Wrathstone Racial Changes, Flawed Mathematics, Misinformation, and Suggestions

Koronach

alexj4596b14_ESO wrote: »

HatchetHaro wrote: »

Jhalin wrote: »

HatchetHaro wrote: »

therift wrote: »

This.

As soon as I see a test in which a table of parses are averaged for comparison, I know the test conclusions are flawed. Averaging is incorrect since it will be skewed by uncontrolled variables in the parses and by any datum that that varies significantly from the mean.

Do not average your data. Find the mean, calculate standard deviation, and only then are you on the path to a reliable conclusion.

All these 'tests' using averaged data and relying on "I'm really consistent with rotations" are Dewey Defeats Truman results. In short, useless for purposes of analysis.

However, the charts of unreliable results are pretty.

Actually, if the data is consistent enough, the mean/average is actually often an accurate representation of the results. I mean (ha ha), I represent my results this way as well, but I also prioritize consistency and transparency of data.

I think your issue with the "averages" isn't about the averages being flawed, but rather the skewing of results that is the average of flawed data.

Otherwise, I think I understand your point and would agree with you.

alexj4596b14_ESO wrote: »

@HatchetHaro

I hope I did this right..I don't normally tag people. I have only just made a Warden Lizard Specifically for PvP. I would like to ask a question. What would the balance difference if they were given poison resistant and and immunity instead of disease.

also why make the DPS passive change Procy?

Sorry it took me a while to respond.

Disease resistance means that you don't get the Diseased status effect that applies a Major Defile (30% less healing received) on you.
Poison resistance means you don't get the Poisoned status effect which is just damage-over-time.

In general, the Disease resistance is better for PvP because it completely negates that healing debuff. People generally like to run the Disease glyph in PvP just to apply that status effect, and it makes getting healed back up so much harder for the target, so gaining immunity to that is quite a big deal.

I believe that Poison resistance is better for PvE. Now, you don't have to care about any Poison damage in most situations in PvE since your healers should take care of you no problem. The only reason why I think it is a tiny bit useful for PvE is that there is a long-running bug in Sanctum Ophidia where you have a tiny chance of getting one-shot while having the troll poison on you; the Poison resistance negates that entirely. Take this with a grain of salt, though; this is just pure speculation based on the fact that I've never died to that bug on my Argonian.

So yes, the balance would be different. The Diseased status effect is quite a big thing in PvP.

Quick correction, Disease damage can only apply *Minor Defile, not Major.

Major Defile can only be applied as a direct effect of abilities, sets, and poisons

I only went by the data on Alcast's site, where it says Major Defile: https://alcasthq.com/eso-status-effects/

Just asked a few other people and they said Major as well.

Thanks for the heads up, though; I'll test it some time later and correct it if it turns out to be Minor.

alexj4596b14_ESO wrote: »

HatchetHaro wrote: »

therift wrote: »

This.

As soon as I see a test in which a table of parses are averaged for comparison, I know the test conclusions are flawed. Averaging is incorrect since it will be skewed by uncontrolled variables in the parses and by any datum that that varies significantly from the mean.

Do not average your data. Find the mean, calculate standard deviation, and only then are you on the path to a reliable conclusion.

All these 'tests' using averaged data and relying on "I'm really consistent with rotations" are Dewey Defeats Truman results. In short, useless for purposes of analysis.

However, the charts of unreliable results are pretty.

Actually, if the data is consistent enough, the mean/average is actually often an accurate representation of the results. I mean (ha ha), I represent my results this way as well, but I also prioritize consistency and transparency of data.

I think your issue with the "averages" isn't about the averages being flawed, but rather the skewing of results that is the average of flawed data.

Otherwise, I think I understand your point and would agree with you.

alexj4596b14_ESO wrote: »

@HatchetHaro

I hope I did this right..I don't normally tag people. I have only just made a Warden Lizard Specifically for PvP. I would like to ask a question. What would the balance difference if they were given poison resistant and and immunity instead of disease.

also why make the DPS passive change Procy?

