Economic Update: Toss the Blue Master Writs

beadabow

After almost a month since the major update to jewelry crafting master writs, the expected scarcity of iridium plate and resulting spike in prices of both the grains and plating have made completion of the newly introduced "Superior Master Writs" not worth doing. I expect the prices for iridium grains and plating will continue to climb until the market stabilizes to a somewhat fixed price range. If you are a daily master crafter like me, I recommend hoarding your iridium plating materials for the new Epic and/or Legendary Master Jewelry Writs-- as they seem to still fall within the realm of worth doing. Even though you may feel compelled to complete the Superior writs for the healthy 25+ vouchers they offer, the opportunity cost of selling the materials required to complete the writ and selling the writ itself will exceed the purchasing power of the vouchers you receive. In other words, you could take the money you make from selling the iridum plating (at roughly 6-8k per item) the trait item, the platinum ounces and the writ itself and buy whatever you were planning on using the vouchers for from most guild traders. Happy crafting and may the RNG be with your drops!

tmbrinks

beadabow wrote: »

After almost a month since the major update to jewelry crafting master writs, the expected scarcity of iridium plate and resulting spike in prices of both the grains and plating have made completion of the newly introduced "Superior Master Writs" not worth doing. I expect the prices for iridium grains and plating will continue to climb until the market stabilizes to a somewhat fixed price range. If you are a daily master crafter like me, I recommend hoarding your iridium plating materials for the new Epic and/or Legendary Master Jewelry Writs-- as they seem to still fall within the realm of worth doing. Even though you may feel compelled to complete the Superior writs for the healthy 25+ vouchers they offer, the opportunity cost of selling the materials required to complete the writ and selling the writ itself will exceed the purchasing power of the vouchers you receive. In other words, you could take the money you make from selling the iridum plating (at roughly 6-8k per item) the trait item, the platinum ounces and the writ itself and buy whatever you were planning on using the vouchers for from most guild traders. Happy crafting and may the RNG be with your drops!

At 6k they would still most likely be "worth" doing. At the current MM I have of around 4.8k per plating that only gives a per-voucher cost in the 350-400g range. Bumping that to 6k per iridium plating would only raise the price to the upper 400g to the low 500g per voucher, cheaper than what most items sell from the voucher vendor on a per-voucher basis (I can easily sell for 650g/voucher + on PC/NA)

That's not to say I don't agree with your statement. That iridium is a crunch point and that the prices will go up. I just believe they have to go fully to the upper range of your statement (8k per plating) to make them not worth doing.

The biggest issue seems to be that it's very easy to get to the highest drop chance on jewelery writs on a lot of alt characters, since it's just research based. Whereas for BS/WW/Cloth, very few people are going to learn all the motifs on all their alt characters.

beadabow

I feel like I could have written this better, but decided I might write a more in-depth post later on. True, by the numbers 6k per plate is still within the range of worth doing, but another factor I failed to mention is the amount of time spent either farming mats (doing dolmens to get blue jewelry would probably be one of the quickest ways to increase your supply), or shopping the guild stores for iridium plating. If you factor in the value of your time farming iridium, then the opportunity cost might exceed the value of the writ. It depends on what you want to accomplish when you play the game. Still, the same could be said for a lot of activities in the game.

And I have considered saving the superior master writs for future completion, but value my storage slots for both being empty and filled with other items. If the trends continue over the next few months, I think we will see a drop in the prices of Gold and Purple mats (supply is exceeding demand) and a rise in the price of blue mats for jewelry crafters (demand exceeds supply levels). I predict iridium will hold above the 10k gold per item level for both buyers and sellers in the trade guilds, once prices stabilize. Once that happens, the Superior Jewelry Writs won't be worth completing.

Dusk_Coven

Cost per writ on blues is around 300-ish per voucher on PC(NA). You can farm blue grains with dolmens, so the plating can be "free" and you don't need much of it.
Cost per writ on purples and gold not as high as before, but still in the 600+ range.

It seems it's still better to just junk the purple and gold writs, and sell the mats to people who want to do them or upgrade their jewelry for use.

