Need advice from regular crate gamblers

winterscrolls229prerb18_ESO

Okay.. so a dumb story. I like using game microtransactions as little mini rewards for keeping the chain going on new habits in real life. The game and company that previously benefited from this turned south, and with my new found love of eso, decided to do the unimagineable and bought 4 gambling crates.

It turned out a very interesting experience... opening them up i was so dismayed by what i got.. both the gem count (i only did this because i wanted the hackysack emote from the gloomspore crates, and figured id get the gems by doing it.. but its only 3 gems per crate.. no way im paying that much for an emote). Anyway.. it was completely woeful... until the very last card of the 4th crate. It turned out to be a mount from the one less than apex (legendary?) and it also was the same kind as i always use. My jaw dropped and i was so happy.

So.. before i do this again, i have no doubt there's a very elaborate gambling engine that drives the drops, same as with loot etc, to make it do exactly what some psychologist probably states is the best way to get people to do it again. My question for the regular gamblers would be.. how does this engine work? Was what happened to me actually chance? Does it make sure that you always get something good out of a set of crates? Do the good times last a bit longer before they give you nothing once they believe you're addicted so you just get more thinking about the last good thing you got?

If its dumb and they make sure they look after you after every set, i'll probably get more.. but if its any worse than that as far as gambling algorithim goes, i'll just set it aside for more months of eso plus or find something else.

Thanks for any tips.

shrekt4303

I've dropped 15k crowns on loot boxes before. Lots of legendaries and no Apex reward. If your looking for something specific you can sell rewards for more gems and buy it. I think lootboxes is a terrible way to force ppl to spend to get the best stuff, but the rewards aren't bad. If you got the money for it do it. If money is tight it's not worth it

Raisin

Don't ever buy crates expecting a mount, is my advice. Getting one from 4 crates (even if not Apex) was very lucky. There is definitely no guarantee of getting at least one good thing -- even in a set of 15.
How complex the algorithm goes as far as taking your past behaviors and gains into account, I do not know. But if you do buy crown crates, set yourself a realistic expectation of what you're going for. Don't go in hoping for 'something good'.
Most of the gems only come in once you start getting duplicates, so you need to have cleared out a lot of the rewards to even get to that point.

TropicsDelight

Not totally sure how ESO works but if a slot machine gaming company rigged machines to pay according to an algorithm on how a person plays instead of being truly random the people working for that company that did that would end up in jail. That would break a slew of gaming laws.

I would guess it is random, the oddity people see is simply the occasional occurence you get from true randomness and the data outliers that are expected to appear from time to time.

Isarii

TropicsDelight wrote: »

Not totally sure how ESO works but if a slot machine gaming company rigged machines to pay according to an algorithm on how a person plays instead of being truly random the people working for that company that did that would end up in jail. That would break a slew of gaming laws.

But it's perfectly legal for video game companies to do and they've patented all sorts of technology to do it with.

It should be treated as gambling because it obviously is, but the regulation hasn't caught up with the companies yet so they're doing everything they can to wring money from rubes in the meantime.

We don't necessarily know that ESO is going all out to manipulate people with crown crates, but they currently have the vampirism cure you can get for a brief chat with an NPC and a few gold in game as a featured, 800 crown item in the store - so I'm not inclined to give them any benefit of the doubt when it comes to the unverifiable benevolence of their monetization.

TropicsDelight

But it's perfectly legal for video game companies to do and they've patented all sorts of technology to do it with.

If that could ever be proven there are more than a few lawyers who would happily take on a class action lawsuit against the gaming companies on behalf of the playerbases, and the gaming companies would lose that case if there was such technology removing randomness from in game gambling and purposely giving people either greater, or worse rewards.

From a civil point of view there is no way they would be let off with manipulating the rewards like that if it went to court. BUT you would HAVE to know they are in fact actually running algorithms that do as you say and be able to prove it in a court of law.

From a civil point of view I question the legality, and if this ever went to court and it was known these companies were doing this the laws would change swiftly to add the criminal component.

If I was the CEO of ZOS I would ensure the system ran on pure RNG, anything different and they are just asking for trouble down the road.

