On RNG - better RNG on certain characters?

Raudgrani · June 2020

I guess we've been over this some several times, and I know it's much psychological, easily biased and what not. But what's your personal impression on this?
I spoke with a couple of friends a while ago, about some characters being "luckier" than others. That there might be some hidden "luck factor" for every character and so on. It's also an old "truth", that RNG should be better on Sorcerers than on others and so on.

I have a Dunmer stamblade. And it's so "lucky" I'm pretty baffled by it. I tend to actually forget about it, but being constantly reminded of it. The last few days I have really seen prime examples of it. I was in a "harrowstorm farming group". The other 3 guys had been farming for like 4 hours, having no furnishing plans at all. I join the group, and from like 6-7 harrowstorms, I have 2 purple furnishing plans, and 2 blue ones.
Next day, I go into Labyrinthian with said character, and I have one blue Solitude furnishing plan, TWO of the new paintings (over maximum 2 minutes) and three Stone Husk fragments - on one single "runabout" (looting chests and urns outside and inside) of like 20 minutes, maximum.
Next day, Labyrinthian again, purple and blue plans - random old purple plan, and another blue Solitude plan. Doing a harrowstorm on the way out, having another purple vampiric plan. Went into Nchuthnkarst, had a blue and a purple furnishing plan from like the first dozen dwemer pots - then I left, because I know there's like a 30 minute "unofficial cooldown" on finding plans like that, which seems to be pretty real and not superstition. Some people say higher ranked crafters are more likely to find good (blue/purple) furnishing plans, well - my stamblade haven't done any crafting at all, ever. She's below lvl 5 in all those areas, what she knows is from reading books if anything.

I've also found quite a few leads on this character, like at first or second try - after grinding for it hours on end on other characters. A few weeks ago also, found an Imperial motif book in a backpack in Moongrave Fane (only one I've ever found). All coincidence you might say, yes for sure. But thing is, I'm generally very unlucky in this game. At least on most other characters.

Further on, I have an orc Dragonknight. Fully leveled crafting, but he knows no traits at all, knowing very few furnishing plans etc. - but I keep getting good master writs on him, and the few times I really have any golden materials in hireling mails, you can almost be sure it's in his mails. He's also weirdly lucky with fishing. I tend to have way more Perfect Roe with him, I can clear out like 2 fishing holes, and almost have a guaranteed drop of Perfect Roe. He's not "lucky" when it comes to finding stuff in general, like the stamblade - but things crafting related, he's easily the best (he's an orc after all?).

So, is there anything at all to all this according to you? Do you have any "lucky toons"? Do you believe there's some kind of "luck factor" for your characters, or just something about them making them "luckier" in finding things? Quite a few long time players I've spoken to are like "Yeah, without doubt". I tend to think it's true too, however scientific minded I'd like to think I am. Question is, could/would the devs really put enough efforts into such a thing to make it real? If so, why? Maybe it's a side effect of some other stats or whatever, that you can't really see on any stat sheet?

twev · June 2020

Similar in other games, and in talking to a lot of experienced players and guild mates, sharing notes and discussing it for years, I've concluded that many or most games have a 'seed' created during creation that influences a character's luck in certain specific ways, increasing or decreasing it from an average baseline a few 'points'.

Kalik_Gold · June 2020

Agree my Redguard (Stamina) Nightblade has better luck than my other guys. Haven’t PvE’d on him awhile but he has gotten more skin drops from Bal in IC than my other guys lately.

Raudgrani · June 2020

Speaking of these things, did my crafting writs today - and my orc DK had a FULL Chromium plating in his writ reward coffer, and a golden clothier master writ (only 88 vouchers, but anyway). I know people are like "it's all in your head dude", yes maybe it is - but then it's a lot in my head a lot of times on these two specific characters. LOL

My main is a bit of the contrary. Constantly like "Oh a MASTER chest! *click clack* Hmm... Wow... A purple powered Spinner's battle axe, well that's... Nice... Nuzhimeh, will you get over here just a second?". He's simply impossible. Go to a public dungeon to find furnishing plans, return with one known green base game furnishing plan, and maybe even a white one.