IMO ZOS has made Jewelry too good. No motif/recipe to find, only 2 lines of research. And each blue master writ can return much more in vouchers than the other types of crafts.

tmbrinks

beadabow wrote: »

I feel like I could have written this better, but decided I might write a more in-depth post later on. True, by the numbers 6k per plate is still within the range of worth doing, but another factor I failed to mention is the amount of time spent either farming mats (doing dolmens to get blue jewelry would probably be one of the quickest ways to increase your supply), or shopping the guild stores for iridium plating. If you factor in the value of your time farming iridium, then the opportunity cost might exceed the value of the writ. It depends on what you want to accomplish when you play the game. Still, the same could be said for a lot of activities in the game.

And I have considered saving the superior master writs for future completion, but value my storage slots for both being empty and filled with other items. If the trends continue over the next few months, I think we will see a drop in the prices of Gold and Purple mats (supply is exceeding demand) and a rise in the price of blue mats for jewelry crafters (demand exceeds supply levels). I predict iridium will hold above the 10k gold per item level for both buyers and sellers in the trade guilds, once prices stabilize. Once that happens, the Superior Jewelry Writs won't be worth completing.

The time value is already factored in with the MM cost of the platings. The more expensive they become, the more willing people will be willing to spend time in-game to farm them. If they are cheaper, people will just buy them, because they won't be worth their time to farm. So... prices will slowly go up as the supply dwindles because there was not much use for them previously... as the price goes up, some players will decide to do activities that increase the number of iridium platings in the game (either farming dolmens, harvesting resources, or doing jewelry daily writs) and then increase the supply of iridium platings, with the cost adjusting to compensate.

Time spent is already factored into this cost however.

Taleof2Cities

Do you not do regular jewelry writs, @beadabow?

Because ZOS increased plating drops on writs ... one of the reasons I don’t think the sky is falling as much as you do.

Feric51

Another good way to farm jewelry is through treasure maps. I only have anecdotal personal results, but earlier this year I ran around 1,000 treasure maps and would estimate around a 33-50% return on some form of jewelry from the chests. Obviously not all of them were set pieces, but that doesn't matter if you're just deconstructing them for mats.

Worth noting, if you're specifically targeting jewelry for deconstruction I did notice a better return on maps from the starting areas (Khenarthi's Roost, Bal Foyen, etc) because there's only one named set (Trainee) rather than three sets that further dilute the RNG pool with armor/weapons.

I ended up with 762 malachite shards at the end of that marathon, too.

I just spent a little time each day hitting traders for a specific zone's maps. (IE only buying Bal Foyen Treasure Map I & II) I would buy every single one under my personal price cap - you might justify spending more/less than I - just let them stack up in your mail inbox and you can focus on one map until you've exhausted your supply then move on to the next. This, to me, beats farming dolmens, but I'll admit you're just trading one monotonous task for another.

Starlock

I won't be tossing them.

The reason being jewelry crafting is still a massive failure and this is the only thing that makes it have any value for me whatsoever. The pathetically small number of platings I've accumulated since this system released have just sat there doing nothing with the exception of the one time I actually had enough platings to upgrade something to purple and the one time I actually had enough platings to do a legendary and unlock that dye. Now I actually have a reason to not ignore all jewelry crafting nodes in the world. Barely, but there's actually reason now. The system as a whole still sucks, though.

tmbrinks

Starlock wrote: »

I won't be tossing them.

The reason being jewelry crafting is still a massive failure and this is the only thing that makes it have any value for me whatsoever. The pathetically small number of platings I've accumulated since this system released have just sat there doing nothing with the exception of the one time I actually had enough platings to upgrade something to purple and the one time I actually had enough platings to do a legendary and unlock that dye. Now I actually have a reason to not ignore all jewelry crafting nodes in the world. Barely, but there's actually reason now. The system as a whole still sucks, though.