Isarii

Your post strikes me as the perspective of someone who thinks they know the legal system works but has never actually taken a law course. Lootboxes are not considered gambling, and their entire viability as a monetization vehicle hinges on that. There is no promise of complete randomness being made by the companies. There would be no standing at all for a lawsuit.

TropicsDelight

We don't necessarily know that ESO is going all out to manipulate people with crown crates, but they currently have the vampirism cure you can get for a brief chat with an NPC and a few gold in game as a featured, 800 crown item in the store

That one is bizarre. It is even more insane because on the sale of the vampirism curse they state it can easily be cured by a Priest of Arkay. Then on the very next sale item you have an 800 crown vampirism cure. ZOS needs to keep a closer eye on the crown store for that kind of stuff and kill it, it makes them look bad and only manages to leave a sour taste in the playerbases mouth to even see such a thing, let alone the poor sap who buys that and then finds out in chat they could have gotten cured for a few hundred gold.

ESO loses more than they will ever gain with that crown store item. They need to be smart about the crown store offerings, and that cure is not a smart offering and just makes them look bad. There are far better avenues of revenue generation for the crown store that can be implemented if they are smart. Heck, they can hire me and I would make them millions fixing some cosmetic issues and adding new item types to the crown store, crates, and gem store. All the while not ticking off the players while doing so.

Isarii

Yeah man, I can't imagine the people who actually buy that - or even the bite.

If I paid for either one of those and later found out how easily you can get them through gameplay, I'm pretty confident I'd rage quit then and there.

Scion_of_Yggdrasil

Just popping in here to applaud the use of the phrase "gambling" crate. And now I will take my leave. *tips hat and exits*

winterscrolls229prerb18_ESO

Thanks for all the insightful data. Sounds like i can have a few more goes, until im not happy then be prepared to back off quickly. Its their business how they milk gamblers, but its a shame they didn't just go for a "guaranteed gold card" like with the preview crates. Its not like there isn't tonnes of items to give out.

For real world gambling, from talking to someone who worked on the software for these years ago.. my understanding is they're basically just skimming machines.. they pay back a certain percentage of what they put in so either way its a guaranteed profit for the operator. It sounds right if there's government regulation on what the minimum is they need to pay out, but as long as that is done, they can be as interesting as they want with milking the person putting money in.

Also with eso.. its pretty obvious that loot drops are certainly not random. My current character is only in the mid 30's, but already now i've seen 3 or so bursty waves of loot.. ie when the game decides i need more it buffs the drops so that even random world mobs decide to drop purples. It seems to even take note about how my chests i've looted, get too many of these in a row and at best you're going to get greens. I doubt any sort of reward in eso is pure rng.

Nestor

The best expectations you can have about crates is no expectations.

RNG is a fickle mistress who can not be wooed or influenced or bargained with.

If you want to feel better about it, just treat the money like you lost it on the street and the crates are free. Then anything you get is a bonus.

Kiyakotari

I generally use in-game gold to purchase some crates when new seasons come out, because cosmetics (both character, and housing) are a big part of what I enjoy about ESO.

I have noticed that I seem to get better drop rates from the 4-pack crates than the 15-pack. This is of course purely anecdotal, and I have no hard numbers to back it up. If accurate, it's also annoying, given the per-crate price discrepancy between the two different packs. I do note that back when I had low-level characters, I seemed to get better rewards when opening crates on characters under level 50 than on my characters at CP. Others comment on the latter, as well, though again that's all anecdotal.

The data at this website, on the other hand, is not anecdotal, although it is community sourced. You may find it helpful.

If you are interested in obtaining rewards from the crown crates, it's always worth keeping an eye on the Twitch Drops Schedule here, and linking your Twitch account to your ESO account. You're not always guaranteed a crate drop, but they're pretty consistent if you watch streams on schedule (when drops are live, there will be a note under qualifying streams that indicate this). A twitch crate usually nets 4-5 gems.

