The NEW undaunted chests

Darkmage1337

Dagoth_Rac wrote: »

These new coffers feel even worse than the old chests. I don't necessarily mean that the odds feel worse. Too small of a sample set right now. It probably is 50/50 after you open 10,000 of them. But repeatedly not getting the shoulder you want when it is an 8.33% chance does not feel as bad as repeatedly not getting the shoulder you want when it is a 50% chance.

Also, a 1 in 12 chance with a cost of 1 key means an average of 12 keys to get what you want. A 1 in 2 chance with a cost of 5 keys means an average of 10 keys to get what you want. The odds are not really improved all that much.

Congrats to ZOS for creating an "improvement" that only slightly improves odds while making RNG feel even more cruel and capricious.

It's not even a 50% chance, more like a 16% chance because you can't change the shoulder's weight.
5 keys gives a chance for 2 different shoulders, but each shoulder has 3 weights. The trait doesn't matter because of transmutation.

For example, I received 4 Balorgh Shoulders, they are all in Heavy weight, even though I wanted a Medium and/or even a Light version...

RNG? Or conspiracy?

phileunderx2

Before patch I dumped 50 keys into the old chest looking for a med Zaan. Out of those 50 I got 3 . 2 light 1 heavy. Put 15 into the new chest and got the medium I wanted will have to transmute

mairwen85

Darkmage1337 wrote: »

Dagoth_Rac wrote: »

These new coffers feel even worse than the old chests. I don't necessarily mean that the odds feel worse. Too small of a sample set right now. It probably is 50/50 after you open 10,000 of them. But repeatedly not getting the shoulder you want when it is an 8.33% chance does not feel as bad as repeatedly not getting the shoulder you want when it is a 50% chance.

Also, a 1 in 12 chance with a cost of 1 key means an average of 12 keys to get what you want. A 1 in 2 chance with a cost of 5 keys means an average of 10 keys to get what you want. The odds are not really improved all that much.

Congrats to ZOS for creating an "improvement" that only slightly improves odds while making RNG feel even more cruel and capricious.

It's not even a 50% chance, more like a 16% chance because you can't change the shoulder's weight.
5 keys gives a chance for 2 different shoulders, but each shoulder has 3 weights. The trait doesn't matter because of transmutation.

For example, I received 4 Balorgh Shoulders, they are all in Heavy weight, even though I wanted a Medium and/or even a Light version...

RNG? Or conspiracy?

Technically the trait only doesn't matter for the piece you want, in the weight you want. All traits and weights for the other piece, and weights for the piece you want still pollute the pool.

2*9 + 3*9 + 1 = 46; you have 1:46 chance or 45/1 against.

~2%

majulook

For 5 keys --- You should get the exact one you want in Blue
10 keys for Purple

This would keep the run to get keys and eliminate the RNG side.

Darkmage1337

majulook wrote: »

For 5 keys --- You should get the exact one you want in Blue
10 keys for Purple

This would keep the run to get keys and eliminate the RNG side.

Nah, the difference between Blue and Purple quality is so marginal and it is so easy to go from Blue to Purple. Lol.
No one would buy the purple one for 10 keys when they can just use 4 purple mats to upgrade the blue one for free, or for like 500 gold.

majulook

Darkmage1337 wrote: »

majulook wrote: »

For 5 keys --- You should get the exact one you want in Blue
10 keys for Purple

This would keep the run to get keys and eliminate the RNG side.

Nah, the difference between Blue and Purple quality is so marginal and it is so easy to go from Blue to Purple. Lol.
No one would buy the purple one for 10 keys when they can just use 4 purple mats to upgrade the blue one for free, or for like 500 gold.

Quiet maybe ZOS wont notice that.

robpr

You should fool that orc lady you need Chudan instead. Never let them know you need otherwise, they smell fear.

Nordic__Knights

robpr wrote: »

You should fool that orc lady you need Chudan instead. Never let them know you need otherwise, they smell fear.

I always use keys from a different toon then the toon I'm trying to get my shoulders for to begin with it does seem to play out a lot better

Nordic__Knights

Darkmage1337 wrote: »

majulook wrote: »

For 5 keys --- You should get the exact one you want in Blue
10 keys for Purple

This would keep the run to get keys and eliminate the RNG side.

Nah, the difference between Blue and Purple quality is so marginal and it is so easy to go from Blue to Purple. Lol.
No one would buy the purple one for 10 keys when they can just use 4 purple mats to upgrade the blue one for free, or for like 500 gold.