Sorry it took me a while to respond.

Disease resistance means that you don't get the Diseased status effect that applies a Major Defile (30% less healing received) on you.
Poison resistance means you don't get the Poisoned status effect which is just damage-over-time.

In general, the Disease resistance is better for PvP because it completely negates that healing debuff. People generally like to run the Disease glyph in PvP just to apply that status effect, and it makes getting healed back up so much harder for the target, so gaining immunity to that is quite a big deal.

I believe that Poison resistance is better for PvE. Now, you don't have to care about any Poison damage in most situations in PvE since your healers should take care of you no problem. The only reason why I think it is a tiny bit useful for PvE is that there is a long-running bug in Sanctum Ophidia where you have a tiny chance of getting one-shot while having the troll poison on you; the Poison resistance negates that entirely. Take this with a grain of salt, though; this is just pure speculation based on the fact that I've never died to that bug on my Argonian.

So yes, the balance would be different. The Diseased status effect is quite a big thing in PvP.

Thank you sir, so Argos are still we even more now a prime PvP class.

Naw. Argonians already have both immunities on Live, so if anything, they're still nerfed in terms of PvP.

I guess I'm finally understanding why people are so up in arms about Argos. Hmm poison resist glyf?

I'm more up in arms about the poison because it's all over the actual in game lore from quest NPC's. Someone even posted a screen shot of a quest NPC stating our poison resistance. Let's see we have the Bleakrock spider quest, Eastmarch Daril quest, Green-Venom-Tongue Shadowscale stating he got his name because he drank so much poison, his tongue is permanently stained green, Jee-Lar mentioning it in that poison sniffer lizard quest, and prob others I'm forgetting.

FrancisCrawford

I don't think hair-splitting about different kinds of averages will contribute much to any practical conclusions. Do 90 and 110 average to 100? (Usually they do.) Or do 90.9 and 110? (Sometimes averaging reciprocals is more relevant.)

In particular, if your goal is to get the highest peak score in a limited number of tests, higher variance might be better than lower. On the other hand, in a group of 12 people, most of whom are pure DDs, is the variance in group damage large enough to matter much?

And what fraction of the player base cares about peak trial scores anyway?

Etc., etc., etc.

therift

T3hasiangod wrote: »

therift wrote: »

"They brought results to the table but the tests they used that brought those results are flawed and in no way represent the real differences in DPS across races. They have failed to factor in human error, the variance from critical chance, and even the variance from Minor Vulnerability which they are even unaware of, and they have used a testing methodology that absolutely does not emulate the end-game raiding scene. Their numbers vary up to 6k between parses and the fluctuating data alone makes their results unreliable."

This.

As soon as I see a test in which a table of parses are averaged for comparison, I know the test conclusions are flawed. Averaging is incorrect since it will be skewed by uncontrolled variables in the parses and by any datum that that varies significantly from the mean.

Do not average your data. Find the mean, calculate standard deviation, and only then are you on the path to a reliable conclusion.

All these 'tests' using averaged data and relying on "I'm really consistent with rotations" are Dewey Defeats Truman results. In short, useless for purposes of analysis.

However, the charts of unreliable results are pretty.

You do not understand statistics if you think the mean is not an average...

Averages are taken as the mean in most statistical applications. The median is also occasionally used, though more for checking certain statistical assumptions, rather than used as an average.

Ah. You got me. I used the wrong term. I rewrote the post several times to simplify and edited poorly.

Left4Daud

The disease resist and major defile immunity from disease proc is really good on argonian vamplars in PvP

HatchetHaro

FrancisCrawford wrote: »

In particular, if your goal is to get the highest peak score in a limited number of tests, higher variance might be better than lower. On the other hand, in a group of 12 people, most of whom are pure DDs, is the variance in group damage large enough to matter much?

At this point, why not just make everyone run full raw damage with 1% crit chance? There's still a chance for all the damage from everyone to crit, and therefore everyone deals a ton of damage, and the team gets the highest score ever.

