When will ESO die out?

FoulSnowpaw

1-2 years

itscompton wrote: »

lordrichter wrote: »

OrphanHelgen wrote: »

Last two patches have been the most complained patches I have seen. Many endgamers quitting.

New end-gamers take their place. These will be people who grow up in the game.

The biggest issue with end-game these days isn't people leaving, it is that ZOS has made decisions that make it more difficult to transition to it. A lot of these decisions were actually intended for the end-game players, and I think it was done at the expense of everyone else. What I see when I look at the game is people leaving before they get to the end-game, simply because it looks like an impassible mountain. It doesn't block everyone, but it certainly shortens the game for what I have to consider might be the majority of the players.

You are correct in that the learning/power curve in the game turns off many new players. In the nearly three years I played it was actually pretty stunning how many people quit the game within a month of trying it for the first time. Even with experienced players in our guild willing to craft armor, explain mechanics, and run content with the newbies it was still too much for them. And there's the rub. If current end gamers leave then new players don't have anyone to turn to for help making it up that mountain and the end game population will continue shrinking. Just remember those previously dedicated end game players who are leaving had more invested in the success of the game and so were much more motivated to try to bring in and help retain new players than the casuals replacing them who will likely pick up the game for a month or two then move on.

So true!

Reason for 1-2 years: Each major patch seems to favor nerfing. Nerfing is bad. Nerf makes game harder. Nerf discourage.

Peekachu99

5-6 years

"Next Major Patch"? I mean, confirmation bias much? Why even include that as an option unless you're fishing for specific validation?

Game get older, loose players and eventually get passed over for the new shininess. Usual product cycles for MMORPGS are 5-10 years before they're so archaic that people move on. That's the correct answer.

Insomnia rex

Uh oh spaghettios, tomorrow

Right after EVE has died

I'm not holding my breath.

Cherryblossom

5-6 years

I've said 5-6 years,

However if Morrowind is nothing more than a DLC like Wrothgar, then the chapter after better be good or it may destroy the game.

Duiwel

5-6 years

AlienSlof

Never

Never, I hope. I enjoy this game very much, and it gives me plenty to do now I'm retired.

NecroEnzo

3-4 years

In it's current incarnation, I give it a few more years.

This is based on the fact that there are MMOS like Camelot Unchained, and Ashes of Creation (which uses unreal 4) coming out that cater to the MMO community that currently jumps from game to game like myself.

While this behavior should indicate to studios that the methods they employ to attract gamers are unsuccessful (especially at retention), instead they only notice that the activity ebbs and flows, with major content bringing back players, which they eventually lose, and then blame their poor retention on the "nature of the market".

The two MMOs that I mention, especially Ashes of Creation, have a huge potential to retain players and keep them busy rather than a RNG grind with vertical gear-based content progression that burns people out pretty quickly. If something like that comes about and disrupts the ebb and flow, essentially drying up the playerbase for all the EQ clones, the companies that finance those clones will have to adapt or shut down. There may be a lot of loyal customers, or people who just invested so much that they don't want to risk doing it again, but everything I've seen in all the MMOs I've played indicate that the developers notice when retention is so poor. What usually follows are events like double xp/free items/exclusive content/new content, and anything else to gain new players or bolster the ones who kept playing. My hypothesis is, if something like this "new chapter" hit, but the product failed to achieve the intended result, the studio would be forced to take a radical approach.

You can see this phenomena in action in this very game. It was released, was subscriber based, but because it offered nothing new, and didn't even offer the base-line quality gamers expect from a MMORPG, it went free to play.

Basically we've got some winners coming up, who will replace the losers who keep doing the same thing over and over, blaming everything else rather than taking the proactive route.

However, this doesn't mean that I predict the game will die; it's current incarnation will die. Then, the development will change to copy, mutate, and extend what ESO has to offer. They'll still call it ESO, but it won't be an Everquest clone anymore.

They could also shut down. I was pretty shocked to see what happened with Everquest Next and Landmark, but it's evidence that these financial institutions that fuel the game industry have a huge amount of power over the studios, and they have little understanding about gaming or gamers. It's all about risk and probability with them, and rather than invest in blind potential, they want something that has made money before, hence all the clones. Really, trying to talk to some of the suits is frustrating. You can make an entire presentation with all kinds of evidence, charts, and factors to show why a product should take a different direction that results in more profit, and all they will respond with is "That's not being done by Activision/Blizzard... they still make the most money, we should continue trying to do what they do".

This is why developers themselves have been praying for a WoW-killer. That game literally dictates what they get to do.

