RNG isn't random it's broken.

josiahva

How is it that people really don't understand what random means? Each time there is an armor drop...it is 33% chance to get the weight(or rather the set) your are looking for. That means, that in EVERY SINGLE DROP YOU HAVE A 66% CHANCE OF NOT GETTING WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING FOR. It resets, and the odds are against you every single time...it doesn't matter if its 1 time or 100 times, each and every time the odds are against you...so yeah, not surprising with poor odds multiplied by 4 is still equal to poor odds. This becomes more and more compounded with each specific piece you are looking for. Sure...it will eventually drop, but you can't go in expecting anything you are looking for to drop.

AyaDark

regime211 wrote: »

How is it that a 4 man group runs scalecaller, and not one single person got a piece of medium armor? That isn't RNG at all! The loot drop table needs some serious adjusting. You can't expect people to grind dungeons when things like that happens!

What would you say after 100+ vMA runs with no drop, that you need ?
After that 100 more again for perfect version of the same perfect stuff ?

It is really random. And i hate drop like this.

Scion_of_Yggdrasil

Its not broken, its functioning as intended. Their intent is to give us garbage.

As I've said before: RNG without a failsafe is lazy or very intentional, and its how you ruin a game (may not RUIN ruin, but its enough to make people rage quit, or just give up and play something else). Drop rates for everything are stupid. Antiquities leads? Good luck getting it this year. Perfect roe? Might as well just buy it from a bot in the guild trader. Not even just rare materials, but things as simple as mundane runes and heartwood. Might as well support the bot problem and buy it from the trader. Dungeon gear? You better not speak it in chat, or the curse will strike and you will not get drops. And good luck with maelstrom arena...

Its not uncommon to manipulate such things either...

Social media companies have algorithms, video content apps have algorithms.... all to keep you engaged the longest. I honestly do hate sounding like that conspiracy person but literally: in some games EA uses an equation to balance a PvP match to try and ensure you win or lose, based on how many matches you've won or lost, all because of data that shows how many rounds/losses/victories the average person plays before quitting. You can be a new player, and will purposely get matched with veterans because according to this equation, you need to get your butt kicked inwards in order to make you play a few more rounds. But don't worry, because then you will be matched with other noobs, or even players ranked lower than you, on the next round so you can feel good about yourself. If companies do things as petty as manipulating match making.... do you really think a company that uses crown crates wouldn't use similar tactics in order to milk you for all your worth, time and/or money? Why give decent drop rates on motifs if you can just buy them in the crown store?

Other companies that use RNG and/or store your data usually use it to improve your odds. ESO is the only game I have played where it literally feels like it works against you. Either that's intentional, and I wouldn't be surprised, or they seriously need to reel in RNG. I used to get perfect roe all the time... until I maxed out provisioning and learned how to make recipes that use perfect roe.......

Just sayin... if RNG is so bad that it feels like it works against you, something is wrong.

kendellking_chaosb14_ESO

josiahva wrote: »

How is it that people really don't understand what random means? Each time there is an armor drop...it is 33% chance to get the weight(or rather the set) your are looking for. That means, that in EVERY SINGLE DROP YOU HAVE A 66% CHANCE OF NOT GETTING WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING FOR. It resets, and the odds are against you every single time...it doesn't matter if its 1 time or 100 times, each and every time the odds are against you...so yeah, not surprising with poor odds multiplied by 4 is still equal to poor odds. This becomes more and more compounded with each specific piece you are looking for. Sure...it will eventually drop, but you can't go in expecting anything you are looking for to drop.

It's not fully random if you take notes by person or tracking with add-ons you see the pattern it follows. Poor simple size aside farming a META set takes longer then random chance would allow.

regime211

Mindcr0w wrote: »

regime211 wrote: »

How is it that a 4 man group runs scalecaller, and not one single person got a piece of medium armor? That isn't RNG at all!

No, that is exactly what RNG is.

Raideen wrote: »

I agree OP. Its all ready been well documented that ZOS/ESO RNG is not TRUE RNG

Please provide said documentation. Otherwise you are just making baseless claims.

I ran a dungeon yesterday and this guy had been looking for a particular set. He had run it 12 times that day already and not seen a single piece of the gear set he was looking for.