ImmortalCX · June 2020

One possibility here, is that they recognize that an account with many alts, if they all have "good" luck, the player will too easily get everything.

So perhaps they reduce the luck of many characters so that the account doesnt get too much stuff.

ImmortalCX · June 2020

It could also be account wide luck is metered out. This would be pretty easy for someone with many crafting alts to test.

When you are running dailies, do you more often get good drops early on in the process? The hypothesis is that if an early character gets a really good drop, then later characters wont.

Raudgrani · June 2020

ImmortalCX wrote: »

One possibility here, is that they recognize that an account with many alts, if they all have "good" luck, the player will too easily get everything.

So perhaps they reduce the luck of many characters so that the account doesnt get too much stuff.

Dunno really. If there's anything like a luck factor at all, I guess it would be kind of random(?). I only have like 1½ "lucky" ones, out of 18 possible. None other have stood out in any particular way, of course I find an occasional good item etc. on some of the others, but not over and over again. :-)

I know an older woman who's in a guild I'm in also, and we do trials every now and then. And she seems to be stupidly lucky with one of her toons, her "main" I guess. I don't think she has too many characters at all, but she's always (quite literally) having the good/rare gear people want from trials, and have motifs and such all the time. She's frankly not a very good player, but she's always more than very welcome, because of this particular weird luck.

InAMinute · June 2020

Many years ago, I played a lot of Diablo III, over a thousand hours both solo and in small groups with a work colleague. I became convinced that my luck with the good drops was considerably worse than others. I would watch a video of someone running a GRift and the minimap would be so covered with sparklies that you couldn't see it (I would count easily 15+ drops) whereas I would only get one or two at the same level. When running with friends they would constantly get 5x or more the drops I would get.

A while ago I saw a video on youtube (sorry I can't remember where) that discussed this and the idea was the initial seed for the random numbers was based on the username of the player. While I can't vouch for the information, it explained so much what I saw when playing Diablo.

As for Elder Scrolls, I haven't noticed anything like that here. The daily drops don't seem to be too good or bad to be noticeable, and all other drops seem to be in line with my expectations. I am using a different username here though

Raudgrani · June 2020

InAMinute wrote: »

Many years ago, I played a lot of Diablo III, over a thousand hours both solo and in small groups with a work colleague. I became convinced that my luck with the good drops was considerably worse than others. I would watch a video of someone running a GRift and the minimap would be so covered with sparklies that you couldn't see it (I would count easily 15+ drops) whereas I would only get one or two at the same level. When running with friends they would constantly get 5x or more the drops I would get.

A while ago I saw a video on youtube (sorry I can't remember where) that discussed this and the idea was the initial seed for the random numbers was based on the username of the player. While I can't vouch for the information, it explained so much what I saw when playing Diablo.

As for Elder Scrolls, I haven't noticed anything like that here. The daily drops don't seem to be too good or bad to be noticeable, and all other drops seem to be in line with my expectations. I am using a different username here though

Interesting for sure. I know a lot of people believe in this "moment of creation" theory, frankly a little like believing in horoscopes and such in real life - and I would laugh at it, if I didn't have my dear Dunmer stamblade hahaha... She even got her own VMA bow when she was new, at the very first run. No flawless run, but that's my fault and not hers.

People who don't believe in this at all, probably never had a character like this. It's not like I can wish for things like "Please gimme a Lokkestiiz helmet this run, please!", not in any way - but quality of loot and chances for rare drops - no doubt higher. There must be a limit as to when "coincidence" is not a coincidence anymore, would be unscientific to claim otherwise. This is after all a man made game, programmed by humans - and there is no REAL genuine man made RNG afaik.

Maybe they added it as a fun thing, for people to talk about just like this?

jaws343 · June 2020

ImmortalCX wrote: »

It could also be account wide luck is metered out. This would be pretty easy for someone with many crafting alts to test.

When you are running dailies, do you more often get good drops early on in the process? The hypothesis is that if an early character gets a really good drop, then later characters wont.

I think the problem is we already know that master writ drops are already reliant on the character's knowledge of motifs. So, unless all of your alts know all of the same style motifs, you will never have a fair comparison.