/endrant

Dracindo

Never

I believe in the power of positive thinking.

David_Zarn

Uh oh spaghettios, tomorrow

Obvious.

Absolut_Turkey

Never

If games like WoW, SWOTR, and LOTRO can last as long they have, then ESO has nothing to worry about. And "no", BDO coming to consoles isn't going to change that. The game is definitely pretty, but at its core, it's just another grind-heavy Korean mmo.

mewcatus

5-6 years

I honestly hope never, but even if ESO does die, I hope they put out a single player version of this with multiplayer online options. I love the combat feel.

MagnusBlackmane

Never

I'm optimistic so... "Never". Elder Scrolls in general have too big of a fan base to let the game die too quickly. There could be a decline in server population when/if Elder Scroll 6 comes out, but that's probably still a few years away.

Axoinus

Sunset will come when management wants to invest the resources into something else.

Sakiri

RealHeadhonchoe wrote: »

Rohamad_Ali wrote: »

Even bad MMOs are getting 10 year runs these days . Some even longer . There's no way to say how long a good title will last . Not in the foreseeable future would be best option .

10 years oh boy, totally forgot about games like world of Warcraft that been out like 12 years??

Going on 14.

Everquest is 18.

candesco

I'm a relative new player myself. Only play now for a couple of weeks after playing the free steam weekend during easter. Then decided to buy the gold edition, retail version then. It has indeed a bit of a steep learning curve. But what frustrates me most is that you seem to be on your own as a newbie. No one is willing to help or form groups with you. It plays like a singleplayer game. The guilds who are there are rather closed. Now i'm in one after a while, but it seems to be a trade guild. The dungeons they seem to do are all high levelled. They have answered my questions so far though. Still, it feels pretty lonely. And that is also a problem with this game. Newbies don't get help and you don't help them by answerring their questions alone and nothing more. Now i don't say you have to hold their hands, but putting them in the right direction and team up with them when required would help alot. And i don't see that. Also, the chatchannel is kinda quiet, which ain't help also. The only thing you will see frequently is about the price of an item. If this continues in this way, then the game would probably die sooner then expected. The long time players should be more open and more willing to help the newer ones instead of being closed.

SnubbS

1-2 years

Drachenfier wrote: »

BDO pc servers are dead, why would a console release matter? Nobody plays it

Because console players will drift more towards the skill-based, fast-paced BDO gameplay. A ton of players came to ESO for the Elder Scrolls part—and only stayed on because they figured out that they liked playing MMOs. That pool of players—that's the pool that BDO will draw from on console, and that pool massive.

Sausage

5-6 years

Currently, I cant simply see it, until next major MMORPG comes.

zaria

Uh oh spaghettios, tomorrow

candesco wrote: »

I'm a relative new player myself. Only play now for a couple of weeks after playing the free steam weekend during easter. Then decided to buy the gold edition, retail version then. It has indeed a bit of a steep learning curve. But what frustrates me most is that you seem to be on your own as a newbie. No one is willing to help or form groups with you. It plays like a singleplayer game. The guilds who are there are rather closed. Now i'm in one after a while, but it seems to be a trade guild. The dungeons they seem to do are all high levelled. They have answered my questions so far though. Still, it feels pretty lonely. And that is also a problem with this game. Newbies don't get help and you don't help them by answerring their questions alone and nothing more. Now i don't say you have to hold their hands, but putting them in the right direction and team up with them when required would help alot. And i don't see that. Also, the chatchannel is kinda quiet, which ain't help also. The only thing you will see frequently is about the price of an item. If this continues in this way, then the game would probably die sooner then expected. The long time players should be more open and more willing to help the newer ones instead of being closed.

Solution here is to dump guilds and get in some better ones. You can be in 5 so dump the worst ones and join new.
And trade guilds is primary for trading even if they are also used for looking for group, not to be social.
As an new player you hardly need an trading guild at all, its not the guild you are looking for.

candesco

zaria wrote: »

candesco wrote: »

I'm a relative new player myself. Only play now for a couple of weeks after playing the free steam weekend during easter. Then decided to buy the gold edition, retail version then. It has indeed a bit of a steep learning curve. But what frustrates me most is that you seem to be on your own as a newbie. No one is willing to help or form groups with you. It plays like a singleplayer game. The guilds who are there are rather closed. Now i'm in one after a while, but it seems to be a trade guild. The dungeons they seem to do are all high levelled. They have answered my questions so far though. Still, it feels pretty lonely. And that is also a problem with this game. Newbies don't get help and you don't help them by answerring their questions alone and nothing more. Now i don't say you have to hold their hands, but putting them in the right direction and team up with them when required would help alot. And i don't see that. Also, the chatchannel is kinda quiet, which ain't help also. The only thing you will see frequently is about the price of an item. If this continues in this way, then the game would probably die sooner then expected. The long time players should be more open and more willing to help the newer ones instead of being closed.