Michae

The most crates I bought was 45 with Baandari ones. I didn't expect mounts, I had around 300 gems from Twitch drops and I figured I'd get some lower tier items I liked and enough gems for a dwarven spider mount. I spent 12k Crowns since the crates were on the discount and I got lucky. I got a horse, a senche and a radiant apex black spider. Those are the only times I got any mounts from crates, I bought maybe 100-150 in my whole 5 year ESO career, some with ESO+ Crowns, some for gold. So I'd recommend thinking of mounts as a bonus, not as the goal, and only to buy crates if you're fine with lower tier rewards.

prof-dracko

Crates are interesting since if you buy a lot you either get what you want or you get enough gems to buy it yourself. Whenever a new selection comes around I always buy 4, then use my eso+ crowns on another 4. That way I either get the (usually one or two) things I wanted or I can pick them out after. Since you can't get doubles of mounts, pets, cosmetics and emotes they give you various gems immediately on revealing them, so the more you play the better the odds are regardless. At the end of the 8 I usually have about 40 gems, so don'y do that banking on getting a legend mount unless you're prepared to be patient or spend a whole lot more cash.

Aptonoth

Isarii wrote: »

Your post strikes me as the perspective of someone who thinks they know the legal system works but has never actually taken a law course. Lootboxes are not considered gambling, and their entire viability as a monetization vehicle hinges on that. There is no promise of complete randomness being made by the companies. There would be no standing at all for a lawsuit.

In some countries they are in fact considered gambling. Lots of pressure in the US government to label them gambling. Heck even EA has recently started to try and label its games with "randomized mechanics" on its boxes to try and defuse the situation but naturally people started calling them on their bull.

At this point it's only a legal technicality they are not gambling. All the research done in the united kingdom and abroad clearly shows they have all the same negative impacts as real gambling including being even worst for minors and kids who have no self control.

Hanokihs

Well the luck you have is basically tied to what it is you want. I spend a lot of time playing with these, so here's my input:

If you like the potions/poisons (they're now as good as their crafted counterparts, so feel free to not spend a million gold/hours on flowers) and exp scrolls, the crates are a great way to get those items while fishing for more interesting cosmetics. If you're only interested in the basic-level cosmetic/housing items, then you can expect to draw cards for a little while until you can buy the one or two other things you want with gems; the amount of gems you get back increases (almost exponentially) as you collect more things and opportunities for duplicates. Five or six bundles of crates max should reliably wipe out those lower tiers, but naturally, YMMV. Maybe you'll exchange gems for a straggler or two.

When you start going for Apex and Radiant Apex mounts, that's where the real tricks come in. By which I mean, hopefully you have enough disposable income, in-game or otherwise, to drop about $200-300 on pulling any given Apex, and approximately $1000-1500 pulling any Radiant. (By the time you pull a Radiant that you've been actively fishing for, you should have all the Apex mounts unlocked, with a potential duplicate or two).

If you're after all three Radiant mounts, you're probably a crazy person, but also hopefully crazy-rich enough to afford about $3000-6000 by the time you get the third one, including duplicates of the other two you already own (because crates are just set up that way, and there's no failsafe that I know of to prevent the highest tiered items dropping more than once. I personally ended up with two or three Vitrine Wolves in the Radiant Apex debut season; that "feature" probably hasn't changed, because lol, why would it? Cashflow is cashflow).

I don't think anyone has mentioned spending more than that to get all 3, let alone a single Radiant, but not everyone posts about their results because they tend to get attacked on the forums for it. (So if you indeed have the disposable income to fling about on an experiment with the crates, just pretend you spent mostly in-game gold for them and you can circumvent most of the abuse from people who fail to realize that money is money, regardless of who spends it.)

If you care to this extent, hope this helps (and if not, it's whatevs, maybe someone else will)!

winterscrolls229prerb18_ESO

Hanokihs wrote: »

If you care to this extent, hope this helps (and if not, it's whatevs, maybe someone else will)!

Thanks for the insightful post. No i won't be doing this, but good to hear what the upper limit is from someone who has gone for it.

Thinking about it again realistically, gems for items in the 16 or 40 gem items would be the only realistic target. Yeah its pretty much rubbish otherwise. I guess my question is well answered by sobering up from the fantasy of expecting gambling crates to actually drop nice things. Great advice.