[snip] I find it much more likely that he was looking for specific pieces of the set, possibly with specific traits, and didn't get those specific things. The idea that no pieces at all of a particular dungeon set dropped in 12 runs is laughable. Either this guy was exaggerating in his frustration, [snip]

[edited for baiting]

Do you base your percentage off of what? Another MMO? Theory? It makes little to NO sense to run a dungeon for not even 1 piece to even drop. You know what I find funny is everytime a set gets buffed its almost like it's harder to farm. I have played numerous MMO's and games with RNG and ESO has been the WORST!

regime211

Mindcr0w wrote: »

Raideen wrote: »

Not a leap at all. That kind of drop rate seem to be inline with how the game handles RNG, which is group based, not individual based. I have seen this countless times myself and measured this along with my girlfriend a couple years ago for three months straight. Our findings held true then, and now.

Again, please provide said documentation. [snip]

So, based on what I have been able to test and observe, this pattern holds true. It's predictable. That leads me to believe that this person is not out of line when they make the commentary that they are not seeing drops at all.

And based on my own non documented experiences and observations this scenario is unlikely to the point of being unbelievable. Every single videogame I've ever played that featured loot drops has had people make claims about the RNG being broken, unfair, or biased. Every single one. I've not once seen anyone provide proof. In fact the few times I've seen players actually document a significant sample size of drops over a significant period of time the results have always been consistent with RNG functioning as intended.

[edited for baiting]

Once again you're defending this games flawed RNG table for what reason? You are 1 individual claiming it is fine out of other's who have made comments stating other wise. [snip]

[Edited for Baiting]

regime211

gatekeeper13 wrote: »

I ve done Cloudrest trial more than 40 times. Not 1 in my group ever got a Siroria inferno staff, neither in boss loot or quest reward.

Opened hundreds of chests in Deshaan and Mother's Sorrow inferno never dropped.

Done Arx Corinium like 100 times. Only once did I see a Medusa inferno drop. Medusa Resto drops almost at 1/3 runs.

Wasted more than 60 keys to get Kjalnar's Nightmare medium shoulders. Never dropped.

Had to run MHK around 20 times for a Savage Werewolf belt to drop, getting same drops most of the time.

Wasted 120 Gladiator Proof for a chance to complete the Knight of the Circle style. 4/6 drops were Helmet.

This is more than enough for me to believe firmly that we are talking about a completely BROKEN RNG system. If it's not broken, then it's certainly designed to give you low drop rates for needed items.

I Ran Castle Thorn over 40 times for a crimson necklace, and even cycled through toons. The only way I ended up getting the necklace was due to someone else hitting level 50 before the last boss and it dropped for him. Luckily it scaled to my level.

Contaminate

It’s literally just RNG. Conspiracy theories based on what you feel are meaningless and hold no weight.

virtus753

It’s really not all that unheard of for no one in a single run to get any medium armor or even any items from a given 5-piece set. (Statisticians, please feel free to correct my math below.)

This is not meant to prove a perfectly equal drop chance for every item in a dungeon. It’s meant to show that a dungeon run without getting a single piece of a given set is still well within the realm of probability given equal drop chances and that therefore a Plague Slinger-less SCP run (vel sim.) is not sufficient proof that RNG is broken or tweaked.

We actually know that some drop chances in game are manually adjusted: Gina said this outright in the patch notes in which she talked about changes to Maelstrom weapon drop chances (back with Clockwork, if I remember right). Absent a similar comment, though, one would need a lot of data to prove it for other sets, as others here have said.

For SCP, you have 4 players looting 5 bosses and potentially 2 chests (though set drops from chests are far from guaranteed, especially on norm, and that assumes you find two in the first place).

If you're talking about medium *armor* from SCP specifically, then you're ignoring all the Plague Slinger weapon and jewelry drops. You may also be ignoring heads and shoulders to run a monster set — I put both scenarios below.

Since the final boss only drops weapons and jewelry when it comes to this set, you're down to drawing from the first four bosses and the (possibly) two chests. The ogres and the matriarch count as full bosses for the purposes of loot: they drop heads, shoulders, legs, and chests (4 types of chests, as jerkin and robe are separate drops). Doylemish and Mortieu are minor bosses: they drop waists, hands, and feet. Chests can drop any piece.

