Take Your RNG and....

Bladefyr

...shove it!

Seriously! 1140 raw clothier materials refined this morning and 2....yes TWO Dreugh Wax. Now, I don't know if you and the game just have something against me, but I'm damned sure that a drop rate/refine rate of .00175% should NEVER happen! When combined with the unicorn (any desirable dungeon/trial weapon) drop rates, it really promotes the "why bother" mindset or even a /rageuninstall.

End rant.

method__01

you should check perfect roe drop rates

Rohamad_Ali

Vimora

I acquired the "why bother" mindset in another game a long time ago and it suits ESO perfectly.

SammyFable

You were just really really REALLY unlucky.

JasonSilverSpring

SammyFable wrote: »

You were just really really REALLY unlucky.

Agreed. I also think people forget that the odds are the same each time. Doing something multiple times does not change the odds. It just gives you more runs at getting lucky.

That being said if I am refining a lot and get no gold upgrade mats I take a break and try again later. It is more psychological than practical, but works for me.

Cryptical

Math wrong. You forgot to move the decimal when converting to a percentage.

0.175%

ereboz

The rng is pretty awful in this game. I've been farming darkshade for months for my netch set. Only need 1 ring and it hasn't dropped at all in the last 15 runs

TequilaFire

The white knights seem to love the RNG.

Cryptical

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

SammyFable wrote: »

You were just really really REALLY unlucky.

Agreed. I also think people forget that the odds are the same each time. Doing something multiple times does not change the odds. It just gives you more runs at getting lucky.

That being said if I am refining a lot and get no gold upgrade mats I take a break and try again later. It is more psychological than practical, but works for me.

While it doesn't change the individual attempt odds, running the set of attempts does change the odds of getting poor results.

OP is basically complaining of getting 998 tails and only 2 heads on 1000 coin flips.
Is it possible? Yes.
Is it likely? Absolutely not.

The whole reason for refining a lot of mats at once is the same reason to flip a coin a lot of times at once - to blunt the impact of negative odds and use large numbers to arrive close to an expected result.

Flip a coin once and if you get the bad result you have won 0% of the time. Refine once and fail to get a wax you have won 0%. But flip a coin 1000 times and statistically you expect to arrive at about 50% wins. Refine 100 times (1000 mats) and you expect to arrive at about 10% wins, getting 10 wax.

To get 2 when statistical numbers should have you getting 10 is a steep drop.

bebynnag

is this a bad place to mention that i got 10 wax sent through the mail today?

Arthg

The odds are 1 gold mat for every 200 raw mats (i.e. refining 20 times).
You should have had 5.7 waxes.
You got two, it is bad luck, but your complaint would be more valid with figures ten times higher than yours.

At some point you'll get gold mats way above the odds, but I doubt you'll come here to celebrate.

Nemesis7884

same with dungeons - i am still convinced to this day that specific item/trait combos are more likely to drop than others - the sheer amount of training and inigorating gear im getting is not even funny anymore

Huyen

Well, to me it seems youre RNG is still better then mine.

Narvuntien

Just go buy what you need from guild stores.

Dungeon drop RNG is one thing which you can't escape.
But you can just buy exactly what you need instead of playing roulete with the refining.

Elsonso

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

SammyFable wrote: »

You were just really really REALLY unlucky.

Agreed. I also think people forget that the odds are the same each time. Doing something multiple times does not change the odds. It just gives you more runs at getting lucky.

That being said if I am refining a lot and get no gold upgrade mats I take a break and try again later. It is more psychological than practical, but works for me.

As a group, we seem to assume that they are using a standard unweighted unchanging drop rate for each random item. We don't know this for sure. If they are using simple random numbers, sure, this is what is going to happen, and there will be streaks of good luck, and streaks of bad luck. If they weight or change these results according to any dynamic criteria then we have no idea what the outcome will be.

Knowing the precise drop rates, and how they are calculated, is not our concern. They don't have to explain it to us, and they are free to change it at any time, without notice.

As RNG is pretty much the only tool in their toolbox, my suspicion is that they have an overly complicated random loot system. It is likely designed to give them finer control over drop rates than a purely random system would allow.

Davor

This is one of the reasons why I don't play much ESO. I am taking a small break from it. Why? I work, and I am dead tired when I get home. I use to play ESO but for some reason it just seems like work. I work all day, I don't want to work when I get home. So I play other games, and spend my money on other games that I can have fun.

Why am I saying this? Just to let Zenimax know why I don't play as often and why they are not getting my money. Not a complaint but thought after reading this, I should say my opinion.

I want to have fun. Working for something over and over again is not my idea of fun.

Trinity_Is_My_Name

Agree. Seems like the drop rate has dropped to almost zero. I haven't gotten a Perfect Roe in over a year. Usually get one gold refined mat per 600 pieces now instead of 100. First time ever in 3 years that I have to actually buy gold mats to improve gear.