I honestly disagree. They wanted jewelry to be "special" so they did a 10:1 grains system. They realized this was too much, so they reduced the platings needed so it's effectively a 5:1 ratio. There were still not enough, so now they make top level writs guarantee a grain drop (with most being Iridium and above) with sometimes getting double grains, and even a full plating. Drop rate from refining is the same as the other crafts.

Add that to the fact that you only have 3 jewelry slots, but could have up to 11 slots of the other crafts, and it's actually a lot closer to even than you think.

Do jewelry writs on more than 1 character (I know you're on console, but with the multicraft changes, there's only 2 things you can make for jewelry writs... a ring... or a neck..., so it's easy even without addons) to do writs on multiple characters. You'll see lots of grains and platings start to accumulate.

beadabow

Taleof2Cities wrote: »

Do you not do regular jewelry writs, @beadabow?

Because ZOS increased plating drops on writs ... one of the reasons I don’t think the sky is falling as much as you do.

Oh, I don't think the sky is falling at all! I am very pleased with the recent changes to jewelry crafting, and I have done close to 700 jewelry writs since the changes (25 toons almost every day since the change on both NA pc and EU pc servers), so I think I am qualified to make a few logical assumptions in the supply versus demand department. This post is directed more at the players who do a LOT of writs every day ~ though it can still apply to players that may do only a few writs per day.

I also shop the guild traders frequently enough to track the trends in prices. I feel the master jewelry writs aren't worth doing for me, because there simply isn't enough of a supply of the quantity of iridium I need to complete them all (I have averaged about 4-6 superior master writs per day since the change). Still, some good and valid points are being made here by you and other players.

I think, in time, we will all see how things turn out. Either way, it is a win for everyone however, as I will still be buying iridium plating, even as the price increases to supplement my personal demand for the material. I will also be selling my surplus writs/materials depending on which ones I can and cannot complete. So, on the contrary, the sky is not falling, things are looking up! It's just a matter of how you interpret them. For now, I am still tossing the superior writs out, because 1. I am low on iridium plating and 2. Because the only plating I can find in guild stores after 30 minutes of shopping is priced too high to make doing the writs worthwhile. And 3. I don't want to store them.

tmbrinks

beadabow wrote: »

Taleof2Cities wrote: »

Do you not do regular jewelry writs, @beadabow?

Because ZOS increased plating drops on writs ... one of the reasons I don’t think the sky is falling as much as you do.

Oh, I don't think the sky is falling at all! I am very pleased with the recent changes to jewelry crafting, and I have done close to 700 jewelry writs since the changes (25 toons almost every day since the change on both NA pc and EU pc servers), so I think I am qualified to make a few logical assumptions in the supply versus demand department. This post is directed more at the players who do a LOT of writs every day ~ though it can still apply to players that may do only a few writs per day.

I also shop the guild traders frequently enough to track the trends in prices. I feel the master jewelry writs aren't worth doing for me, because there simply isn't enough of a supply of the quantity of iridium I need to complete them all (I have averaged about 4-6 superior master writs per day since the change). Still, some good and valid points are being made here by you and other players.

I think, in time, we will all see how things turn out. Either way, it is a win for everyone however, as I will still be buying iridium plating, even as the price increases to supplement my personal demand for the material. I will also be selling my surplus writs/materials depending on which ones I can and cannot complete. So, on the contrary, the sky is not falling, things are looking up! It's just a matter of how you interpret them. For now, I am still tossing the superior writs out, because 1. I am low on iridium plating and 2. Because the only plating I can find in guild stores after 30 minutes of shopping is priced too high to make doing the writs worthwhile. And 3. I don't want to store them.

I certainly cannot keep up with the superior writs that I get (Max level jewelry on 25 a day, full writs on 36, still leveling the last few up) and it is a challenge now to find iridium platings for sale at MM price, so prices are rising. It just depends on how high they go!

beadabow

Wow! @tmbrinks ! That's awesome! So you understand the amount of materials we craftaholics go through every day! lol!

tmbrinks

beadabow wrote: »

Wow! @tmbrinks ! That's awesome! So you understand the amount of materials we craftaholics go through every day! lol!