With equal weight for each drop, the chance of one individual not getting any medium armor piece of the 7 available is:

(9/13)*(6/9)*(9/13)*(6/9)*(60/67)*(60/67) = 17.08%

The chance of none of the four players getting any medium armor piece is: 0.1708^4 = 0.085%, or about once in 1176 runs.

The chance of one individual not getting any medium body piece of the 5 available is:

(11/13)*(6/9)*(11/13)*(6/9)*(62/67)*(62/67) = 27.25%

The chance of none of the four players getting any medium body piece is: 0.2725^4 = 0.55%, or about once in 182 runs.

If we exclude the chests now, assuming either you didn't find them or they didn't give set pieces, then we're looking at:

(9/13)*(6/9)*(9/13)*(6/9) = 21.3% chance for an individual => 0.21% chance for the group (about once in about 476 runs) not to draw a medium armor piece

(11/13)*(6/9)*(11/13)*(6/9) = 31.8% chance for an individual => 1.03% chance for the group (about once in 100 runs) not to draw a medium body piece

All of that is eminently within the realm of probability. With the number of dungeon runs across all six servers, multiple examples of those scenarios are likely occurring per day.

If you're willing to accept any medium set piece, including the 4 staves and the shield, then the chance of any particular group not seeing any single piece of Plague Slinger (or Tzogvin's in FV) in a full run looting two chests with a 100% set drop rate would be:

[(9/13)*(6/9)*(9/13)*(6/9)*(30/45)*(45/67)*(45/67)]^4 = 0.0017%, or about once in every 59,375 runs.

Those are the lowest odds here, and it will still happen sometimes with so many people playing the game, perhaps even on a weekly basis. Keep in mind it depends on a full 100% set piece drop rate from two chests, which is extremely rare itself. Not drawing a set piece from a chest raises your odds significantly of not drawing a medium set piece at all.

If you don't count the staves or shield of the medium set, since those tend not to be used by people running medium armor, that number increases:

[(9/13)*(6/9)*(9/13)*(6/9)*(35/45)*(50/67)*(50/67)]^4 = 0.0073% chance, or about once in every 13,796 runs, that no one in the group will get a stamdps piece (still assuming 8 set drops from two chests)

Miss the chest drops, and those numbers jump up:

0.041% chance that no medium set piece will drop for anyone, including staff or shield (once in every 2,439 runs)

0.075% chance for no stamdps piece to drop (excluding shield and staves, once in every 1,327 runs)

These last two situations are very likely occurring daily.

Even if you think the odds of any of that happening to you personally are negligible, it's going to happen to someone (indeed, many someones) if the RNG system doesn't have any restrictions in place to prevent it.

RNG isn't necessarily broken, according those numbers - it just doesn't have a failsafe in place for those who get the short end of the stick.

Also, loot your chests.

cyclonus11

I've seen this. When running WGT every day during the IC event, some days nobody would get any Imperium drops. Other days, nobody would get any SPC drops. (I didn't pay attention to Essence Thief since nobody ever asks for those pieces)

It's like it DOES have RNG, but that RNG includes whether or not a certain set will drop at all.

Edit: That includes named pieces, chests, etc.

gatekeeper13

josiahva wrote: »

How is it that people really don't understand what random means? Each time there is an armor drop...it is 33% chance to get the weight(or rather the set) your are looking for. That means, that in EVERY SINGLE DROP YOU HAVE A 66% CHANCE OF NOT GETTING WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING FOR. It resets, and the odds are against you every single time...it doesn't matter if its 1 time or 100 times, each and every time the odds are against you...so yeah, not surprising with poor odds multiplied by 4 is still equal to poor odds. This becomes more and more compounded with each specific piece you are looking for. Sure...it will eventually drop, but you can't go in expecting anything you are looking for to drop.