And if people do exist that spend thousands on crates on a whim, i guess they're not going to make guaranteed prize crates either for more than pets. Moving on

JKorr

The only thing that is absolutely guaranteed to be in the crates are the consumables. That is ostensibly what you are buying the crates for. That is the CYA for the company. The original announcement of the crates states they are bundling the consumables for a greater value than buying them separately.

Yes, no one wants the poisons/potion/food, and that isn't why people are buying them. But as long as the stated reason for the crates is the absolutely will be in there consumables, with a chance for other items, and a very rare chance for the apex rewards, then the bases are covered for the company.

This Thursday, we'll be introducing the first season of Crown Crates to the ESO Crown Store. Crown Crates are purchased through the Crown Store, and contain a randomized selection of useful consumables and collectibles that are valued more than the price of a single crate. In addition, they also offer a chance to obtain unique cosmetic items, pets, or mounts. Crown Crates include new and exclusive items, as well as some items you might have missed in previous limited time offers.

Whenever you purchase a Crown Crate, you will always be awarded four items, with the chance to get a fifth item. In the event you receive a mount, pet, costume or personality that you already own from your Crown Crate, you'll be awarded a new resource - Crown Gems - in its place. You will also have the option to convert several items obtained from Crown Crates to Crown Gems any time you want. Items that can be manually converted include potions, poisons, riding lessons, experience scrolls, and other utility-type items. Any Crown Gems you earn can then be used to purchase the collectible items of your choosing from the current Crown Crate season.

https://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en-us/news/post/25871

DarcyMardin

I don’t get the appeal of crates — I really don’t. But I also don’t get the appeal of any kind of gambling.

Never bought one, never will.

But I do pay cold, hard cash for crown store items that I like. (Houses, costumes, hairstyles, furniture without in-game recipes, mounts). Why more of these aren’t available, outside the crates/gems system, is a mystery to me, but saving the $$ I’d have otherwise spent is fine with me!

OneForSorrow

DarcyMardin wrote: »

I don’t get the appeal of crates — I really don’t. But I also don’t get the appeal of any kind of gambling.

Never bought one, never will.

But I do pay cold, hard cash for crown store items that I like. (Houses, costumes, hairstyles, furniture without in-game recipes, mounts). Why more of these aren’t available, outside the crates/gems system, is a mystery to me, but saving the $$ I’d have otherwise spent is fine with me!

Speaking for myself, I'll toss crowns left over from other purchases or from ESO + at crates from time to time if there are multiple things in that season of crates I want. Especially if they're low tier things like body markings or certain costumes. This means my chances of getting at least something neat is decent. If there is only thing I want I won't go for it. If all I want are mounts I won't go for it.

Aptonoth

Hanokihs wrote: »

Well the luck you have is basically tied to what it is you want. I spend a lot of time playing with these, so here's my input:

If you like the potions/poisons (they're now as good as their crafted counterparts, so feel free to not spend a million gold/hours on flowers) and exp scrolls, the crates are a great way to get those items while fishing for more interesting cosmetics. If you're only interested in the basic-level cosmetic/housing items, then you can expect to draw cards for a little while until you can buy the one or two other things you want with gems; the amount of gems you get back increases (almost exponentially) as you collect more things and opportunities for duplicates. Five or six bundles of crates max should reliably wipe out those lower tiers, but naturally, YMMV. Maybe you'll exchange gems for a straggler or two.

When you start going for Apex and Radiant Apex mounts, that's where the real tricks come in. By which I mean, hopefully you have enough disposable income, in-game or otherwise, to drop about $200-300 on pulling any given Apex, and approximately $1000-1500 pulling any Radiant. (By the time you pull a Radiant that you've been actively fishing for, you should have all the Apex mounts unlocked, with a potential duplicate or two).

If you're after all three Radiant mounts, you're probably a crazy person, but also hopefully crazy-rich enough to afford about $3000-6000 by the time you get the third one, including duplicates of the other two you already own (because crates are just set up that way, and there's no failsafe that I know of to prevent the highest tiered items dropping more than once. I personally ended up with two or three Vitrine Wolves in the Radiant Apex debut season; that "feature" probably hasn't changed, because lol, why would it? Cashflow is cashflow).