Raudgrani · June 2020

jaws343 wrote: »

ImmortalCX wrote: »

It could also be account wide luck is metered out. This would be pretty easy for someone with many crafting alts to test.

When you are running dailies, do you more often get good drops early on in the process? The hypothesis is that if an early character gets a really good drop, then later characters wont.

I think the problem is we already know that master writ drops are already reliant on the character's knowledge of motifs. So, unless all of your alts know all of the same style motifs, you will never have a fair comparison.

I've heard that too. But my orc crafter, who generally gets the gold ones, is merely lvl 50 on all crafts, and maybe has like 1-3 traits known in various crafts, and the only motifs he knows are ones I knew I already had on my main "master crafter" + the base game racial ones. I might have accidentally consumed a few motifs when clearing inventory and opening festival coffers etc., but he has ZERO full styles completed. None.

My main is the second best for getting gold master writs, but he's literally a master crafter and knows quite a few motifs from the few styles he has not yet completed. Maybe the orc race + some kind of "good luck" is coming into play there? I haven't used him too much in PVE, so I'm not really sure how his "luck" is in general.

finehair · June 2020

Well considering amount of people farming vma inferno staff and not getting it on their 999373737th run while my melee stam build gets perfected nirnhoned inferno staff on my first ever vma clear I can say RNG is a lie. I did vma 4 times and got 2 inferno staves, 1 precise resto and 1 defending ice staff.
I don't have a magicka character in my account. I need anything melee...

Raudgrani · June 2020

finehair wrote: »

Well considering amount of people farming vma inferno staff and not getting it on their 999373737th run while my melee stam build gets perfected nirnhoned inferno staff on my first ever vma clear I can say RNG is a lie. I did vma 4 times and got 2 inferno staves, 1 precise resto and 1 defending ice staff.
I don't have a magicka character in my account. I need anything melee...

Typical example of "rigged RNG", yes. I mainly play stam in general, and I could build a f*****g house of VMA staves. Last time I ran VMA, it was on a petsorc (very bad and frustrating run in general btw), I had a VMA bow - and I DID it on the sorc because I wanted a bow, because this is how the game works. Needed an extra bow for a new PVE werewolf (well needed is a strong word, but I wanted him to be as good as possible in human form too).

I think I have 5 bows, and had three of them on mag toons, despite that I've just done it a few times on magicka characters at all - maybe 4-5 times in total!

Mindcr0w · June 2020

None of you people espousing this conspiracy theory understand what random means, or what negativity bias means.

This whole "RNG isn't really random" idea exists in every game ever that has random loot drops, especially MMO's.

Funny how with all the people who go around datamining these games, searching around in the code, even creating entire functioning copies of the game in the form of private servers for some of them, no one ever finds any code that would create such character RNG bias. It is almost as if the bias really does exist only in your mind! 🤔

Raudgrani · June 2020

Mindcr0w wrote: »

None of you people espousing this conspiracy theory understand what random means, or what negativity bias means.

This whole "RNG isn't really random" idea exists in every game ever that has random loot drops, especially MMO's.

Funny how with all the people who go around datamining these games, searching around in the code, even creating entire functioning copies of the game in the form of private servers for some of them, no one ever finds any code that would create such character RNG bias. It is almost as if the bias really does exist only in your mind! 🤔

Well, it's not like several on-line casinos etc. haven't gone out of business and gone into legal troubles, because they have had "rigged games", with a RNG in favor of the house, and not being really random such as a real life deck of cards. Question is just why anyone would like to do this, or maybe even the RNG has some sort of factor using some sort of code of your character, and by coincidence this works in favor of that particular character. Without it ever being really intended.

I knew some sober mind would come here with their bias talk, which is why I mention it in the very first sentence - if you ever even bothered reading even that far. But I see what I see, and this game isn't ruled by "cosmic chaos" like our world, byt by code written by humans. It could easily pull RNG one way or the other. It's not like it has not been happening before.

Raudgrani · June 2020

[Quoted post has been removed.]