Same goes for all other set pieces. But somehow, although the same odds are against them, they seem to drop all the time e.g. Medusa Restoration staff but never Inferno. Medusa Resto must have dropped at least 30 times (group loot) in my Arx farming runs but Inferno only once (for another player). Same goes for Siroria Inferno. Done it more than 40 times, never dropped for ANYONE. ZERO DROPS, not in boss loot, not in reward containers. Siroria Resto drops every time.

There was another guy in the forum who posted a screenshot of his Loot log. He was buying a dungeon specific coffer from Undaunted chest and all drops were from same set, never from the one he wanted.

There is nothing random in RNG. It's either broken and gets glitched or it is scripted to give like 1% drop chance for the most sought after items.

regime211 wrote: »

I Ran Castle Thorn over 40 times for a crimson necklace, and even cycled through toons. The only way I ended up getting the necklace was due to someone else hitting level 50 before the last boss and it dropped for him. Luckily it scaled to my level.

Well, that's what I call luck. Enjoy your necklace!

Donny_Vito

Sometimes I get so frustrated with the RNG on ESO that I have to take a break. At times, feels like the RNG has something out for you...

cyclonus11

Donny_Vito wrote: »

Sometimes I get so frustrated with the RNG on ESO that I have to take a break. At times, feels like the RNG has something out for you...

It sometimes feels like AI reads your chat text.

"I'm looking for an ebon shield if anyone finds one "

AI: Ok no ebon shields for a month for this player.

idk

It seems random is being random for OP. There does not seem to be an issue.

Now, if the same said group rand the dungeon a dozen times and did not receive one piece of medium gear then we can start suggesting there is an actual issue.

Shantu

There are a lot of things to like about ESO to have kept me playing for 4+ years. But the implementation of RNG throughout the game is one of the things I despise most. IMO, it's lazy, uncreative game design.

Mythreindeer

regime211 wrote: »

How is it that a 4 man group runs scalecaller, and not one single person got a piece of medium armor? That isn't RNG at all! The loot drop table needs some serious adjusting. You can't expect people to grind dungeons when things like that happens!

If you need medium armor you have to run it with a light or heavy toon. The RNG gods will never give you what you appear to need on one run.

starkerealm

WySoSirius wrote: »

Try farming for sergeant mail 1handers in wayrest sewers and not one person in the group loots any. On multiple occasions

Also just recently I have noticed on a second avatar I can not get purple lead drops even when I have followed alcasts guide. So I agree there is no RNG. The loot tables broken

You only have a ~9% chance to get a 1h SM item off the final boss. Which means, literally, 9 times out of ten, something else will drop.

You only have a 6% chance to get a 1h SM when you get a set drop earlier in the dungeon off a non-boss source. Which, for the record, you're not guaranteed to receive at all. So, if you crack an advanced chest, there's a 94% it will be a different set item. If a mob has a set drop, there's a 94% chance it will be something else. (These numbers might be slightly off for WS in particular, but they will hold true for most dungeons.)

This is on top of the part where mob set drops are vanishingly rare to begin with.

This is where we end up with things like the BSW BBQ stick being a pain to farm, because the item has around a 1.5% drop rate from advanced or master chests.

Scion_of_Yggdrasil

For the "thats what random is," squad, please stop and educate yourself. Did you write the code? Do you even know how RNG works? The RNG you typically see in games is a combination of options each with individual drop chances, or inception style: a drop chance within a drop chance. If things were truly random, the drops would show it. Instead, you get streaks of the same item, or items that EVERYONE has issues getting.

I will say it again: this. is. literally. not. random. Nor is random easily replicated with computers. It's more likely that these are carefully-selected drop rates, and they need to change. If drops were truly random, why is it then, that I have so many daedric bench plans???

i.e. I used to play a game called Sacred. You could open up the loot system note pad from the game files and modify drop rates. While you could not select the drop rate of individual items, you could modify the drop rate of types of loot (rarity or type). The percentages did not add up to 100%, so for kicks and giggles I made all values 100. I was then looting huge amounts of items each time: some trash, some decent, and some rare loot. Every time.

i.e.2. I occasionally play a mobile MMO, Valkyrie Connect. The summon system is..... a nightmare. Your typical summon includes 10 drops. Each drop has a "randomized" chance to be rare, or super-rare. These then have their own list of drops available. Not only do particular "super-rares" have lower drop rates to begin with, but you are twice foiled: you essentially get a chance to get a chance (yes, twice, not a typo) at any super-rare drop. Some summons are noticeably stingier than others too. They also offer guaranteed drops in special summons, so obviously the equation can be manipulated however the writer desires. Valkyrie Connect doesn't advertise randomization though, I'm just referencing how they manage drop rates as an example.