I don't think anyone has mentioned spending more than that to get all 3, let alone a single Radiant, but not everyone posts about their results because they tend to get attacked on the forums for it. (So if you indeed have the disposable income to fling about on an experiment with the crates, just pretend you spent mostly in-game gold for them and you can circumvent most of the abuse from people who fail to realize that money is money, regardless of who spends it.)

If you care to this extent, hope this helps (and if not, it's whatevs, maybe someone else will)!

Never realized how lucky I was getting two radiant apex fo 800. An another only 500 from another from a different crate.

winterscrolls229prerb18_ESO

Gadamlub14_ESO wrote: »

[Quoted post was removed]

Well, that's the thing, im not because i was trying to work it out.

Its been a few weeks and i pretty much come to a conclusion.. the fact that people exist that do spend thousands of dollars on crates means that the odds will never be good enough to make me happy. I wouldn't be surprised if they've come up with profiles and all sorts of rules and things to change the odds, but im not spending enough money to bother training their psychological gambling engine (assuming it exists).

Yeah im going to keep my lucky score and take it as a positive moment in the game, but its luck. Its going to be eso plus, the collectors editions if they come on sale, random stuff from the monthly previews, and the shop vendor on the next sale (already have the bank which is really enough).

From playing swtor for years, i already expect a better system for cosmetics so not inclined to accept a downgrade here for the same thing. And there's so much content in eso, im not halfway through the first faction and 2 expansions behind in purchasing even :P

LadyNalcarya

Just don't gamble for radiant mounts, or you might end up like this guy:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/374682/the-tale-of-1000-crates-and-the-missing-plague-husk-horse/p1

ralphylauren

LadyNalcarya wrote: »

Just don't gamble for radiant mounts, or you might end up like this guy:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/374682/the-tale-of-1000-crates-and-the-missing-plague-husk-horse/p1

Or you can get one after 34 like I did. It’s really rng. If the OP has the money I don’t see what’s the problem

winterscrolls229prerb18_ESO

ralphylauren wrote: »

Or you can get one after 34 like I did. It’s really rng. If the OP has the money I don’t see what’s the problem

I find it interesting because that was the first time in decades i've ever payed money for a gambling item.

I think you need to know for a fact that what you're doing is gambling. You need to expect that you're basically throwing your money away. If you focus on what you're could get, its an epic negative experience of course and totally kills the goodwill the game has earned by being the game.. every other post which mentions gamble crates is proof enough.

The point being, knowing its actual gambling can help you make the right decision for yourself on how you want to spend your money. Subscribing for time based access is just as foul /unlikely as gambling crates to me (did my time in wow and do regret it) so that's probably a better option. Same with the vendor assistant really $50 for mobile vendor? Quite an indulgence considering what else you can get on steam for the same money. So there's other unusual rewards in eso without having to worry about dealing with a gambling experience when all you actually want is cosmetics.

dhboy123

This topic is really rather depressing that so much money is being spent on cosmetic mounts.

Eifleber

I absolutely HATE the crates.

I just wanted the gems but there's only avg. I found out it's only a very meagre 4 per crate.
Meaning I needed to buy 10 for the reward I wanted.

The unwaned mounts and costume I got are absolutely NOT what I like at all and it's really, really too bad you can' t sell them.

VERDICT: crown crates: 0/10

LadyNalcarya

ralphylauren wrote: »

LadyNalcarya wrote: »

Just don't gamble for radiant mounts, or you might end up like this guy:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/374682/the-tale-of-1000-crates-and-the-missing-plague-husk-horse/p1

Or you can get one after 34 like I did. It’s really rng. If the OP has the money I don’t see what’s the problem

Well, it's nice when you get them, the problem is that you cannot count on getting them. Unlike regular apex mounts that you can buy with gems.

LartenCrepsley

TropicsDelight wrote: »

But it's perfectly legal for video game companies to do and they've patented all sorts of technology to do it with.