I compared this to Casinos, as an example of RNG not being truly random - despite the claim that it is. I also elaborated about why there would be a reason to do this, and added the notion that it might be unintentional but still real. But I suppose you didn't read that phrase either. You just seem like a nasty personality with your crying/laughing smileys, having nothing to really add to the discussion - with your wickerman arguments, and your patronizing attitude. Truly sad, and I hope for your own sake you are a bit more smooth in real social relations.

I'm trying to understand why it makes no sense for me to try and farm furnishing plans (for example) on some of my toons that I'm much more comfortable with - believe me, I'm trying (because of the supposed "cooldown" on looting blue/purple motifs). In a crushing majority of all the times I do - I get nothing or total junk, while I can hardly remember NOT finding at least something I can at least sell for some X0k gold on this stamblade. Be it something like a blue highelf furnishing or a purple dwemer armor motif, but that's at least something.

DreamsUnderStars · June 2020

"It's also an old "truth", that RNG should be better on Sorcerers than on others"

Fascinating. Never heard of this before. Why do you think it is?

Mindcr0w · June 2020

Raudgrani wrote: »

I compared this to Casinos, as an example of RNG not being truly random - despite the claim that it is. I also elaborated about why there would be a reason to do this, and added the notion that it might be unintentional but still real. But I suppose you didn't read that phrase either.

Nope still read it.

The thing you seem to be missing in your casino example is that in those cases someone found the issue in the code.

No one ever finds the issues you are describing in games like ESO. Hundreds of games being combed over by thousands of people for decades and nothing. The occasional bug? Sure. Something that would cause long term RNG skewing across an entire genre of games? Never.

And when people do actually bother recording large sample sizes of data over meaningful amounts of time the result is always the same. It is all random. Or at least as random as a computer can reasonably make it.

So yes, I can be dismissive when people go on about nonsense with nothing but their "feelings" and what they "remember" to back them up, but until you come back with actual data to back your claims up you have nothing.

And something that can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed just as easily.

And if you consider disagreeing strongly with you and providing reasons why I'd disagree to be "having nothing to add", well then that is your bias as well.

Raudgrani · June 2020

Mindcr0w wrote: »

Raudgrani wrote: »

I compared this to Casinos, as an example of RNG not being truly random - despite the claim that it is. I also elaborated about why there would be a reason to do this, and added the notion that it might be unintentional but still real. But I suppose you didn't read that phrase either.

Nope still read it.

The thing you seem to be missing in your casino example is that in those cases someone found the issue in the code.

No one ever finds the issues you are describing in games like ESO. Hundreds of games being combed over by thousands of people for decades and nothing. The occasional bug? Sure. Something that would cause long term RNG skewing across an entire genre of games? Never.

And when people do actually bother recording large sample sizes of data over meaningful amounts of time the result is always the same. It is all random. Or at least as random as a computer can reasonably make it.

So yes, I can be dismissive when people go on about nonsense with nothing but their "feelings" and what they "remember" to back them up, but until you come back with actual data to back your claims up you have nothing.

And something that can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed just as easily.

And if you consider disagreeing strongly with you and providing reasons why I'd disagree to be "having nothing to add", well then that is your bias as well.

That's a bit better than before.

I am not paid to play ESO. I don't have any means to track my loot, and I don't have access to server side code of ESO, not am I able to extract any meaningful (or not meaningful) data from the client side code, nor do I play enough to generate "meaningful amounts" of data to get any kind of minuscule clarity about this.

But it's this "bad" and obvious, the most recent example are the harrowstorms. On my old trustworthy Nord Stamplar, I can pretty much rush a fresh harrowstorm and bring down some 1-1½ witch pikes SOLO, before others arrive - I don't claim I can solo an entire harrowstorm, but I need not more than like 1-2 other random people to share the aggro a bit. There are limits to what I can do even on him.
On the Stamblade, yeah damage is higher - but it's far too squishy, and lag and abilities not going off gets me killed easilty, so I wait for more people to arrive before I even start dancing. BUT, every time the fight is over, I find some ashes and a vampire family tree or whatever when I do it on my Stamplar, on my Stamblade at least often, I get a motif. So often that others are like "spooked" and even annoyed.