There are many ways to "randomize" drops. We are trying to say that ESO is not using a fair or reasonable method. But I digress. I don't know any more than those claiming "this is random." After a quick google of "rng" this was suggested. It really is fascinating stuff. Clearly, this is a recurring subject for debate.

virtus753

WySoSirius wrote: »

Try farming for sergeant mail 1handers in wayrest sewers and not one person in the group loots any. On multiple occasions

Also just recently I have noticed on a second avatar I can not get purple lead drops even when I have followed alcasts guide. So I agree there is no RNG. The loot tables broken

If you are looking for purple treasure lead drops on alts, you will never find them. They are one-time-only per account. They have nothing to do with RNG once you’ve found them the first time.

volkeswagon

I do find it to be inconsistent. It should be more even as opposed to very sporadic as it is now. Had a friend farm a dungeon lead 20 time without success but I get it the first time. So maybe a new random number generator is in order

what_the

random adjective
Definition of random
1a: lacking a definite plan, purpose, or pattern

I really can't believe folks are saying RNG is broke, or not right, or wrong, or whatever, lol.
RNG Iis RNG, it's random! There are no formulas on our side that will be accurate in any way to guarantee any certain drop in the game at any given time.

barney2525

AinSoph wrote: »

[snip]

20+ years of playing MMO's. MMO players have shown themselves time and again to be an absolutely obsessive community. Every aspect of these games is gone over with a fine tooth comb. Thousands of hours are spent testing every conceivable aspect of these games. Dozens of hours will be spent proving which skill does 0.5% more dps than another. Hours of video, and dozens of spreadsheets will be produced during such testing.

And yet for all the hundreds of times I've seen people make claims about broken RNG not once have I ever seen documented proof. Just claims and anecdotes.

[snip]

Would you like to document every possible drop in the game with exact percentages including every possible variable? Please be realistic, we all know RNG is these games are horrible but to even consider documenting it is just borderline insane.

Completely disagree.

There is no borderline involved.

I find it fascinating that player A, who has No first hand information of the issue, would call player B an outright liar, simply because player A did not " believe " the initial player A claim.

Player B : " I find it much more likely that he was looking for specific pieces of the set, possibly with specific traits, and didn't get those specific things. The idea that no pieces at all of a particular dungeon set dropped in 12 runs is laughable. Either this guy was exaggerating in his frustration " (whatever the rest was had been snipped by Player

Now, Player B has No information whatsoever about the incident they are commenting on. None. And yet they go on the offensive and claim the issue put out is Untrue UNTIL and UNLESS Player A provides absolute 100% verified hard data.

Why should we believe Player B ? They haven't put out any documentation verifying their claim of playing MMOs for 20 years.

IMHO

volkeswagon

Then there are people that refine 1000 scraps and get 1 wax then another gets 10. One time I cut 2 stacks of fish and got no perfect roe. Another time I got 7 from 125 fish, so I do find rng very up and down. And it's this up and down that leads to numerous theories on how to improve the odds. If you use these stations you get more gold mats, if you cut fish while standing in water you get more roe, if you refine at 6am you get more gold mats, if you wait 30 seconds before looting the boss you get better drops, if you refine in your underwear you get more temps, if you sing the Golden Girls theme while doing Maelstrom you have a better chance of getting the inferno staff.

virtus753

volkeswagon wrote: »

Then there are people that refine 1000 scraps and get 1 wax then another gets 10. One time I cut 2 stacks of fish and got no perfect roe. Another time I got 7 from 125 fish, so I do find rng very up and down. And it's this up and down that leads to numerous theories on how to improve the odds. If you use these stations you get more gold mats, if you cut fish while standing in water you get more roe, if you refine at 6am you get more gold mats, if you wait 30 seconds before looting the boss you get better drops, if you refine in your underwear you get more temps, if you sing the Golden Girls theme while doing Maelstrom you have a better chance of getting the inferno staff.

