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Gold mat refining limit?

Invincible
Invincible
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I spend most of my time farming mats. Mostly ores, cloth, wood and the more expensive alch mats.

When refining ores I usually get a gold temper every 10-15 ores, but last night when I went to the crafting stations to refine my latest batch I had 900 rubedites. I refined them all and only got one temper. For a stack that size I'd usually end up with 4-5.

Is there an invisible cap on how many gold mats of a specific type you can acquire each day? Has this ever happened to anyone else?

When this happened I had already refined about 2000 ores that day.

  • dpencil1
    dpencil1
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    RNJesus is a fickle master. There are no invisible limits, fake resource nodes, or aliens siphoning your mats before you can get them. Just bad luck.
  • Invincible
    Invincible
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    dpencil1 wrote: »
    RNJesus is a fickle master. There are no invisible limits, fake resource nodes, or aliens siphoning your mats before you can get them. Just bad luck.

    Source?

    Curbing gold acquisition to control the in game economy is practiced in almost every game I play.

    Usually I'd chalk it up to bad rng but the last 400 or so didn't produce a single purple, blue or green either. Just a stack of ingots.
  • Reorx_Holybeard
    Reorx_Holybeard
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    Invincible wrote: »
    I spend most of my time farming mats. Mostly ores, cloth, wood and the more expensive alch mats.

    When refining ores I usually get a gold temper every 10-15 ores, but last night when I went to the crafting stations to refine my latest batch I had 900 rubedites. I refined them all and only got one temper. For a stack that size I'd usually end up with 4-5.

    Is there an invisible cap on how many gold mats of a specific type you can acquire each day? Has this ever happened to anyone else?

    When this happened I had already refined about 2000 ores that day.

    Chance to get a gold Temper is around 5% per refine so for 900 ores (90 refines) the chance to obtain no gold Temper is 1% (0.95^90). So a low chance but one you'd expect players to encounter relatively often in a game played by millions.

    Edited by Reorx_Holybeard on June 16, 2017 1:36PM
    Reorx Holybeard -- NA/PC
    Founder/Admin of www.uesp.net -- UESP ESO Guilds
    Creator of the "Best" ESO Build Editor
    I'm on a quest to build the world's toughest USB drive!
  • Invincible
    Invincible
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    Invincible wrote: »
    I spend most of my time farming mats. Mostly ores, cloth, wood and the more expensive alch mats.

    When refining ores I usually get a gold temper every 10-15 ores, but last night when I went to the crafting stations to refine my latest batch I had 900 rubedites. I refined them all and only got one temper. For a stack that size I'd usually end up with 4-5.

    Is there an invisible cap on how many gold mats of a specific type you can acquire each day? Has this ever happened to anyone else?

    When this happened I had already refined about 2000 ores that day.

    Change to get a gold Temper is around 5% per refine so for 900 ores (90 refines) the chance to obtain no gold Temper is 1% (0.95^90). So a low chance but one you'd expect players to encounter relatively often in a game played by millions.

    Source?
  • Reorx_Holybeard
    Reorx_Holybeard
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    @he
    Invincible wrote: »
    Invincible wrote: »
    I spend most of my time farming mats. Mostly ores, cloth, wood and the more expensive alch mats.

    When refining ores I usually get a gold temper every 10-15 ores, but last night when I went to the crafting stations to refine my latest batch I had 900 rubedites. I refined them all and only got one temper. For a stack that size I'd usually end up with 4-5.

    Is there an invisible cap on how many gold mats of a specific type you can acquire each day? Has this ever happened to anyone else?

    When this happened I had already refined about 2000 ores that day.

    Change to get a gold Temper is around 5% per refine so for 900 ores (90 refines) the chance to obtain no gold Temper is 1% (0.95^90). So a low chance but one you'd expect players to encounter relatively often in a game played by millions.

    Source?

    There have been a bunch of people over the years. There's this post from @helediron which is a year old but I can't find his more recent stats (the chance doesn't change much).
    Reorx Holybeard -- NA/PC
    Founder/Admin of www.uesp.net -- UESP ESO Guilds
    Creator of the "Best" ESO Build Editor
    I'm on a quest to build the world's toughest USB drive!
  • SirAndy
    SirAndy
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    Do a search here, temper drops aren't actually real RNG, they are programmatically filtered and weighted by a sine wave style function.

    This has been known since beta.