Unfadingsilence

Bladefyr wrote: »

...shove it!

Seriously! 1140 raw clothier materials refined this morning and 2....yes TWO Dreugh Wax. Now, I don't know if you and the game just have something against me, but I'm damned sure that a drop rate/refine rate of .00175% should NEVER happen! When combined with the unicorn (any desirable dungeon/trial weapon) drop rates, it really promotes the "why bother" mindset or even a /rageuninstall.

End rant.

I did 300 today and got 7

SHADOW2KK

Funny, I can literally and have done, a number of times, just refine 10/20 raw mats and get gold mats.

RNG truly hates you OP

Tryxus

Should I mention the time I refined about 800 Mats and got 20 Dreugh Wax?

billp_ESO

One professional gambler put his strategy this way:

1) luck runs in streaks, flipping a coin won't give you a head, tail, heads, tails, ... result, there are streaks
2) you can't predict the streaks
3) so, divide your money into 3 piles, and start gambling with one pile
4) if you get into a streak, ie winning, keep going
5) if you start losing, stop at about 1/2 of a pile, and come back later.

Of course, in this case, playing craps, you know exactly what the odds are supposed to be. In ESO, you have no idea what the odds are, or even if the odds are the same one roll to the next. This is ridiculous.

And taking cash for gambling without publishing the odds is probably illegal, or should be.

For that reason, I just play ESO as a game, don't buy gambling crates, and refuse to run some dungeon dozens or 100's of times to beat their unknown RNG algorithm. If I have to do without, so be it.

JasonSilverSpring

This morning I refined 10 silk and 10 leather. I got a dreugh wax for each. Random is random. When it works against you it stings for sure but sometimes it can be very generous. Over time it evens out.

idk

Bladefyr wrote: »

...shove it!

Seriously! 1140 raw clothier materials refined this morning and 2....yes TWO Dreugh Wax. Now, I don't know if you and the game just have something against me, but I'm damned sure that a drop rate/refine rate of .00175% should NEVER happen! When combined with the unicorn (any desirable dungeon/trial weapon) drop rates, it really promotes the "why bother" mindset or even a /rageuninstall.

End rant.

Drop rate is 5% of the refining attempts. So, you were left out of 3-4 Dreugh Wax. I usually refine much large batches and can confirm 5% is pretty much the drop rate.

ParaNostram

RNGsus giveth, RNGsus taketh away. Okay mostly taketh away.

BrightOblivion

The biggest RNG gripe I have right now is in nWGT hunting a divines sash and/or gloves, because not only are there 73 different options for things that drop (3 items, 3 weights, 8 traits each, plus 1 unique), but they also only drops from one boss encounter per run (thank you, whatever designer had the bright idea to just put in one non-pledge boss /s).

I still don't understand why the Scion of Wroth and Iron-Swathed glutton are just giant trash mobs, rather than having been given extra power and raised to mini-boss level, but maybe that's just me.

One of the worst feelings in dungeon farming? When someone gets the item you want, in the trait you want, on a level 13. Truly, it sucks.

Xelrick

I get my wax from daily writs and hireling more than I refined the mats, due to wax has a lower drop rate than Tempers and Raisin.

lagrue

method__01 wrote: »

you should check perfect roe drop rates

REEEEEEEEEE

Those Roe drop rates really know how to give me an aneurism, sometimes I'll get 2 or 3 roe within 50 fish, and then I can cut 400 more fish and get nothing -_-

CardboardedBox

My dreugh wax drops like crazy, so much that I almost keep a neverending supply, but my gold woodworking ones (I don't remember what they're called) are insanely rare. Rare as in only receiving a grand total of 11 within a two year time span...

I almost feel they do that to try to force trading with the community or something.

lagrue

CardboardedBox wrote: »

My dreugh wax drops like crazy, so much that I almost keep a neverending supply, but my gold woodworking ones (I don't remember what they're called) are insanely rare. Rare as in only receiving a grand total of 11 within a two year time span...

I almost feel they do that to try to force trading with the community or something.

I could be wrong, but with my tinfoil hat on, I believe the RNG of yellow mats is influenced by what you have equipped. I tend to get Alloys out the butt - yet I don't use a single piece of gear that uses metal/alloy. The only reason my wax and Rosin have managed to build up is because I finished my yellow gear over a year ago.. even then I have about 20 rosin to sit on. (Which isn't that great for the amount of time it's been building up.)

MLGProPlayer

The drop rate is ~5% for gold upgrade mats. Purple upgrade mats are ~10%.

You should only refine materials when 1 gold mat, 2 purple, and around 150 refined is worth more than 200 raw. Usually, it's only profitable to refine <CP 160 mats and rubedo hide scraps.