Solution here is to dump guilds and get in some better ones. You can be in 5 so dump the worst ones and join new.
And trade guilds is primary for trading even if they are also used for looking for group, not to be social.
As an new player you hardly need an trading guild at all, its not the guild you are looking for.

And where do you find one if they all are so closed. That is the problem. By the way; i was invited first to a little guild as soon as i left the prison. However, that guild was just silent, so i left that one. Then over in the chat it happened then i got an inventation to the one where i'm in now. They seem to be social trade guild, not solely trading. You say now that new players don't need a trading guild. How does a new player know that if nothing is told. Also, on some websites it is stated that you should join a trading guild, even as new player.

Drachenfier wrote: »

BDO pc servers are dead, why would a console release matter? Nobody plays it

They aren't dead. But in the week it's more quiet then in the weekends. And some channels are less crowded. BDO have seen better days yes, especially with the launch. Though i have the feeling there are more players coming and some guilds are reviving as well, like levithian. I'm a long time BDO player myself, playing since the second closed beta. Bought the conqueror pre-order pack then. But what has BDO to do with ESO?

zaria

Uh oh spaghettios, tomorrow

candesco wrote: »

zaria wrote: »

candesco wrote: »

I'm a relative new player myself. Only play now for a couple of weeks after playing the free steam weekend during easter. Then decided to buy the gold edition, retail version then. It has indeed a bit of a steep learning curve. But what frustrates me most is that you seem to be on your own as a newbie. No one is willing to help or form groups with you. It plays like a singleplayer game. The guilds who are there are rather closed. Now i'm in one after a while, but it seems to be a trade guild. The dungeons they seem to do are all high levelled. They have answered my questions so far though. Still, it feels pretty lonely. And that is also a problem with this game. Newbies don't get help and you don't help them by answerring their questions alone and nothing more. Now i don't say you have to hold their hands, but putting them in the right direction and team up with them when required would help alot. And i don't see that. Also, the chatchannel is kinda quiet, which ain't help also. The only thing you will see frequently is about the price of an item. If this continues in this way, then the game would probably die sooner then expected. The long time players should be more open and more willing to help the newer ones instead of being closed.

Solution here is to dump guilds and get in some better ones. You can be in 5 so dump the worst ones and join new.
And trade guilds is primary for trading even if they are also used for looking for group, not to be social.
As an new player you hardly need an trading guild at all, its not the guild you are looking for.

And where do you find one if they all are so closed. That is the problem. By the way; i was invited first to a little guild as soon as i left the prison. However, that guild was just silent, so i left that one. Then over in the chat it happened then i got an inventation to the one where i'm in now. They seem to be social trade guild, not solely trading. You say now that new players don't need a trading guild. How does a new player know that if nothing is told. Also, on some websites it is stated that you should join a trading guild, even as new player.

Yes an trade guild is nice to have but not needed at low level as its pretty social its ok.
That you have an active core in guild who only do high level content is an issue in many guilds today.
However you might not be the only one, ask if someone want to do normal easier dungeons and its good chance you get plenty of response in prime time.

candesco

zaria wrote: »

candesco wrote: »

zaria wrote: »

candesco wrote: »

I'm a relative new player myself. Only play now for a couple of weeks after playing the free steam weekend during easter. Then decided to buy the gold edition, retail version then. It has indeed a bit of a steep learning curve. But what frustrates me most is that you seem to be on your own as a newbie. No one is willing to help or form groups with you. It plays like a singleplayer game. The guilds who are there are rather closed. Now i'm in one after a while, but it seems to be a trade guild. The dungeons they seem to do are all high levelled. They have answered my questions so far though. Still, it feels pretty lonely. And that is also a problem with this game. Newbies don't get help and you don't help them by answerring their questions alone and nothing more. Now i don't say you have to hold their hands, but putting them in the right direction and team up with them when required would help alot. And i don't see that. Also, the chatchannel is kinda quiet, which ain't help also. The only thing you will see frequently is about the price of an item. If this continues in this way, then the game would probably die sooner then expected. The long time players should be more open and more willing to help the newer ones instead of being closed.