    Source: The SEARCH button

    :smile:
  • helediron
    helediron
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    @he
    Invincible wrote: »
    Invincible wrote: »
    I spend most of my time farming mats. Mostly ores, cloth, wood and the more expensive alch mats.

    When refining ores I usually get a gold temper every 10-15 ores, but last night when I went to the crafting stations to refine my latest batch I had 900 rubedites. I refined them all and only got one temper. For a stack that size I'd usually end up with 4-5.

    Is there an invisible cap on how many gold mats of a specific type you can acquire each day? Has this ever happened to anyone else?

    When this happened I had already refined about 2000 ores that day.

    Change to get a gold Temper is around 5% per refine so for 900 ores (90 refines) the chance to obtain no gold Temper is 1% (0.95^90). So a low chance but one you'd expect players to encounter relatively often in a game played by millions.

    Source?

    There have been a bunch of people over the years. There's this post from @helediron which is a year old but I can't find his more recent stats (the chance doesn't change much).
    I think i haven't posted new numbers since the drop rate has been stable so long time. After each patch i make a sample refinery to check the rate. Looking my latest numbers from Wardenfell PTS i got 4.9% drop rate, which is very close to the 5.1% long term average.

    That latest test used 30,000 materials, 10k each type. The long term average is based on 400,000 materials.
    On hiatus. PC,EU,AD - crafting completionist - @helediron 900+ cp, @helestor 1000+ cp, @helestar 800+ cp, @helester 700+ cp - Dragonborn Z Suomikilta, Harrods, Master Crafter. - Blog - Crafthouse: all stations, all munduses, all dummies, open to everyone
  • Nestor
    Nestor
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    Some days it just pays to walk away from the crafting table.
    Enjoy the game, life is what you really want to be worried about.

    PakKat "Everything was going well, until I died"
    Gary Gravestink "I am glad you died, I needed the help"

  • Theodard
    Theodard
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    Sadly I tend to do better with ore than with cloth refining. Much better usually.
  • helediron
    helediron
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    Nestor wrote: »
    Some days it just pays to walk away from the crafting table.
    Ah, the trick question is WHICH day... :mrgreen:
    On hiatus. PC,EU,AD - crafting completionist - @helediron 900+ cp, @helestor 1000+ cp, @helestar 800+ cp, @helester 700+ cp - Dragonborn Z Suomikilta, Harrods, Master Crafter. - Blog - Crafthouse: all stations, all munduses, all dummies, open to everyone
  • ninti
    ninti
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    SirAndy wrote: »
    Do a search here, temper drops aren't actually real RNG, they are programmatically filtered and weighted by a sine wave style function.

    This has been known since beta.

    Source: The SEARCH button

    :smile:

    Um, no. That's just not true at all. Stop trolling.
    Edited by ninti on June 16, 2017 10:23PM
  • disintegr8
    disintegr8
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    I think you are crazy refining that many ores for only one temper.
    Nestor wrote: »
    Some days it just pays to walk away from the crafting table.

    As somewhat of a reformed gambler I adhere to a policy of stopping once the return rate is too low and coming back another day to try again. If I get to 150-200 ores refined without a temper, I stop. If I get 1 inside the first 100-150 and I go another 150 without a second one, I stop.

    I expect a temper about every 100-150 ores on average. If the return rate drops too low you get to a point where it is impossible to actually 'break even' as the saying goes and if you keep going you are just wasting good raw material.

    I have no 'source' and don't care if the drop rate is programmed or true RNG but refining 900 ores in a row for 1 temper is craziness.
    Australian on PS4 NA server.
    Everyone's entitled to an opinion.
  • helediron
    helediron
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    Invincible wrote: »
    I spend most of my time farming mats. Mostly ores, cloth, wood and the more expensive alch mats.

    When refining ores I usually get a gold temper every 10-15 ores, but last night when I went to the crafting stations to refine my latest batch I had 900 rubedites. I refined them all and only got one temper. For a stack that size I'd usually end up with 4-5.

    Is there an invisible cap on how many gold mats of a specific type you can acquire each day? Has this ever happened to anyone else?

    When this happened I had already refined about 2000 ores that day.
    My biggest documented batch i have ever refined was 52,500 mats and it had 5.2% drop rate. So no, there is no upper limit.
    On hiatus. PC,EU,AD - crafting completionist - @helediron 900+ cp, @helestor 1000+ cp, @helestar 800+ cp, @helester 700+ cp - Dragonborn Z Suomikilta, Harrods, Master Crafter. - Blog - Crafthouse: all stations, all munduses, all dummies, open to everyone
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