That would explain my pile of ice staves...

gatekeeper13

Scion_of_Yggdrasil wrote: »

There are many ways to "randomize" drops. We are trying to say that ESO is not using a fair or reasonable method. But I digress. I don't know any more than those claiming "this is random." After a quick google of "rng" this was suggested. It really is fascinating stuff. Clearly, this is a recurring subject for debate.

Fanboys will refuse to believe you even if you bring them the game code with the rng algorithms. They just want to disagree.

40+ CR runs with no Siroria Inferno for any group member neither in boss loot or reward container makes perfect sense for them.

Diminish

RNG is clearly weighted, is not 100% psuedo random, and without a doubt is not truly random. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool.

Diminish

regime211 wrote: »

gatekeeper13 wrote: »

I ve done Cloudrest trial more than 40 times. Not 1 in my group ever got a Siroria inferno staff, neither in boss loot or quest reward.

Opened hundreds of chests in Deshaan and Mother's Sorrow inferno never dropped.

Done Arx Corinium like 100 times. Only once did I see a Medusa inferno drop. Medusa Resto drops almost at 1/3 runs.

Wasted more than 60 keys to get Kjalnar's Nightmare medium shoulders. Never dropped.

Had to run MHK around 20 times for a Savage Werewolf belt to drop, getting same drops most of the time.

Wasted 120 Gladiator Proof for a chance to complete the Knight of the Circle style. 4/6 drops were Helmet.

This is more than enough for me to believe firmly that we are talking about a completely BROKEN RNG system. If it's not broken, then it's certainly designed to give you low drop rates for needed items.

I Ran Castle Thorn over 40 times for a crimson necklace, and even cycled through toons. The only way I ended up getting the necklace was due to someone else hitting level 50 before the last boss and it dropped for him. Luckily it scaled to my level.

About a month ago I spent around ~1.6M AP trying to get a Potentates shield. I got 1 shield, 1 bow, 1 2h, and about 90 rings/necklaces. About a week ago I spent around ~1.4M AP trying to get a deadly 2h. Same story, I got one (in a terrible trait of course, but who cares, it was getting transmuted anyhow), but once again, I had DOZENS of other deadly items. God only knows how many rings/necklaces... As I previously stated, RNG is weighted toward specific items without a doubt.

I also have reason to believe that at some point in time something determines a random seed for RNG per character (likely upon character creation) which ultimately plays a factor as to RNG you have on that character for specific items. No joke, I caught upwards of a couple thousand fish a few years back on one of my characters and did not get a single perfect roe. I even went as far as submitting a ticket because something was clearly "broken". Went on another character, and had multiple roe with a single stack of fish. Some of my characters definitely have better luck with having loot drops then others when farming nodes/chests/etc.

VoxAdActa

gatekeeper13 wrote: »

Scion_of_Yggdrasil wrote: »

There are many ways to "randomize" drops. We are trying to say that ESO is not using a fair or reasonable method. But I digress. I don't know any more than those claiming "this is random." After a quick google of "rng" this was suggested. It really is fascinating stuff. Clearly, this is a recurring subject for debate.

Fanboys will refuse to believe you even if you bring them the game code with the rng algorithms. They just want to disagree.

40+ CR runs with no Siroria Inferno for any group member neither in boss loot or reward container makes perfect sense for them.

And yet, there are a lot of people who HAVE gotten Siroria Inferno. Are you trying to claim that ZOS RNG is out to get you, personally? How does that even work? The system says "Hey, screw that guy, let's only give the inferno staff to all these other people but definitely NOT him!"?

rrimöykk

I've done Hel Ra twice a day ever since AY got buffed. Still looking for 1h axe. Tell me about rng.

LightYagami

regime211 wrote: »

How is it that a 4 man group runs scalecaller, and not one single person got a piece of medium armor? That isn't RNG at all! The loot drop table needs some serious adjusting. You can't expect people to grind dungeons when things like that happens!

Sample size of 4 isn't significant from the point of view of statistics.

You may search "law of large numbers" to know the relationship between number of experiments and theoretical probability.