Yeah and it post like this the reason why they won't do it I mean we could just say that we're going to up the prices of purple now then how about that one
And being as you get one key for normal blue items and you get two keys for doing vet purple item drops doing a 5 keys for blue and 10 keys for purple is right on par with this setup

Luigi_Vampa

Nordic__Knights wrote: »

robpr wrote: »

You should fool that orc lady you need Chudan instead. Never let them know you need otherwise, they smell fear.

I always use keys from a different toon then the toon I'm trying to get my shoulders for to begin with it does seem to play out a lot better

It's like running vMA on a Stam character to trick them into giving you an inferno staff. I love all the conspiracy theories that pop up in this game.

Hazurko_RaShan

ghastley wrote: »

I assume you wanted Velidreth, and stopped when you got it. Otherwise, why spend all those keys on the same chest?

And all the players who got what they wanted the first time, aren't going to tell us here.

I got the chokethorn when i wanted it, the first try in the material i wanted

Canned_Apples

Luigi_Vampa wrote: »

It's like running vMA on a Stam character to trick them into giving you an inferno staff. I love all the conspiracy theories that pop up in this game.

I have three vMA inferno staves, but what I want is an ice staff....

Hazurko_RaShan wrote: »

I got the chokethorn when i wanted it, the first try in the material i wanted

Chokethorn has always had a high drop rate- it's considered a "low value" set, so they increased the odds of getting that one over the others.

ZonasArch

Darkmage1337 wrote: »

Dagoth_Rac wrote: »

These new coffers feel even worse than the old chests. I don't necessarily mean that the odds feel worse. Too small of a sample set right now. It probably is 50/50 after you open 10,000 of them. But repeatedly not getting the shoulder you want when it is an 8.33% chance does not feel as bad as repeatedly not getting the shoulder you want when it is a 50% chance.

Also, a 1 in 12 chance with a cost of 1 key means an average of 12 keys to get what you want. A 1 in 2 chance with a cost of 5 keys means an average of 10 keys to get what you want. The odds are not really improved all that much.

Congrats to ZOS for creating an "improvement" that only slightly improves odds while making RNG feel even more cruel and capricious.

It's not even a 50% chance, more like a 16% chance because you can't change the shoulder's weight.
5 keys gives a chance for 2 different shoulders, but each shoulder has 3 weights. The trait doesn't matter because of transmutation.

For example, I received 4 Balorgh Shoulders, they are all in Heavy weight, even though I wanted a Medium and/or even a Light version...

RNG? Or conspiracy?

Then the other ones aren't 8.3% either. Don't be biased. If you want the coffers to be 16%, it's fine, and I agree with you, but then the chests were 3% or so to give you what you wanted, and for the price of 5keys, you get odds slightly better than 5x you had before. Good deal if you ask me.

kargen27

Berserkerkitten wrote: »

You'd think they'd simply introduce some sort of token system, which allows players to save up and directly pick what they want, but I guess that'd be too convenient and user-friendly. Let's gamble instead.

I mean, why even have any RNG in there at all? To what end? So the player has to "earn it"? For pride and accomplishment? Farming these same dungeons over and over again isn't even challenging, it's just tedious. It's not like there was some sense of achievement attached to it, just let people get the stuff they want.

MMO's survive by providing new content and by having old content repeated. RNG is necessary for the long term health of the game.

ToastyTheTyrant

I have a similar story...

I was farming Mighty Chudan Epaulets for legit weeks, perhaps over a month, and I probably spent like 30 to 40 keys before the update.

Then the update was coming out soon so I saved up 15 keys and got the Mighty Chudan Epaulets on the 3rd try, using up the very last of my keys.

I swear I had just as many Velidreth's as you have Chudans 😆

Let us rejoice and drink mead, for the RNG Gods finally decided to smile upon us, friend!

eso_lytw8

Canned_Apples wrote: »

I have three vMA inferno staves, but what I want is an ice staff....

I got 3 ice staffs in a row, odds of that happening are 1 in 1728, happened again with shields, 3 in a row. I frequently get 2 in a row which is 1 in 144. Funny thing is I have only run it 137 times. Yet repeatedly have drops that defy the bounds of possible logic if the drops were independent and equally weighted for all players.

I don't think ZOS will look into this because so many people just assume the random generation system is producing intended probabilities and that the patterns are just part of it, regardless of how unlikely the patterns are.

Canned_Apples

yup... yet another chuudan. I think the drop rate for velidreth is 0.01%
zos really stacked the odds against decent sets.

eso_lytw8

Canned_Apples wrote: »

yup... yet another chuudan. I think the drop rate for velidreth is 0.01%
zos really stacked the odds against decent sets.

If you have another character try using keys on the other character and see if that helps. If the RNG is working right it can't hurt. Just a shot.