I trashed THIRTY harrowstorms on said Stamplar, not ONE single motif. I've done some +40 on my Stamblade, and I have had more than a dozen motifs, and made millions of gold selling them. Stamplar 0 vs Stamblade +12.

Point is, I'd much rather just burn every harrowstorm on my stamplar, but it gives me zero stuff to sell, none. Literally. Yet to get ONE motif on him. In that case, maybe it's set to reward "less good players"? I dunnu, because I usually die once or more every time on my stamblade.

Lysette · June 2020

the thing with randomness is - if you choose the boundaries wisely, you will find that about 1/3 is over-performing, 1/3 is in the middle "average" group and 1/3 is under-performing - gamblers call this the "rule of thirds" - so the majority will feel either to be lucky or at a disadvantage - this is just what randomness is like.

So with normal randomness you are twice as likely to get a non-average result than getting an average result - and this leads to people developing superstitious ideas about the matter - whilst it is just normal randomness,

Mindcr0w · June 2020

You're still providing nothing but anecdotes and random guesses. I'm not blowing smoke when I say people have actually looked into these things. It was only a few months back someone posted a spreadsheet with several months worth of daily writ results for multiple characters in one of the RNG conspiracy threads for writs. Hundreds if not thousands of data points, across multiple characters, over many months, all showing that RNG really is RNG.

But it is always the same thing with these RNG theories. People swear up and down that there is something, intentional or otherwise, in the code that skews it. They base it on nothing but feelings and undocumented remembrances. Then someone comes along with data to show they are wrong. Then some new feature gets added to the game and all the code conspiracists jump up and down claiming that this time it is for real. This time it is just too obvious. Eventually someone comes along with real data showing otherwise, and the cycle repeats over and over.

The funny thing is, I've seen this same thing happen again and again since the 90's and I'd swear that as persistent an issue as it is, that it is becoming less so as people become more familiar with statistics and bias. But of course I have nothing to back that up other than my own undocumented observations. 🤷‍♂️

xaraan · June 2020

I think it's possible. Not counting the seed theory mentioned, there are things in game that are coded to give you better drop chances on specific things - better gear from treasure chests, better chance at master writs with the amount of motifs/traits learned, etc. And I could see something being coded badly and being effected by those conditions even if they were not supposed to be. I could easily see the increase chance an better treasure CP passive being accidently tacked onto looting a chest or 'pile' after a harrowstorm or anchor or geyser for example. That's not even taking into account when they purposefully code something to use player stats within the chance.

Ratzkifal · June 2020

It's probably superstition but I always felt like I was getting more staves on stam characters and more bows etc on mag characters.

Lysette · June 2020

Ratzkifal wrote: »

It's probably superstition but I always felt like I was getting more staves on stam characters and more bows etc on mag characters.

I will try to explain this with a simple example - 4 bits, how likely is it to get an average result of 2 bits 1 and 2 bits 0?

Well there are 6 ways to place those bits - out of 16 total = 37.5% for the average result.
those 3 set or 3 empty have a probability of 25% each - and all empty or all set is 6.25% each.

So if you choose any side outside of the average your chance to get this is just 25+6.25 = 31,25% - it is your own expectation which lets you feel like this, because what you don't want to get has roughly about twice the chance than what you hope for. But this is just normal randomness, nothing more.

Ratzkifal · June 2020

Lysette wrote: »

Ratzkifal wrote: »

It's probably superstition but I always felt like I was getting more staves on stam characters and more bows etc on mag characters.

I will try to explain this with a simple example - 4 bits, how likely is it to get an average result of 2 bits 1 and 2 bits 0?

Well there are 6 ways to place those bits - out of 16 total = 37.5% for the average result.
those 3 set or 3 empty have a probability of 25% each - and all empty or all set is 6.25% each.

So if you choose any side outside of the average your chance to get this is just 25+6.25 = 31,25% - it is your own expectation which lets you feel like this, because what you don't want to get has roughly about twice the chance than what you hope for. But this is just normal randomness, nothing more.