If that could ever be proven there are more than a few lawyers who would happily take on a class action lawsuit against the gaming companies on behalf of the playerbases, and the gaming companies would lose that case if there was such technology removing randomness from in game gambling and purposely giving people either greater, or worse rewards.

From a civil point of view there is no way they would be let off with manipulating the rewards like that if it went to court. BUT you would HAVE to know they are in fact actually running algorithms that do as you say and be able to prove it in a court of law.

From a civil point of view I question the legality, and if this ever went to court and it was known these companies were doing this the laws would change swiftly to add the criminal component.

If I was the CEO of ZOS I would ensure the system ran on pure RNG, anything different and they are just asking for trouble down the road.

it has been proven, star wars battlefront 2 was the first game with this new tech... there was outlash from the community due to pay to win, so they removed it for almost a year or so and added a revised version of it at a later time.... i myself dont know does the new version use the same tech but i do know originally ea planned on using this new tech in future battlefield games (the war ones not the star wars ones) and star wars battlefront 2 was the testing grounds for it...

the fact that this new tech did get some notice from the community , but the main thing was how the lockboxes were so pay to win in a teen/childrens game.. which sparked outlash online and is now the reason why in the us and uk games need to put gambling within the games ratings according to the esrb if it contains lockboxes.... congress debated many diffrent forms of regulating this, from making any game that contains lockboxes have a mature rating, but ultimately they decided to force esrb to clearly state gambling with any game that contains lockboxes...


no clue if eso uses the same tech but as far as im aware only EA games has used it so far and that is with star wars battlefront two.... i know they planned on using it in battlefield 5 but as i dont play the battlefield games i dont know if it was ever implemented after the backlash star wars recieved

LartenCrepsley

LartenCrepsley wrote: »

TropicsDelight wrote: »

But it's perfectly legal for video game companies to do and they've patented all sorts of technology to do it with.

If that could ever be proven there are more than a few lawyers who would happily take on a class action lawsuit against the gaming companies on behalf of the playerbases, and the gaming companies would lose that case if there was such technology removing randomness from in game gambling and purposely giving people either greater, or worse rewards.

From a civil point of view there is no way they would be let off with manipulating the rewards like that if it went to court. BUT you would HAVE to know they are in fact actually running algorithms that do as you say and be able to prove it in a court of law.

From a civil point of view I question the legality, and if this ever went to court and it was known these companies were doing this the laws would change swiftly to add the criminal component.

If I was the CEO of ZOS I would ensure the system ran on pure RNG, anything different and they are just asking for trouble down the road.

it has been proven, star wars battlefront 2 was the first game with this new tech... there was outlash from the community due to pay to win, so they removed it for almost a year or so and added a revised version of it at a later time.... i myself dont know does the new version use the same tech but i do know originally ea planned on using this new tech in future battlefield games (the war ones not the star wars ones) and star wars battlefront 2 was the testing grounds for it...

the fact that this new tech did get some notice from the community , but the main thing was how the lockboxes were so pay to win in a teen/childrens game.. which sparked outlash online and is now the reason why in the us and uk games need to put gambling within the games ratings according to the esrb if it contains lockboxes.... congress debated many diffrent forms of regulating this, from making any game that contains lockboxes have a mature rating, but ultimately they decided to force esrb to clearly state gambling with any game that contains lockboxes...


no clue if eso uses the same tech but as far as im aware only EA games has used it so far and that is with star wars battlefront two.... i know they planned on using it in battlefield 5 but as i dont play the battlefield games i dont know if it was ever implemented after the backlash star wars recieved

cant seem to find the article i read (it was years ago) and so much has happened with lootboxes sinse then legal wise....

but pretty much what the lockboxes new tech would do was adapt to someones spending habbits, and if they were not spending enough they would toss them a really cool item thats more rare or more difficult to obtain. if they were already spending a ton they would toss in more mediocre items with sprinkles of rare items over time but less common ... and if they never spent at all they would also toss them a bone in many cases.

from the article i read way back when the main thing that made people angry is that the rewards were no longer percent based like lootboxes of the past and tech the tech could be used to manipulatively make people spend more based on there habbits