The issue with thinking this way is that when it comes to trials where there are 8 people doing damage at the same time in prolonged fights, the very chance of everyone getting those lucky crits for "higher variance" and therefore raising the damage above the calculated average is so miniscule it's not even worth considering.

Besides, not everyone has the time to just do the same trial over and over again just for that tiny, tiny chance of luckier crits; considering that most core teams only raid 2-3 times per week of 2-3 hours per session, they won't be able to get many runs in anyway. At this point, it is definitely more feasible to just go for stats that give more consistently-high numbers.

FrancisCrawford wrote: »

And what fraction of the player base cares about peak trial scores anyway?

The same fraction of the player base that the racial passive changes will affect the most.

If you don't care about it, then you don't have to care about it, but it doesn't mean we can't care about it either. There is no point in you arguing against the people that the changes affect the most when the changes don't affect you anyway.

LightMaster7

I'm very disappointed with the direction of the racial passives. It truly makes my Redguard MagSorcerer worthless as a class.

I guess once the changes drops, it is time to move on. I won't be changing my "race" ***.

LightMaster7

LightMaster7 wrote: »

I'm very disappointed with the direction of the racial passives. It truly makes my Redguard MagSorcerer worthless as a class.

I guess once the changes drops, it is time to move on. I won't be changing my "race" ***.

Just to rant a little more. I finally did a membership to ESO about a week ago. But just now cancelled it because of what's coming down the line with this BS change.

I don't think I will be the only one.

Anywho ...

Seraphayel

LightMaster7 wrote: »

I'm very disappointed with the direction of the racial passives. It truly makes my Redguard MagSorcerer worthless as a class.

I guess once the changes drops, it is time to move on. I won't be changing my "race" ***.

How can this even be a complaint when your Redguard MagSorc is definitely better after the changes than before?

Seraphayel

HatchetHaro wrote: »

If you don't care about it, then you don't have to care about it, but it doesn't mean we can't care about it either. There is no point in you arguing against the people that the changes affect the most when the changes don't affect you anyway.

The point was and still is that even for those affected the changes are so minimal that all of these in-depth analyzing and calculating seems much more of an overreaction blown out of proportion than reasonable talk. You're right that there's no point in arguing when you barely get affected by them but aren't you just incredibly overestimating how much those changes will affect you? I mean if you're one of the special 1% I'm sure you'll get used to the changes a lot easier and it won't matter a lot less than for the rest of the 99%. Of all players it should be you who can make the best out of the changes and gets affected the least.

HatchetHaro

Seraphayel wrote: »

HatchetHaro wrote: »

If you don't care about it, then you don't have to care about it, but it doesn't mean we can't care about it either. There is no point in you arguing against the people that the changes affect the most when the changes don't affect you anyway.

The point was and still is that even for those affected the changes are so minimal that all of these in-depth analyzing and calculating seems much more of an overreaction blown out of proportion than reasonable talk. You're right that there's no point in arguing when you barely get affected by them but aren't you just incredibly overestimating how much those changes will affect you? I mean if you're one of the special 1% I'm sure you'll get used to the changes a lot easier and it won't matter a lot less than for the rest of the 99%. Of all players it should be you who can make the best out of the changes and gets affected the least.

It isn't about the changes; it is about the final results, and the final results are that certain races are completely shafted and are no longer viable. Your opinion is that it is minimal, because I can safely assume that you don't raid at my level, and my opinion based on my 3 years of experience in the raiding scene is that it still matters a lot.

I am not overestimating how much these changes will affect me. I have plenty of experience in mathematics and raiding to back me up. I am 100% confident that my predictions on the meta shift, given no additional changes for 4.3.5, will be completely accurate to how people will pick races for their roles.

Here's the thing: I may be a part of this special 1% that has raided and continues to raid seriously, but I can assure you that you have completely overestimated whatever you think I can do with my racial limitations.