Yup! I do. I've even got spreadsheets They've been shared here in places... lol

bmnoble

Been selling the blue master writs just fine and higher than the TTC average for PC/NA too, so someone out there is doing them.

The Tri stat ones though I still sell cheap.

redlink1979

@beadabow It's rather easy to obtain blue grains/platings, the rate just depends on your efforts.

Jewelry Master writs are worth doing much more now than before. Got 10 jewelry master writs so far: 9 blue n 1 purple (I'm running daily writs with 8 chars, fiy)
Blues are between 28-30 vouchers, cheap/easy to obtain traits. Purple is 180 vouchers, easy/cheap to obtain trait.

tmbrinks

redlink1979 wrote: »

@beadabow It's rather easy to obtain blue grains/platings, the rate just depends on your efforts.

Jewelry Master writs are worth doing much more now than before. Got 10 jewelry master writs so far: 9 blue n 1 purple (I'm running daily writs with 8 chars, fiy)
Blues are between 28-30 vouchers, cheap/easy to obtain traits. Purple is 180 vouchers, easy/cheap to obtain trait.

Yes, it is easy to obtain grains/platings now. However, unlike WW/BS/Cloth, which return more than enough improvement materials from the daily writs combined with the hirelings to complete the master writs you can receive. Simply doing jewelry writs gives you more master writs than you can complete from just those sources. (I know Jewelry doesn't have a hireling, but the daily writs drop terne/iridium/zircon grains, which are not dropped.

Like @beadabow said they're getting 4-6 superior jewelry master writs a day, I'm getting similar amounts on my 25 characters that do maximum level jewelry writs. I'm not receiving anywhere close to 8-12 iridium PLATINGS per day to be able to complete those. That is why there is a supply crunch, and the prices are rising.

Now, as the price goes up, some tasks to get iridium grains/platings will become more profitable, thus people will start doing them (farming dolmens, chest runs for jewelry, farming nodes to refine), and eventually, the prices will reach a stabilizing point.

redlink1979

@tmbrinks I also agree with your POV. And I started preparing for this new master writs (hoarding grains/platings) since week 1 of the latest PTS cycle.

beadabow

I went on a buying spree this morning and found a ready supply of cheap superior jewelry in most every guild store. I experimented with 50 pieces and netted over 80% in return grains upon deconstruction (4 plates total). I also looked for iridium plating to buy out right, only found two within my price range. So with six plates, I can do 3 master writs. Still below the number of writs I seem to be getting daily. Hopefully the supply of cheap blue jewelry will help players compensate for the rising prices.

redlink1979

@beadabow I don't with how many chars you do daily writs with but consider creating more chars to improve the odds of master writs dropping. With 8 chars here I've been getting at least 1 jewelry master writ per day since the U23 release.

beadabow

Hey @redlink1979 . If you read up a few postings, I mention that I do 25 characters almost daily when it comes to crafting writs. I have averaged about 4-6 master jewelry writs dropping for me each day! (Some days more, some days less) I stockpiled roughly 60 iridium plates after reading about the update to jewelry crafting while U23 was still in test mode. Burned through those pretty fast!

MattT1988

I think they’re definitely worth doing seeing as it’s *** easy to get heaps of blue Jewellery for decon for the tempers.

Alinhbo_Tyaka

For those of us that only craft on one, two or a few toons the blues are a big improvement. Iridium quantities are more than adequate to obtain from the available sources and cover the number of master writs we receive. If jewelry crafting is supposed to be special I don't see how ZOS could balance it for craftaholics and still have it remain special. While I still think they need to give jewelry crafting their own gathering nodes I believe the balance is much better for the everyday player that crafts as a hobby or for the perks.

beadabow

Another factor I have noticed since reevaluating the iridium problem is the distribution of wealth among my total daily crafting operation where profit/loss is concerned. I am going to use the perfect roe prices and their associated master writs as an example.

If I receive a master writ for provisioning which requires two perfect roe to complete for a reward of 40 vouchers, the flat opportunity cost makes the vouchers not worth doing from a "profitability" perspective. This is because perfect roe are usually priced at around 12k per item. Add in the cost of other materials and they are slightly above the 500 gold per voucher price range I like to try to maintain.