That example wasn't all that simple to be honest

And no, the expectation thing is not it, because I intentionally go on the opposite spec of what I want and it seems to work.
I do get what you are trying to say though and I suspect it's just RNG and interpreting too much into a small sample size (since I didn't actually need to do a lot of farming for my vMA staves).

Lysette · June 2020

Ratzkifal wrote: »

Lysette wrote: »

Ratzkifal wrote: »

It's probably superstition but I always felt like I was getting more staves on stam characters and more bows etc on mag characters.

I will try to explain this with a simple example - 4 bits, how likely is it to get an average result of 2 bits 1 and 2 bits 0?

Well there are 6 ways to place those bits - out of 16 total = 37.5% for the average result.
those 3 set or 3 empty have a probability of 25% each - and all empty or all set is 6.25% each.

So if you choose any side outside of the average your chance to get this is just 25+6.25 = 31,25% - it is your own expectation which lets you feel like this, because what you don't want to get has roughly about twice the chance than what you hope for. But this is just normal randomness, nothing more.

That example wasn't all that simple to be honest

And no, the expectation thing is not it, because I intentionally go on the opposite spec of what I want and it seems to work.
I do get what you are trying to say though and I suspect it's just RNG and interpreting too much into a small sample size (since I didn't actually need to do a lot of farming for my vMA staves).

well those 6 ways are 0+1, 0+2, 0+3, 1+2, 1+3, 2+3 set. And you have just 4 ways to let one bit empty which is 25%, same for 1 bit set and the rest empty - and there is just 1 way each to have all empty or all set .- which is 6.25% each .- 1 out of 16.

It is just a misconception people have that they would be likely to get an average outcome, whilst in fact it is more likely to not get an average outcome - but once you choose one or the other side the odds to get what you want are stacked against you, just by plain normal randomness.

And of course it is more likely to not be unlucky than to be lucky .- your approach to it transferred to my example would deliver 6.25+25+37.5/2 = 50% - this is then like throwing a coin.

newtinmpls · June 2020

Mindcr0w wrote: »

this thread is still full of people espousing nonsense

Pish and tosh.

This thread is espousing a fun discussion about some characters are consistently luckier than others. And they are. Which does not go against RNG in any way, since if people have "random" luck, then some by chance will be luckier or unluckier.

I have a particular character, Vos, who (long backstory short) was an accountant and is now learning to be a "Pirate" (running the thieves guild quests). Vos is a High Elf, so he doesn't have the benefit of lovely racial passives, as does his friend. However, just looking at the displayed % chance on the screen, RNG claims he has a "75%" of pick-pocketing someone. And fails 3 times out of 4. Heck I've even seen him fail twice in a row where it was supposed to be a 100% chance.

My beloved husband, who also plays (and runs the "friend" noted above) finds this hilarious - he's looking at my screen, with his character "encouraging" mine, and then cackles when Vos completely F's it up.

Vos's inability to pick the "easiest" of pockets has become humorously legendary with our group, and it's fun.

Then there is another friend of mine, who has one character in particular who the RNG gods just won't stop blessing. Finds Nirn about every 5 nodes, gets drops that I drool at. The totally hilarious part of this is that the PLAYER is an agnostic, but the CHARACTER is quite reverent and continually throws out comments about how he has found/been blessed with such-and-so "Praise Akatosh".

ImmortalCX · June 2020

Raudgrani wrote: »

ImmortalCX wrote: »

One possibility here, is that they recognize that an account with many alts, if they all have "good" luck, the player will too easily get everything.

So perhaps they reduce the luck of many characters so that the account doesnt get too much stuff.

Dunno really. If there's anything like a luck factor at all, I guess it would be kind of random(?). I only have like 1½ "lucky" ones, out of 18 possible. None other have stood out in any particular way, of course I find an occasional good item etc. on some of the others, but not over and over again. :-)

I know an older woman who's in a guild I'm in also, and we do trials every now and then. And she seems to be stupidly lucky with one of her toons, her "main" I guess. I don't think she has too many characters at all, but she's always (quite literally) having the good/rare gear people want from trials, and have motifs and such all the time. She's frankly not a very good player, but she's always more than very welcome, because of this particular weird luck.

