollars, when all is said and done. Chances are that they expect to make more revenue doing this, so the radiant apex will be done so that people buy more Crown Crates than they are today.

Naturally, it will be interesting to see what ZOS actually does. Whatever they are doing, I expect that the math will show that they are doing it to drive more revenue from Crown Crates than they are today.

Nord_Raseri

To pixel mount that's only "lent" to us, or a ps5...