DeathHouseInc wrote: »...90% of what?
This is definitely the case with forcing chest locks too. Far too frequently I’m failing 3-4 times in a row to force a simple or intermediate chest at 80-85% chance of success. That’s absurd. It felt like I had better success before I got the last two upgrades.
I've noticed it matters a lot how the eye reticle looks. If it's almost closed then the displayed pickpocketting chance is accurate. If it's more open it decreases and you can get caught even with 95%. So try to wear 7 medium and maybe one of the sets that decreases detect radius like Night Mother's Embrace. Also even if the chance is 100% wait until the chime when the number turns green to press the button. I do get caught sometimes and stack bounty but do that part at the end of the day so my char can log off and clear it until the next day.
I_killed_Vivec wrote: »Silly, it's 90% for 90% of the people who aren't you!
Though to be serious, we all have a skewed view of RNG because we only see our own results. In the time that it took you to make 300 attempts there could have been over 300,000 attempts game-wide, which makes your personal experience insignificant.
Think of it as an allegory for life. You might be an individual, unique, but you are only one of 7 billion on this planet, circling a star that is one of 200 billion in a galaxy, which is one of at least 100 billion galaxies in the visible universe.
Now that's true insignificance. Yet we are all bothered about perceived unfairness in the RNG in a video game...
I_killed_Vivec wrote: »Silly, it's 90% for 90% of the people who aren't you!
Though to be serious, we all have a skewed view of RNG because we only see our own results. In the time that it took you to make 300 attempts there could have been over 300,000 attempts game-wide, which makes your personal experience insignificant.
Think of it as an allegory for life. You might be an individual, unique, but you are only one of 7 billion on this planet, circling a star that is one of 200 billion in a galaxy, which is one of at least 100 billion galaxies in the visible universe.
Now that's true insignificance. Yet we are all bothered about perceived unfairness in the RNG in a video game...
While i totally agree on the human insignificance, what u write above is not how rng works.
A sample of 3 x 100 attempts is a very good mesurement for a 90% chance. "Very unlucky" would be ~50 or 60 failures. The more likely assumption would be, that the light fingers passive isnt working as intended.
FoolishHuman wrote: »Sometimes the NPC turns around just at the moment you want to pickpocket, and since the calculation is server side it might still look like they are looking away on your screen. Also it's possible some other NPC saw you. They also might have come into vision just at the moment you pressed the button.
Mystrius_Archaion wrote: »t's like picking your numbers for the lottery and using the same numbers every drawing. Your chances are correct for the one drawing, but if you choose random numbers every drawing or consider multiple drawings as part of your odds calculations then you introduce a whole multiplier of the variables and thus minimize your odds.
Mystrius_Archaion wrote: »I_killed_Vivec wrote: »Silly, it's 90% for 90% of the people who aren't you!
Though to be serious, we all have a skewed view of RNG because we only see our own results. In the time that it took you to make 300 attempts there could have been over 300,000 attempts game-wide, which makes your personal experience insignificant.
Think of it as an allegory for life. You might be an individual, unique, but you are only one of 7 billion on this planet, circling a star that is one of 200 billion in a galaxy, which is one of at least 100 billion galaxies in the visible universe.
Now that's true insignificance. Yet we are all bothered about perceived unfairness in the RNG in a video game...
While i totally agree on the human insignificance, what u write above is not how rng works.
A sample of 3 x 100 attempts is a very good mesurement for a 90% chance. "Very unlucky" would be ~50 or 60 failures. The more likely assumption would be, that the light fingers passive isnt working as intended.
No, it is working perfectly as intended for a server side RNG calculation.
Your specific pickpocket attempt is only one of thousands of attempts on the servers. So you may have a 90% chance, but the odds of the server side RNG rolling a number in that 10% range of failure is much higher due to your roll actually being 1/1000 or worse. That makes your 10% range actually 100 out of 1000 RNG rolls. If that goes up to 10000 attempts then 10% is 1000 failure rolls. It's not exactly that way, but it essentially is pretty horrible.
You're not the only one picking random numbers from the same RNG. The good numbers may have already been picked by other players.