Are trial drops to the whole group and then divvied up, or are you saying that bringing her along helps everyone else's luck?

Lysette · June 2020

ImmortalCX wrote: »

Raudgrani wrote: »

ImmortalCX wrote: »

One possibility here, is that they recognize that an account with many alts, if they all have "good" luck, the player will too easily get everything.

So perhaps they reduce the luck of many characters so that the account doesnt get too much stuff.

Dunno really. If there's anything like a luck factor at all, I guess it would be kind of random(?). I only have like 1½ "lucky" ones, out of 18 possible. None other have stood out in any particular way, of course I find an occasional good item etc. on some of the others, but not over and over again. :-)

I know an older woman who's in a guild I'm in also, and we do trials every now and then. And she seems to be stupidly lucky with one of her toons, her "main" I guess. I don't think she has too many characters at all, but she's always (quite literally) having the good/rare gear people want from trials, and have motifs and such all the time. She's frankly not a very good player, but she's always more than very welcome, because of this particular weird luck.

Are trial drops to the whole group and then divvied up, or are you saying that bringing her along helps everyone else's luck?

Hahaha, now we arrived at the lucky charm level - so what to do with it - rub her back, dance in counter-clockwise circles around her to get some luck - this discussion is really funny. What about wearing a certain costume to raise your luck?

WhyMustItBe · June 2020

I heard somewhere that if you equip a bow and shoot an arrow at the larger moon while it is at least 2/3 full you will get an invisible buff to luck for 24 in-game hours (time estimates vary) with a lunar cycle cooldown, but a mysterious figure clad in black will sometimes appear (only visible to you) and perform various detrimental acts (pick your pocket, stab you, sing obnoxious drinking songs constantly), so as to balance the positive gains.

"Watch the skies, traveler."

ImmortalCX · June 2020

People who say "its all RNG" are taking the position that you can't prove its not an equal distribution, that every character has the same chance. Thats a pretty easy position to defend. Kinda like saying "God does not exist", because there isn't any tangible proof. This is a great argument for people who want to be right.

Proving that RNG is biased is more difficult.

One thing I'd like to mention is that there is obvious logic surrounding RNG. For instance with antiquity leads. When you already have an open lead, you wont get that same lead again until you complete the original one.

So somewhere in the code, at a bare minimum, there is a line that checks to see.. if character has lead, then don't grant character this lead. Unknown if this check happens before the roll or after.

Similar logic is used for crown crates; they don't grant your account a unique item you already have it.

The point is to say that there are logic conditions around the RNG. Meaning that potentially ANY rng in the game could have logic built around it.

I can see the value of "modifying" RNG so that some players do not feel unfairly punished. Or to make them feel "lucky" so they keep playing. (Is it any coincidence that I got a radiant apex mount from a free crown crate soon after I started?) So there is motive to keep the rng not too punishing, but not too easy.

Another example, IME with the antiquity system, is that lead drops from dungeon bosses dont follow a normal distribution. IME collecting leads, drops in dungeons either happend in the first few runs, or it took 25+ runs. I didn't follow a normal distribution. Either I got it in runs 2-3 or after 25. A normal distribution would have some that took 7, some that took 17, etc.

(And of the dungeon that took me over 25 runs, there is evidence that other players got it in a few runs, so we know its not just that dungeon that has difficult drops.)

So if it was pure RNG, the chance of getting all the dungeon leads in runs 1-3 on four of the dungeons means drop % is a pretty high chance. If the chance was the same for every dungeon, then NOT getting it over 25 runs would be HIGHLY UNLIKELY. Possible, yes, but very unlikely.

One good explanation is that each account has certain items that are made harder. The majority of items are pretty easy, so players can make good progress through the antiquity system.

They want the system to feel approachable and not punishing. Yet on the other hand they want it to take time and have the players feel like the accomplished something.

So in summary:
1) There is evidence that there is logic surrounding RNG.

2) There is motive for RNG to be "tweaked" or modified to improve the gaming experience.

3) Identifying and proving patterns is much harder than proving the converse (that its just strict rng.)