Like I've stated in my post, a DPS player can not make up for their race's DPS weaknesses due simply to the fact that they are not able to spare the stats to do so. Whatever end-game DPS are reaching for, that is the absolute maximum they can spec into dealing-damage. So no, you absolutely cannot adapt to being an off-race DPS.

You may think that with my experience I can adapt to playing an off-race DPS and thrive. Here's what I can say: you're not the one that has been removed from core teams simply for playing a race you want; I am. The pressure sucks. I've been in this scene for 3 years and I can assure you that "adapting" is not a thing. They absolutely affect players like me the most.

Seraphayel wrote: »

LightMaster7 wrote: »

I'm very disappointed with the direction of the racial passives. It truly makes my Redguard MagSorcerer worthless as a class.

I guess once the changes drops, it is time to move on. I won't be changing my "race" ***.

How can this even be a complaint when your Redguard MagSorc is definitely better after the changes than before?

"Oh hey your race received this 0.2% buff in a thing they weren't even strong at so you should totally ignore the 5% buffs the other races have received."

xenowarrior92eb17_ESO

ur khajiit changes are a joke sorry...but im so tired of people who keep saying this is 2 op in pve this 2 op in pvp...get over it already. nothing stays the same and it will change at some point so instead of criticism cant you just enjoy the game?

Seraphayel

HatchetHaro wrote: »

Seraphayel wrote: »

HatchetHaro wrote: »

If you don't care about it, then you don't have to care about it, but it doesn't mean we can't care about it either. There is no point in you arguing against the people that the changes affect the most when the changes don't affect you anyway.

The point was and still is that even for those affected the changes are so minimal that all of these in-depth analyzing and calculating seems much more of an overreaction blown out of proportion than reasonable talk. You're right that there's no point in arguing when you barely get affected by them but aren't you just incredibly overestimating how much those changes will affect you? I mean if you're one of the special 1% I'm sure you'll get used to the changes a lot easier and it won't matter a lot less than for the rest of the 99%. Of all players it should be you who can make the best out of the changes and gets affected the least.

It isn't about the changes; it is about the final results, and the final results are that certain races are completely shafted and are no longer viable. Your opinion is that it is minimal, because I can safely assume that you don't raid at my level, and my opinion based on my 3 years of experience in the raiding scene is that it still matters a lot.

I am not overestimating how much these changes will affect me. I have plenty of experience in mathematics and raiding to back me up. I am 100% confident that my predictions on the meta shift, given no additional changes for 4.3.5, will be completely accurate to how people will pick races for their roles.

Here's the thing: I may be a part of this special 1% that has raided and continues to raid seriously, but I can assure you that you have completely overestimated whatever you think I can do with my racial limitations.

Like I've stated in my post, a DPS player can not make up for their race's DPS weaknesses due simply to the fact that they are not able to spare the stats to do so. Whatever end-game DPS are reaching for, that is the absolute maximum they can spec into dealing-damage. So no, you absolutely cannot adapt to being an off-race DPS.

You may think that with my experience I can adapt to playing an off-race DPS and thrive. Here's what I can say: you're not the one that has been removed from core teams simply for playing a race you want; I am. The pressure sucks. I've been in this scene for 3 years and I can assure you that "adapting" is not a thing. They absolutely affect players like me the most.

Reading this makes me sad, not only as a player but also as someone who likes lore, game worlds and everything besides numbers, DPS and competition.

All of what you said makes one thing obvious: not the game is the problem, your community / the communities you played in (and forced you out because of racial choice) are. Which is a shame, to limit one's enjoyment because of sentiments to perform 1% better than others.

If that's the environment you play in and if that's the environment you enjoy to play in I am not the one to judge. But in this case not the game is responsible for the problem(s) caused.

HatchetHaro

Seraphayel wrote: »

HatchetHaro wrote: »

Seraphayel wrote: »

HatchetHaro wrote: »

If you don't care about it, then you don't have to care about it, but it doesn't mean we can't care about it either. There is no point in you arguing against the people that the changes affect the most when the changes don't affect you anyway.