Solution here is to dump guilds and get in some better ones. You can be in 5 so dump the worst ones and join new.
And trade guilds is primary for trading even if they are also used for looking for group, not to be social.
As an new player you hardly need an trading guild at all, its not the guild you are looking for.

And where do you find one if they all are so closed. That is the problem. By the way; i was invited first to a little guild as soon as i left the prison. However, that guild was just silent, so i left that one. Then over in the chat it happened then i got an inventation to the one where i'm in now. They seem to be social trade guild, not solely trading. You say now that new players don't need a trading guild. How does a new player know that if nothing is told. Also, on some websites it is stated that you should join a trading guild, even as new player.

Yes an trade guild is nice to have but not needed at low level as its pretty social its ok.
That you have an active core in guild who only do high level content is an issue in many guilds today.
However you might not be the only one, ask if someone want to do normal easier dungeons and its good chance you get plenty of response in prime time.

If it's an issue in many guilds, then they should change that. But probably due to being selfish it's not gonna happen. And there is the problem then and also the cause new players quit. I don't know if i get response if i ask for a normal dungeon. But one can try.

Bislobo

Never

I enjoy playing it now, so i don't worry about the future.

Skayaq

5-6 years

I voted 5-6, but It will likely be around for at least another 10-12 years.

Lysette

5-6 years

It will last for a long time, simply because it is Elder Scrolls, and as long as ZOS is not making a series of huge mistakes, it will have it's audience - I chose 5-6 years, because I think, it has not even reached it's peak yet and will attract a lot more with Morrowind - especially those, who did not try it yet, but have played Morrowind in the past - to me it is similar, Morrowind was my first big video game and since then I am hooked on Elder Scrolls and Bethesda games - first I did not have an urge to try Morrowind again, due to that I am not happy with ZOS and their RNG crates - but then again, Morrowind has been part of my life and when I saw that video about Morrowind, well, nostalgia got me - and so I guess, this will happen to many, who refused so far to play ESO - they will test it and nostalgia will get them.

schroed360

"Other" ESO died brutaly in march 2015 with the initial and real vision of what was supposed to last at least five year.

Since then what we have been playing was ESO : TU , then ESO OT next ESO morrowind .

Wifeaggro13

Next major patch

RealHeadhonchoe wrote: »

Just wondering when you guys will think this game won't be relevant?

it's already dying out. it's just a constant churn of people who never actually play the whole game.

hmsdragonfly

3-4 years

If they don't fix PvP before the next major update, I am sure the remaining of the PvP community will leave. We need skill-based competitive PvP.

Ballzy321

Next major patch

I give it until next console mmo comes out.

MyKillv2.0

Die out? Guess would be a long time from now.

ESO has a few major issues on the horizon, though distant horizon. ESO VI will hurt the game since ESO games are so great at replayable, it won't be like when games like Witcher/MassEffect release and the game suffers for a couple weeks tops. The other major event for the game will be when new generation consoles are released. Both are a few years away, and even if ESO became PC only, the game could survive for a long time.

Asardes

5-6 years

Depends what you mean by "die out". I'm relatively new to MMOs but I've heard of examples some pretty ancient ones still scraping by after almost 20 years of existence. Probably "dying out" in this case means dwindling player base, no content being developed and so on. Such a game may still live on long past its prime, just like the others out there. There will probably be no server shutdown, but the company may be sold out by the parent as it becomes less profitable, staff cut, development and maintenance subcontracted out and generally the game left to decay to a point where it becomes irrelevant, F2P or not.

I'm by no means a top player and I may never become one, but after 19 months of playing every day I feel a certain fatigue taking hold. I feel that I've hit a ceiling which I cannot climb above, or not without significant, and potentially destructive effort - some recent setbacks have made me want to delete all my characters and destroy all my gear. Simply connecting to the game becomes a chore and I do it just to please others because I've promised them I'd run this or that content with them. There are more and more days I feel really burned out and cannot even reach that ceiling. I'm sometimes amazed and ashamed of how badly I actually play in such days and I feel I'm letting people down. As a result I may well have to quit the game partially or totally within a few months, even if it becomes better overall. I suspect my story is not unique and many players feel the same as me, simply grinded down by the sheer attrition of farming gear, training new chars, learning new mechanics and play styles, and being punished for not adapting to new content and ever shifting "meta". A game begins to go down the slope when the attrition rate of old players becomes higher than the pull factor on the new ones.

To me the death of the game becomes as irrelevant as the death of the Sun, because I will become dead to it long before.