I still complete them however, because when I evaluate the entire daily crafting operation's profits versus loss, I make enough profit from other materials I gain at no cost and resell as surplus to help offset or absorb the cost of completing a marginal voucher master writ. The same holds true for superior jewelry master writs. I have started completing them again, because I can absorb the loss of voucher purchasing power from the profits of my other crafting writs and master writ vouchers, yet still maintain a satisfactory daily level of gains overall.

I know that might sound a little confusing, so to summarize, I can state: Even if a master writ might exceed the opportunity cost of the vouchers it provides for completion, look at your entire operation and decide if other activities will cover the loss of completing the master writ. What's a few thousand gold if you are making 30-40k gold per day? Plus it helps boost the Tamrielic economy to buy materials from other players. An overall win-win situation in my book. You make money, spend money ~ other players make money and spend money...it's good for the economy which makes the game all the more enjoyable.

tsaescishoeshiner

beadabow wrote: »

What's a few thousand gold if you are making 30-40k gold per day?

10% less gold per day is what that is

FlopsyPrince

tmbrinks wrote: »

doing jewelry daily writs

Will people really do just the JC writs for this? I can see doing the set, but the logout/login time makes doing that for just 1 write more than a bit of a waste of time. Additional writs are quite quick compared to the logout/login time.

tmbrinks

FlopsyPrince wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

doing jewelry daily writs

Will people really do just the JC writs for this? I can see doing the set, but the logout/login time makes doing that for just 1 write more than a bit of a waste of time. Additional writs are quite quick compared to the logout/login time.

Jewelry can be really easy to keep enough in your inventory... since there's only 2 things to make, especially with the multicraft now. Make 10 rings and 10 necks and you have writs done for a week or so.

Feric51

tmbrinks wrote: »

FlopsyPrince wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

doing jewelry daily writs

Will people really do just the JC writs for this? I can see doing the set, but the logout/login time makes doing that for just 1 write more than a bit of a waste of time. Additional writs are quite quick compared to the logout/login time.

Jewelry can be really easy to keep enough in your inventory... since there's only 2 things to make, especially with the multicraft now. Make 10 rings and 10 necks and you have writs done for a week or so.

Pro Tip: A three-day cycle of jewelry writs requires 4 rings and 3 necklaces (3 rings, 1 ring/1 neck, 2 necklaces) so I just craft in multiples of those numbers.

IE 12 rings/9 necklaces will get you exactly 9 days worth of writs, 16/12 = 12 days, etc. assuming you don't miss a day somewhere in between.

tmbrinks

Feric51 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

FlopsyPrince wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

doing jewelry daily writs

Will people really do just the JC writs for this? I can see doing the set, but the logout/login time makes doing that for just 1 write more than a bit of a waste of time. Additional writs are quite quick compared to the logout/login time.

Jewelry can be really easy to keep enough in your inventory... since there's only 2 things to make, especially with the multicraft now. Make 10 rings and 10 necks and you have writs done for a week or so.

Pro Tip: A three-day cycle of jewelry writs requires 4 rings and 3 necklaces (3 rings, 1 ring/1 neck, 2 necklaces) so I just craft in multiples of those numbers.

IE 12 rings/9 necklaces will get you exactly 9 days worth of writs, 16/12 = 12 days, etc. assuming you don't miss a day somewhere in between.

Thanks Feric! I didn't remember the exact numbers (I'll admit, we are spoiled on PC with the add-ons, so I don't pre-make any of the BS/WW/Cloth/Jewelry writs) I do have them written down to make sure they're worth doing.

phwaap

Of the six blue writs I have, lowest per voucher now is 698g. Already destroying.

beadabow

phwaap wrote: »

Of the six blue writs I have, lowest per voucher now is 698g. Already destroying.

Here's to you getting some of the purple and gold master jewelry writs. They may still be worth doing!

redlink1979

Got my 1st purple master writ today. 180 vouchers.