The point was and still is that even for those affected the changes are so minimal that all of these in-depth analyzing and calculating seems much more of an overreaction blown out of proportion than reasonable talk. You're right that there's no point in arguing when you barely get affected by them but aren't you just incredibly overestimating how much those changes will affect you? I mean if you're one of the special 1% I'm sure you'll get used to the changes a lot easier and it won't matter a lot less than for the rest of the 99%. Of all players it should be you who can make the best out of the changes and gets affected the least.

It isn't about the changes; it is about the final results, and the final results are that certain races are completely shafted and are no longer viable. Your opinion is that it is minimal, because I can safely assume that you don't raid at my level, and my opinion based on my 3 years of experience in the raiding scene is that it still matters a lot.

I am not overestimating how much these changes will affect me. I have plenty of experience in mathematics and raiding to back me up. I am 100% confident that my predictions on the meta shift, given no additional changes for 4.3.5, will be completely accurate to how people will pick races for their roles.

Here's the thing: I may be a part of this special 1% that has raided and continues to raid seriously, but I can assure you that you have completely overestimated whatever you think I can do with my racial limitations.

Like I've stated in my post, a DPS player can not make up for their race's DPS weaknesses due simply to the fact that they are not able to spare the stats to do so. Whatever end-game DPS are reaching for, that is the absolute maximum they can spec into dealing-damage. So no, you absolutely cannot adapt to being an off-race DPS.

You may think that with my experience I can adapt to playing an off-race DPS and thrive. Here's what I can say: you're not the one that has been removed from core teams simply for playing a race you want; I am. The pressure sucks. I've been in this scene for 3 years and I can assure you that "adapting" is not a thing. They absolutely affect players like me the most.

Reading this makes me sad, not only as a player but also as someone who likes lore, game worlds and everything besides numbers, DPS and competition.

All of what you said makes one thing obvious: not the game is the problem, your community / the communities you played in (and forced you out because of racial choice) are. Which is a shame, to limit one's enjoyment because of sentiments to perform 1% better than others.

If that's the environment you play in and if that's the environment you enjoy to play in I am not the one to judge. But in this case not the game is responsible for the problem(s) caused.

Here's the thing: respected players are making build guides saying "X race is best for this build", and it trickles down to the casual playerbase where even random pugs in dungeons get harassed about their racial choice.

Fact of the matter is that there will always be a BiS, and players will always find ways to go for that standard, because when added up, they make trials go much quicker and easier. Such is the inherently-competitive nature in the raiding scene, and ultimately it is down to ZOS to make sure the gaps aren't huge so players who play a race for flavor rather than effectiveness aren't completely shafted as well. Unfortunately, those gaps are still way too big in 4.3.4.

I'm down for keeping things lore-friendly; this is an Elder Scrolls game, after all. However, ESO is, right now, the only ES game with any sort of competitive scene built-in, leaderboards included, and when it comes to game balance in relation to competitive PvE and PvP, balance has to take priority.

Strider__Roshin

Solid suggestion for Nords. Unfortunately I think they're going to be a dead race outside of PvE tanking next update.

MaleAmazon

Here's the thing: respected players are making build guides saying "X race is best for this build", and it trickles down to the casual playerbase where even random pugs in dungeons get harassed about their racial choice.

Alas, this is also kind of the community´s fault. Or rather, some people in the community. Also, while I enjoy theorycrafting, seeing the word 'spreadsheet' in an RPG discussion makes me seriously reconsidering continuing to play ESO.

The whole 'racial passives' thing just reinforces my view that they should be removed and replaced with a 'passives pool' you can freely select from. Some people have countered me on this by saying racial passives were always in TES. To which I say - they were single-player, they were often stuff that could be compensated for completely, they were subject to mods - and TES has pretty consistently been going in the direction of starting you as a 'blank slate', which I think is the right thing to do. Why should I at level 1, not knowing anything about the world and running from mudcrabs, be a 'battlemage' with innate racial bonuses that apparently every single member of my particular ethnicity have?!

I , for one, will keep my Nord damage dealers.